Blitz 3: Dead of Winter Mafia - Game Over

[pisskop]

for oje it rhymes. twice


For two Its my internal model at work.

we dont have enough info this game. So ai want to lynch noncontributers first in the absxence of datum.

On that note I want gamer too. Im internal monologuing that rn

[Expedience]

Either of Davsto / davesaz are my top suspects atm I think.

Davesaz for reasons I said earlier and gut as well, in recent posts he is asking really pointed almost loaded questions and it reminds me of what I saw about his scum meta.

Davsto I have played with a game before and he did not seem this disengaged. His posts feel a little off and he doesn't seem cheery enough.

[A Royal Saint]

@Pisskop there isn't "datum" until end of day. There are reads and reasons why for a belief. There is a reason why your gut thinks these things.

Day one is about gut reads and sharing thoughts so that way later on we have enough thread to read to piece it together.
Yes we don't have the solution yet. But we need to spitball and think. It isn't about being right so much as listening and understanding and getting a lay of the land. By posting one's thoughts the map builds.

I know I am a horrible day one player but this is the idea.

@Expedience -- Thabk you. I have only been in one game with davesaz as an SK and that was a long time ago. Can you provide a sample? If you already did this sorry just not that much time in blitz to research.

It is hard for me to get a read on the other Dave and just meh isn't really enough to switch focus off someone not playing. We need to have thoughts aloud to reach consensus.

[Expedience]

It's a playstyle thing. Some people are confrontational, others use a more oblique approach. The trick is reading how people respond.
Lots of game links available on my wiki page, feel free to compare.

Well, I read some of your ISO in this one in which you were town. And surprisingly meta actually seems to be vaguely useful for once and I see your point. Like, I probably would've called you scum for the same reasons if I was in that game but you flipped town.

Looking at you as scum here, you actually seem more aggressive which is the opposite of what I would expect.

I am still not convinced that this makes you town, becuase meta can be changed, and you kind of ignored the other aspect of my accusation: the shallow pseudo-scumhunting. I'm not sure how to pursue this further, but I am not scumreading you much any more. I will retract my vote for now.

UNVOTE: davesaz

At the moment I am seeing Ranger, The Silver Bard and pisskop as town.

Maybe we should just lynch gameplay or Davsto or something, most of the active people actually seem pretty town to me. Davsto is not doing much and he just voted for someone who I am pretty certain is town.

There are links to a town game and a scum game in this post, I'm on mobile so can't isolate them.

[Expedience]

VOTE: davesaz

This feels right. I always keep being overconfident and then backing down later but I just want to stick with this.

[A Royal Saint]

Since Scorpious is/was actually online and trying I am going to operate as if they are town for now same with Bard and I was an idiot.

Mainly I want to poke the crap out of Game, pisskop for IIOA they should know better having played enough, and davesaz because you may have a point there.

[Klingoncelt]

Davsto, is changing a vote off a stronger scumread and onto a lesser scumread really that bad considering the setup and time constraints? It's sometimes necessary to compromise.

Not on the first day of a three day limit.

If you think Ranger is scum, do you think her breaking the rules and saying her secondary wincon on the first page was fake?

Well I certainly think reading him as town for it is a bad idea. I find that town would probably want to keep it secret even if they didn't know that you weren't allowed to say it to avoid policy lynches on them for having some terrible one, whereas scum would totally try to fake one for towncred.

I'm questioning you because that alone makes me ~90% sure Ranger is town. I think that if scum!Ranger was trying to fake a post restriction, they would've understood that scum don't have secondary wincons, and deduced such a rule would probably exist to prevent a potentially gamebreaking massclaim d1. Or at least, they would've worried that they could be outed by the fact that they didn't have a secondary wincon to claim easily, and possibly asked / tried to investigate how to stop this. Also I think that Ranger deliberately breaking the rules to appear town is a very unlikely scenario.

What do you think of Klingon's implied post restriction?

VOTE: Klingoncelt

Scum know

secret

wincons.

So why is it supposedly this obvious if it's "secret"?

I think Klingon just chose a fake one that wasn't on the list at the start of the game, and one that would "confirm" her as town to everyone else.

Also she is pushing a lurker and apparently has no other scumreads.

Worst case scenario: we mislynch what is effectively a vote.

Think about it guys.

Rule against saying post restrictions publicly to prevent the game from being broken, suddenly here is Klingon with extremely obvious post restriction. If we assumed it was not faked, then it would be partially gamebreaking in that it would all but confirm Klingon as town. Or, at least, that's why we can't just massclaim secondary wincons d1. The entire point behind them is that they are meant to be subtle. Essentially, this would not be added to the game because the very act of following the post restriction constitutes heavily hinting at it, which is against the rules.

