Open 42 - Friends and Enemies - (Game Over) before 495

[Shanba]

Vote: Polter

[Shanba]

Unvote Vote: Emptyger

[Shanba]

Let the replacing begin! Bastards, refusing to post.

Unvote, Vote: Dairy milk product guy

/odd mood

[Shanba]

I'm going for the "vote as many people as possible" tactic so I can point back to it and say "I told you so" at the end of the game no matter who turns up scum. Empy gave me a slightly scummy vibe so I switched to him, then to yogurtbandit cuz I couldn't understand a word he said.

[Shanba]

Oh no! He figured me out! The dastardly rascal!

I would've gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling kids.

But seriously, we should be wagoning YB. Or Empy. Sim has the right idea

[Shanba]

Unvote: Samruc

I don’t like Lemming or Shanba. Actually, I don’t like Lemming *and* Shanba. They’re both trying way too hard.

Mm, quite possibly true. I've never tried being quite so random before, so it probably came out quite forced. As you can see, this is nothing like my normal playstyle.

YB, while I may have been joking around, I was quite serious about my votes both on you and on Emptyger. I want you to explain what you meant in that earlier post and also why you've just given a rough parrot of what Empy said.

[Shanba]

Where did I ever state I was trying to be random? Also, how can you not know what is out of place when you state that you can see what is out of place?

[Shanba]

/egg on my face

Yeah, that was kinda a big mess up. However, my votes were never random. Just the stuff that accompanied them. I made clear at the time when I explained my votes that they weren't random, but I didn't make particularly clear what I did mean was random, and for that I apologise. The random stuff about voting as many people as possible in oredr to look back after the game and say I told you so was the random stuff.

Anyway. You didn't answer my second question.

[Shanba]

I favour YB lynch at the moment. He's on my list of persons to not allow to live until endgame because he's very difficult to get a read on (He always seems to be scummy to me), and I am following this strategy henceforth in all games I am in with YB (this is because I have lost 2 endgames with YB, and both of us were town on both the occasions)

Urgh. I dun like this argument here too much. Your reason for wanting to lynch him is weak (you don't even think he's scum, necessarily) and you coincedntally want the player wiht the most votes to be lynched.

Unvote, Vote SirT

I don't find Lemming's and Shanba's exchanging all that alarming. This is mainly because I avoid such outrageous interactions with my scum buddies when I am scum this early in the game. It serves absolutely no purpose except linking both of you subconsciously in the town's collective mind.

This here is WIFOM. It's WIFOM which in this case is true, but it's still WIFOM.

[Shanba]

Urgh. I dun like this argument here too much. Your reason for wanting to lynch him is weak (you don't even think he's scum, necessarily) and you coincedntally want the player wiht the most votes to be lynched. Unvote, Vote SirT

You do realize that I voted for YB

before

any one else voted, don't you? At that time, he had zero votes on him.

Actually, I didn't.

Unvote Vote: YB

Sorry.

And, no, that is not WIFOM. You can generally label any hypothetical case as WIFOM in mafia, which they are not.

Meh. Care to explain why?

[Shanba]

That's actually a pretty fair assessment. I like your logic a lot, now I understand it. I often feel people label things as scummy when they aren't necessarily.

[Shanba]

I assumed your vote for YB was a random vote, given your explanation.

[Shanba]

Mod Edit: Vote Count

YogurtBandit[2](Simenon, Shanba)
Jex[2](Per, Crub)
Simenon[1](Samruc)
Lemming1607[1](Khelvaster)
Crub[1](Jex)
Sir Tornado[1](EmpTyger)
Shanba[1](Sir Tornado)

Not Voting[2](YogurtBandit, Lemming1607)

*fixed, thanks Simenon*

Empy, if you believe me poor at distancing please refer to Tapioca mafia mini normal.

[Shanba]

Unvote

The case there was on YB was weak. I voted for him and I admit that. Why, therefore, is this wagon growing this quickly and is this big? Unhappy bout that.

unvote vote lemming

[Shanba]

^_o

Unvote Vote: SrT

[Shanba]

I do not agree with policy lynches. Also, wth is the point in unvoting him if you're just going to revote him later?

[Shanba]

EBWOP: If you intend on lynching him anyway.

