Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

1. There are townie(s).
2. Vigilantes would also not be able to target you.
3. An SK could kill you.
4. Mafia might have powers.

I think there's a pretty good chance either 3 or 4 is true(or both), which makes your plan fairly worthless.

FoS: LmL

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He might also do it as town, but I'd say he's more likely to play mindgames as scum. The cock-up theory pretty much has the same ratio though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vig should kill LmL. YARR!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Glrok

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

FoS: Glrok

Please explain!

Glrok is clearly trying to avoid any responsibility for his list (if he makes one) and at the same time by pretending not to have read his PM he's trying to avoid being judged this Day 0 on his play.

This Day 0 is very important. This is not the time for Irresponsible Glrok. This is the time for Useful Scumhunting Glrok.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

For the record, I am about 75% sure that LmL is protown.

Well, I'm about 40% sure he's scum.

Anyhow, Glrok, this is better. At least you're saying something. Now provide some real content by telling us why you find LmL to be slightly more likely to be town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I actually made the same mistake too at first. I think it's a fairly natural way of reading it(ie I'm a cop, I can investigate people). Silly LmL.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No. Noone should make a random list.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aren't you supposed to be an English teacher?

Also, is my defense also noted?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Psst, he's not a one-shot Watcher, he's a Watcher who, additionally, can target himself once.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I still haven't seen any proposed reasons as to why randomizing a list would be a bad thing. No takers?

Because you can do better? Because this way you're avoiding responsibility?

But how would non-randomization be "doing better"? That's kindof my whole poit.

How could you not improve on random? Does it matter who you target(if you have such a role)? Yes. If you're a doc, it's gonna be better to protect someone like Seol, if you're a cop, you're better off investigating the more suspicious lot.

There is something to be said for making an offbeat list, ensuring the scum will have harder time predicting our actions. But if you want to make an offbeat "random" list, then make it intentionally so. A random list is not guaranteed to be offbeat at all.

Regardless of what purpose you have in mind, a random list is suboptimal.

As to the "avoiding responsibility" thing, I fail to see how that's A) Relevant; or B) True to begin with. I've taken on a different kind of responsibility/accountability for my behavior simply by claiming ahead of time that I want to make a random list. I figure that I am more likely to be protown than scum, and if I have a role ability, then it could mess with the scums' most carefully laid plans -- especially if I have an important ability.

Of course it's relevant. Wouldn't you agree that a scum claiming cop would have an easier time if he didn't have to justify his choices? This is just the same scenario on a smaller scale.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yay for Stoofs!

Glrok, it doesn't really matter what we're up against. I'm not certainly advocating claims or, for that matter, even trying to figure out the set-up. I just want to use this Day 0 productively to get an idea of people's alignments and use that to create half-useful lists. Of course the day game is important, but a good night game can sure help.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*hi-fives VitaminR*

Note: this game is awesome.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sounds... genuine.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wuss.

Vote: BMQ

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Day 0 discussion will not magically become irrelevant Day 1, Glrok(also: distad).

Distad, I see no particular reason why a vig would have an anomalous role. If there's a vig, he's probably Methodical.

And Stoofer only inserted that provision into the rules after Glrok asked him about. I would think that Stoofer would insert it regardless of the actual setup simply to keep us guessing. And if there's a non-methodical role, most likely it's on the side of the scum as that would be one way of discouraging unnecessary claims.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sit around and accuse others of being scum, maybe?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: BrianMcQueso

Glrok, this is not a particularly strong scum tell. Get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ, please.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No.

I don't feel it has merit.

On "random": it's entirely possible that random just means non-methodical, not truly random. That this killer doesn't prepare his kills may just be a representation of the fact that he makes a last-minute decision on who to bump off.

That's what I had assumed, personally. I very strongly doubt Stoofs would introduce a random role element, especially one so important to the game.

Random thought: is it possible that the random killer is a mod device, perhaps the afore-mentioned incentive not to claim?

