Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Erg0]

I don't like that unvote.

[Streeflo]

Would you rather lynch someone who just replaced in after they spent the time to reread the game? It doesn't mean I'm not suspicious of him, I'm just unvoting for now.

[Erg0]

He's in no imminent danger of being lynched and I'd rather maintain the pressure than reduce it.

[Streeflo]

He's in no imminent danger of being lynched

and I'd rather maintain the pressure than reduce it.

I don't feel the same way about this bolded part, but

FoS: Shanba

[Jimmy R]

He's in no imminent danger of being lynched and I'd rather maintain the pressure than reduce it.

Yeah, the time for a quicklynch has passed, it's not going to happen soon I don't think.

We might as well have a claim out of Shanba at this stage, although I'm pretty sure there's no roles left.

He's not

really

got that much to defend against, it's mostly absenteeism which has brought on all the pressure so I'd like to hear who his main suspects are after reading, might throw some fresh insight into the mix.

[Shanba]

OK. Erotomachia I'm pretty sure is townie. His obstinacy that I am town makes no sense in a lylo situation when he could win simply by voting me off. I just don't see it as a valid scum move.

Erg0 and Streeflo I could go either way on. I'm almost certain at least one of them is scum, or I would be dead now and town would have lost, but I'm having a hard time workng out which one it is, as both have given me a townie vibe at some stage in the game. If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not. If Soupfly is scum, I could see Erg0 as his scumbuddy:

Agreed. The soupfly thing has more or less petered out, based (I believe) n the fact that his behaviour has improved. Oman, on the other hand...

Vote: Oman

Zakk's vote was little oddly timed, too -

FoS: Zakk

This post rings oddly to me, and I could see it as early game distancing. This little gem also popped out at me as I was reading his posts:

ThaiBoxerShorts: mild suspicion. He's posting enough to appear active but doing everything possible to blend in and not rock the boat. Just a gut feeling ATM and certainly not grounds for a lynching but will keep an eye on him.

scum often like to express mild suspicion of each other while voting someone else. It gives them something to point back to later. Especially given he later drops that suspicion here:

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I'm leaning towards a Gator vote at the moment.

Still not much of a feel on Streetflo, Haut Boy or Jimmy R. Thai is off of my suspicion list as he's really not done anything scummy yet.

Finally, this post reinforces that vibe, given that TBS was about to be lynched. It reads very much as an attempt to carefully protect TBS.

At this point my suspicion is on:

Thaiboxershorts and Streetflo

My analysis on 3 votes for TBS

Hammer is 5 votes. Thaiboxershorts had 3 votes on him but mafia did not do a quick hammer. I believe Jimmy to be town so that would mean that there are two scenarios:

1) If Thaiboxershorts is town then Streetflo and ErgO are both scum. If either Streetflo or ErgO were also town then coupled with Jimmy's town vote that would be enough for a quick hammer, which hasn't happened (assuming that people have been visiting site which I assume that Mafia are doing since they probably controlled length of night phase)

2) If Thaiboxershorts is Scum then there's not much we can read on anybody.

Based on this, lynching TBS (if he's scum) will not really give us any further info. Lynching Streetflo or ErgO would establish a link with the other.

So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?

He only actually hammers TBS when it's a lost cause.

Now, as far as defence goes, there's not a whole lot I can say. However, I will say I feel the case on me is overblown. Lurking =/= a scumtell. Being unable to post can happen to both town and scum. Posting contentless posts is a different matter, but in the posts Haut Boy made there was plenty of content.

Erg0/Soupfly is the most likely scumpair in my opinion, followed by Soupfly/Streeflo. I think a Streeflo/Erg0 scumpair is fairly unlikely, tbh, as I don't see them both jumping on the same townie. Eroto, as I said earlier, I think is highly unlikely to be scum.

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

[soupfly]

OK. Erotomachia I'm pretty sure is townie. His obstinacy that I am town makes no sense in a lylo situation when he could win simply by voting me off. I just don't see it as a valid scum move.