If you look up the game itself that this game is based on, it's meant to be like that too, with the secondary wincons not immediately obvious but subtly influencing how players act.

Can I ask who said that the post restriction is Kling's secret wincon? That seems like a logical leap.

I guess it is a logical leap, but what else could it realistically be?

VOTE: Klingoncelt

Scum know

secret

wincons.

So why is it supposedly this obvious if it's "secret"?

I think Klingon just chose a fake one that wasn't on the list at the start of the game, and one that would "confirm" her as town to everyone else.

Also she is pushing a lurker and apparently has no other scumreads.

Worst case scenario: we mislynch what is effectively a vote.

I don't think a lynch on Klingoncelt is the way to go today.

As I have mentioned previously I think scum could easily make up this kind of postrestriction, so it isn't proof that she is town.

But it is basicly a policylynch, and a policylynch that we won't gain much information from if she is town. It is easy for scum to jump on this wagon, as she cannot defend herself.

If we don't agree on a lynch on either Saint or Ranger though, I will consolidate on Klingoncelt, as she will be an uncertainty throughout the game.

It's not really a policy lynch from my perspective, I think Klingon is scum faking a post restriction. If you want to view it as a policy lynch because there is a lower risk associated with it you're welcome to do that, but there is evidence to suggest that Klingon is scum.

Rule against saying post restrictions publicly

Show me the rule. It refers to secondary wincons, not post restrictions.

In fact, under the rules, a post restriction

can't

be a wincon because the act of following the restriction would break the rules, but not following it would also break the rules.(For not playing to your wincon)
It's a paradox that is only broken by makeing a PR a role, not a secondary wincon.

Yeah, you have a point to some extent, but I don't think that Klingon would have both a post restriction and then another secondary wincon because that would just be redundant. How you're saying a post restriction can't be a secondary wincon is precisely why I think that it's being faked.

davesaz, would you consider Klingon a policy lynch?

But what I am saying is that Klingon is the better policy lynch because there is a stronger chance that she is scum.

Ok,lets think about this..

who honestly believes Celt is faking?

why would a role be so "obvious" scum?

I find that method of thinking in this instance is just lazy..

I think Celt is faking. I don't think that she genuinely has that post restriction, because of how I think the setup was designed. What do you mean by lazy, and what makes lazy thinking bad in this instance?

I think this discussion of KlingonCelt is dumb for a few reasons:

1) It pretty much says to mods to never put in a post restriction because that person will be policy lynched. This game is meant for fun. If the restriction is true then you are judging Klingon Celt not for play but for a post restriction.

2) if Klingon Celt is faking and being scum then that would pretty much ruin me playing with them because I value letting people have fun over winning. Since in the games I have played with Klingon Celt they have common respect for the game I doubt this is it. Call it gut if you want but I doubt they are faking.

3) Setup spec which is what is going on stops scum hunting. For the love of God hunt scum. We have less than 24 hours and this is filler bullshit.

So therefore out of respect of letting a player play the fucking game I will not join on this.

I hear what you are saying here. I think we have different priorities and I am taking a more cynical stance. While I don't trust the post restriction and this is to me the safest lynch, I'll unvote for now because I think we should be able to find scum without lynching Klingon and fulfill both our priorities.

UNVOTE: Klingoncelt

Either of Davsto / davesaz are my top suspects atm I think.

Davesaz for reasons I said earlier and gut as well, in recent posts he is asking really pointed almost loaded questions and it reminds me of what I saw about his scum meta.

Davsto I have played with a game before and he did not seem this disengaged. His posts feel a little off and he doesn't seem cheery enough.

VOTE: davesaz

This feels right. I always keep being overconfident and then backing down later but I just want to stick with this.

[Klingoncelt]

VOTE: Expedience

[A Royal Saint]

Good point Klingon.

Expedience please explain why in the lower 205 it is not a policy lynch and in 225 it is a polcy lynch for the same reasons?

Help me understand why you did that?

[Titus]

Official Vote Count

davesaz

(2): gameplay506, Expedience

Ranger

(2): Davsto, Makoto Nanaya

A Royal Saint

(2): The Silver Bard, Ranger

gameplay506

(2): davesaz, A Royal Saint

Klingoncelt

(1): hiplop

Makoto Nanaya

(1): The_Jester

Expedience

(1): Klingoncelt

Not Voting

(2): Scorpious, pisskop

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-07 13:52:33)

[A Royal Saint]

Be back in a few hours I need a nap.

[Expedience]

Good point Klingon.

