Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Streeflo]

Well in that case, no to a scum mason pair.

I'll do a player by player thing like soupfly later on in the day.

[Erg0]

Sorry, I should have been more specific - I meant a scum mason paired with a townie, not two scum masons.

[Streeflo]

That's what I meant though. No, I refuse the believe we would get screwed over like that.

[Jimmy R]

Can we get another prod or Haut Boy or a replacement? We really need to look at him now...

[Streeflo]

I looked at HautBoy, and he hasn't made very many posts. 10 to be exact, and while they look protown enough, are hardly enough to make much of an impression. I agree with Jimmy R.

Erg0 strikes me as Godfather behavior. Town looking, but near the border. However, it is just a feeling, and on the whole, I would say he was townish.

Erotomachia seemed townie enough Day 1, but Day 2 stayed clear of the TBS wagon completely. This strikes me as very odd, scum-lurking behavior.

I didn't have internet access during the SoupFly incident during the very beginning of Day 1, so I'm not familiar with it. Ignoring that, I remember SoupFly being somewhat townie Day 1, and remember getting bad vibes from him near the end of Day 1 and maybe during Day 2. However, I like his post 574 so I'll have to look deeper into him.

[Jimmy R]

Looking at who

wasn't

or at least who seemed reulctant to be on the TBS bandwagon would be very interesting.

[Erg0]

Erg0 strikes me as Godfather behavior. Town looking, but near the border. However, it is just a feeling, and on the whole, I would say he was townish.

Just quickly: didn't we just lynch the Godfather? I assumed that "Don" was the same as Godfather.

[Erg0]

Actually, more to the point there was no practical difference between the Godfather and the rest of the scum in this game, since the cop died before we even started. Ergo, no reason for the Godfather to behave differently to any other scum.

[Streeflo]

Actually, more to the point there was no practical difference between the Godfather and the rest of the scum in this game, since the cop died before we even started. Ergo, no reason for the Godfather to behave differently to any other scum.

Oh right. Well then, you're pretty solid townie in my book.

Both HautBoy and Erotomachia made zero mention of the TBS wagon. HautBoy because he was lurking, and Erotomachia only had remarks during twilight.

[Jimmy R]

Interesting.

I'm leaning towards Ero or Haut Boy - if only by process of elimination.

[Erg0]

I have a method that I like to use in this situation, but it will take me a day or two to get the required re-reads done. Hang tight, people.

[Erotomachia]

I have to get my wisdom teeth removed so I'll probably be a little out of it today. I'll be back to post my responses and suspicions as soon as possible. Please don't quick lynch anyone again.

[Erg0]

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

[Erg0]

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

[Erotomachia]

All right, I'm back, albeit a little drugged up.

Erotomachia seemed townie enough Day 1, but Day 2 stayed clear of the TBS wagon completely.

I'm actually very disappointed by Day 1. I didn't feel that Niv was very scummy, but I was completely convinced that Oman was mafia. After night, I was totally disheartened by losing 4 townies (including the vig) in a row.

So I was probably overly cautious Day 2. I made a mistake in going after Oman for supporting TBS' weird Day 1 plan, instead of TBS himself.

Let's look at who voted for TBS: soupfly, Jimmy, Gator, Streeflo, and Erg0. Soupfly has suggested that Haut and I are scum. That would mean that all the townies were on the TBS wagon, and that all the scum were off it. I know I'm innocent, which means that I know this is wrong and that there was definitely scum on the TBS wagon. It makes sense, too: scum voted for TBS Day 2 to make themselves look good the next day. Even from everyone else's perspective, it must seem pretty unlikely that

no scum at all

would vote Day 2.

Therefore, at least one of these people must be scum:

Erg0
soupfly
Streeflo

Unfortunately, I could see any one of these three being scum. But right now I'm most suspicious of soupfly. In post 533 he seemed a little reluctant to lynch TBS, saying:

Based on this, lynching TBS (if he's scum) will not really give us any further info. Lynching Streetflo or ErgO would establish a link with the other.

After a couple people FOS'ed him, he voted for TBS. I think he was holding back, wanting to save TBS and looking to see where the momentum was going. When the attention turned to him, he turned on his scumbuddy.

Haut Boy might be scum with one of the three, but he's posted very little recently. Maybe we should get a replacement?