I'm a little confused here since I've very outspoken about hautboy (you) not being scum:

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

I think haut boy is townie because of what I'd previously written. I know its metagaming but at this stage its a valid argument IMHO. Aside from lurking, which at this point seems more like indifference, I don't think there's much pointing to his guilt.

Haut Boy is an easy lynch cause nobody's going to stand up for him since he's away. Safe prey for scum wanting to get an easy lynch without wanting to mess with the active players that would actually fight back.

Jimmy, I think you're probably going to be the decision maker on this since you're the the most credible of all of us.

I'm out til sunday, see you then.

because i really don't think haut boy is scum and because we agreed to hold off on getting to two votes, i find L-2 very odd at this point. i think that jimmy should have more input (since he's the most reliable source of analysis) before we get close to a vote.

my mood for d3 is far different than d2. i'm in no rush. two correct lynches is not so hard considering that we can no lynch on D4 to eliminate an unknown. this is the critical lynch and if we get this right then i'm confident for the final showdown.

why would you think that erotomachia is town because he thinks you're town in a lylo situation, yet not apply the same logic to me when i've been much more direct about stating and arguing that you aren't scum. this is mildly suspicious.

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I'm leaning towards a Gator vote at the moment.

Still not much of a feel on Streetflo, Haut Boy or Jimmy R. Thai is off of my suspicion list as he's really not done anything scummy yet.

Finally, this post reinforces that vibe, given that TBS was about to be lynched. It reads very much as an attempt to carefully protect TBS.

TBS was not about to be lynched when I wrote this. This was written on D1 when Jenter was heading towards a lynch based on a play by play written by Niv which was really poor. Unfortunately both wound up being town so its unfortunate that Niv was so insistent on Jenter's guilt.

Regarding TBS, I've already admitted that I didn't really find him all that scummy. My vote for him on day 2 was based on the fact that confirmed townies (the two masons) had voted for him and there was no quick lynch after over 2 days when scum had enough votes left to finish the game there. To me the deciding point was based on the math involved, not my finding TBS overtly guilty. Also, I've never pointed to my vote of TBS as a sign of being town. At that point he was clearly scum through the logic of a situation imposed by Jimmy/Gator. Don't think you can read into that.

In light of the two votes against hautboy(shanba) by Streetflo then Ergo my suspicion is moving away from Erotomachia and towards the two of them because:
1) shanba was not a consensus candidate for lynching (me and eroto are not onboard)
2) i thought we had decided to hold off on quick lynches
3) if they were both town (and shanba is also town which is what i believe) then there would have already been a quick lynch and game over.

Jimmy, PLEASE give us some feedback! You're the only trustworthy analyst at the moment.

[Shanba]

Hrm. I missed that. That's what I get for reading late at night, I suppose. But yes, that does make you drop down my scumlist somewhat. Which as my vote for Erg0 was based on a connection to you, drives Streeflo back up to the top of my scumlist.

As for the quote, you misread my post. That line of mine was referring to the quote below it.

[Shanba]

EBWOP:
Actually, this gives me womewhat of a dilemna, as it makes it fairly likely one of the scum is playing less than optimally.

Unvote

for now. I'll have to go back and see the likelihood of Erotomachia pairings.

Erotomachia/Soupfly is now an impossible combination, as they would have voted me for a win already. If one turns up scum, the other cannot be.

[Erg0]

I'm struggling to see how your post above led you to the conclusion that you should vote for me...

[Streeflo]

If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not.

...<snip>...

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

You say I'm scummier than Erg0, claim he played an overall solid game, and then say that SoupFly might not be town.
YET your vote is on Erg0?

I also don't like the way you assume Erotomachia is town just because he does not think you're scum right now. Opposite OMGUS?

So shanba, after soupfly told you that he also does not think you're scum (a point which you seemed to have missed), what is your current list of suspicions? I can't tell from the last post.

[Shanba]

I'm struggling to see how your post above led you to the conclusion that you should vote for me...

