Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[Off the Mark]

PLEASE tell me you are joking? Go ask anyone who's played this game for any amount of time and ask them what they think of people who try and get everyone to claim their roles. It smells very strongly of scum trying to figure out the power roles to get their nightkill down.

Have you never been in a game where town has massclaimed? It can be quite helpful. Once several power roles have been exposed and a couple townies are dead, the pros to massclaiming outweigh the cons. Basically we get to evaluate everyone on the strength of their claims, and we identify all players who claim the same role as suspicious. (hmmm, maybe we should be more suspicious of Jman and Estes, but I'm waiting for the sanity test results) The con of massclaiming is that scum can plan their NK's, of course, going after the power roles, but since we've already exposed several power roles, that doesn't matter much at all.

[ryan]

greetings all

Just finished a quick re-read and looking at the claims I've got to say I'm favouring a Ryan lynch at the moment. Mostly because he's had a lot more interaction than earwig and therefore would give us more to go on tomorrow, while we Earwig can be investigated, although theres no way I'd rush into a lynch this early in the day, and I want to do another re-read of the early game with some of the blanks filled in this time to spot anything.

I'm pretty sure Estes is clean, unless he's scum with an ability to find out information but that strikes me as an overpowerful role, you'd easily be able to investigate the people you thought were power roles and then NK them...

His information on my role is accurate enough, although I am not a 3rd Mason as i would seem to suggest, and I have no protection/vig/investigative powers

I've had more interaction than Earwig/Sorin and that makes me worth a lynch? What do you have that Estes is clean? What about J-Man? My theory on OtM?

[ZeekLTK]

If you aren't a mason then what are you?

[vampyrusddg]

I've had more interaction than Earwig/Sorin and that makes me worth a lynch?

Yes because we learn more, the more we can look back knowing your role and see who was attacking, proteting, etc. Lynching a lurker even if they are scum gives us less information to go on tomorrow

What do you have that Estes is clean?

As I said, what he got back from his investigation is accurate enough for me to believe he has investigative powers, not saying this entirely clears him, but good enough for me for the moment

What about J-Man? My theory on OtM?

I'm reserving judgement on the other stuff until I've had a proper re-read, although I think OtM has faired rather well under your pretty much constant barrage of accusations and still managed to post some good content. Normaly a good sign in my eyes.

[ryan]

Constant barrage? He's attacked me with the same "you're scum and you're caught" accusatons in almost all his posts, how is that good content?

[vampyrusddg]

If you aren't a mason then what are you?

I'm pretty much a townie with an almost useles ability. I am brown noise Cartman, I can use the brown noise to make everyone crap themselves, though I can't do it till I'm lynched, skipping the night phase.

It could have some use though, you could lynch me, and I'll make the night face skipped, basicaly all we'll be doing is proving my role so you can trust Estes tomorrow, there won't be ny NKs, investigations, etc. and you'll have one less town player, but you'll have a cop you can trust Tomorrow. Only problem is OtM will need to make another sucsessful block the night after (presuming there isn't a doc) and chances of that? I'd said 1 in 3 at best. A plan to bear in mind though.

[vampyrusddg]

Constant barrage? He's attacked me with the same "you're scum and you're caught" accusatons in almost all his posts, how is that good content?

I neve said it wasn't reciprocated, but he's put some good thought into the theory, which I haven't seen much off from you, he comes over as cornered town to my eye.

[Gatorguy91]

Also, Zeek, If I'm so Obviously the serial killer, why aren't you voting for me?

[ZeekLTK]

Also, Zeek, If I'm so Obviously the serial killer, why aren't you voting for me?

Because it's better to kill mafia than the SK. The SK can kill mafia at night (like Chaos) so why would we want to lynch him when there are still mafia around?

[ZeekLTK]

It's 5 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK at the moment.

I think we've narrowed it down to anti-town roles being 3 out of these 4 people: earwig (Sorin II), ryan, Off The Mark, and Gatorguy.