[Shanba]

FOS: Shanba

Shanba, like Lemming pointed out in this post:

What? You were one of the earliest proponents of starting a bandwagon on Yogurt. Now that's it at lynch -1, you're unhappy about your bandwagon?

Yup. Not every bandwagon has the intention of lynching, like not every vote. Besides, the wagon was moving way too quickly.

I think this was very bad timing on Shanba's part:

The case there was on YB was weak. I voted for him and I admit that. Why, therefore, is this wagon growing this quickly and is this big? Unhappy bout that.

unvote vote lemming

If Shanba's case on YB was weak, I find it inconsistant to drop out of a lynch -1 situation at this time.

Um, if I think the wagon is weak, it's inconsistent to unvote? How do you twist logic to make that work :S.

[Shanba]

Um, if I think the wagon is weak, it's inconsistent to unvote? How do you twist logic to make that work :S.

I wasn't twisting logic, not at all.
Did you just recently realize your case against YB was bad and pull out? That would make sense.
But I didn't get the point of unvoting so late.

Ah, I get you now. I wondered how you thought unvoting was scummy in that situation, it didn't occur to me that it was unvoting so late that you were querying.

Anyway. My vote was mostly unsubstantiated. Putting pressure on a player I'm not sure on is not a bad move. Not all votes have the intent of lynching, as I said before. Yet SirT's clearly did. Which I felt was odd, given the strength of the case.

[Shanba]

Crub, you are like a broken record. Do you actually have anything on Sim or are you voting him for the heck of it? Or maybe it's just OMGUS?

I personally don't think Simenon is deserving of the wagon on him. He's not a bad vote, but I'd put him at least 4th or 5th on my list.

[Shanba]

Sammich's logic is unimpressive. Samruc's is better. Don't think either are great lynches right now, though I'd favour Sammich over Samruc. especilly don't like him saying he doesn't OMGUS and then FoSsing Samruc in what amounts to OMGUS. Actually, I just convinced myself.

Unvote vote: Sammich

[Shanba]

Please don't speculate on who's a mason, that'SJust common sense

[Shanba]

Mod Edit: Vote Count

Crub[2](Jex, Simenon)
Simenon[2](Crub, Lemming1607)
Sammich[2](Samruc, Shanba)
Lemming1607[1](Per)
Samruc[1](ChaosOmega)
Shanba[1](Sammich)

Not Voting[2](AlSleet, Sir Tornado)

---

Recall: All bolded votes count. Anything else doesn't count. I cannot and will not attempt to interpret "intent"; make sure to format your votes and posts correctly if you want to be sure your vote is where you intend it to be.

Also, day one has gone on quite long... I'll give you a few more days, and then a deadline (probably for October 1) is likely.

If you want me to prod anyone, let me know.

Please don't speculate on who's a mason, that'SJust common sense

Why not?
If we knew who masons were, we'd be able to cross off three names off the "Maybe Mafia" list.
Although the Mason revealing would mean NK for Mafia.
Are you a Mason trying to keep under the radar? I doubt it.
Suddenly you seem so scummy, looking back on your posts.

It's an idiotic move? Speculating on who you think the masons are gives the scum valuable clues about who the masons actually are, and that's not a good thing. Do you honestly believe that revealing the masons d1 is a good idea? They're much more useful later days, left alive. If one is in danger of being lynched, they'll claim. We don't need to cross them off the list because they will cross themselves off the list if they need to, without revealing to the scum good nightkill targets.

Sammich's logic is unimpressive. Samruc's is better. Don't think either are great lynches right now, though I'd favour Sammich over Samruc. especilly don't like him saying he doesn't OMGUS and then FoSsing Samruc in what amounts to OMGUS. Actually, I just convinced myself. Unvote vote: Sammich

Suddenly you agree with Samruc.
Coming from the guy who says:

Anyway. My vote was mostly unsubstantiated. Putting pressure on a player I'm not sure on is not a bad move.

Not all votes have the intent of lynching, as I said before.

Yet SirT's clearly did. Which I felt was odd, given the strength of the case.

Suddenly you feel the need to vote me only after Samruc's post? What's up with that?

Your attack on Samruc is weak, much like this attack on me which simply places a bunch of quotes together and claims them to be inconsistent when if you think for a moment you'll see they're not.

Did this have the makings of a lynch intent? The only real reason for a YB lynch was that YB hadn't posted in reply to suspicion.

