Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[Off the Mark]

I know. What mafiascum role has the ability to do that?

The "arrested" part is just flavor. Seems to be just like an SK to me.

[Estes]

Can we get a prod to everyone who hasn't posted in day two yet?

[Gatorguy91]

So you think it's 3 mafia then?

Right after I posted that I was thinking "hmmm... the town has a vigilante and there is a SK, so there has to be more than 2 mafia because there is a high chance of one of them dieing at night."

So I'm also thinking 3 mafia... and this is the set up:

3 mafia
1 serial killer
-
2 masons
2 cops (1 sane, 1 insane)
1 doctor
1 vigilante
1 roleblocker
1 miller

If this is the case (and no one has lied about their claims) then the doctor has a huge advantage here because he knows who the remaining mafia/SK is. The only problem is a) do we believe the people who have claimed? and b) how does the doctor let the rest of us know who to go after without revealing himself?

Gatorguy claimed vanilla. Maybe we don't have a doc. Also your idea about the doc knowing who is scum assumes that none of the claimers are lying.

Cartman never claimed doing anything medically, so no doc= understandable. There IS a roleblocker, but I'm not sure there's 3 mafia.
3 mafia + sk would be too hard for the town. So I'm guessing:
2 mafia, one maybe having an extra role (Like a roleblock, etc..)
1 Serial killer
1 vig
1 miller
2 masons
1 roleblocker
2 cops
2 townies

[Off the Mark]

Gatorguy I just completed a game with 3 mafia + SK and a way less powerful town than this. So I disagree about 3 mafia being too hard for town.

[ryan]

Isn't the SK trying to be the sole survivor anyway? So he/she would be against the town and the mafia.

[Off the Mark]

True, the SK hurts the mafia and the town.

[Off the Mark]

There have to be at least 3 mafia, because of the vig and SK. With that many nightkills, a 2-person mafia could be wiped out way too quick.

So we have:

Mafia - ChaosOmega (too bad his role wasn't Butters/Professor Chaos)
Mafia - ?
Mafia - ?
SK - ?
Vig - Sorin (dead)
Mason - Vendagoat (dead)
Mason - DeliciousGoldfish (dead)
Miller - Zeek
Insane Cop - Jman
Sane Cop - Estes
Roleblocker - OTM
Vanilla - Gatorguy

Unclaimed - Ryan, Earwig/Sorin2, Dean

Now Dean is innocent according to Estes's investigation, so somebody is lying about their claim. We have only 2 unclaimed/uninvestigated players left and 3 scum spots to fill. (perhaps Dean is an investigation-immune SK?)

Not really sure where to go from here, but I am still pretty confident Ryan is scum. It fits with this analysis and it fits with my roleblocking, so I'm sticking with it.

[ryan]

Your right about one thing OtM, somebody has lied about their roleclaim and I believe that somebody to be you. Convenient suspicion thrown at me because you blocked me last night (from doing what, twiddling my fingers hoping to not be night killed?) We have alot of roles that we THINK we know what they are but we have no proof. As much as you are trying to drive who's claimed what, I believe you know more than you are letting on, probably because you already know the roles of the players in this game. Looking back I had suspicion on you in the beginning of the game and it's starting to shine through again.

Vote: Off the Mark

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

[Off the Mark]

Besides your whole line of argument is seriously flawed. You think I did all that analysis to prove that someone is lying about their claim, when

I

am the one lying? Use your head, man.

[ryan]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

[Stewie]

Can we get a prod to everyone who hasn't posted in day two yet?

I prodded Jman and Dean. Neither picked up the prod, so I will be looking for replacements.

[Gatorguy91]

Your right about one thing OtM, somebody has lied about their roleclaim and I believe that somebody to be you. Convenient suspicion thrown at me because you blocked me last night (from doing what, twiddling my fingers hoping to not be night killed?) We have alot of roles that we THINK we know what they are but we have no proof. As much as you are trying to drive who's claimed what, I believe you know more than you are letting on, probably because you already know the roles of the players in this game. Looking back I had suspicion on you in the beginning of the game and it's starting to shine through again.

Vote: Off the Mark

Somebody DEFINITLY Lied about their roleclaim. But You know what, I think it doesn't matter at this point. You're scum, I'm pretty sure.

Vote ryan

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

Well, from my perspective, you are 100% incorrect to suspect me. "Roleblocker" would be an awfully weird safe claim, wouldn't it? If the mod did such a thing, he'd be shoehorning me into playing the role a certain way. Maybe that does happen around here, but I've never seen anything like that. Your theories keep getting more outlandish.

