Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Oman]

newbie =\= mini. I am more willing to mislynch an unhelpful D1 of a mini than a newbie. Note: I am not advocating InHim's lynch, my vote is on goldfish.

I'm going to have to look at Nox's again, as, looking at probability, there had to be at least one, maybe two scum on that.

Does this mean you beleive me/Nox to be town?

[Mirth]

I haven't said that, Oman. I only said that I think at least one person voting Nox is scum, probably two. This is based on probability. I don't believe anything of you/Nox yet. (I actually forgot that you replaced Nox for a second there.)

[Oman]

I was just wondering why if Nox was scum you would expect there to be two scum on that wagon.

[Mirth]

I don't know if Nox/you are scum or not. I just what is likely probabilistically. Early bussing doesn't hurt, especially since no one is stupid enough to pull a page one lynch (I hope)

[Oman]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright, I don't quite understand where the debate about the SK/Vig came from, but I would like some clarification on the following quote:

Mafia group (obvobv) - Misses NK for some reason(?)
Vig (pro town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to it being a stupid thing to do.
SK (anti-town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to the possibility of claiming vig later.

I'd doubt all three,

so I'm going to say there is a scumgroup and a vig/SK. We should know by tomorrow (in that SK will kill more pro-town players and vig will kill scummier (WIFOM!))

If you doubt all three possibilities, then why do you say that we have a SK/Vig?

[Oman]

....I doubt all three AT ONCE.

We can have a mafia group and an SK/Vig (read: SK OR Vig).

[Mirth]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

[Haschel Cedricson]

....I doubt all three AT ONCE.

We can have a mafia group and an SK/Vig (read: SK OR Vig).

Gotcha.

[Oman]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

Its mostly a joke. But seriously Claiming town means nothing...lets have a mass claim, everyone claims town/scum/neutral. I bet we get all town or maybe 1 survivour claim.

Claiming town is never taken seriously either, because of its pointlessness.

[Mirth]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

Its mostly a joke. But seriously Claiming town means nothing...lets have a mass claim, everyone claims town/scum/neutral. I bet we get all town or maybe 1 survivour claim.

Claiming town is never taken seriously either, because of its pointlessness.

Then why bother doing it if it is a joke. Premature, unwarrented claims make me uneasy.

[Oman]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

Its mostly a joke. But seriously Claiming town means nothing...lets have a mass claim, everyone claims town/scum/neutral. I bet we get all town or maybe 1 survivour claim.

Claiming town is never taken seriously either, because of its pointlessness.

Then why bother doing it if it is a joke. Premature, unwarrented claims make me uneasy.

If I claimed: survivour; vanillia; serial killer; or paranoid cop I'd understand your problem, but it was a town-alligned claim.

I understand your uneasyness in an overly cautious sense.

[Oman]

Sorry to answer your question:

Then why bother doing it if it is a joke

I play for fun. Jokes are fun. Hence the combination.

[Dead Rikimaru]

I don't know why I thought this year would be any different. Confused School takes too much of my time, especially this year, and from my first week alone I really don't think I can responsibly post every one or two days, so I'm going to nip the problem in the bud. Sorry to all the moderators who have to replace me. I'm sending a list of my 3 setups to raj (Newbie 410, 431, and Open 39) so someone can pick them up if they are to continue.

I'll still be around on AIM... maybe... and my e-mail still works if you need to get in touch with me. If I ever come back here it'd have to be in a year and a half. Wink

See y'all around, and take care. Smile

I was checking the Vacation/ Limited Access thread and saw this.
I though the mod might be interested.

By the way,

unvote

for now.

mod?

[Mirth]

I must say, vanilla claims bother me more than claims of a power role, partially for the reason that with a powerrole there is always the chance of a counterclaim, and partially because vanilla claims are totally unnecessary except for iminent threat of death.

I will do a reread tomorrow. Now, I just want to collapse in a corner and sleep.

[Dead Rikimaru]

I must say, vanilla claims bother me more than claims of a power role, partially for the reason that with a powerrole there is always the chance of a counterclaim,

This is also not true for minis.
In a newbie there will only be one single doc, or one single cop. So what you say works fine. But in a mini it's possible (although unlikely) to have 2 cops or 2 docs, specially with sanities involved.

[Mirth]

I realize this. I'm still just not fond of premature, unprovoked claims.

[Dead Rikimaru]

You should be sleeping...