[/quote] Early attacks on players for little reason give good info, whereas attacking a player late in the day based on craplogic makes you look scummy.

Even more, what's with this? It's not in the same context as my last quote, in which you said:

Putting pressure on a player I'm not sure on is not a bad move.

Unvote

The case there was on YB was weak. I voted for him and I admit that. Why, therefore, is this wagon growing this quickly and is this big? Unhappy bout that. unvote vote lemming

That makes that post absolutely bullcrap. How can you be unhappy with an unsure BW on YogurtBandit and then say voting while unsure is fine?

Voting=pressure, pressure=info, voting =/= bandwagoning to lynch, lynching =lack of info. which is what Sir T clearly wanted and why my vote was on him for so long. Bandwagons give us info pressuring players gives us info, quicklynching a player on a weak case ends the day and stops us accumulating info. The two are not equivalent, and one is clearly superior. SirT was watning the second, ad the wagon was getting dangerously close to lynch, so I unvoted and voted SirT. This is simple common sense.

Vote: Shanba

Just really inconsistant. Don't take this as an OMGUS, I have my reasons as to vote you.

You're really reaching to make that not OMGUS. Really, really reaching.

[Shanba]

Wth?
I think there's a bandwagon on me beginning to form.
Opportunistic scum, take notice.

Nice observation.

Are you quoting this for truth? Because it is pure appeal to emotion. Not to mention, no one has even voted him since he stated it.

[Shanba]

Unvote Vote: Alsleet

I

know

you can do better than this

[Shanba]

Actually, screw pressuring the lurkers.

Unvote Vote: Sammich

. Diescumdie.

[Shanba]

gahdamn. Crub and Sammich are almost equally bad here.

Unvote Vote: crub

I prefer the company on that wagon (for one thing it doesn't have crub on it)

[Shanba]

so how come the last two pages or so everyone is just unvoting/voting the two leaders and nothing is getting accomplished.

Also it'd be nice to hear people's thoughts on the two bandwagons

I think the Crub wagon is weak. And I'm not willing to put my vote on Sammich either. My prime candidate is actually Shanba. I find his play erratic and I don't like it.

Then vote me.

[Shanba]

Sammich, I don't respond to loaded questions.

[Shanba]

Then vote me.

A townie doesn't ask for votes, how many times do I need to say this?

This was more to point out that he was being stupid about his suspicions on me than anything else (calling me most suspicious, but not voting me.)

[Shanba]

I'm sorry, but this:

FOS Shanba

Did you NK Sir T to put the extra heat on me you couldn't achieve during day 1?

is a ridiculous question. It uses WIFOM about nightkills, makes an assumption about alignments and is completely useless. Not to mention, I only attacked you once yesterday, and with the way you're playing, it would be completely unnecessary. To hell with this.

Vote: Sammich

Diescumdie. Noone else is even

close

[Shanba]

I'm sorry, but this:

FOS Shanba

Did you NK Sir T to put the extra heat on me you couldn't achieve during day 1?

is a ridiculous question. It uses WIFOM about nightkills, makes an assumption about alignments and is completely useless. Not to mention, I only attacked you once yesterday, and with the way you're playing, it would be completely unnecessary. To hell with this.

Vote: Sammich

Poorly drawn OMGUS? I don't think so, but:
Mafia is basically a game about assumptions. You don't know who scum is, and you have to assume someone is scum by their actions and the process of elimination, etc. etc. etc.
It doesn't matter if you attacked me once or a thousand times. I'm not going to put off my vote or try to get defensive. I still think you're scum and if I get lynched for my suspicions or the way I play, FOS's or not, then so be it.

Way to completely miss my point

[Shanba]

Way to completely miss my point

All you had to do was answer a simple "yes" or "no" question.

If you were trying to misunderstand me you couldn't be doing a batter job

[Shanba]

As I've said for the hammer, I was just tired of the day and I found them both good options. We weren't getting anywhere, and the mod was threatening a deadline. I decided we'd gone on long enough and it was time to move the game forward.

I would like to know where you find my argument on sammich stretching though. He FoS'd 4 people, and there's 3 scum...that's blatant spaghetti strategy

While there are only 3 mafia members, there are still 10 possible mafia (9 if one doesn't count themself). Sammich FOSed people for the reasons he found them suspicious. He wanted answers. I don't see anything wrong with that. If he were to simply lay a vote on, then he would have to flop around to get all the answers he wanted instead of just doing it all in one post. I know I tend to do that type of a thing a lot, and I don't see it as scummy.

