Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[ZeekLTK]

That was kind of hasty, so let me explain:

What I meant for Estes was that I want to know what it said Sorin was doing... since he said for Dean there was something with music (which connects him to the mason).

Same thing for j-man, what did it say about Gatorguy (and me)? Other than just innocent or guilty.


For Gatorguy, he's clearly the serial killer because... why would he claim vanilla when you could claim any role? Well, if he is SK he'll get an innocent investigation (or guilty to an insane cop). So he claims a "safe role" of vanilla townie so that when we prove his innocence then no one thinks anything of it. However, since EVERYONE has a role, there is NO WAY he is a vanilla townie. So if we have cop and miller claims, why would you not claim your real role? You wouldn't if your role was a role that was trying to beat the town.

pending j-man's investigation, we can determine if Gatorguy is mafia or not. If he's not (and I don't think he is) that means he has to be the serial killer.

earwig and ryan as mafia because, well... process of elimination. They are the only ones left without roles... so they have to be mafia.

I notice ryan still hasn't claimed anything... (and earwig hasn't been around to claim).

[ryan]

OtM: You are being completely irrational. I do not have a "safe claim" I have a town role that with only two votes on me would be dumb to claim, would it not?

[Off the Mark]

That's why I want more pressure on you, so we can evaluate your "town role".

[ZeekLTK]

Zeek: We haven't even heard from Sorin, how can you be so sure? What if J-Man lied? Dean? You already said that somebody lied about their role, why is it inconceivable that one of those two did? Your logic confuses me.

Dean couldn't have lied because he never claimed anything, but I think it's clear from Estes that he is a mason.

The only way he's not a mason is if Estes is lying, and that means the two of them are mafia, but given the way this game has played out I think it's highly unlikely that those two are working together.

j-man... if you look at j-man's actions from the beginning of the game, he was going after Gatorguy the WHOLE time (because of the guilty result he got). He finally "snapped" (that we weren't paying attention to him) and told us why he was going after him - by claiming his role and sharing his result.

The only claim I really doubt is Off The Mark, but we'll see. To me that makes sense though, if it's you and earwig as mafia... earwig would not have been able to send in the kill since he is M.I.A, and if you were roleblocked you couldn't send it in either.

[ryan]

Zeek: I guess the way I looked at it was that Dean didn't talk, so saying he lied is a stretch but not giving info would be the better way to say it. Also, didn't Estes claim cop? Why would he lie and say he was a mason if he was a sane cop? Also how do we know Chaos didn't send in a kill for the mafia?

[Off the Mark]

Well there was no kill, first of all. So if Chaos sent it in there would have to be a doc who blocked it. Right now it's looking like there is no doc who could have blocked it, which means you are scum, my friend.

[SorintheSeeker]

Everything I said before I was lynched was 100% true and none of my feelings have changed. The exact same people I thought were scum I think are now [maybe I'll add a few more +'s and -'s to my list later =)].


I was a vigilante, though I believe I could only activate it once total, not every night as Stewie claimed. Then again I had to ask what the role actually did (all I got at first was something about making people into chili) so maybe I was wrong. Anyway I had to do at night so I couldn't publicly confirm myself either way so I didn't see any point in claiming. Especially since it didn't really help one side of the other unless we had a confirmed scum (that somehow survived that day's lynch).


Could someone make up a list of claimed roles? Once the first two people started claiming and I knew I had a role, I figured either everyone or a large number of people had roles.


More later.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin you need to play a few games in the newb section. Your post makes it clear you don't understand several things about this game.

You should have claimed, first of all. Most claims are unprovable at first. That's OK.

Secondly, I made a list of all the claims a little ways back. I think Zeek made a list too.

Also, I think Ryan, Dean, and Sorin(2) all need to claim. As I said before, we've pretty much mass-claimed already and this will only help us identify scum at this point.

