Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Shanba]

A number of people have said they don't buy my case, but I'm definitely not seeing anything more convincing. I've also yet to find a better scumfinding method than looking at dead scum's relationship with the remaining players.

I which case, I invite you to re-read soupfly's position on TBS end of day 1 and day 2. I'm not really sure why you've cleared him, if we're getting into that.

Actually, speaking of clearing players, almost everyone in the game has cleared a player. That's kinda dangerous, as pure statistics state that at least one of the cleared players must be scum. regardless, I'm amlost certain eroto is town, even if I can't seem to convince anyone else of hat fact.

Having said that, the developments after my initial vote have given me some food for thought on the other two players in my list. I'm starting to wonder whether Streeflo was actually trying to get Shanba lynched based on the expectation that one of the town would jump on the wagon once there were a couple of votes, then jumped off quickly when he realised it wasn't going to happen. I don't see any other reason to unvote at the point he did - if a quicklynch was going to occur then it would have already happened. I also found his attempt to stifle discussion of Shanba's main town tell on Eroto in 660 a bit out of place.

Meh. Tat's a possibility. I do like your last couple of posts with regards to Streeflo and am beginning to waver on whether I'm right on you or no. I know one of you must be scum, but I just can't see many Streeflo pairings that make sense like an Erg0-soupfly one does.

[Erotomachia]

Shanba, I'm confused. Why are you voting for Erg0? You say that I'm town and that Erg0-Streeflo is unlikely. This leaves Soupfly/Erg0 and Soupfly/Streeflo as possible scumpairs. So why Erg0 over Soupfly?

[Erg0]

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

[Shanba]

Shanba, I'm confused. Why are you voting for Erg0? You say that I'm town and that Erg0-Streeflo is unlikely. This leaves Soupfly/Erg0 and Soupfly/Streeflo as possible scumpairs. So why Erg0 over Soupfly?

Because I know one of Streeflo/Erg0 must be scum, or I'd be dead and we'd have lost by now.

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Eh. I was hoping you would point to specifics that made you think he was town.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

He tries to discourage people from voting TBS on day 2 but does it in such a way that it makes it look like he is suspicious of him. He only votes for TBS when it is clear, by his own logic, that TBS must be scum. It's the sort of behaviour with regards to scum that makes my skin crawl.

[Erg0]

My specifics on soupfly were in the posts that we've already discussed. TBS distanced himself from the soupfly wagon after voting him on day 1, which seemed like something that scum would do if they were caught wagonning a townie. Your point is valid, though it would just as easily be explained by a faulty scumdar on soupfly's part. Even so, I won't completely dismiss him as a possibility just yet.

To rephrase Eroto's question: if you've narrowed it down to either me or Streeflo (but not both), then by process of elimination soupfly must be the buddy of whichever of us is scum. So why aren't you voting for him?

[soupfly]

Shanba, I'm confused. Why are you voting for Erg0? You say that I'm town and that Erg0-Streeflo is unlikely. This leaves Soupfly/Erg0 and Soupfly/Streeflo as possible scumpairs. So why Erg0 over Soupfly?

Because I know one of Streeflo/Erg0 must be scum, or I'd be dead and we'd have lost by now.

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Eh. I was hoping you would point to specifics that made you think he was town.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

He tries to discourage people from voting TBS on day 2 but does it in such a way that it makes it look like he is suspicious of him. He only votes for TBS when it is clear, by his own logic, that TBS must be scum. It's the sort of behaviour with regards to scum that makes my skin crawl.

Skin crawl? If you are townie and I am scum then I would have had zero incentive to defend hautboy/yourself before you were even active. Jimmy was leaning towards a vote your way and it would not have been hard to push for a lynch. I could have even just been silent and let things play out. However, I thought you were a townie before you even joined the game and was much more vocal than Eroto on this point. Despite this, you seem convinced that Eroto is town because of the fact that he posted "I think we lost"!?! That's your definitive reasoning for clearing Eroto and now starting to cast suspicion on me? I guess that brings you down a notch on my townie list and now makes me completely reconsider the game scenarios because up until now I'd been going on the assumption that you were town.