[soupfly]

erotomachia makes an okay point about me but it really is wifom...which is okay at this point i think. in my defense its an analysis, not a call for a vote, and it actually was a correct analysis. if you look back at that situation, there were five votes needed for a lynch and three scum remaining...therefore you needed only two town votes for a quick lynch. the fact that Ergo/streetflo were on the wagon made it possible that they were trying to get townie TBS lynched. when i realized a quick lynch wasn't happening (enough time had passed with jimmy/gator still voting tbs) i put my vote down because it was a clear sign of tbs's guilt.

for the record, i had not found TBS guilty throughout the game. at the same time i led the lynch against Niv and would have just as quickly lynched Oman so i was looking for scummy behavior (niv for his poor pbp against jenter and oman for his constant jumpiness) instead of finding those looking to blend in.

while i was frustrated with the start of day 2, i was not really in a cautious mood. we took nearly a month to complete day 1 and it resulted in three townie deaths. i was certain that niv and oman were scum so it was quite a bummer. beyond that we were at lylo already and hadn't taken out a single mafia member so i wasn't really too excited about more conversation. its clear that the scum had taken the low road and let the overeager townies knock each other off.

i did a read through and none of us are really scummy which makes this a tough call. i've taken a reverse approach in trying to figure out who is town instead of who is scum. i think that real townies actually make an effort to find scum, they're a little bit more aggressive and more likely to create controversy with what they say/do. that's why i'm leaning towards erotomachia and hautboy as scum at the moment. hautboy has lurked and erotomachia has played the good townie without really making any waves...any real accusations to bring heat upon him.

as far as me being scum, i've certainly posted alot which exposes me more than others. probably easier to to make wifom cases against me but in my defense i've been fairly aggressive in hunting scum...though the results have not been so spectacular

[Streeflo]

I was disappointed in Day 1 for the same reasons, especially since Oman was acting very scummy. However, IMO, TBS stuck out sorely as the only scummy suspect still alive during Day 2. Caution be damned, there was no way 3 out of 3 of the scummiest people in the game would turn up town.

I

could

see Erg0 popping out as scum, but that doesn't say much because I could see everyone else as scum too. Erg0 would be dead last on my scum list.

I'm not sure what to go on with the other 3. I can see a HautBoy -- Ero pair easily, but I can't help but imagine SoupFly-scum. I can't really see Ero and SoupFly together though, so unless they are doing some crazy distancing strategy, I would count the other as townie if one showed up as scum. So as of right now, Ero and Hautboy first.

I'll pend my decision until HautBoy posts. As I've said before, his posts gave the impression of actually helping and giving content, but his main point against him is his lurking. Which he has done a

lot

of.

[Erotomachia]

Yeah...it wasn't really caution as much as it was helplessness. We have to lynch 3 scum in a row to win.

I have absolutely no read on Haut Boy. And I don't want to lynch somebody just because he hasn't posted. He's been gone from the entire site for 11 days, so it's unclear whether he's actually lurking or just completely inactive.

Yet, at the moment everyone (including Jimmy, our confirmed innocent) seems to be placing Haut Boy at the top of their scum list, with me close behind. That doesn't even make sense to me - you think that the only 2 people who didn't vote were both TBS' scumbuddies? As I've said before, I'm sure that at least one scum turned on TBS to make himself look good the following day.

I also just realized that what I posted earlier about "one of the 3 being scum" is basically a truism. From everyone's perspective (except Jimmy's), there are 4 suspects, 2 of whom must be scum. So, yes, it's obvious, but my point was that I wanted to focus on the 3 people besides Haut Boy.

Mod

, can you prod or replace Haut Boy?

[Jimmy R]

Don't think we can go anywhere without replacing Haut Boy - it's to risky to just lynch a lurker at this stage.

[Erg0]

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

[soupfly]

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

[Erotomachia]

The fact that so many people want to lynch Haut Boy makes me think he's a townie. If he wasn't, I would have expected a "counter-wagon" to form.

Erg0's confidence in Haut Boy's scumminess strikes me as scummy itself.

[Maz Medias]

Haut Boy has been prodded.

[Jimmy R]

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

Yeah - 2 good points really. The 2nd one is defintely something to consider if we don't end up getting much more info.

[Streeflo]

The fact that so many people want to lynch Haut Boy makes me think he's a townie. If he wasn't, I would have expected a "counter-wagon" to form.

Wait, I don't get this.

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

i hadn't thought of the replacement one like that. Our best hope is for HautBoy to come back then. > >

Your point on the night makes sense, but as a rule, I generally don't like the metagame night phase lengths. It's too complicated and there's a lot of hidden variables. By that same logic though, HautBoy wouldn't be a powerrole either, so if he claims one...