Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Erg0]

Um, since when do the scum

vote

on night kills? When I mod I just need one of them to send me the kill, so if one is absent it wouldn't hold the game up.

Not only is this a terrible meta, it's factually inaccurate.

[soupfly]

The fact that so many people want to lynch Haut Boy makes me think he's a townie. If he wasn't, I would have expected a "counter-wagon" to form.

Wait, I don't get this.

me neither

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

i hadn't thought of the replacement one like that. Our best hope is for HautBoy to come back then. > >

Your point on the night makes sense, but as a rule, I generally don't like the metagame night phase lengths. It's too complicated and there's a lot of hidden variables. By that same logic though, HautBoy wouldn't be a powerrole either, so if he claims one...

even if he does come back, what can we really hope to get out of him. the idea is that by this point you can evaluate the person's play throughout the entire game as the identity of the players is slowly revealed. i just can't imagine how we could really get much out of him (or replacement) at this stage of the game.

in my way of thinking we can evaluate hautboy either through evaluation/exclusion of other players (not a great method IMO) or to do a little metagaming and evaluate length of night phase and the power role issue. i don't think that town has anymore power-roles so it would make sense that hautboy/original player weren't too interested in this game due to being vanilla townie. in all honesty, people take a greater interest in the game when they have a power role, especially when you're mafia. i think their play goes beyond lurking into the realm of just not caring too much about game 470. i know metagaming is frowned upon but in this particular case it makes sense. again, is this making any sense to you guys?

i have one final idea but i gotta run now and want a little time to digest the idea and see if it actually makes sense. will post it when i get a chance.

[soupfly]

Um, since when do the scum

vote

on night kills? When I mod I just need one of them to send me the kill, so if one is absent it wouldn't hold the game up.

Not only is this a terrible meta, it's factually inaccurate.

i've never modded so i wouldn't know. however, if there were only two scum players left, would one send in the kill without hearing from the other? that's not proper etiquette i would think. all i'm saying is that it would have taken a bit more than it did.

if you guys don't buy this logic, do you have other ideas?

[Erg0]

If it was me, I'd send in the kill on my own at the night choice deadline. If your buddy hasn't responded by then they waive their right to have input.

[Erotomachia]

The fact that so many people want to lynch Haut Boy makes me think he's a townie. If he wasn't, I would have expected a "counter-wagon" to form.

Wait, I don't get this.

I meant that scum usually have to worry about how their behavior is going to be analyzed on the next day. They have to make sure not to appear linked to one another. But since we're at Lylo, I figure that scum would really love to mislynch just to get the game over with. If they get it right, then they don't even have to worry about appearing scummy tomorrow since they'll have already won.

So if Haut Boy were scum, I would have somewhat expected his scumbuddy to cast suspicion on somebody else. The fact that there's such a strong consensus about Haut Boy makes me think that the mafia is ok with his lynch.

[Erg0]

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

[Streeflo]

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

Badabing!

[Erg0]

I think I've seen enough. All the signs point to Haut Boy, and realistically there's nothing that will change the fact that the entire town is suspicious of him. I don't want to put the mod to the trouble of finding another replacement just so that we can feel good about lynching him.

Vote: Haut Boy

[Erotomachia]

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

All the signs point to Haut Boy

What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.

[Erg0]

<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

All the signs point to Haut Boy

What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.

Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.

[Jimmy R]

Honestly, right now I'm really not sure.

I think Haut Boy is possibly scum but maybe we should leave that alone for now since we have no content from him recently and like someone mentioned, any replacement isn't going to give us much unless they really slip up.

So maybe we should focus on who the other scum is? But saying that, I really have no idea who the other person could be.

At the moment I suppose the best lynch is Haut Boy, but it's a real gamble at lylo...

[Erg0]

It is a gamble, but the question is whether it's a worse gamble than the alternative. My second option right now would be Erotomachia, and I can't see any way he'd be scum if Haut Boy is town so there's no practical difference between them.

[soupfly]

I think haut boy is townie because of what I'd previously written. I know its metagaming but at this stage its a valid argument IMHO. Aside from lurking, which at this point seems more like indifference, I don't think there's much pointing to his guilt.

Haut Boy is an easy lynch cause nobody's going to stand up for him since he's away. Safe prey for scum wanting to get an easy lynch without wanting to mess with the active players that would actually fight back.