P.S. - I'm by no means saying I don't think Sammich is scummy, I'm just saying I don't think that particular strategy is scummy.

Eh. You made the point I wanted to make myself about his FoSses (i.e. that to a townie is possible scum), but I would note that the questios he asked and the way he asked them is scummy, and is one of the reasons I am pursuing him.

[Shanba]

1: the question you asked me was loaded.
2: the first question you asked Simenon was loaded. The second question you asked Simenon was manipulative in that it tries to pre-empt any attacks he makes on you today as scummy. Actually, this applies to the question you asked me too.
3: the question you asked Lemming you provided an answer in the question itself, thus stripping it of any worth, when it could have been a useful avenue of exploration today.

[Shanba]

happy scumday

[Shanba]

Sim - I was forced to replace Alsleet as a vig in my mini normal, but I believe he had personal issues at the time.

[Shanba]

Sammich, wake up. If you're town, your posts are actively detrimental in their quality. Please try and actually give us something to work with - if, by chance, you are a townie you get lynched at this point your wagon will not give us much information, because you seem to basically have given up.

[Shanba]

Phate I don't feel it necessary to respond. I like the way you've brought a fresh perspective, especially towards ChaosOmega, who was not really on my radar. I still prefer a Sammich wagon, with whose play I have been entirely dissatified this game.

OTOH, I don't think your case against Sim is as strong as you seem to believe - having played with him before, and, moreover, other similarly experienced players many of them seem to get bored with conventional playing styles (or don't believe them to be as effective as possible) and change things up a bit. Judging from his replies, I'd guess he made a conscious decision to bandwagon this game - making it a nulltell. OTOH, it does make it very difficult to dsicern his alignment, which might be a problem in future (though I have afeeling it will work itself out - these things often tend to).

[Shanba]

Sammich has had time to respond, he's wasted it, now he's being sent to the back of the class. I don't blame people for voting for him, frankly, though I admit I am glad he is finally doing something, and perhaps should be given some reprieve while he finishes some sort of analysis. That being said, I agree with Lemming's reason for voting for him. Exactly why he took so long to respond bugs me too. He's still my top suspect, that's a given. One thing after another, it's all built up. I don't see my self leaving this wagon.

The gist of what I was trying to say is - phate, I don't think your reaction is warranted.

[Shanba]

Was it intentional to leave Per off your opinion list? Gotta say, distinctly underwhelmed, though.

First up - why did you choose to look at, specifically, the one post you made retracting your attack on Sim, and the one active lurky post of Per's? It seems an odd choice, frankly. What's the point in singling out these two posts? What new insights do your views on them give?

Second - Note that Jex is referring to two different things in those two posts. The first is the fact that you FoSsed lots of people, the second is the content of the questions. I don't see the problem with that, especially as she explained her logic.

Third - WTF? Why did you take the time to quote phate's fairly comprehensive analysis of you, then choose to bold one fairly unimportant line and call it WIFOM? Perhaps, you know, defending yourself against the rest of his points might help. Also, phate explained his logic about the masons thing. And if you look, I never callled you scummy for it, just told you that it was a bad idea.

Fourth - did you even read phate's post to lemming? Phate says he doesn't want a quicklynch, which is fair enough, rather than discouraging your lynch. Especially given you had promised content, this is an understandable reaction. In fact, what differs his WTF from your WTF?

Fifthly - that post was about you failing to do anything until I poked you about it and you made your post about pulling a crub.

As for your alst suspicion list - it's useless. Currently, even if you came up town no one would give it a second glance because it's completely unsubstantiated. If you want to make an impact, back up your suspicions here (this is an open invitation to Simenon too, btw.)

[Shanba]

I think it's more that the sentence is incomprehensible ^^

diescumdie, btw.

[Shanba]

I'm not sure mass roleclaim is in order - surely, if a mason is about to be lynched, they can just claim? It's not like the wagon would be useless, anyway - we would gain more info from it.

