Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Kinetic]

Didn't notice the thing on the front page.

As for putting me, CKD, and HQ in the same group, that is completely ridiculous. I was the one who found them BOTH scummy to begin with and attacked HQ because I found him to be the scummiest of the two. I am surprised CKD died to the SK, because honestly I thought he WAS the SK... However at this point I find Mirth and Raffles to be the scummiest two players remaining.

I would like to do some re-reading of the last few pages to find more information, and I am QUITE suspect of Mirth for having such a quick response to the day. We're not at LYLO and I take a lot of credit for that, so hold your horses up.

[heatherlou]

I am so happy we lynched a mafia member! But unfortunately we lost another townie. I kind of thought the SK would continue to lynch lurkers, but they took CKD up on the offer....I need to re-read as well. I've got my eye on kinetic for putting such a strong case on CKD, however kinetic you're right you were pushing for hazzel as well so you're not huge on my list. This is a hard hunt to me. Be back with more thoughts.

[Mirth]

and I am QUITE suspect of Mirth for having such a quick response to the day.

You mean not quite as quick as yours, since you answered before me, after all?

I've been suspicious of you since I did my reread, but I freedly admit that I was wrong about CKD. I do think you're the most suspicious person here.

[Kinetic]

I meant so quick with your vote, the fact that you are that sure of me is scummy, especially since...

It doesn't make sense for me to be mafia, I lead the attack on HQ, who happened to BE mafia. There are two more out there, care to tell me who you think my other partner is if I am mafia?

It doesn't make sense for me to have been SK and killed CKD. Honestly, I would have lead and advocated a LYNCH against him... I openly admit I thought he WAS mafia. The fact that the SK DID kill him actually helps me out, since now I don't have to lead said lynch, and can focus on looking at other people. I can be sure that this week would have been filled with me and CKD arguing until one of us died... Why the SK killed his is WAY beyond me...

I cannot imagine a scenario at this time where this helps him... unless he wants the town to lynch me... But if he does that then where is he left??? No, he would have been better off in my opinion killing someone other than me or CKD, having the two of us fight until one of us was lynched, or caused a standstill so he could kill relentlessly again. And then once ONE of us was lynched, the other would be since either of us coming up town would have doomed the other...

Doesn't make sense...

[Raffles]

The fact that Kinetic was on the HQ wagon yesterday (when I mentioned the vote count) and the way he following MGM's ass bothered me the most yesterday. I'm happy to go with kinetic SK lynch.

Vote: Kinetic

[Mirth]

Kinetic, I don't think you're mafia anymore. I think you're the SK. I'm also not entirely sure I understand your reason for why it doesn't make sense for the SK to kill CKD.

[Kinetic]

Whoa, whoa...Amazing the two people I find the most scummy are trying to bandwagon me. Gasp.

And I didn't follow MGM... I said in my posts before that I would have rather lynch CKD. Simple as that. When MGM tried to get that lynch going, I tried to help. When that lynch failed, I returned to HQ just like I said I would. I thought they were both scum, and I am truthfully surprised that CKD turned up as not being scum.

[Mirth]

But that doesn't answer my question. Why doesn't it make sense for the SK to kill CKD.

Also, I like how whenever someone suspects you, you deflect suspicion right back at them.

[Kinetic]

However at this point I find Mirth and Raffles to be the scummiest two players remaining./quote]

The fact that Kinetic was on the HQ wagon yesterday (when I mentioned the vote count) and the way he following MGM's ass bothered me the most yesterday. I'm happy to go with kinetic SK lynch.

Vote: Kinetic

Eek Gad, Precognitive deflection!

Anyway, I'm currently doing a quick re-read, let me finish that then I'll try to explain better why I wouldn't target CKD. Granted, it might have a little WIFOM (I know you're so fond of it Raffles, you have a whole lake of it ), but I'll try to explain anyway...

[Mirth]

Anyway, I'm currently doing a quick re-read, let me finish that then I'll try to explain better why I wouldn't target CKD.