Actually, it was a fairly tough decision. Soupfly was my top suspect, however I know that either you or Streeflo had to be scum. Therefore my vote was always going to be on one of you. Soupfly/Erg0 seemed more likely than Streeflo/Soupfly or Streeflo/Erg0 so I ended up voting for you. Note when Soupfly brought up evidence showing that I was wrong in my assumption that scum were playing optimally based on the game situation, I unvoted you.

[Shanba]

If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not.

...<snip>...

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

You say I'm scummier than Erg0, claim he played an overall solid game, and then say that SoupFly might not be town.
YET your vote is on Erg0?

Explained already.

I also don't like the way you assume Erotomachia is town just because he does not think you're scum right now. Opposite OMGUS?

Defending me would be sub-optimal scum play from Eroto right now when I would be a very easy mislynch indeed. Same applies to Soupfly. So would having both scum jumping on one after another. Which means that one or both of the scum is playing sub-optimally, so I can no longer clear Erotomachia in my mind.

So shanba, after soupfly told you that he also does not think you're scum (a point which you seemed to have missed), what is your current list of suspicions? I can't tell from the last post.

Yes I missed it. Honestly, by the end of my readthrough I had been reduced to skimming. It had been approaching midnight and I was tired, and not really paying close attention. Honestly, what good would it do me to lie about somthing like that?

I never got round to looking at Eroto's play after clearing him. That's my next task.

[Shanba]

If I was forced to pick, I would choose Streeflo, for although I really liked his reaction to the mason claims and found it quite genuine Erg0 has played overall a much more solid game.

Jimmy R is almost certainly town. Nuff said.

Geh. Soupfly might not.

...<snip>...

Vote: Ergo, FoS: Soupfly, Streeflo

.

You say I'm scummier than Erg0, claim he played an overall solid game, and then say that SoupFly might not be town.
YET your vote is on Erg0?

Explained already.

I also don't like the way you assume Erotomachia is town just because he does not think you're scum right now. Opposite OMGUS?

Defending me would be sub-optimal scum play from Eroto right now when I would be a very easy mislynch indeed. Same applies to Soupfly. So would having both scum jumping on one after another. Which means that one or both of the scum is playing sub-optimally, so I can no longer clear Erotomachia in my mind.

So shanba, after soupfly told you that he also does not think you're scum (a point which you seemed to have missed), what is your current list of suspicions? I can't tell from the last post.

Yes I missed it. Honestly, by the end of my readthrough I had been reduced to skimming. It had been approaching midnight and I was tired, and not really paying close attention. Honestly, what good would it do me to lie about somthing like that?

I never got round to looking at Eroto's play after clearing him. That's my next task.

[Shanba]

Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:

I think we lost.

This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.

Also, looking further on, his suspicions align with mine to a remarkable degree. I don't think an Eroto/Erg0 partnership makes sense, Eroto/Streeflo is marginal, Erot/Shanba is not something I nee to worry about and Eroto/soupfly is impossible.

So that leaves me back where I started.

Vote: erg0

[soupfly]

Because I thought the rush to lynch Shanba was very scummy, I think that the scum pair is erg0 and streetflo. The alternative to this theory would be eroto/shanba as a scum pair which seems much more unlikely.

But i'm in no rush to vote yet.

[Erg0]

Why does eroto/Shanba seem less likely? I actually have had this as my

most

likely scumpair since the start of the day.

I'll do a reply to Shanba second vote when I get a few minutes spare.

[Erg0]

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

There seems to be a common misconception that I voted for Shanba/Haut Boy without reason, and/or that I wanted to speedlynch him. On the contrary, I was reasonably certain that he was scum, and have become more certain of that as a result of the voting patterns since then. Initially I wanted to apply some pressure and gauge reactions, and as a result of those reactions I've decided to keep my vote where it is. If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

Shanba: if you're planning on trying to get me lynched you may want to try making a case against me other than "he has to be scum because I'm not".

Confirm Vote: Shanba

[soupfly]

If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

I read those posts and will share my thoughts once Eroto and Shanba respond.

[Shanba]

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.