Regarding TBS I believe I've addressed my link with him but i'll do it again. D1: I wasn't overly suspicious but did make a post that I found him slightly suspicious because he was essentially lurking in plain sight. Was only a small suspicion and didn't see the point of a lynch on D2. I only voted for him when it was clear he was scum so I don't expect any townie credit for disposing of a scum, nor any scum points unless you wanna go totally WIFOM on me.

Given what I wrote above, I'm gonna do a full reread in order to see if I can get any further insights into the game.

For the time being I'm not comfortable voting for anybody which means that my initial suspicion on Erg0 has subsided. Funny thing is that eroto is now looking the most town to me.

[Shanba]

Skin crawl? If you are townie and I am scum then I would have had zero incentive to defend hautboy/yourself before you were even active. Jimmy was leaning towards a vote your way and it would not have been hard to push for a lynch. I could have even just been silent and let things play out. However, I thought you were a townie before you even joined the game and was much more vocal than Eroto on this point. Despite this, you seem convinced that Eroto is town because of the fact that he posted "I think we lost"!?! That's your definitive reasoning for clearing Eroto and now starting to cast suspicion on me? I guess that brings you down a notch on my townie list and now makes me completely reconsider the game scenarios because up until now I'd been going on the assumption that you were town.
[/quote] See, that's just about the only thing that makes me think I'm wrong about you. If you were scum, it would be so much easier for you to just have attacked me rather than defending me as strongly as you were. But then again, maybe not. It occurred to me that it didn't matter which townie you lynched from you as scum perspective, and so defending me ins't necessarily a bad idea. I did something similar in newbie 319 as scum where I strongly defended one townie in order to get a mislynch on another. If your scumbuddy was then lynched, you wouldn't have looked so suspicious afterwards if you didn't support the mislynch of the day.

Geh. It probably wasn't a good idea to bring up something that controversial in lylo, but I truly believe that that comment is a towntell. It would take one hell of a scum to think it through far enough to make that comment, honestly. But clearly repeating this isn't convincing anyone, so I've decided to drop the whole thing for now. Just let it be known I won't be voting Eroto.

Regarding TBS I believe I've addressed my link with him but i'll do it again. D1: I wasn't overly suspicious but did make a post that I found him slightly suspicious because he was essentially lurking in plain sight. Was only a small suspicion and didn't see the point of a lynch on D2. I only voted for him when it was clear he was scum so I don't expect any townie credit for disposing of a scum, nor any scum points unless you wanna go totally WIFOM on me.

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Given what I wrote above, I'm gonna do a full reread in order to see if I can get any further insights into the game.

For the time being I'm not comfortable voting for anybody which means that my initial suspicion on Erg0 has subsided. Funny thing is that eroto is now looking the most town to me.

[soupfly]

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Jeez...nothing but WIFOM. If "weakly attacking a scumbuddy is the oldest trick in the book" then its clear I wouldn't have done it if I were scum since its too obvious...and we can go on and on like this forever.

Why are you basing all of your arguments (e.g. Eroto "I think town lost") on WIFOM? All that WIFOM arguments give you is a random chance of catching scum which isn't particularly helpful at this point.

[Erg0]

Shanba, you do realise that TBS weakly attacked your predecessor on day 1? In fact, that was the main reason that Haut Boy was on top of my suspect list based on TBS's actions. In effect, you're arguing against soupfly using the same case that I used on you - a case that you've already said you didn't really buy.

[Shanba]

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Jeez...nothing but WIFOM. If "weakly attacking a scumbuddy is the oldest trick in the book" then its clear I wouldn't have done it if I were scum since its too obvious...and we can go on and on like this forever.

This would work, if it weren't wrong. Scumtells are given off subconscoiusly.

Why are you basing all of your arguments (e.g. Eroto "I think town lost") on WIFOM? All that WIFOM arguments give you is a random chance of catching scum which isn't particularly helpful at this point.

I don't believe my towntell on Eroto is WIFOM, in the same way that any scumtell is not Wifom

[Erg0]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

[soupfly]

Let's agree to disagree about what is and isn't WIFOM cause we can go back and forth for pages.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't consider my action as a sign of my guilt, however you are depending too much on singular instances which honestly can be interpreted either way (eroto's statement is another example). I think you need to consider the entire body of evidence and the person's play/actions throughout the entire game rather than just a "scum tell" or a "town tell".