The phrasing of this just makes me want to say this: "it doesn't matter who you would or would not target unless you actually are the SK" but I would like t hear your opinion anyway.

[Kinetic]

... Alright, I have a huge post on my re-read coming up that I'm building right now, but that can wait a little while (I'm on page 12 or so with that). I kinda wanna address this point that Mirth brought up.

The way I see it, if I'm going to figure out why I wouldn't target CKD as SK, the easiest way is to put my self in the SK's shoes and figure out who I WOULD target.

So I did that...and my conclusion is:

I would kill CKD with such a vengeance he would never know what hit him. ...

Which is incredibly odd, because in my mind, if I was the SK, but I was anyone but me (err, like if the SK was MGM and I was MGM), there is absolutely NO reason to target CKD, unless they truly thought he was mafia and wanted to kill him and get it over with...

Now let me try and explain myself here, because I realize I just admited that if I ws SK I would kill exactly who was killed last night, but I've got to talk through this because that sounds like madness to admit:

It is absolutely certain that CKD and myself would have been at odds this day, should he be alive. The person who was lynched of the two of us most certainly would have been a coin flip figuring what HQ came up as, mafia or town. If he came up mafia, CKD was likely to be lynched. If he came up town, I was likely to be lynched.

If I was the SK, I couldn't chance that outcome. I would have to kill CKD, so if HQ came up town and CKD came up mafia, I could be safe that way and claim that, and if HQ came up Mafia and CKD came up town, I could be safe that way.

Yet the reason I personally am so confused is that I cannot imagine the non-me SK killing CKD because it seems like to me that the SK was ensured a lynch between me and CKD...

Unless... Unless the SK calculated that either HQ or CKD was mafia, and knew the game would continue if he didn't hit a mafia. With those two as the top choices, it could even be the SK thought I might be mafia and effectively made a coin flip between killing me or CKD....

Honestly, I never fathomed the SK killing CKD, I thought either CKD was the SK or if he wasn't there was no way the SK would listen to him, but it makes perfect sense I was SK to kill CKD...

Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

Bleh, all I can say is that just wait until I finish my re-read post (within the hour), I made some interesting insights, and I think I might have a clue who the scum groups are. If you absolutely MUST lynch me, I can almost understand, but I still want to win this game, and if I have to do it posthumously, that is ok too.

Man, I know its a mistake to post this... I can smell the WIFOM goodness already >>

[Kinetic]

I'm re-reading the thread and a few things have turned up. If the people I direct these questions at could answer them I would be appreciative.

First off, a question to the mod:

Mod: It never said if the mafia just know who the others are, or if they can talk out of thread. Does the town know either way if they can talk?

But I don't know if I agree with you targeting MGM as the SK or trying to push a vote. As I said before, as this game is nightless and the mafia can't kill of their own volition, our only voting constraint is to minimize SK kills, but we don't necessarily have to lynch once a week. Just make sure that lynching takes place on specific days. Id rather be sure of something than mislynch, especially in this type of set up. If we get enough for a reasonable lynch, good. If not, we shouldn't push it.

Do you still believe this? Effectively the SK has become the traditional mafia in this game, while the other mafia are just an anti-town mason group. Effectively we have hard deadlines on "days" as the SK kills once a week if we don't lynch.

Which do you think is worse: a mislynch or no lynch in a normal mafia game with only one killing faction?

In this game, do you think that a no lynch, allowing the SK to kill, is acceptable?

What I don't like: Kinetic also voicing his suspicion of MGM. I called MGM out on the hunch thing 2 pages back. Nobody else commented. Then Hazel voted. And CKD and Kinetic seem to take this as a cue that its okay to voice their suspicions. MGM hasn't done anything particularly earth shattering (or worthy of note even) in the last page. Granted, I still think he is the most suspicious person here, of people whove actually said something. But that can obviously change.