Technically, yes, but the possibility is negligible practically speaking. There's no reason to jump to such a conclusion.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No. I said I'd lynch you a dozen times before I lynched BMQ. All it means is that I don't suspect BMQ as much as I suspect you. You're performing stuntman-like conclusion jumping.

"A dozen times" is pretty strong, Glrok. It suggests more than merely being more suspicious of me. The statement was inconsistent with your previous posts and there was very little reason for you to hold your opinion. I personally felt it was most likely you had simply meant Xdaamno, as that would be consistent.

FoS: Glrok

VitR, I think his belligerence was appropriate to the situation. You're not going to find scum by asking them nicely. Slight townie tell.
2. is a null tell in this game, I'd say. Day 0 has no clear goal (compared to normal Days).
3. does have merit. Scum tell.

In conclusion, Mr Flay is somewhat more likely to be scum, but not as much as BMQ, Scumster extraordinaire.

Burden of Proof?

Wrong. His question is absolutely justified. I wasn't saying there weren't any reasons to vote for him, but that I disagreed with the reasons put forward.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Dude, what did I say?

"A dozen times" is pretty strong, Glrok.

Showing willingness to lynch me once before lynching BMQ would be a molehill.

Showing willingness to lynch me a dozen times is not.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

BrianMcQueso, why would a vig kill Seol? This is not a logical vig target at all. And I strongly doubt the mafia would be given that level of control over the endgame. Mafia + "random" SK makes more sense.

Glrok, after I explicitly made my objection known, why did you ignore it? I never implied I had a problem with you being more suspicious of me than BMQ.

Again: Hyperbole.

Where does this "Again" come from, Glrok?

And hey, what is hyperbole used for?

to create a strong impression

*gasp*
Just like what I've been saying! Showing willingness to lynch me a dozen times is a strong statement! Which is inconsistent with the rest of your posts.

Unvote, vote: Glrok

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sssh!

Simenon, that's a useless compromise vote. Get back on the BMQ-wagon.

Unvote, vote: BMQ

Glrok still seems off.

VitaminR seems on. Yay for bad puns!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh snap! I needed that prod.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

distad, no, of course not, but there's a lot to read.

Ok, I really believe distad's claim, especially the bit where he says "cult or mafia". That looks genuine. I certainly don't trust his results though. Once you know there are multiple cops in a game, it just doesn't mean that much.

I'm unsure as to who to vote for. I'm not completely well, so I'm going to take my time to order my thoughts and re-read. I should get myself a vote tomorrow.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think I know Flay's theory. Sweet.

Also, *agrees with Nocmen*. Random SK + Methodical Mafia is the option that makes most sense.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think you lack credibility at this point, distad. And the fact that neither you nor your target was killed is not all that surprising considering you only find (most likely methodical) mafia and cult.

Also, if I'm correct about Flay's theory, he should at this point have heard enough from me. (The specifics of his theory would logically lead to the possibility of me deducing what it is.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Wait, Flay, that was your theory? Why did it make you want to hear from me?

That's totally not the theory I had come up with. I liked my theory. It was kinda awesome.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mine was better as in more fun and more awesome. But, uh, it kinda relied on you(although I suppose it doesn't need to, it's just a lot less credible). Also, I'm not sharing it as that would require me to claim. It was more of a setup theory.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's time for him to claim now.

Vittyboy, your case doesn't amount to much more than "you were wrong about people". Also, the notion that I was trying to deter Glrok from voting xdaamno or something is nonsensical. I don't have that kind of influence over Glrok.

FoS: VitR

, I don't buy your "I know CES and something's off" line. It reads like something you appended to make your reasons for voting me seem at least somewhat substantial.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Lies. I didn't target LmL.

Unvote, vote: Nocmen

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I just hammered your lying ass! Sweet!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Just to clarify: I'm consciously quicklynching him so the town doesn't screw up by following him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah, but he's scum. And I killed him for ya!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Distad's continued survival isn't particularly strange if the non-methodical kill belongs to the SK, as distad can't find SKs. I still tend to think the kill is controlled but the SK probably sends in his kill during the day as opposed to the night(so that the nights don't last so long).

