Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[Off the Mark]

OK, well, J-man's investigation most likely isn't going to reveal scum, since it is the sanity test on Zeek. At best, it will show that either Zeek or J-man is lying, but nothing will be certain.

So I'm going to share what I know.

I'm a roleblocker. My role is "Revenge Business Cartman" from 616. I smear crap all over people's houses and then they have to clean it up all night instead of performing their night actions. I blocked Ryan last night and I may have blocked the scum kill.

I breadcrumbed my role in post 324, when we were talking about breadcrumbs.

I did a reread of this whole stinkin' game last night and I think Estes and Sorin both as scum makes the most sense. Overall, though, I gotta say...

B

oy,

l

ot

o

f

c

razy

k

ids in this game. I'm guessing most of you are in high school/college? I am an old man.

So I feel this a pretty good lead. Now it's possible that scum tried to kill a doc-protected townie, which is likely if they tried to go after a cop, but I still feel this is worth sharing. I realize I set myself up as a possible nightkill target by claiming, but my role is not one of the stronger ones, so I think scum will continue to go for the cops or the doc.

FOS: Ryan

[ryan]

Hold on a second. I don't like this post one bit, you are basically saying that because you blocked me the kill didn't go through? Who's to say I had a night action? Seems pretty convenient you'd come out with this info BEFORE J-Man's investigation results.

[Estes]

OtM:

Maybe?

[Estes]

EBWOP: That's even funnier after looking at his avatar.

[Off the Mark]

Hold on a second. I don't like this post one bit, you are basically saying that because you blocked me the kill didn't go through? Who's to say I had a night action? Seems pretty convenient you'd come out with this info BEFORE J-Man's investigation results.

Of course you don't like it. Got any strategy reason why you don't like it, or is it simply because it is evidence against you?

And what do you think I'm trying to pull by revealing this before J-man's result? I explained why I didn't wait. How is that "convenient"? Are you trying to imply that J-man and I are scum partners or something?

You're caught, Ryan. That response sucked.

[Off the Mark]

Estes, LOL!!

[ryan]

Hold on a second. I don't like this post one bit, you are basically saying that because you blocked me the kill didn't go through? Who's to say I had a night action? Seems pretty convenient you'd come out with this info BEFORE J-Man's investigation results.

Of course you don't like it. Got any strategy reason why you don't like it, or is it simply because it is evidence against you?

And what do you think I'm trying to pull by revealing this before J-man's result? I explained why I didn't wait. How is that "convenient"? Are you trying to imply that J-man and I are scum partners or something?

You're caught, Ryan. That response sucked.

That's exactly what I'm implying. To me it seems like you are trying to deflect attention away from you (and your partner) and shift it on to me. If you were a cop and you investigated me and found me to be guilty (which you wouldn't because I'm not) I'd be caught, correct, but you are saying you roleblocked me and saved somebody, and that just isn't true, I didn't attempt to kill anyone last night, that's not part of my role. I'll wait for J-Man, but if necessary I have no problems claiming to show my innocence and I can't say I'm a big fan of a wild accusation with no evidence.

[Off the Mark]

I'm surprised you are taking the tactic of "You must be scum who is false-claiming." That's what seems shady to me right now. Isn't it much more likely, if I am wrong, that what really happened was an unfortunate coincidence that the scum kill was blocked somehow and I blocked you? If you were innocent, that is the direction I would expect you to take.

But no, you've brought out a "you must be scum with J-man" OMGUS attack, which doesn't make any sense. J-man still needs to share his result, and even if he is scum, it will be very hard to tell based solely on his claimed investigation result. If I were scum, I gain nothing at this point by coming forward before J-man.

[ryan]

OtM: The number of "claims" in this game have me very suspicious of quite a few people.

[Off the Mark]

Funny, you didn't even consider the merits of my claim, or check out the episode or anything. You just dismissed it. If I was scum, then my claim would be fake, which means you'd want to investigate it. But since you know I'm NOT scum, and my claim is legit, you didn't bother. Face it. You're caught.