Didn't notice this the first time around, but I figure I should point this out to you:

Think of it like this guys, we're deadlined for

Aug 19, 2007 10:52 am

, If we come to an agreement before then that is fine, but we must come to an agreement by that time or we effectively no-lynch.

Vote:MGM

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already. MGM is just a hunch, but I think I'll place a vote on him since no one has.

Its 11 alive, 6 to lynch.

I was very interested in MGM at the beginning of the game. As more things panned out, around the time I made the second post about MGM (post 106), I was still suspicious of MGM until I noticed HQ and CKD acting suspicious to me. At that point I started looking deeper into HQ/CKD, and felt HQ was by far the scummier of the two, so I voted for him (post 127).

I don't think both HQ and CKD are scum, but I have a feeling that one of the two might be. I picked HQ because he felt more scummy to me.

Originally I thought that HQ and CKD weren't on a team, and only one of the two were scum. CKD's reaction after my attack on HQ though set off alarms in my head as if he was trying to protect his scum buddy and bully me off.

Mgm is acting super scummy to me. I realize there have been lots of exchanges between HazzelQ and Mgm, but coming out of them the one thing that stands out to me is that Mgm up and changed their mind. The flip-flopping on the lynch v. no lynch is the most scummy for me. From the SK kill Mgm all you've been saying is how we need to get someone up there cause we're on a deadline. I just don't understand the sudden change in heart. I know Mirth mentioned her reasons for a no-lynch, were they that convincing to you?
But there again, I don't know what to think about the voting for someone, then killing them as the SK. I think that is so scummy that you wouldn't do it.

Another thing in my re-read that I find very odd... Heather barely has any posts and then comes and posts this... add to that a late jump on the HQ bus, could be a scum buddy trying to defend then throwing under the bus...

Oh! I remembered my point. If MGM is scum, wouldn't it be better for the SK to have killed MGM instead for the very reason of being rather suspicious, thus throwing the town in a state of a bit more confusion and possibly buying himself a better oppurtunity at winning (ie have more kills with which to make sure that he does not end up alive with enugh mafia members to majority vote a lynch that could kill him). Then again, I suppose it doesn't particularly matter to the SK whom he kills, as long as it confuses the town, because either way his only objective would be to stay hidden. (Also long as he doesnt leave himself with just 3 or 2 mafia members alive at the end of the game, he would win.)

Very odd! In my opinion the CKD kill just now is throwing me into a loop of confusion...

169. Kinetic cites faulty notes. Thought MGM voted M4yhem after D3sisted, says "but it was really Heatherlou" says it was a mistake

(This is false. MGM voted CKD.)

No, I meant heatherlou voted for M4yhem, not that MGM voted heatherlou.

Kinetic - I definately do not like a few of his comments, especially about Hazzel splitting his posts. (By the way, Kinetic, you still haven't answered about that. Please do so.) I don't like his all out arguement with CKD (this could be WIFOM on my part, I'm aware of it.) I think he is possibly Mafia, but probably not the SK, unless he's breadcrumbing stuff.

This was your opinion of me after your whole re-read. Only 5 days have passed since this. I realize I have made scummy comments, and even scummy attacks (personally, I agree my play hasn't been stellar at all), but even so you don't think I'm lonescum, but teamscum. Now your opinion has flip-flopped, and you think I'm lonescum and not teamscum. Is there any specific reason, other than since HQ came up teamscum and you don't think I'm on a team with him and still trying to find me scummy?

vote: HazzelQ

For mixing up games and generally acting really defensive at the beginning of the questioning. I don't think pointing out the mixing up makes it any less of a scummy move. It wouldn't have gotten by anyway, even if you hadn't pointed it out, especally twice.
Damn right I'm lurking, this game has been nothing but back and forth arguments and I think we just need to lynch cause we're all grasping at straws.
As for other scum, I have no concrete ideas

Awesome attack on a lurker while lurking... priceless. The turn around by Heather reeks of scum bussing.