I am currently against a massclaim. As for who's scum... hrm. I agree with Sim - Phate feels town to me. However, I'm not sure who the scum are. I could see lemmingscum, COscum, Perscum, or Samrucscum

[Shanba]

Correct. I do not in any way regret the Sammich lynch - he was by far the scummiest player in the game.

[Shanba]

methinks it's cause he thinks you're scum.

[Shanba]

I simply cannot read Shanba. His posts are incredibly elusive, his voting record hard to comprehend. I want him to clarify who he suspects right now.

Sammich. No, I'm only partly joking. I'm findng it very difficult to move to a worldview where he isn't scum.

However, I ave thought about it, and if you forced me to pick I would choose phate and Samruc as my townie (still just about would pick Phate despite his somewhat erratic play today). That leaves Lemming, CO and Per. Not sure which of those I suspect most, though - and samruc is nearly with them down there. I'd have to reread if you want anything more coherent.

[Shanba]

I apologise. I got about halfway through day 1 on my readthrough before giving up, but I did find some interesting things. Remind me to speak to you when I'm not really damn tired.

[Shanba]

OK. I reread the game and decided that the most useful thing to do was to look for connections - given we have 3 scum left, this is the best way to go about things. First, here are all the possible two player partnerships:

Phate/Samruc
Phate/Lemming
Phate/CO
Phate/Per
Samruc/Lemming
Samruc/CO
Samruc/Per
Lemming/CO
Lemming/Per
CO/Per

Now, looking at Phate's posts, Phate/CO seems very unlikely - it doesn't feel like distancing, and there was no need to bus. Phate/Lemming also seems unlikely - considering lemming was under a lot of pressure, I don't see him being so blatant about defending him. I also feel that Phate/Samruc is an unlikely combo. This means that I can only have Phate as scum with one other person, when he should have two scumbuddies. This only reinforces my impression that he is town.

Samruc/Lemming is a definite possibility - a few of Samruc's earlier posts towards Lemming definitely feel like distancing. And his latest post also feels off to me, as if he's trying to decide whether he should bus or not. I could see Samruc/CO - Samruc needles him a bit, but there's no really strong pressuring there. OTOH, the interaction Phate pointed out in his big analysis where CO seems to try and get Samruc to vote Crub does not really feel scumbuddyish. However, not discounting this one. Samruc/Per... eh. There's almost no interaction here.

Lemming/CO not only feels possible, but very likely. CO's attempt to link Lemming to Phate in his responses to Phate's analysis especially feel bad. They're also the two players who are scummiest individually - some of Lemming's comments are awfulscummy, and looking back I note that CO has comitted my favourite scumtell (I can't believe I missed that before.) Lemming/Per. Hmm. Interesting. Per's early interaction with Lemming seems genuine - the unvote more than the vote (which seems a little weak). I don't think it's an impossible pairing, but I'd count it as unlikely.

CO/Per - CO barely mentions Per. Per has an interesting little interaction where he seems fixated on the case that Phate made against Per while somehow not really committing to it.

So that leaves:

Phate/Per
Samruc/Lemming
Samruc/CO
Samruc/Per

Lemming/CO

Lemming/Per

Per/CO

blue for pairings I don't like much, red for pairings I do like. But there are three scum - that gives us some different things to analyse.

Samruc/Lemming/CO
Samruc/Lemming/Per
Samruc/CO/Per
Lemming/Per/CO

are the groups I am left with. If we look at the possible two player pairings and see which have likely pairings and which have unlikely pairings we get:

Samruc/Lemming/CO

Samruc/Lemming/Per

Samruc/CO/Per

Lemming/Per/CO

As before, except with orange for a pairing with both an unlikely component and a likely component. Now to look at these pairings as possibilities given the game so far. The most informative way to do this is to look at vote counts. Not all of them are useful - I've picked those I feel are most informative.

Samruc/Lemming/CO
Page 5 Vote Count:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon

,

Samruc, Lemming1607,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1]([colo=green]Per[/color])

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

)

This is definitely a distribution I could see for the scum.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)


Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado

,

Samruc

)

Note - a minor modification here (swapped round SirT and Samruc's names) to make the tags easier. Will be doing this throughout this section.)

I chose this vote count because of something interesting - in the page precedent, all votes on Crub would have been green. CO's jumped on a bandwagon driven by townies. This one strongly suggests CO is scum, independent of his partners. This holds for all the groups with CO in, as it would not change the Crub voters status. However, again the distribution for scum votes is right.

Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

) (

Noted here to show this supports Simenon's claim.

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Now this one is interesting to note that CO is now voting for Samruc. The red on red here is not an unusual distancing pattern for scum, and notably there hasn't been a single red on green since the random voting stage. This implies that the scum were interested in pushing bandwagons - that CO jumped off one then is significant. It makes sense to think that this is a scumbuddy interaction.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, Per,

Lemming1607, ChaosOmega

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

Again, it is notable that the red is fluid here, moving to the bandwagon of the lynchee with dangerous ease.

Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Not a very interesting vote count, but still shows the same distribution patterns I would expect. Useful as a d2 benchmark.

Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Per, Jex,

Samruc

)

Interestingly, when Lemming votes for Sammich, Samruc unvotes. It could be that Samruc does not want a quicklynch or it could be that Samruc does not want to be on the wagon with his partner. This votecount is also notable for the two quick votes leading to a Sammich lynch half a page later (although one was Sammich :\)

End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

,

Sammich, Phate

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Per, Jex

,

Samruc

)

For once, I would say I'm not convinced by the distribution of votes here. I would have expected another scum on the wagon - it could be that Sammich's selfvote stopped that being possible.

Samruc/CO/Per

Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon

, Samruc,

Lemming1607, Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

Not Voting[2](

YogurtBandit, Crub

)

Okay then. In this vote count, we would have two scum with random or semi-random votes still on. It's not as nice a distribution as for the other one, but I'd still call it a possible one.

Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)



Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Samruc

)

The lone red on green here makes me think this is fairly unlikely. As I said before, red on green outside of random stage is not a particularly common thing. Minus points for this grouping from this vote count. Also would expect more red on the crubwagon by now.


Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Functionally, this one is fairly similar to the last one. However, not only is there a lone red on green, there's also the red on red. I don't see one scum lonevoting a townie while the other one distances from a scumbuddy the same way. Again, minus points.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, Lemming1607,

ChaosOmega, Per

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

This one works out better. Especially Per's late vote on the wagon. I think this vote count supports a CO/Per/Samruc grouping more than a Samruc/Lemming/CO grouping. That being said, the other vote counts support the Samruc/Lemming/CO grouping more so far.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Meh. Again, this is possible - the data here is skewed by the lack of votes from Per or Lemming. Given that Per was inactive whereas Lemming wasn't, I count this a point against this grouping.


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

, Lemming1607[/color])

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex

Samruc, Per

)

No scum on the Sammich wagon? Samruc's unvote doesn't make much sense if this is the grouping. If this were the grouping and Samruc wanted to look townie, I would have expected him to move to another wagon. This vote count is a major blow.

End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Lemming1607, Sammich, Phate

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Jex

,

Samruc, Per

)

No way in hell did scum decide not to push the Sammich wagon when he was such an easy lynch. CO's vote and Samruc's unvote make no sense, and Per's lack of any voting at all seem bizarre. This grouping seems very unlikely from this votecount.

Lemming/Per/CO


Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon, Samruc,

Lemming1607,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

This votecount is quite meh for the grouping, but still a possibility.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Samruc

)

Mm. This one would imply early distancing by Per by lonevoting a scumbuddy. I could see that - CO seems to pick up on it later on and copy Per. This VC fits quite nicely with this grouping


Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

We have the red on green again here. However, Phate has given a reasonable explanation for why COscum might vote Samructown here. This one is still possible.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba,

ChaosOmega, Per, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc, Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)
All the scum on the Crubwagon? I'm not convinced. Scum don't often like to put all their eggs in one basket. Per's -1 followed by Lemming's hammer seems unlikely here.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)

Not a distribution I would expect from the scum at this point. Frankly, if this were the case I would expect jumps on the Sammich wagon from Per and Lemming in short order. I would also expect CO to consider jumping to the Sammich wagon here.


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)


Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex, Samruc,

Per

)

This seems more plausible. Lemming

has

jumped on the Sammichwagon. But again, there's a lack of Per. Given that Per posted last page, I'd have expected an easy townie vote from him here.


End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Sammich, Phate

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Jex, Samruc

,

Per

)

Eh. This has the same problems for this grouping as the two last VCs.