[Zindaras]

Continuing from my earlier analysis. I find inHim's 176 suspicious. You can say what kind of vibes (town or scum) you've gotten, you can say where you got them from, there is nothing wrong with Grek's post here. I like Grek's interaction with inHim here and I think inHim's reaction is very scummy. I see some implicit defense of inHim by Mirth, don't like that. Riki's entry into the game is very solid, that takes away some of my doubts regarding ben (though I personally disagree with his analysis of ben's playstyle). I think Mirth is being overdefensive here and avoiding Riki's questions. The statistical analysis is completely irrelevant. Mirth pulls the same kind of trick here as she did when I asked her about Grek. She really avoids giving an answer. Seeing the massive amount of debate and aggression from Mirth regarding Grek, and her answer here is odd to say the least. She also completely avoids the LoE question and really doesn't help with opinions on other people. Noting responses to Riki's questions regarding Grek:

-Adam: Grek was wrong. No alignment read, unless I'm missing something. - for that. (213)
-Haschel: Misguided but Town (214). Eh, this links back to Haschel's earlier analysis on Grek/Mirth. I guess there's a small + for being consistent in his opinions.
-Jex: Scummy. I don't really like how she keeps her options open on this one, so a -. (218)
-Pug89: Scum. I think Pug is focusing too much on Grek's early play here, so a -. (223)
-Mexal: Town. Eh, the entirety of this post doesn't give me any good vibes, but not horrible ones either. So +/-. (226)

I like Mexal's 230 more, as I find myself agreeing with his points against Pug. Jex's 231 gives me good vibes. She's branching out and looking at people that weren't looked at by others. We finally get some opinions from Mirth in 237, but they all boil down to nothing, really. Some very minor things, that's it. Things I think necessitate a response from Haschel's PbPA.

Sixth Post:

Here I have a slight disagreement on Mafia doctrine with Zindy: I'm not convinced that all first-day votes need an explanation. In fact, particularly on Day One, explaining a vote can defeat the purpose of pressuring. As for the jester, I'm not convinced we have one, but if what Zindaras says about our mod is true, then I suppose we can consider it. Briefly.

If I vote someone for pressure and am asked to explain that vote, I will say pressure. That's an explanation. It doesn't necessarily have to come with the vote, but an explanation is necesssary if asked for. That way, town can pressure, but scum can't get away with easy votes.

Seventh Post:

The thumbscrews are off of ben and are now subtlely being applied to Mirth. However, he states that

Your Grek case is nice.

even though he has been pasking Mirth about it. If he already understands the case, I'm not sure what the point of his questions were. I agree with his conclusion about Grek, but, we already knew that.

I think the underestimating was not a sufficient reason to vote Grek, or at least at that point (and I didn't even see it as much of a scumtell to begin with). So I wanted to hear more from Mirth and see if she had anything else.

Mirth's logic was good, but that doesn't mean her conclusions are necessarily good as well. After all, Mafia isn't rocket science. This isn't mathematics or game theory, with expected utility and function-maximizing.

Nineth Post:

Complete aside, but it's ninth.

Gotta go home now, more later. My suspicion on ben has gotten a lot less, inHim's still there, Mirth, Pug and Adam are also giving me slightly scummy vibes. Haschel, Jex, Riki and Grek are giving me good vibes, to some degree.[/dice]

[Mirth]

You should be sleeping...

I should have been, yes. I'm a bit of an insomniac.

Zindaras: I thought I answered all of DR's questions. If I missed anything, please point me to it. Especially since after I mentioned that I don't have much of a suspect list due to lack of conversation, DR agreed with my reason for why. As for defensiveness, yes. I was totally defensive. I was under the impression DR manually went back and counted words. I was decidedly not happy about that. DR quite recently informed me of a function that does this, though. I feel a bit stupid, but some technology is beyond me.

You're right, I do answer with a lot of theory, but it's how I function. I like to have a working theory and see if the outcomes match it. If not, theory gets revised. I like to be safe rather than sorry, too, so it takes me a while to form an opinion on actual people.

As for defending InHim, at the moment I just dont think the case against him is particularly strong, as he hasn't said very much. Speaking of InHim,

mod: could we maybe get a replacement, please?

[Dead Rikimaru]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Deadline is extended until the 14th of september[/quote]
KaleiÐoscøpe's last post on this game was on Sep. 06th. Since that day he has posted 26 times on Mafia Scum.
KaleiÐoscøpe's last vote count was on Aug 30th.

Obviously scum

vote KaleiÐoscøpe

Mod, can we have a prod on KaleiÐoscøpe, please?
Uh, wait!

[Oman]

Mod !VC please

Guys, Goldfish has not only played quite scummily (check my analysis for my reasons) but also gone to (OMGUS) town on me and mirth. I don't want a nolynch today, its never a good thing.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

I'm still here, though less active. replacement iis going out forInHim, and VC will come later.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Vote Count

Pug89 (3): Mexal, Jex, Grek

Grek (2): Pug89, InHimshallibe
DeliciousGoldfish (1): Oman
InHimshallibe (1): Haschel Cedricson

Not Voting (5): Zindaras, Mirth, Adam The Amazing, DeliciousGoldfish, Dead Rikimaru

7 to lynch

[Haschel Cedricson]

Alright, after a reread of Pug, I noticed the only thing he's said about inHim was an attempt to answer a question that was intended for inHim and then a general "I'd like to hear more from him". Then Pug never pursued his desire to hear more from inHim; in fact, Pug never mentions his name again.

I already think that inHim is scum, but Pug looks like a likely partner. I have no problem right now placing a

Vote: Pug89

.