-----------------------

My current impressions on who are the scum groups:

Mafia:
Raffles/Heatherlou

SK
Most likely: Stewie

Individual Players:

Mirth: Meh, for the most part I've been very OMGUSy with her the whol game, and most of that is my fault. You've been a little bit snarky, but my responses to such have been overly dramatic and generally wrong. I should have read your pbp when you first posted, but I saw it and pretty much skipped it the first time. I took some time this time and it seems like you had similar points/suspicions as I did, but I never really saw them in your everyday posts.

Raffles: However, you, I found extremely scummy in my re-read. I got a slimy feeling from you the first time, and your alternately lurking and bandwagoning reeked of scummyness to me.

Stewie: In my opinion, almost definitely not teamscum, but I would take bets at even odds that he could be the SK. He is highest on my list for that honor.

heatherlou: As I've pointed out above, she has presented a lurker feel, mashed with alternately defending HQ, then throwing him under the bus when his lynch seemed inevitable.

MGM: I know I've avoided him the most this game, but I'll say this now; I really don't find him

that

scummy anymore... Odd how that works... I still think he is a possible, but not as high as when I first was looking at him early game. The main reason I was thrown off with the early SKs was because I was so suspicious of MGM and then when the SKs started going like I thought they might if he was SK, along with HQ and CKD attacking him... something sent up alarms in my head. Since then I've had time to reread, and I really don't know... If I had to guess, I would guess townie. If he was scum though, I don't think he's teamscum, at best I think he could be the SK.

Xyzzy: I hate that we have this much of a wildcard right now. He's high on my mafia list, but not high on my SK list. This may be WIFOMy, but to me the SK seems to be the same person, and doesn't look like he's replaced... Still could be scum though.

That's everyone.

I've said what I wanted to say. Any questions?

[Raffles]

Not a relevant question as such, but Kinetic, a lake made of wine is truly awesome, don't you think?


I'd also like to challenge your first point on your re-read (about to lynch or not to lynch) which incidentally brings me to the another point why I would accuse you as a SK.

The thing I have against lynching quickly is this. There are five situations, with corresponding "casualty (townie) expected value" and given that we don't lynch SK. The week begins the moment SK's "week clock" resets.

No lynch: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch end-week: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch mid-week: E> 1 per week
Townie lynch end-week: E> 3/2 per week
Townie lynch mid-week: E> 2 per week

Then from this, to minimise the E value, our best strategy is to have a very plausible scum lynch at

end

of the week. Now a townie lynch mid-week is pretty much an equivalent of four weeks of discussion with scum lynch at the end. Surely we can quite confidently narrow down a scum in a month of discussion? The fact that you want a speedy lynch is a worry, because it is exactly what the SK wants.

Oh yes I have a question: How can you put Xyzzy high on mafia list when he posted absolutely nothing? On that note,

mod

can you prod/replace Xyzzy? I've had enough of 0 activity.

[Mirth]

Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

See what I don't like about this is how sure you are that you've been framed (yes, this is all going to be WIFOM, just like your entire post was). You weren't the only one who thought CKD and Hazzel were both mafia. I have freely admitted that was my opinion pre CKD's death. MGM also had a vote on CKD. It wouldn't be too far fetched to think the SK truly believed that CKD was mafia and thought he was getting rid of him.

Now the odd thing, and the thing that really bothers me about the kill is that the SK didn't wait for a confirm to Hazzel's alignment. I just noticed this.

As to your questions.
1. At this point, while I still believe a mislynch is bad, I think mathematically, with only 7 players left, a no lynch would not be helpful. We have a 3/7 chance of hitting scum with a lynch. A no lynch, while giving us a 3/6 chance the the next day, would make a town win harder. My opinion has changed based on the number of players alive and the increased odds of lynching correctly.
2. Yes, you're perfectly right. I totally missed your post voting for MGM. When I did my read through, I caught it, and commented on my mistake in that.
3. I still stand by my opinion that the SK's main motive is to hide and his kills would probably enable that.
4. My opinion on you changed based on Hazzel coming up scum. Because my original thought was it was either you and CKD or CKD and Hazzel. I was wrong on both counts and I don't think you and Hazzel are partners.
5. MGM still isn't cleared in my book. I'm not ruling out the possibility that he is the SK, but I'm pretty darn sure he isn't mafia.
6. I would like to hear what Raffles, Heather, and Stewie have to say about your comments.
7. A couple posts ago you mentioned me as high on your suspect list. Why am I seemingly no longer on it?
8. This one is actually for Raffles. Raffles, you mentioned a long while ago that lurkers are evil. How do you now apply that opinion to this game?