ATM, you're insisting pretty heavily on some singular points which are quite interpretable IMO.

Please do answer Erg0's question.

[Shanba]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

Erg0, the two situations would be the same if it were my only reason for voting soupfly.

[soupfly]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

Erg0, the two situations would be the same if it were my only reason for voting soupfly.

have you decided to place your vote on me?

[Shanba]

No, because I cannot be certain you are scum, whereas I know one of Erg0 or Streeflo must be scum.

[soupfly]

this is starting to drag on a little bit.

who would you guys vote for right now?

me, i'm leaning towards streetflo because the second vote against shanba was very scummy.

[Erg0]

I'm happy with my vote where it is. Shanba's defence has been solid, but nothing has happened post-replacement that would make me change my mind. We've got two days' worth of material before we got TBS, I'd suggest that people have another look at that.

[Streeflo]

I find shanba's solid defense to be a good thing, but as I've said before, shanba or Erotomachia is my choice.

[Erotomachia]

Soupfly is still my top choice.

I've been re-reading and thinking about Erg0/Streeflo's votes for TBS and Shanba. Streeflo's votes are obviously more scummy. This is especially true in regards to Shanba - I don't see why a pro-town player would place a second vote on an inactive player at Lylo, opening up the possibility for a quicklynch.

Shanba's vote still doesn't make any sense to me at all. By trying to guess whether Erg0 or Streeflo are scum, you effectively have a 50% of catching scum. Since you've said that soupfly would be their only logical scum partner, then voting for him should give you a 100% of getting scum (according to your assumptions, which are that I'm town and that a Erg0+Streeflo scumpair is unlikely).

[soupfly]

i've reread this thread twice today and can't make any sense of it. every time i try to build a case against somebody i find myself in a WIFOM argument. very frustrating indeed cause it almost seems like nobody is worth of being scum. well played indeed.

the play for today is either streeflo or shanba. streeflo has play excellent but i just can't get over his second vote today. shanba has used some pretty shaky logic in his posts till now. the point that eroto just pointed out is very true indeed. with shanba's logic he should have seen me as obvious scum but he didn't...probably cause he can't explain why i defended him.

eroto has played a great game and seems more town than any of us. i take back what i wrote about him floating along. he's contributed to scum hunting, his logic has been akin to mine and if he's scum then well done to him. i just can't see him as scum. steeflo and ergo can't both be scum so the only choice i got left is shanba.

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

i won't make an official vote cause my idea all along was to let Jimmy to decide the lynch for today.

i have one final idea but i gotta run now and want a little time to digest the idea and see if it actually makes sense. will post it when i get a chance.

this is when i first had the idea to give Jimmy the decision to lynch for D3. i decided against it because if we agreed as such it would not let us interpret how people are voting which could be helpful for day 4. but at this point we don have some preliminary votes cause people are on record with who they would vote for.

would you guys be comfortable with Jimmy making the final call as to who gets lynched on D3?

[soupfly]

EBWOP: i shouldn't have written: "steeflo and ergo can't both be scum". its more of a "its extremely unlikely that they can both be scum". i just can't imaging them taking that chance.

[Streeflo]

Most people seem to be suspicious of my second vote on shanba. I admit it must have seemed very scummy since we probably in LyLo, but I did think shanba was scum at the time and no quicklynch did happen, so I'll stand by my vote.

I don't really approve of Jimmy getting the decision for lynch, not only because just because he's confirmed town means he has the best scum radar.
Also, to most of us, there are two confirmed towns: Jimmy and ourself. Jimmy also has more people to have to decide from. I'm not saying we should make anyone just decide the lynch for the town. I just think that's a bad idea in general.

However, if everyone else does decide that Jimmy should be the final call, I advise everyone not to quick lynch the target too fast as they will need to defend and claim and other such things.

[Erg0]

Agreed, I'm not comfortable with leaving it up to Jimmy. As I said before, his status only proves that he's not deliberately misleading us, but it doesn't make his opinion more right than any of the other townies. Certainly take what he says into account, but I'd prefer if everyone made up their own minds.

[soupfly]

@streeflo and erg0: how can you be so sure of shanba being scum?

[soupfly]

alright, this game has slowed to a crawl. mod i think we need a deadline or something to get people posting again.