Jimmy, I think you're probably going to be the decision maker on this since you're the the most credible of all of us.

I'm out til sunday, see you then.

[soupfly]

One last thing, to me Erotomachia gets my vote if we were to vote right now. He hasn't done anything scummy but he's also not done many things that are pro-town. Not much scum hunting for most of the game until now. Hasn't really challenged anyone or posted anything that would draw attention to himself. He's just kind of gone with the flow. That's the sense I've gotten from him.

Again Jimmy, I think the burden of today's vote will fall on you.

We do need a Haut Boy replacement because its four to lynch and there's only five active players at the moment which means that no lynch can take place without scum participation...ouch.

[Erotomachia]

One last thing, to me Erotomachia gets my vote if we were to vote right now. He hasn't done anything scummy but he's also not done many things that are pro-town. Not much scum hunting for most of the game until now. Hasn't really challenged anyone or posted anything that would draw attention to himself. He's just kind of gone with the flow. That's the sense I've gotten from him.

I feel you're misrespresenting me. Look back at day 1. I think I was one of the first to call TBS' "lynch the mason" plan terrible. And I also attacked Oman in post 353 (page 15) for supporting TBS' plan and wanting to vig Gator.

[Streeflo]

HautBoy's lurked as exactly scum would, right through the mafia lynch Day 2. As said before, even if a replacement comes in or he comes back, there won't be anything that can be done to change our opinions about him.

SoupFly, I thought about it, and what Erg0 said is right. If there were two scum left and one of them was inactive, the other scum would send in the nightkill without a beat. They lost their right to have a say by not being active. It's not proper etiquette or anything, because they're not being proper by being active. I don't think your metagame strategy has much validity.

It is a gamble, but the question is whether it's a worse gamble than the alternative. My second option right now would be Erotomachia, and I can't see any way he'd be scum if Haut Boy is town so there's no practical difference between them.

qft

[Erg0]

We do need a Haut Boy replacement because its four to lynch and there's only five active players at the moment which means that no lynch can take place without scum participation...ouch.

That's only true if Haut Boy is a townie.

[Streeflo]

Uhoh, this game nearly went down to the second page.
::bumps:

HautBoy hasn't showed up yet, but I'll

Vote: HautBoy

and

FoS: Erotomachia

They scream scum-pair in my eyes.

[Erotomachia]

That puts Haut Boy at L-2.

I find it ridiculous that you're both voting for someone who isn't even here to defend himself. I wish the mod would just replace Haut Boy.

I'm going to have my vote reflect my actual suspicions:

vote: soupfly

[Erg0]

Looks like Haut Boy is being replaced (I see Maz has posted in the replacement thread). I do find it telling that there hasn't been a speedlynch now that he's at lynch -2.

[soupfly]

because i really don't think haut boy is scum and because we agreed to hold off on getting to two votes, i find L-2 very odd at this point. i think that jimmy should have more input (since he's the most reliable source of analysis) before we get close to a vote.

my mood for d3 is far different than d2. i'm in no rush. two correct lynches is not so hard considering that we can no lynch on D4 to eliminate an unknown. this is the critical lynch and if we get this right then i'm confident for the final showdown.

[Erotomachia]

I do find it telling that there hasn't been a speedlynch now that he's at lynch -2.

It shouldn't be surprising to you at all. If Haut Boy is town, then the only people who could quick lynch him (meaning people who haven't voted yet) are soupfly, Jimmy, and me. Jimmy's obviously not going to do that. That means that soupfly and I would have to.

But a soupfly+me scumpair doesn't make any sense. In fact you yourself said that if Haut Boy is town, then I'm probably town too. So only soupfly could quicklynch Haut Boy, and 1 vote isn't enough.

By the way, I'm not saying that Haut Boy is innocent. I simply have no idea. To me, it seems basically impossible to tell whether he's scum or not.

[Maz Medias]

Shanba replaces Haut Boy, effective immediately.

[Shanba]

Hi guys. Read through the whole thread, and need some time to digest it. I note that I'm about to be lynched and am pretty unhappy about that, as you can imagine. I need to get my thoughts in order cause it's midnight here, so I'll post something useful tomorrow.

[Streeflo]

Unvote;

I'll give Shanba a chance, but I doubt it's going to get anywhere.