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

Ahhhh, I just realized something. I think the mod DID send out safe claims, and you got one, and that is why this occurred to you.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm "nice cartman" (Gatorguy's role) does sound like it could be a safe claim, rather than a real one. Very interested in J-man's investigation result.

[Off the Mark]

Very sorry for the quadruple post, but another thing my all-roles analysis points out is that we are unlikely to have a doc. In the case that we don't have a doc, Ryan MUST be scum because the only possible blocker is me.

[ryan]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

Ahhhh, I just realized something. I think the mod DID send out safe claims, and you got one, and that is why this occurred to you.

Safe claims are sent out in numerous games where there are many different roles, ask anyone. This is a null scum tell and having played games before, I would have figured you'd realize this.

[Off the Mark]

I know that they are used. This is only my second themed game, so I don't know how common safe-claims are. And I didn't think that your accusation of my use of a safe-claim was solid evidence that you were scum or anything, I just thought it was a possibility. It made sense that if you HAVE a safe claim, it would be natural that you would accuse someone else (who has a very believable claim and is pointing the finger at you) of using a safe claim.

Anyway, that is the most minor point of my evidence against you. Basically, I found you scummy on Day 1, (especially since Sorin turned up town) so I blocked you. Then there was no night kill by the scum. HMMM! And based on all the claimed roles, it looks like we most likely don't have a doc. Double HMMM! And now your response to my claim is to OMGUS accuse me, rather than examining another explanation. ALSO, you said you "couldn't get a good read" on Chaos, which is about as non-commital as it gets and is exactly what you'd expect to be said between two scum.

[ryan]

Very sorry for the quadruple post, but another thing my all-roles analysis points out is that we are unlikely to have a doc. In the case that we don't have a doc, Ryan MUST be scum because the only possible blocker is me.

I can't see how we have two cops and no docs, that doesn't seem to make sense. With Dean and J-Man not picking up prods, it makes me wonder if their roles weren't used last night, another possiblity for why there was only one kill. Speculation is all we have till we get replacements in for those two unfortunately.

[ZeekLTK]

There have to be at least 3 mafia, because of the vig and SK. With that many nightkills, a 2-person mafia could be wiped out way too quick.

So we have:

Mafia - ChaosOmega (too bad his role wasn't Butters/Professor Chaos)
Mafia - ?
Mafia - ?
SK - ?
Vig - Sorin (dead)
Mason - Vendagoat (dead)
Mason - DeliciousGoldfish (dead)
Miller - Zeek
Insane Cop - Jman
Sane Cop - Estes
Roleblocker - OTM
Vanilla - Gatorguy

Unclaimed - Ryan, Earwig/Sorin2, Dean

Now Dean is innocent according to Estes's investigation, so somebody is lying about their claim. We have only 2 unclaimed/uninvestigated players left and 3 scum spots to fill. (perhaps Dean is an investigation-immune SK?)

Not really sure where to go from here, but I am still pretty confident Ryan is scum. It fits with this analysis and it fits with my roleblocking, so I'm sticking with it.

I think it's clear that Dean is a mason. I'd like to hear from Estes what the result was when he investigated Sorin (I).

Someone is lying about their role... Gatorguy.

There is no vanilla townie. He's the SK.

ryan and earwig are mafia.

Let's do this!

vote earwig/SorintheSeer II

I'm voting earwig because in the slight chance I'm wrong, I'd rather keep ryan around because he at least partakes in the discussion. Hopefully ryan kills Gatorguy and vice versa at night and then bam, game over we win. :p

[Off the Mark]

If one cop is insane or paranoid, it makes perfect sense.

Hmm with all the claims here, plus we know Dean is somehow related to music (not a doc), and Ryan couldn't self protect even if he WERE a doc, the only possible remaining doc is Earwig/Sorin2. I doubt the real doc would lie and claim something else.

[ryan]

Zeek: We haven't even heard from Sorin, how can you be so sure? What if J-Man lied? Dean? You already said that somebody lied about their role, why is it inconceivable that one of those two did? Your logic confuses me.

[Off the Mark]

My post 496 was in reply to Ryan's, I just saw Zeek's post.

Agreed, Earwig/Sorin2 is a decent lynch. Poor guy, could get lynched two days in a row. But I'm a lot more sure that ryan is scum.

And your call about Gatorguy being SK is very likely, that makes sense to me. J-man's sanity might shed more light on that, but I have seen investigation-immune SK's, and SK's who turn up guilty, so it's hard to know on that one.

We should at least pressure Ryan into claiming so we can see make a judgement on his "safe claim".

[Off the Mark]

Wait, Ryan wouldn't need to self-protect, duh... I screwed that up. Ryan cannot be a doc who blocked a kill because my roleblock would have kept him from doing his job. So Ryan still can't be a doc, but for a different reason.