[Gatorguy91]

Well, if he is SK he'll get an innocent investigation (or guilty to an insane cop)

An sk will get a guilty investigation, that is just stupid Zeek.

[Gatorguy91]

EBWOP: That makes everything you've said irrelevant.

[ryan]

Sorin you need to play a few games in the newb section. Your post makes it clear you don't understand several things about this game.

You should have claimed, first of all. Most claims are unprovable at first. That's OK.

Secondly, I made a list of all the claims a little ways back. I think Zeek made a list too.

Also, I think Ryan, Dean, and Sorin(2) all need to claim. As I said before, we've pretty much mass-claimed already and this will only help us identify scum at this point.

Oh there's been claims but honestly do you believe everyone has told the truth? You seem real intent on finding everyone elses allignment, looking who to nightkill next?

[Estes]

I think it's clear that Dean is a mason. I'd like to hear from Estes what the result was when he investigated Sorin (I).

It said he liked to cook. I already said that before he was lynched.

[ZeekLTK]

Also, didn't Estes claim cop? Why would he lie and say he was a mason if he was a sane cop?

Yes...

Estes basically claimed mason for dean, not for himself... well, Estes posted what his investigation was and it seems extremely likely that Dean is the third mason given what the other 2 mason's roles were AND what Estes got with his investigation.

That is true that Chaos could have sent in the kill too.

Hmmm... maybe the mafia decided not to kill anyone and their plan was for Off The Mark to claim a bogus role and get us to lynch ryan and win (remember his post where he "figured out" that "if we mislynched twice we'd lose")... but he didn't count on Gatorguy killing Chaos during the night!

[Off the Mark]

Are you serious, Zeek? Man, you seem to be doing good analysis and then you say something illogical like that.

Look, we are not in lynch-or-lose right now because a) the scum did not get a NK and b) the SK killed scum. We are sitting pretty good right now, actually, and can even afford a couple mislynches. Since I seem to be the only one who can block scum kills, you probably want to keep me around a little while longer, but we can certainly afford to lynch unclaimed players like Earwig/Sorin2 and ryan.

Look at this:

Oh there's been claims but honestly do you believe everyone has told the truth? You seem real intent on finding everyone elses allignment, looking who to nightkill next?

This is pure desperation here. Of course I am intent on figuring out everyone's alignment, that is how you win! And besides, if that were my motivation it would be a little silly. I think scum has plenty of good targets at this point (mainly the 2 cops and myself) so there would be no motivation for me-as-scum to try to sniff out more roles.

[ryan]

PLEASE tell me you are joking? Go ask anyone who's played this game for any amount of time and ask them what they think of people who try and get everyone to claim their roles. It smells very strongly of scum trying to figure out the power roles to get their nightkill down. There is no desperation on my part because my role is not scum, I'm pointing out scum tendencies that you are showing. You've been asking people to claim this entire game and not to find scum, you wanted the power roles out in the clear so you could kill them and than when your kill didn't go through you completely turned on one of the people who's been hunting scum this game, me.

[ryan]

And than let's look at your

"but we can certainly afford to lynch unclaimed players like Earwig/Sorin2 and ryan."

Are you serious? Let's go after people because "we can take a chance?" You have some people believing your crazy theories but that comment cements you are scum. in my book.

[Off the Mark]

Unless we have a doc, you are scum. You cannot talk your way out of that one.

[ryan]

Unless we have a doc, you are scum. You cannot talk your way out of that one.

I'll tell ya two things OtM

1) THAT is illogical (since you like throwing that word around)

2) I'm not a doc but I do have a pro town flavor.

[ZeekLTK]

We have 10 alive right now. If we lynch, it's:

(I removed the other killing role from this analysis, as it is essentially random whether they kill scum or town and the other role may die at some point and that extra kill will go away - also I assumed 3 scum)

Day 1 - lynch, Night 1 - NK (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (6 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

All the mafia knew going into the night was that the vig was dead, and there was still a serial killer on the loose.