[Kinetic]

Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

See what I don't like about this is how sure you are that you've been framed (yes, this is all going to be WIFOM, just like your entire post was).

I'm not

sure

I've been framed >> That was more of a "Omg... This IS what I would have done..." moment. Really creeped me out to tell you the truth.

[Mgm]

Where my vote goes tomorrow depends on what Hazzel turns up as. If Hazzel is town, then I think Kinetic is most likely scum.

So HazzelQ turned up scum and you still find a reason to find him suspicious. That's scummy in my book.

FOS: Mirth

Why would Kinetic vote CKD? If he's really the SK that's suicide. No matter what his alignment turned out to be, it would've lead to Kinetic being voted.

Vote: Raffles

[Kinetic]

Stop voting what I'm going to vote before I do it! >>

[Raffles]

MGM: Interesting. You've listed why you find Mirth suspicious, which I disagree with. But more on that later. You didn't list any reason for me yet you voted. Which is either was accidental or on purpose. I can rule out accidental because you've FoSed Mirth previously in that post. But if you voted on purpose then there must be a reason. Previous records show that you had voted for me for trying to get Stewie to contribute properly. But I have voted on Kinetic who is clearly active, so that is not the reason. You haven't been that strongly after my blood on Day 1, so that can't be the main reason either. You are trying to make me guess the reason, so you are gauging for my reaction. But I don't think you are that simple. You must have some other reason too. Mainly you dislike what I posted about Kinetic. So it's either former or latter and former. [/Dr. House]

AmIright? AmIright?

Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.

[Kinetic]

Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.

Actually, I addressed this slightly. Mirth just finds me generally scummy. Originally she didn't think I could be SK because the reason she originally found me scummy was because of my interactions with HQ and CKD... But again, those reasons turned out wrong:

3. I still stand by my opinion that the SK's main motive is to hide and his kills would probably enable that.

4. My opinion on you changed based on Hazzel coming up scum. Because my original thought was it was either you and CKD or CKD and Hazzel. I was wrong on both counts and I don't think you and Hazzel are partners.

This doesn't really make sense to me though. On the one hand you say you think the SK is trying to hide in plain sight (more fitting for players such as Stewie, or even Raffles), but then on the other you think I can't be teamscum anymore, but are very likely (enough to vote for me) the SK.

I submit to you: Am I trying to hide anything at all? I'm putting myself out there as much as possible, explaining what I can, the best I can. I personally helped lead the HQ lynch, and yes I'm going to keep noting that feather, because honestly if I would have just helped the town stagnate at this point, we might still be in the same place we were two weeks ago.

Personally I think that she needs to do at least a passing reread now. We have more information, much more, and we can start putting some things into context.

Also, my main "Turn around" point with you Mirth is that I'm looking at things from a different angle. This is day 2 now, which is a totally different game. In my opinion the three people that seem to be trying the most are You, MGM, and myself. This doesn't clear them completely, but it does go a long way in my book. All three provided a lot of information for Day 2, while the people I have on my scum list (heather, raff, stewie, and to a lesser extent xyz) are all players who glided and coasted through the day.

Truth be told, I do find Raffles very scummy, but right now, heatherlou is at the top of my list. Granted, its not my SK list... but it is also very possible she could be the SK. I find it much less likely that Raff can be the SK, I'm almost sure he's just normal team scum, but I'd like to see what heather has to say most. Personally, I think she's only teamscum as well, but she is scummier in my book, and the possibility of being SK exists as well.