Expedience please explain why in the lower 205 it is not a policy lynch and in 225 it is a polcy lynch for the same reasons?

Help me understand why you did that?

Well I was thinking of it from others' perspective and it was a continuation from 224 so your confusion is understandable. Like, if I could get davesaz to admit that he thought they were both policy lynches then he would have to explain how gameplay is the better policy lynch. But when I wrote 225 I did not myself consider Klingon a policy lynch but I knew others were.

[Expedience]

Welp, 11.5 hours left. All three of the other 2-vote wagons suck in my opinion so I really don't want to move my vote. But a nolynch would suck more so ehhhhhh. I might not be online much closer to the deadline because of timezones but I will try.

[Klingoncelt]

Official Vote Count

davesaz

(2): gameplay506, Expedience

Ranger

(2): Davsto, Makoto Nanaya

A Royal Saint

(2): The Silver Bard, Ranger

gameplay506

(2): davesaz, A Royal Saint

Klingoncelt

(1): hiplop

Makoto Nanaya

(1): The_Jester

Expedience

(1): Klingoncelt

Not Voting

(2): Scorpious, pisskop

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-11-07 13:52:33)

VOTE: gameplay506

[Scorpious]

No way to know if I'll be around for deadline tomorrow.

scum pool right now is Ex,Gp,and maybe saint..

VOTE: expedience

[Expedience]

No way to know if I'll be around for deadline tomorrow.

scum pool right now is Ex,Gp,and maybe saint..

VOTE: expedience

Why do you think I'm scum?

Why vote me over gameplay and ARS when there isn't a wagon on me?

[pisskop]

GP over expi.

[davesaz]

Sorry, busy day. Catching up. (that's weird sounding for just a few hours of gap, but it feels like things are flying by)

I see no reason to think Klingoncelt's play as scummy. I see her as using the available limited tools in a town motivated way. A lynch there would IMO be policy to remove the distraction and nothing more. Faking a post restriction as scum is such a huge risk I don't see her doing that.

I can see why some players would consider gameplay a policy lynch. I don't happen to agree because I can't think of a reason town would play that way on purpose on short deadlines. If it's a time availability thing, either say that up front or replace out so someone can actively play the game.

Despite having opposite opinions on quite a few things, I think Expedience is likely to be town. The thought process shows a strong push to solve the game.

[davesaz]

The only post by hiplop after my question on his KC vote was to say it's policy. Not liking that at all.

[davesaz]

Jester didn't post after my question but has a V/LA sign up.
As far as I can tell, nobody paid any attention to it other than to characterize it as pointed (and maybe leading).
Makoto alt slipped, indicating probably not a newb. Hence the point of asking whether Jester had read all of the relevant posts.
I have Jester as weak town for calling out Makoto for fluff, with a little bit of doubt based on the newb thing.

[davesaz]

Speaking of Makoto, doing one post per player is a little weird but I can't really call it scummy per se.
I'm not very impressed with the contents of those posts though. Weak scum read based on high noise to signal ratio.

Pisskop seems pretty scummy, lots of information but practically no conclusions to speak of. Based on past experiences that probably means he's town. This is very weak though, and I don't see myself being really patient if it continues.

[Expedience]

There is reason for town to play like gameplay is the same way there is reason for scum to play like this: because they don't have the time or effort to read and analyse the game. I actually have a slight townread on gameplay upon reading his ISO and thinking a bit.

The fact that he reads just a few pages and gives his thoughts makes him seem town to me, if anything. I would expect scum in gameplay's position to either lurk harder or return with a huge wall, because if he was intentionally lurking he could continue doing so or he would have the capacity to post a lot more content if he wanted. 226 shows that he at least understands that what he is doing and wants to rectify this in whatever small way that he can (because he doesn't have the resources to post significantly more but can still put in a bit more effort).

[The_Jester]

@davesaz I did, in fact, miss that alt thing. However you can still be newbscum after playing a number of games, to me it's rather an expression regarding a level of confidence in your own play.
I don't see how Expedience can be scum. If he indeed is, I admire his skill but seriously Scorpious' vote made me want to vote nim but there's no wagon on nim so no point.
I'm gonna re-read and probably join one of longer wagons for now. We gotta choose and unify the wagons cause I can't see how NL can be beneficial to anyone but scum.

[The_Jester]

Scorpious' vote seems so weird though. It's like he saw the VC and thought "damn, almost everyone's voting someone, I better do the same so I don't stand out when the DL comes."

[A Royal Saint]

Hester Dave vote. The wagons are exp Dave or me. Me is stupid because I am trying to help get a lynch.

We have less than 7 hours.