[ryan]

I've already admitted to not being a South Park daily watcher so I'd have to rely on Wikipedia as far as what happens in certain episodes. You seem to be the one being very defensive about your claim. You through out that you blocked my kill last night when unless you were scum, you wouldn't know what happened in the game last night either. I'm caught? Looks like you might be the one doing some backtracking here. I never said I didn't want you investigated, but I also don't know if we have sane cops or what we have. Estes seems to think Dean is innocent, via his investigation. How do we know you weren't blocked last night and you are trying to deflect why your kill didn't happen? I'm not going to out my role for one person with suspicion, but nice try.

[Gatorguy91]

I'll put an

FoS on Ryan

for now, but i remember mathcam doing something like that being a mafia roleblocker..

[ryan]

I'll put an

FoS on Ryan

for now, but i remember mathcam doing something like that being a mafia roleblocker..

mathcam?

[Off the Mark]

vote: ryan

Mafia Roleblockers are quite rare. I am not one. It should be clear from the Day 1 discussion that I am town.

[Off the Mark]

Oh also I wanted to comment on the lynch scene. Since Stewie said something about the way Cartman looks, I'm guessing that upon his death, Zeek will appear to be anti-town, and then we'd find out his true role (whether it's scum or miller) in the morning. I'm guessing Zeek's role is the whole reason for that game mechanic. There could be other roles like that too, like maybe a Godfather that will investigate as town AND will appear town during the death scene? Just speculating here.

[ryan]

vote: ryan

Mafia Roleblockers are quite rare. I am not one.

It should be clear from the Day 1 discussion that I am town

.

WIFOM

That is by far the biggest attempt to get emotion on your side. And scum could have breadcrumbed in this game to look innocent, we enough suspects right now to safely say this setup is beyond any other games we've played. Talk about somebody dismissing a possibility. You ripped me for dismissing your claim yet you totally dismiss a mafia roleblocker in this game.

[ryan]

Three people have commented on Day 2, where is the rest of the game? Dean? J-Man? Sorin? Zeek? Anyone care to discuss what happened or didn't happen during the night phase?

[Gatorguy91]

Where the f*ck is J-man?

[ryan]

J-Man is going to clear up a little of this discussion, but OtM needs to own some of his reactions today

[ZeekLTK]

Night took so long I stopped checking the thread that often, so I didn't notice Day 2 started...

Boo yah. I called it: Chaos as mafia.

But okay... so Sorin was a vigilante? And we lynched him... so who killed a mafia during the night?

I guess there is a serial killer then?

Sorin is back, as earwig, correct? I'm going to refer to that as "earwig" for the remainder of the post to not confuse anyone with what Sorin did with his old role. Speaking of which, is he allowed to tell us anything about his previous role?

Also, I don't understand why role blocking one person would make the mafia not be able to kill. If ryan is mafia and is blocked, then couldn't the other mafia still kill whoever? Or was there only 2 mafia?

To me, I think the most likely thing is that the mafia tried to kill one of the cops and picked the same one that the doctor picked.


Let's see... we have:

For Sure:
2 masons (both died first night)
1 vig (Sorin)
1 mafia (Chaos)

Claimed:
1 miller (me)
2 "cops" (j-man and Estes)
1 "roleblocker" (Off The Mark)

Not Claimed:
1 doctor (???)
1 serial killer (???)
1 mafia (???)
1 unknown (???)

So that leaves earwig, Gatorguy, Dean, and ryan with unknown (or at least unclaimed) roles.

There has to be at least one more mafia, there is most likely a serial killer, and there is most likely a doctor. So that leaves 1 role we don't know. Is it a third mafia? A third mason? A tracker? Something else I'm not thinking of?

Dean's thing about music... Estes can you elaborate? Maybe if we can figure out that role it'll help tremendously.

And I'd really like to hear from j-man about what he got when he investigated me...

[ZeekLTK]

We should look back at Chaos throughout the first day and try to pick up his scumbuddies. Here are a few things that immediately stick out to me when looking over my *long* post on page 11...

When j-man claimed, with sanity issues, Chaos was quick to vote for Gatorguy. The ONLY other person who voted for Gatorguy during that time was Off The Mark...