It's perfectly reasonable to assume they said "let's not kill anyone and let the SK kill a townie, then we'll blame the non-kill on a townie and get him lynched, then we'll kill someone on night 2 and win."

Because that's what would have happened if the SK killed a townie and not a mafia, we WOULD be in lynch or lose right now. You guys just didn't count on the SK hitting one of you.

unvote; Vote: Off The Mark

Good strategy though...

[ryan]

Everything I said before I was lynched was 100% true and none of my feelings have changed. The exact same people I thought were scum I think are now [maybe I'll add a few more +'s and -'s to my list later =)].


I was a vigilante, though I believe I could only activate it once total, not every night as Stewie claimed. Then again I had to ask what the role actually did (all I got at first was something about making people into chili) so maybe I was wrong. Anyway I had to do at night so I couldn't publicly confirm myself either way so I didn't see any point in claiming. Especially since it didn't really help one side of the other unless we had a confirmed scum (that somehow survived that day's lynch).


Could someone make up a list of claimed roles? Once the first two people started claiming and I knew I had a role, I figured either everyone or a large number of people had roles.


More later.

Mafia - ChaosOmega (too bad his role wasn't Butters/Professor Chaos)
Mafia - ?
Mafia - ?
SK - ?
Vig - Sorin (dead)
Mason - Vendagoat (dead)
Mason - DeliciousGoldfish (dead)
Miller - Zeek
Insane Cop - Jman
Sane Cop - Estes
Roleblocker - OTM
Vanilla - Gatorguy

This was what OTM had a page earlier. I believe it's correct/current.

[Off the Mark]

We have 10 alive right now. If we lynch, it's:

(I removed the other killing role from this analysis, as it is essentially random whether they kill scum or town and the other role may die at some point and that extra kill will go away - also I assumed 3 scum)

Day 1 - lynch, Night 1 - NK (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (6 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

All the mafia knew going into the night was that the vig was dead, and there was still a serial killer on the loose.

It's perfectly reasonable to assume they said "let's not kill anyone and let the SK kill a townie, then we'll blame the non-kill on a townie and get him lynched, then we'll kill someone on night 2 and win."

Because that's what would have happened if the SK killed a townie and not a mafia, we WOULD be in lynch or lose right now. You guys just didn't count on the SK hitting one of you.

unvote; Vote: Off The Mark

Good strategy though...

Zeek, what you are saying is possible, I will grant you that. But is it probable? No. Your theory here is way too convoluted. You gotta consider that the simpler answer is most often the correct one.

Even IF I was scum and I had made this plan during the night, once the kill was blocked and we were no longer at LYLO, I would have abandoned it.

[Stewie]

vampyrusddg replaces Dean, as soon as he receives my PM, which I will send out shortly.

[vampyrusddg]

greetings all

Just finished a quick re-read and looking at the claims I've got to say I'm favouring a Ryan lynch at the moment. Mostly because he's had a lot more interaction than earwig and therefore would give us more to go on tomorrow, while we Earwig can be investigated, although theres no way I'd rush into a lynch this early in the day, and I want to do another re-read of the early game with some of the blanks filled in this time to spot anything.

I'm pretty sure Estes is clean, unless he's scum with an ability to find out information but that strikes me as an overpowerful role, you'd easily be able to investigate the people you thought were power roles and then NK them...

His information on my role is accurate enough, although I am not a 3rd Mason as i would seem to suggest, and I have no protection/vig/investigative powers

[Estes]

Welcome aboard Vampy.

[Off the Mark]

Well, if he is SK he'll get an innocent investigation (or guilty to an insane cop)

An sk will get a guilty investigation, that is just stupid Zeek.

Of course you'd say that. But I've seen lots of setups where SK comes up innocent. I'm pretty sure he was right and you are the SK. Besides, we don't even know about J-man's sanity yet, so you jumped the gun a bit there.