Just one more left (phew) Samruc/Lemming/Per


Page 5 VC:

YogurtBandit

[4](

Simenon,

Lemming1607, Samruc,

Sir Tornado

)

Lemming1607

[2](

Khelvaster, Shanba

)

Jex

[1](

Per

)

Crub

[1](

Jex

)

Khelvaster

[1](

EmpTyger

Not Voting[2](

YogurtBandit, Crub

)

This one works for this grouping. The Samruc/Lemming thing here especially.


Page 8 Vote Count:

Crub

[4](

Jex

,

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon, Sammich

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sir Tornado

[1](

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado

,

Samruc

)

What, no scum on a d1 4 person wagon? Psh. Seems very unlikely. Lemming's vote especially feels odd here - why vote the difficult Simenon wagon when Crub is a very easy vote indeed, and there are no scum there to risk being linked to? Also, I don't see Per keeing his distancing vote on with such a tempting target offered.

Page 10 Vote Count:

Crub

[2](

Jex, Simenon

)

Simenon

[2](

Crub

,

Lemming1607

)

Sammich

2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Per

)

Samruc

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

The double red on red here is unlikely. I would expect at most one scum to be distancing here, rather than both, especially when there are wagons to push.


End of d1:

Crub

[6](

Jex, Simenon, Shanba, ChaosOmega,

Per, Lemming1607

)

Sammich

[2](

Samruc,

Crub

)

Not Voting[3](

AlSleet, Sir Tornado, Sammich

)

This distribution here is certainly possible. 2 scum on one wagon while another pushes a second mislynch.


Page 14 Vote Count:

Sammich

[2](

Samruc

,

Shanba

)

Phate

[2](

ChaosOmega

,

Simenon

)

Shanba

[1](

Sammich

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Jex

)

Not Voting[3](

Phate

,

Lemming1607

,

Per

)
Meh. This one is OK. Works with the grouping, works without. It works better with Lemming's vote on the wagon:


Page 16:

Sammich

[3](

Shanba, Simenon

,

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Lemming1607

[1](

Sammich

)

Not Voting[4](

Phate, Jex,

Samruc,

Per

)

As I said, with Lemming's vote on the wagon this makes more sense. Why? In this grouping, lemming has been the one jumping on wagons - see the crubwagon twice. In which case, Samruc, who has played a fairly cautious game, would not want to be associated with Lemming, nor with wagoning.


End of d2:
Sammich[5](

Shanba, Simenon, Sammich, Phate

Lemming1607

)

Phate

[1](

ChaosOmega

)

Not Voting[3](

Per, Samruc,

Jex

)
This section gives me rtoubles with every votecount. I would say that CO's vote makes more sense here as town, however.

So here is my conclusion:

Samruc/Lemming/CO is not only nice for the individual pairings, but also for the whole. Nearly all the vote counts fit this pairing best, and it has the Lemming/CO pairing in it. This is definitely my top pick.

Samruc/CO/Per has some good points going for it. A couple of the vote counts fit it nigh perfectly, and most of the others work fairly well. There are no unusual pairings in it, either, though it does not have the Lemming/CO pairing.

Lemming/Per/CO
Samruc/Lemming/Per: Neither of these groupings make much sense to me. Too many of the vote counts are odd if you use these pairings. Lemming/Per/CO is mor likely than Samruc/Lemming/Per, though.

Breaking it back down into individuals:

Phate: Probably not scum. I do not see him playing the way he has as scum.

Samruc: Interestingly, he fits my analyses best as a scumpartner. However, individually he is not particularly scummy. Eh. Probable scum.

Lemming: Does not fit the groupings as well as I thought, but the vota analysis shows that individually he is scummy - he often jumps on a big wagon when it is in full flow. Also, his interactions with CO are scummy. Probable scum.

CO: His voting record is not as scummy as Lemming, but the case that Phate brought against him yesterday still applies today. This, combined with the fact that he is in all the most likely groupings, makes me think he's very likely scum.

Per: Eh. Has not been as active as I'd like, but overall, his posts feel town. His voting record is OK (a couple of thigns give me pause for thought, but not much) and he doesn't fit my most likely grouping. Probably town.

[Shanba]

I did consider Per's activity level, but for many of the votecounts he had made his megapost a page or so before. Also, CO has been fairly inactive, and it does not appear to have messed with the vote counts too much.

Vote: ChaosOmega

He's the one I'm most certain about - scummy individually, scummy pairings, in both of my favoured groupings.