Also, on page 6 Estes summarized the game so far as "Zeek & ryan vs OTM & Chaos”

Well, Chaos was mafia...

----------

After that post:

Sorin said Chaos and Estes were "least likely to be scum" (turns out Chaos WAS scum... but we know Sorin wasn't so this probably doesn't help us much)

I said to investigate Chaos and ryan, on post #321, tried to spin that and said "investigate Estes instead"...

Two posts later ryan says he doesn't have a read on Chaos.

OTM puts Chaos in the spot light for contradicting himself previously (post #326, read it yourselves, hard to explain).

I again call for Chaos to be investigated in #329

OTM points out that Chaos was defending Estes in a post (OTM's post is #338)

Sorin posts his "list" where Chaos has "+-" (#348)

I again call for Chaos to be "looked into" (#402)

Chaos somewhat defends my "attack" on Estes (#409)

Chaos helped lynch Sorin... others on that bandwagon: me, j-man, ryan, Off the Mark, and Gatorguy


So anyone want to add to that about what they noticed from Chaos on Day 1?

[ryan]

Zeek: Everyone that voted is guilty of lynching Sorin BUT I always look at votes and if they were placed opportunistic. That is what we might want to look at.

[ZeekLTK]

I know, I was just pointing it out.

And from my experience in past games, usually the mafia do NOT all vote for the same person. So, only 3 people that are still alive did not vote for Sorin: Estes, Dean, and earwig...

earwig is still suspicious to me from his vote on j-man and then he basically went AWOL so everyone stopped talking about him. Maybe we should lynch Sorin again and we'll get it right this time?

[Off the Mark]

Also, I don't understand why role blocking one person would make the mafia not be able to kill. If ryan is mafia and is blocked, then couldn't the other mafia still kill whoever? Or was there only 2 mafia?

This varies by game. The two most common ways to manage this are

1) the scum pick someone to go kill and if that scum is blocked then the kill does not take place

2) if there are 2 remaining scum, and I block a scum, then my block has a 50% chance of success - determined by random.org

Another possibility:

3) whichever scum sends the mod the PM with the NK choice, they are the one doing the "kill" and if I block them, then I am successful

Ryan's responses are further cementing him as scum in my mind. I'll build a case using only his Day 1 behavior if you'd like, so you can see why I chose to block him in the first place. I don't have time for that now though.

[ryan]

Ya know what OtM, you’ve blasted me a few times in Day 2 for not believing your claim and saying that my respones are proving me scum? Shall we revisit what you said after Estes claimed cop and that Sorin was innocent

306

^^^ don't believe it at all. Waaayyy too convenient. You just happened to pick Sorin to investigate? And if you are telling the truth we have an insane cop and a real cop? I don't think so. We'll lynch you when Sorin comes up scum.

Or how about this “WTF” statement

Where's your breadcrumb of Sorin? Without a breadcrumb, there's no way we can believe the claim.

Not bread crumbing doesn’t mean you aren’t who you say you are. Than very conveniently just 16 posts later we get this

Estes, if you are telling the truth, then I apologize in advance. But you gotta see how this looks like way too big of a coincidence to trust in. Sorin says he trusts you, you both look pretty scummy, then you come out and say you have an innocent investigation on him when he is about to be lynched. I just can't buy that.

Hey, if we lynch him and he comes up town, at least we can confirm your sanity. I think the best move is still to lynch Sorin.

Ah yes, the scum apologizing IF Estes is telling the truth (no reason to think he isn’t yet you seem ultra sure that J-Man is telling the truth, interesting)

I did a reread of this whole stinkin' game last night and I think Estes and Sorin both as scum makes the most sense. Overall, though, I gotta say...

Boy, lot of crazy kids in this game. I'm guessing most of you are in high school/college? I am an old man.

Well we know you are wrong on one here yet a pretty bold statement to lock Estes/Sorin together as scum buddies. (even with Estes’ claim) Sorin’s post in 348 wasn’t very complementary of you either OtM (something you dismissed say he doesn’t pay attention to everyone’s posts) Just remember, you haven’t been all that agreeable with past claims either