Vote: Heatherlou

[Kinetic]

No lynch: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch end-week: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch mid-week: E> 1 per week
Townie lynch end-week: E> 3/2 per week
Townie lynch mid-week: E> 2 per week

I'm not looking at it in the way you are looking at it at all. This is what I see:

When we lynch, almost no matter who we lynch, we gain information. Lots of it. Lynching scum is better, much better, but I was advocating the HQ lynch since week 1. Since then, instead of lynching, we've stagnated. For each no lynch, especially now, we give the SK time to eliminate one more person.

We're almost at LyLo now. Not quite, mainly because of the way the set up is, but we're teetering on the edge.

Raffles: Let me ask you this- Which is worse right now? A townie lynch, or no lynch? 7 alive. 2 mafia, 1 SK, 4 townies.

[Mgm]

Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.

I was trying to point out how that was "damned if you do, damned if you don't"-reasoning. If HazzelQ was town, he'd consider Kinetic scum. HazzelQ turns up scum? No problem, he can still produce a reason to vote him. I'm getting the feeling, he just wants Kinetic dead no matter what else happens.

[Mgm]

AmIright? AmIright?

No, it has nothing to do with Kinetic. Have another guess.

[Mirth]

Where my vote goes tomorrow depends on what Hazzel turns up as. If Hazzel is town, then I think Kinetic is most likely scum.

So HazzelQ turned up scum and you still find a reason to find him suspicious. That's scummy in my book.

Because I said this under the impression that CKD would have also turned up mafia. That assumption turned out to be wrong. I'm just not convinced of Kinetic's innocence, and hence am suspicious of him as the SK. Yet you seem to be so sure he isn't, why is this exactly?

Kinetic, as to hiding, well, I don't find my two statements mutually exclusive, as it really all depends on two-way WIFOM. (Why would you kill CKD, that doesn't help you so you're probably not the SK, but then again thats juat wast you may want us to think and killed him precisely because of this, lather, rinse, repeat.)

But you are right about one thing. I do need to do another reread. Whether I decide to keeo my vote on you depends on that. (I'm going to be gone for most of today though, so I'll do this in the late evening or tomorrow morning. This is my last post at least until them)

Raffles, MGM, could you please answer my questions?

Also,

Mod, could you please prod Xyzzy

[Raffles]

Kinetic: Amount of information we gain from a lynch is very circumstantial, let alone factual conclusions. I agree stagnation is bad, but then that really isn't an exuse to rush a lynch.

To answer your question:

I would prefer it if the SK is lynched before he makes the next kill obviously.
If that is not possible
a: he kills town--> it is imperative that we lynch SK on that week, because the risk of going past lylo is too big
b: he kills scum --> we can breath a sigh of relief, and get on with searching scum with our given at least two extra weeks. If no further mafia is killed, then we need to lynch SK on that third week.

Shit that wasn't answering your question. But it would help me with it.

Anyway, to

actually

answer your question...

If a town is lynched (assuming he is lynched at end of the week) then we'll be left with situation lylo. Assuming Sk picks randomly we can have
1: townie dead. 2mafia 1SK 2town. An ugly situation
2: Scum dead. 1mafia 1SK 3town. A bit better than a: (see above)

If no lynch occured then it would go to a: and b:.

I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?

[Raffles]

Mirth: Hmm I was going to answer your question on 392, but then I got lazy and forgot. Sorry.

What do you mean, "how do I now apply that to this game"? If I had to guess what it means (ie. go for the ovbious) then I would apply it as I would, normally. Maybe even more so than other games as we are timed. People who posted bugger all are bastards that need to be replaced by active players(i.e. Xyzzy, Stewie), because in a game that is timed like this, lurking is into the region of dishonour and borderline cheating than "tactics".

MGM: Hints? Or preferably answers? I'll bribe you with a choc-chip cookie, complete with a tall glass of milk. And telling me answers has a wonderful benefit of cutting timewasting.