Mini 452 NBA All-Stars Mafia-Game Over!

[Adam The Amazing]

Well, everyone's posted since YB's roleblocker claim. Since nobody tried to deter by saying they're a doc (and I'm not the doc), I guess I want to hear a bit more from SP. I think a cop and/or doctor claim would be VERY good in this situation. However, if we do have a roleblocker, that also means we have a probably also have a GF (since one person goes to do the kill). Since the other two mafia weren't the GF, that would mean a remaining mafia member is.

What concerns me is 1) how quickly this is escalating. Either SP is mafia or someone currently voting for him is, barring some freak situation. 2) We have an even number of people, and we're pushing hard for a lynch. If TCS/Inhim and YB are the last two scum (assuming there were four to begin with; unlikely with no cop, but still possible), that means we're effectively at Lylo, should we choose to string someone up today. Here's what I think...

If we follow this strategy: YB, you roleblock SP again tonight. We no-lynch. If everyone's still alive, we string him up.
There's no real reason to lynch with six that's better than lynching with five, as far as I know.

Thoughts?

[inHimshallibe]

I'm actually going to hold off on this vote until TCS posts again.

unvote

[The Central Scrutinizer]

No-lynching confirms nothing. If yogurt is lying scum, he can simply no-kill. We should just lynch sonic and then lynch yogurt if sonic isn't scum.

[Sonicpulsar]

No-lynching confirms nothing. If yogurt is lying scum, he can simply no-kill. We should just lynch sonic and then lynch yogurt if sonic isn't scum.

I really have to wonder about the fact that no one else has stepped up claiming roleblocker and no one has stated they're a cop or doctor. I find it hard to believe that the only power role in the game was a mason maker, short of some weird, uncommon one.

But, I've read a few games where it was a logical fallacy to assume anything about the actual power role makeup of a game so I'm going to try not to let this affect me too much.

I'm not entirely sure I can come up with a sufficient reason not to have myself lynched today. The only clear alternative would be to lynch Yogurt today and if he's a roleblocker, then lynch me. But that means lynching our roleblocker, which seems stupid. Unfortunately for me, I'm the litmus test for Yogurt's claim.

I guess I'll try and think of any good reason to vote any of the other 4 people. I'd like to hear from Fletcher, since he hasn't really contributed anything. Inhim has only made a couple of one or two line posts, but they've at least been logical.

I roleblocked Sonic Pulsar last night. Any docs wanna claim a protection, do it now, or lets Lynch SP. lynch me if you want, I will die to prove SP is lying.

Upon rereading the last page, I'm kinda confused by this. Lynching you would in no way prove I was lying. In fact, it'd only prove if you were lying or telling the truth. I mean, it'd lend credit to the idea that I was lying, but it wouldn't prove anything. As I stated before, scum could have easily not NKed (although I believe this to be unlikely).

Also upon rereading, I just noticed that the two people I asked to hear more from are the two people currently voting for me. Perhaps Adam has it right that one of you is scum.

FOS Fletcher and Inhim

[Sonicpulsar]

Sorry for the double posts.

Adam brought up a scenario I didn't mention earlier because I didn't think anyone else thought it was a strong possiblity, the possibility of there being 4 mafia at the beginning (thus 2 now).

Throughout the entire game, no one has acted like they really thought there were 4 mafia at the beginning. If we had, we would have been damn near lylo (assuming no power role interference) a long time ago. Look at Day 2: 9 people, 4 mafia. Day 3: 7 people, 3 mafia. No one thought it was a strong possiblity back then, I tend to think the same now.

[Adam The Amazing]

No-lynching confirms nothing. If yogurt is lying scum, he can simply no-kill. We should just lynch sonic and then lynch yogurt if sonic isn't scum.

The middle part could be true: however, if we have a cop that has simply not yet come forward, then this could give them another night to check out someone; more than that, if YB is scum and uses this tactic, it's a night free of killing. It's a WIFOM, because YB would need to decide whether it's worth it or not to kill: if there's a cop, he would need to kill. If there's no cop, abstaining would be a good idea.

I would really enjoy a cop coming forward now. Even if we can only clear people, not even necessarily get a guilty, it would force YB into making a decision one way or another if we no-lynched.

I still think we should no-lynch. That way, if there are two mafia, then a cop could investigate and potentially get at least one guilty (since one can't be the GF): also, it would give us five people to choose from instead of six. I think I would die, since I feel like I'm very low on people's scumlists, but I'm okay with that. I really enjoyed hammering one scum one day and then being part of a lynch on a second the following day.

Also, I really don't like SP's posts since YB claimed roleblocker. They're vague, they're noncommittal, and it doesn't seem like he has any hope of living. Basically, it feels scummy to me. Does anyone else feel like his posts have changed? Or is it just that I thought he was very townie before?

[Sonicpulsar]

I'd love it if you gave some examples of where I've been vague. I honestly feel like I've been the exact opposite of vague and stated everything as clearly as I possibly could. I've detailed the scenarios I think are likely and what their likely outcomes would be, etc.