[Shanba]

Unvote

Sim, what are you getting at?

[Shanba]

I see Sim. So really, you're just winding me up.

Vote: CO

then.

[Shanba]

Well, no surprises with that kill. I'mma go with Fonz, personally, as he's the one I'm most sure of. I'd like everyone to check in first before we begin voting, though.

[Shanba]

Also, phate continues to suck up to Shanba at a quite nauseating rate.

Way to hit the only thing that worries me about phate

[Shanba]

Right.

Vote Fonz

. With any luck, I didn't just lose the game - but I don't think I did.

[Shanba]

Unvote

Way to make me really, really nervous :\

[Shanba]

Blah.

Vote Fonz

Phate, if you're scum, I hate you, but well played :\

[Shanba]

Mod Post: End of Day Vote Count

The Fonz[3](Sikario8, Shanba, Phate)

Not Voting[2](Samruc, The Fonz)

---

The Fonz, mafia

, was lynched.

Send in night choice(s) within 48 hours max, I'll start day tomorrow if I have everything by then

Well, at the very least, if you're scum so is fonz

[Shanba]

Alas.

Time to join my siblings in paradise, I guess.

[Shanba]

I hate you Shanba.

Charming. Hey, at least I got you some scum eventually :\

[Shanba]

Thoughts:

Town was essentially hindered by two mislynches that were completely unavoidable from the way the players had been playing up until that point. If I saw that same behaviour again from another player, yes I would lynch it. Maybe not so much crub, who I wasn't sure on, but deffo Sammich. As such, we were in lylo before we even started.

Lemming/CO as a scumgroup was virtually a given. My analysis stating that was nothing really new - it was the third party that was crucial. As such, it failed. Per did well to avoid being linked to his scumpartners. Phate was overly hasty once he thought he knew, but I'm fairly sure it wouldn't have made any difference if he'd sat down and thought it over anyway. And at least the endgame wasn't long and dithering.

I'm surprised there wasn't more pressure put on my analysis. There were some flaws in it, but noone really looked at them - Sim pointed out one as did Fonz. I suppose the fact that it came to the wrong conclusion mean the scum didn't need to attack it. Hrm. Well, nevermind.

I managed to breadscumb simenon but not Jex. Funny that. Also, the night Jex died we thought that if anyone it was going to be me. Eh. I think I'd have liked Jex alive those last days, if simply because I think her analysis would have been useful.

I seriously had no idea who was scum going into day 3. I literally built up all my suspicions from scratch in that one post. It was quite fun, really. Heh. In future, I would do it differently - first player by player, then pairings, then groupings then rbeak it down to pairings again and then individuals.

That's the second time Friends and Enemies has gone to a 3p endgame. I really like it as a setup. The two scum wins could not be more different, though XD.

[Shanba]

I'm surprised there wasn't more pressure put on my analysis. There were some flaws in it, but noone really looked at them - Sim pointed out one as did Fonz. I suppose the fact that it came to the wrong conclusion mean the scum didn't need to attack it. Hrm. Well, nevermind.

Not being funny, but I've NEVER seen that kind of analysis work. It's most commonly associated with mneme, who at the end of every game makes a big long self-justifying post on how how his analysis WOULD have worked had scum bussed just a little less, or if he'd read that post a little differently, of if he had managed to avoid getting lynched.

It was Per's inactivity that mucked it up. Obviously <.<

Rest assured: I'd have been all over it if town. As scum, there was no point, since I couldn't possibly get you lynched, and what's my argument gonna be: No, REALLY, I AM scum with Per?

See, the thing is I had no idea how else to get myself back in the game again. I wasn't expecting it to be taken as gospel. Not that I was unhappy, but there we go with the ego thing <.<

[Shanba]

Sad day. I was really hoping the town would pull it off. Shanba, way to represent the masons in the end, you did us proud . I was surprised that the mafia chose to kill me when I did. I was almost positive that I would die of being lynched (well, have to claim my role). I looked incredibly scummy the time I was alive. I guess it goes to show that you can never truly predict a mafia.

Eh

Honestly, the only thing I did was concretise the path the town was going on and pave it a whole load of words and numbers. I mean, I felt it was a good play, but it's not as good as it's being made out here. Case in point that it failed to catch all the scum ^^