So that means, out of those four, 2 are mafia, 1 is SK, 1 is town.

Personally I think it's OTM and earwig as mafia and Gatorguy as SK, but regardless...


Here are the scenarios:

We lynch the townie, that leaves 4 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 serial killer heading into night;

Scenarios:
2 town killed = 2 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK (Lynch or Lose for BOTH town and sk)
1 town & 1 mafia killed = 3 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
1 town & SK killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
1 mafia & SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
1 town killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK
1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
SK killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
no one killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK

But, no matter who gets killed at night, it should be easy to identify the anti-town players and take the necessary steps to win.



If we lynch a mafia: it's 5 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 serial killer heading into night;

Scenarios:
2 town killed = 3 town vs 2 mafia vs 1 SK (Lynch or Lose for BOTH town and sk)
1 town & 1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 SK
1 mafia & SK killed = 5 town *WIN*
1 town & SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
1 town killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK
1 mafia killed = 4 town vs 1 SK
SK killed = 4 town vs 1 mafia
no one killed = 5 town vs 1 mafia vs 1 SK



If we lynch the SK: it's 5 town vs 2 mafia heading into night;

Scenarios:
1 town killed = 4 town vs 2 mafia (lynch or lose)
no one killed = 5 town vs 2 mafia

At this point we'll still have some doubt as to who exactly are the mafia and who is the townie out of our suspects and we have a good chance of being in lynch or lose.


So it's actually better to lynch a townie today rather than lynch the serial killer. Like I said, I'm still pretty sure it's OTM & earwig, but since there is some doubt about ryan, and OTM has claimed a somewhat believable role... I think the town (and SK's) best bet is to lynch the safest bet to be mafia: earwig.

unvote; vote earwig/SorintheSeeker (II)

[ryan]

Also, Zeek, If I'm so Obviously the serial killer, why aren't you voting for me?

Because it's better to kill mafia than the SK. The SK can kill mafia at night (like Chaos)

so why would we want to lynch him when there are still mafia around?

Because we don't want him to mess up and nightkill a townie. The SK's job is to be the sole survivor, so either we go after the mafia or the SK, either way we want them eliminated.

[Off the Mark]

I would support an earwig/sorin2 lynch, but I'd rather it be ryan. I'll switch my vote to Sorin2, no problem, if I see he is getting more support for a lynch, but I think we have tons of scummy arguments from ryan and very little input from Earwig/Sorin2, so for now my vote stays put.

Notice how ryan argues above for a reason to go after the SK instead of mafia, but then he says "either way, blah blah" to try to appear neutral.

[ryan]

OtM: Don't be an idiot. The SK's role is to become the sole survivor so he doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it isn't him. He's out to eliminate everyone, come on now. I want the mafia and the SK to be eliminated, what part of that aren't you understanding?

[Off the Mark]

Mod

can we do something about the rude namecalling in this thread? It's getting tiresome.

[ryan]

Mod

can we do something about the rude namecalling in this thread? It's getting tiresome.

WOW, is our skin not very thick OtM?

[Off the Mark]

It's a game, dude. You need to chill with calling people "idiots".

[Off the Mark]

Also, I've noticed when I defeat one of our debating points, you don't concede. You just completely ignore that entire line of debate as if it never happened. For instance, you never addressed my massclaiming response and there have been MANY points like that over the past few pages, where we go back and forth, and then suddenly you feel defeated and just drop it, but you bring up something else new to argue about, without ever saying, "Yeah I guess you have a point there." It is rather annoying.

[ryan]

When you defeat? Careful, not sure if the room your in can support your head which seems to be growing. You haven't defeated any point I've made and I've already addressed your mass claim idea. R E A D the thread. I don't think you've had a good point since you said you roleblocked me (which you didn't because I didn't do anything) Bring up something decent scum and I'll think about saying you have a point.

[Stewie]

Mod

can we do something about the rude namecalling in this thread? It's getting tiresome.