In addition, I don't mind sharing that I do have a night action considering that pretty much everyone seems too.

I don't think we should be too quick to rule out a final mafia member. The lack of kill can also have resulted from having to use his ability. Considering the amount of power the town seems to have, I would be surprised if the mafia doesn't have any.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cop-immune (distad)

Silly Flay, distad can't find the SK.

Furthermore, I can make my choices on the fly, but opted to kill Xdaamno over the claimed Doctor, and LML despite his claimed role and the possibility of a Doctor??

This has absolutely nothing to do with you, Mr Flay. How does this relate to the notion that you're the SK, Flay?

I think Flay's our SK here. I don't really buy his claim. Brian, who are you targetting if we lynch Flay?

I was unaware that mafia would have to give up their nightkill to use an ability (that's not typical, is it?), and if so, that any ability would be more beneficial than a nightkill.

It really depends on the mod whether special mafia roles can do both. And using the ability might be important claimwise.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.

Also, I can pretty much guarantee distad is town.

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but

I think Flay's our SK

. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.

Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?

Bolding mine.

I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...

We might be able to rule you out, but it won't really tell us whether you're the killer. A strategic no-kill would be a fairly obvious move for an SK.

I do suppose, now that everyone else has claimed, it's time for me to do so as well.

*drumrolls*

But, wait!

Let's do my list first:

VitaminR
BrianMcQueso
Glrok
distad
Mr. Flay
Xdaamno
Erg0
Nocmen
Simenon
Seol
LoudmouthLee
Glrok
Mr. Flay
Seol
distad

And that makes my targets:
Night 1: VitaminR
Night 2: BrianMcQueso
Night 3: distad

So what am I?

Let's look through my posts to see whether I've dropped any hints:

Ok, I really believe distad's claim, especially the bit where he says "cult or mafia". That looks genuine. I certainly don't trust his results though. Once you know there are multiple cops in a game, it just doesn't mean that much.

Also, if I'm correct about Flay's theory, he should at this point have heard enough from me. (The specifics of his theory would logically lead to the possibility of me deducing what it is.)

That's totally not the theory I had come up with. I liked my theory. It was kinda awesome.

Mine was better as in more fun and more awesome. But, uh, it kinda relied on you(although I suppose it doesn't need to, it's just a lot less credible). Also, I'm not sharing it as that would require me to claim. It was more of a setup theory.

Also, I can pretty much guarantee distad is town.

At this point I should probably explain what my theory was.

Two words: Dethy cops. That's right. I'm a

third cop

. All innocent results. Distad's mention of mafia/cult type result immediately confirmed him, as that's what I get too, but it's hella confusing having three cops.

As such, when Flay mentioned a theory and noted he required input from me, the knowledge I had that there were at least 3 cops immediately sprang to mind. And certainly, if he had been a cop too, perhaps with some guilty results, then looking for a fourth cop to complete the ensemble is quite logical. I didn't see what else he could be needing me for.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, I'm kinda assuming at least one of us is naive if not both of us.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nah, a no-lynch now would be relinquishing control of the game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I get "Mafia or Cult" results, just like distad. That's why I'm certain he's telling the truth.

Brian, yes, you should reveal it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think we're ready. I don't see us lynching anyone else and it's time to find out if we're right. And I don't want to rely on crosskills.

(I probably would've hammered sooner, but I thought I was already voting Flay.)

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Vote: Mr Flay

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That seems to be correct, yes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, that guilty result combined with Ergo accusing Brian certainly makes things a lot easier.

==============[]

HAMMAH!

Vote: Ergo

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yep. So that makes me naive. I have innocent results on everyone alive.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mr Flay, I'm not sure why, but I did have you pegged as the SK even before you made that claim, so you probably did something wrong.

The claim made things a hell of a lot easier though.

Ergo, do you realize that even if distad had been naive too, we could've no-lynched to discover that BMQ really was a roleblocker? A better idea would've been accusing BMQ of being a mafia blocker, most likely. I know I was still suspicious of BMQ after the latest lack of kill.