I'm waiting to hear back from the two guys who voted for me but have yet to make any posts with real content in them before I commit to something.

Saying that you think you will die if there's a no lynch because you feel like you're low on everyone's scum list seems....scummy to me. I think it's a good rule of thumb to not state what you think other's people views of yourself are, be you a scum or townie. It usually makes people look scummy.

I don't think no-lynch is a good idea.

Bah, rereading this post, I sound defensive.

[Adam The Amazing]

Why is no-lynch a bad idea?

...I also thought up, what if SonicPulsar is a scum buddy with either TCS or Inhim? With that, it would mean YB could block SP, but the other one could be the one to kill, making that theory useless. I'm going to say I think there are enough loopholes to disregard that plan I had.

[inHimshallibe]

schismatized

(6): (

Haschel Cedricson

, Sonicpulsar, inHimshallibe, Adam The Amazing,

xyzzy

, YogurtBandit)
Adam The Amazing (2): (

Xdaamno

,

schismatized

)

Haschel Cedricson

(1): (The Central Scrutinizer)

Xdaamno

(1): (

IH

)
Sonicpulsar (0):

xyzzy

(0):
inHimshallibe (0):
Fletcher (0):
YogurtBandit (0):

IH

(0):
The Central Scrutinizer (0):

Not Voting (1): (Fletcher)

That is the Day 1 final vote count. Only thing I can really get out of it is that I think TCS is OK. I think maybe the N-L votes might be more worthy to look at, but there were a lot of Not Voting, which doesn't help for mid-Day reviews. If there

are

two scum left, I'd bet one of them is between Fletcher and TCS, because I just don't think 3 of 4 scum would be on the lynchwagon. Because TCS is isolated on a pro-town player, I think it makes him more likely to be Town, but I also feel good about him from just his posts in general.

[inHimshallibe]

And the next morning... I have a couple more thoughts - I was waiting for TCS to post because I really thought he might be the Doc. I'm also one post away from demanding our Cop come forward if he has at least one living investigation result - it might be enough, in my mind, to wrap this up for good... I just need to think about it for a bit.

[YogurtBandit]

If no docs are cops claim, we Lynch Sonic.

If there are... hmm.

[Sonicpulsar]

If no docs are cops claim, we Lynch Sonic.

If there are... hmm.

So wait, you can be a doctor and a cop at the same time? I'm confused...what if we have a cop who's a doctor? Does that count? Or do you have to be a doctor first?

Just kidding.

[Fletcher]

If we follow this strategy: YB, you roleblock SP again tonight. We no-lynch. If everyone's still alive, we string him up.
There's no real reason to lynch with six that's better than lynching with five

And the reason for the mafia to do a no kill again would be...?

I'm waiting to hear back from the two guys who voted for me but have yet to make any posts with real content in them before I commit to something.

You've got enough content for the both of us.

I think we are thinking about this too much. I could be wrong but it looks like scum on a silver platter to me. I don't like this over-thinking.

[Sonicpulsar]

I think what Adam is trying to say (I'm gonna put some words in his mouth here) is that HE thinks we should no-lynch, have YB roleblock me again and if everyone's still alive, then lynch me. If YB is still alive after Night, you'd lynch me under the assumption that I was roleblocked from killing YB.

The first fallacy in this argument (assuming I'm scum) is that we haven't discussed what would happen should I try to kill YB. Would it go down to when the PMs are sent? Does the roleblocker always have precedence? I honestly don't know, but from what I've read on a few games, "ties" like this are generally reduced to who sent in the PM first.

The second fallacy is simply that I'm not scum (but you need to think about the first fallacy for yourself) and when I'm roleblocked, nothing will happen (I'm vanilla). Since YB will be roleblocking me, it'd leave the perfect opportunity for the scum to kill YB. Unless, of course, there's a doctor, but no one has stepped up yet.

At the conclusion of Night 4, you wouldn't know if I was simply scum who got the PM in first or vanilla who got roleblocked. The only good thing is that you'd know if YB was telling the truth and that might change your view of me (for the positive or negative).

Sitting in your shoes, you cannot know for sure if I'm scum or not (thank you Dr. Obvious) so you have to look at both scenarios. Neither scenario is good for the town and both stem from the idea we'd no-lynch to gain information. The possibility of good info is there, it's just not likely. But I guess it could be better than a town-lynch now.

It's frustrating as hell to realize I'm in a situation where the seemingly best course of action is to lynch me for information when I know a scenario (reason) must exist for why no one was killed on Night 3.

The best I can come up with is that the mafia assumed there was either a roleblocker, a doctor, or both and he hoped with a no Night 3 kill, we'd land in this predicament of either lynching whoever was roleblocked or finding out who the doctor is and who the doctor protected.

Vote: Sonic Pulsar

Not a doc or roleblocker.