Try not to take this game personally. If I see an argument get out of hand, I WILL MODKILL. You heard me.

So yes, I don't enjoy the name calling either and if it continues I'll take action.

[Off the Mark]

When you defeat? Careful, not sure if the room your in can support your head which seems to be growing. You haven't defeated any point I've made and I've already addressed your mass claim idea. R E A D the thread. I don't think you've had a good point since you said you roleblocked me (which you didn't because I didn't do anything) Bring up something decent scum and I'll think about saying you have a point.

I'm done talking to you.

[ryan]

When you defeat? Careful, not sure if the room your in can support your head which seems to be growing. You haven't defeated any point I've made and I've already addressed your mass claim idea. R E A D the thread. I don't think you've had a good point since you said you roleblocked me (which you didn't because I didn't do anything) Bring up something decent scum and I'll think about saying you have a point.

I'm done talking to you.

LOL!!!!!!

[ZeekLTK]

Well, I've had OTM and earwig pegged as mafia ever since early on when OTM voted for earwig to try to distance the two from each other and then as soon as that "bandwagon" got support he suddenly jumped off and threw accusations at me and Dean.

He and earwig were both in on the j-man "bandwagon" as well.

IMO, this is what I think happened. At the beginning of the game OTM just threw his vote on j-man as the 2nd vote and made it appear random. That was fine. But then his mafia buddy earwig threw his vote on j-man as well for no reason. This raised suspicion, so OTM immediately switched his vote to earwig to make it seem like they weren't working together (and to appear to be pro-town for catching "scummy behavior").

earwig realized that he had been too hasty to follow a fellow mafia so he apologized for the vote. This threw up red flags on him so both me and Dean (now vampy) voted for him. Only needing 6 votes to lynch, earwig was half way there, so OTM panicked and withdrew his vote... and then he tried to cast suspicion on the people who had gone after his mafia partner to completely derail the bandwagon (which he did).

Now... a [game] day, and several pages, later after all the claims, we have over half of the people in the game as "very likely" to be town (me, Estes, j-man, Dean/vampy)... but neither OTM nor earwig are in this group.

I also felt like Chaos and OTM were working together a few pages back. I pinned Chaos as mafia for this, and low and behold... he was mafia.

So I'm sticking with my initial suspicion that those two (earwig and OTM) are mafia!

And let's just look at earwig independently:

His third vote on j-man was clearly a bandwagon vote to get him closer to lynching. This is generally a mafia tactic because once you get someone close to a lynch (3 votes needing 6 is fairly close) then, after the day wears on, townies on the fence are more likely to vote for the person with a lot of votes just to get the day over with.

Earwig could have defended his choice as being random and stuck with it, but instead when he was called out on it he did a complete 180 and not only withdrew his vote, but apologized for it. By doing this, it is basically an admission that the vote was not random. If it was random there would be no need to apologize or even unvote.

So if it wasn't random, that means he specifically voted for j-man for a reason... why? Well, it's not hard to figure out... j-man, a pro-town, had the most votes and earwig, anti-town, wanted to push him just a little closer to being hung.

So that's my case. Vote earwig on Day 2!

[Estes]

After thinking about it for awhile, and still being undecided on the ryan/OTM bickering I'm gonna

vote earwig/SorintheSeeker

because I like the argument Zeek makes against him.

I really wish we had J-man's investigation(couldn't the mod give it to us while he's being replaced) to know about him and Gatorguy a little better.

[Off the Mark]

Sidenote: I totally called that Dean was brown noise Cartman. I am awesome.

Zeek is still looking for drama when it is really much simpler than that.

So, Zeek, let me ask you, do you think I made up the roleblocker role and found the episode that fits? Do you think the mod sent me a safe claim of "roleblocker" and I had to work that into some kind of scum strategy? These are the questions you need to answer if you believe I am lying about my role. I even breadcrumbed it for heaven's sake!

[Off the Mark]

Btw, why am I not in the "very likely to be town" category? How is my claim any less trustworthy than yours?