There seems to be a common misconception that I voted for Shanba/Haut Boy without reason, and/or that I wanted to speedlynch him. On the contrary, I was reasonably certain that he was scum, and have become more certain of that as a result of the voting patterns since then. Initially I wanted to apply some pressure and gauge reactions, and as a result of those reactions I've decided to keep my vote where it is. If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

Shanba: if you're planning on trying to get me lynched you may want to try making a case against me other than "he has to be scum because I'm not".

Confirm Vote: Shanba

Actually, I haven't got round to really laying down any cases yet, so far all I have said is defence and my view of the game. Mostly because I am reasonably certain that if you get me lynched today I will lose.

Adressing your points raised in earlier posts in a bit.

[Shanba]

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

Ok. This is bizarre, frankly. You raised one point against me in TBS' posts:

I really don't like Langley and Zakk's long absences followed by short, substance-lacking posts and (at least as far as I can tell) random votes.

My current vote stays on Langley, because he has the extra strike of being active in other threads while neglecting this one. A bit metagamey, perhaps, but it's suspicious.

And in the meantime, IGMEOY Zakk.

and this (partially quoted, for length reasons) post:

I remain suspicious of Langley and Zakk, not because of their inactivity, but because of what little they have posted. Substanceless posts and apparently-random votes with no explanation and no follow up. Seems pretty scummy.

Now, your argument is that he is softer on my predecessors lurking than on Langley's. Well, yes, I can see that, however he brings up a reason for why he suspects Langley's lurking more than mine. I can see why you might see that as a connection, but for it instantly to catapult me to your top suspect is frankly ridiculous, as the only real difference between his stance on me and Langley is that Langley was posting iin other games whereas zakk wasn't. What makes this out of the ordinary enough for you to take it as such a major scumtell against me?

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

So the second point in your case against me amounts to Haut Boy being wrong about his suspicions. I don't get how you cleared Soupfly (seriously, read his interactions with TBS end of day1/day2), but that's beside the point. Townies suspect townies. If a townie is playing legitimately scummy, and they turn up town, was it an anti-town move to suspect them? If you wish to pin this against me, put the effort in to at least say what you believe was scummy about Haut Boy's suspicions.

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

This isn't really a point against me, and I don't get what I'm supposed to respond to here.


The other post you mentioned is just a re-iteration of the same things.

So your case boils down to an interpretation of one of TBS' suspicions and a general statement of "this is scummy". It's ridiculous, and the fact that you are voting me for it makes me more confident that my choice to vote you is the correct one.

[Erotomachia]

If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

Your case against me is that I was never mentioned by TBS and that I've defended Haut Boy/Shanba. I can’t help the fact that TBS never mentioned me. However, it’s not true that my interactions with TBS were completely non-existent. As I’ve mentioned before, I was critical of his Day 1 plan and I believe I was actually the first to FOS him for it.

It's true that I was a strong defender of Haut Boy before Shanba replaced him. I felt that the votes for Haut Boy reeked of opportunistic scum targeting an inactive player. I wasn’t defending him because I knew his alignment. But from my perspective as town, the fact that everyone was jumping on Haut Boy made me very uncomfortable. And since I didn't believe that scum would attack their own partner at Lylo, this made me think that Shanba was more likely to be town.

I agree with Shanba that an Erg0/Streeflo scumpair is pretty unlikely. Erg0/Shanba also wouldn't make much sense. This means that if Erg0 is scum, his partner is probably soupfly. But I could see soupfly being scum with nearly everyone, which is why he's at the top of my list right now.

[Erg0]

I'll take a page out of soupfly's book and wait for his promised response before I address these points.

[Streeflo]

I can definitely see connections between shanba and Erotomachia, and they would be my most likely scumpair for the day.

For the record, I think saying "I think we lost" after the TBS lynch was a null tell. It has no significance because it can be WIFOMed so easily.

I like shanba's defense of himself against Erg0, but I still

don't

like the Erotomachia is town case.

Shanba, you admit your case against Erg0 is nonexistent, but once again, you're still voting for him. I don't understand your votes at all.

[Streeflo]

EBWOP: I think Erg0 is town mostly because of his very solid game so far in comparison to soupfly, Hautboy, and Erotomachia. He has been actively scum hunting and generally being protown.