Sorry, but I don't consider that content, but definitions may vary. That's the only thing you've posted since Day 4 started besides the previous post.

[YogurtBandit]

Starting to trhink if there is 4 Mafia, That Fletch and SP are partners....

Fletch could be bussing SP with the silver plattere thing. I dont like it.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Starting to trhink if there is 4 Mafia, That Fletch and SP are partners....

Fletch could be bussing SP with the silver plattere thing. I dont like it.

Well, if SP comes up scum and the game isn't over we know that something's up.

This post is very suspicious to me, to be honest.

[Adam The Amazing]

Starting to trhink if there is 4 Mafia, That Fletch and SP are partners....

Fletch could be bussing SP with the silver plattere thing. I dont like it.

A very hearty and scrutinizing

FOS: Yogurtbandit

. I really, really don't like where you're going with this. Those two have been playing like the top townies all game, and I still don't think either of them are mafia. I think SP could have the right of it with his most recent post.

We're going to either no-lynch today or tomorrow, if the game's not over at that time. Why not today?

Also, how common would it be for us to have a roleblocker, but no doc or cop? I don't know what the odds would be on these games, but I'd bet that's pretty low, and here's just a thought: what if YB is the last scum and is able to roleblock or kill, and chose to block who he thought was the cop?

Okay, I'm assuming that we began with 3 mafia, which seems pretty standard.

Post 177.This makes me think that xyzzy accidentally gave away the number of mafia members D1. It's possible he said this even though there were four, but I don't think so. Because of this, I'm going to go against my instinct and say

Vote: SonicPulsar

. Martyr you may be, but I'll be really upset with myself if you're mafia and had me wrapped around your finger.

I'm doing this because Fletcher is right. With a "silver platter," we can scarcely afford to not do this. Also, why in the heck would you try and kill YB if we no-lynched? It would show him to be either the roleblocker or a vanilla townie. With the first, we then lynch you. With the second, you're cleared. If you were mafia, you would kill someone else, thus showing that YB is not a roleblocker and getting him thus lynched. Your last post was not a good one, I feel it ignored a lot of logic, and I'm going to roll the dice.

For other people: would a tie like this really go down to the first PM, or would the roleblocker take precedence? I would ask the mod, but I don't think I'd get an answer, because I don't believe he could answer it one way or another without incriminating someone.

[Adam The Amazing]

One more thing: Nobody has said any other reasons for why nobody died, and not killing is always risky business for the mafia. It's a WIFOM that I am not even going to try to wade into, and I don't think it happened; the odds of a cop are too high.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm doing this because Fletcher is right. With a "silver platter," we can scarcely afford to not do this. Also, why in the heck would you try and kill YB if we no-lynched? It would show him to be either the roleblocker or a vanilla townie. With the first, we then lynch you. With the second, you're cleared. If you were mafia, you would kill someone else, thus showing that YB is not a roleblocker and getting him thus lynched. Your last post was not a good one, I feel it ignored a lot of logic, and I'm going to roll the dice.

I assume this was targetted at me. If we no-lynch and I'm the scum, it'd prove nothing about me after I killed YB (assuming that's possible). The best it would do would confirm that YB wasn't lying. You still wouldn't know if the mafia simply no killed or if I got roleblocked as scum. You'd be setting yourself up for losing YB at night, me during the day based on what you're saying, and another townie at night putting you down 3 townies. Not a good scenario.

I've listed all the logical reasons for why no one died last night.

1. I was roleblocked as scum.
2. Doctor protected the victim. No Doc has come forth.
3. No-kill from the mafia.

You did bring up a fourth option I didn't originally talk about that could possibly be very likely. Especially considering YB's latest few posts.

4. YB could be mafia AND a roleblocker.

It could explain his obvious lurking the entire game coupled with his latest posts. But it doesn't seem likely considering he's put himself out there now.

[Fletcher]

One more thing: Nobody has said any other reasons for why nobody died, and not killing is always risky business for the mafia. It's a WIFOM that I am not even going to try to wade into, and I don't think it happened; the odds of a cop are too high.

I agree.

Can't imagine the 4th scenario in the last post is true with the very low amount of claimed and dead protown power roles. However there could still be some out there.

[Thok]

Official Vote Count

Sonicpulsar (2): (Fletcher, Adam the Amazing)
Adam the Amazing (0):
The Central Scrutinizer (0):
inHimshallibe (0):
Fletcher (0):
YogurtBandit (0):

Not Voting (4): (YogurtBandit, inHimshallibe, The Central Scrutinizer, Sonicpulsar)

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I want to hammer, someone vote sonicpulsar.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Yogurt, the fact that you roleblocked Sonic and aren't voting him is incredibly fucking suspect to me.

[inHimshallibe]

Alley-oop!

vote: sonicpulsar

I really don't think we're up against 4 scum on the same team.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Kay, if sonic isn't scum we kill yb. Here's to hoping there aren't some fucked up roles to screw us up.

QED

vote:sonicpulsar