Mini #111: Sonic Heroes Mafia (The fighting's over...)

[Jolle]

Random

vote: Mathcam

.

[Jolle]

Since PBuG could make a night kill only once, but remove protections from someone each night, we probably have another vigilante. So we have both a normal vigilante and a one-shot vig (PBuG). Having 2 vigs means that the scum roles are probably quite strong, since otherwise that would be unbalanced (I think).

The other possibility is that some Mafia members have a protection. In this case, the Mafia roles are also stronger than normal, because normally Mafia members don't have any protections. So I think the scum roles are quite strong in this game.

[Jolle]

Does it really matter what the scum roles are? I don't care which one is Mafia; Robotnik, Eggman or even someone else.

[Jolle]

Well, I'll Unvote:Quagmire and, Vote:dragonmaster, just to get a random bandwagon started.

I know there isn't a lot to say on day 1, but is just bandwagonning a random player the solution to that? What do you want to reach with it Fletcher? A roleclaim?

[Jolle]

I still don't get it. You say the reason to bandwaggon someone is because there is'nt much to say on day 1. I don't see why that would change is we put a few votes on someone.

[Jolle]

I'll hop on as well as it's the only option (for now anyway)...

unvote: Mathcam, vote: Dragonmaster

.

[Jolle]

Dragonmaster's last post was 5 days ago, and he didn't post in the V/LA thread either. Time for a prod Norinel?

[Jolle]

I agree withFletcher and Quagmire; why not just claim roleblocker? I'm waiting for an explanation.

[Jolle]

If you really want me to claim my role name, then say so

I think it is quite clear we want that...

[Jolle]

Jolle, I think that is an appropriate time for a role claim. For now I'll Unvote: Mlaker.

Why are you saying that specifically to me? Others stated they wanted a claim too, so why do you say that to me and not to everyone?

[Jolle]

I think we all should take a look at the new death scene Norinel just posted.

I have done so, but I don't see anything useful in it.

Unvote: dragonmaster

for now. Since no one counterclaimed Creamy, I think we can believe his claim.

[Jolle]

My guess is that Mojo kidnapped you, and by blocking him he couldn't perform his kidnapping role, thus releasing you. But that's only a wild guess.

[Jolle]

I don't know either, but to just keep on bandwaggoning random people doesn't seem really efficient to me.

Vote: Quagmire

since he's lurking.

[Jolle]

Unvote: Quagmire

, as he's being prodded.

Mojo seemed very eager to claim for a Doc (even for a one-time Doc). Normally Docs don't want to claim that fast.

Also, Mojo was

very

interested about Dragonmasters escape from Eggman:

Did you need to make a night choice in order to escape from Eggman? or did you already blocked someone last night?

Maybe Mojo really had Dragonmaster captured, and didn't know how he escaped. It looks like he was quite desperate for information about what happened.

Combined with Mathcams post about his claim being very hard to verify, that makes me

vote: Mojo

again.

[Jolle]

Perheps we should random waggon another someone?

Another

random player? I'm not sure if it is right to just keep on bandwaggoning. Also I'm not sure about Mojo yet. If what Mathcam says is true (about Tails being a back-up live in a Sonic game), then I'll unvote him. Is anyone who can confirm it?

Other than that, I'm waiting now for what Nanook has to say.

[Jolle]

Unvote: Mojo

IMO, another random bandwaggon is not a good idea. We have already revealed a role blocker to the Mafia. We're in danger of losing other important roles if we keep on bandwaggoning.

I don't know what exactly it is about him, but let's just say that I have my reasons for voting him. I wouldn't mind hearing what he has to say in defense even though I am 100 % positive that he is some sort of evil whether it be mafia or not.

Nanook, is it possible for you to explain yourself a bit more? Is it information you got by your role which makes you so certain? Is it just a feeling you get from reading Prince Kaels posts?

[Jolle]

For future reference, Jolle, if someone says they are almost positive or positive someone is scum without giving much reason or without much reason to think so otu in the open it's proabably their role.

In that case, I

vote: Prince Kael

as well.

[Jolle]

I read the following about the Espio character at the Sonic Heroes website:

His characteristics include a protruding horn, coiled tail, and a stealth camouflage trick that renders him invisible to enemy eyes allowing him to pass by unnoticed.

Prince Kael's power makes sense with that. On the other hand, it could be that Prince Kael made up his power based on that same site. I think the latter is the case here, so my vote stands.

[Jolle]

Unvote: Prince Kael

What I believe is that we about three variations of each role.

I don't think that's the case, since all roles that are revealed now are completely different.

I agree with Nanook that a no lynch isn't a good idea.

Up to now, all claims except for Mojo's were quite powerful. We have:
- A role blocker (Dragonmaster)
- A one-time Doc (Mojo)
- A cop-type role (Nanook)
- A self-protector (Prince Kael)

I'm quite sure that there is a vigilante out there, because of Pbug's role. Also, there was only one kill this night, which means there probably isn't a serial killer. And this list doesn't include the normal versions of the cop an the doc. Chances are quite high that those are in this game also.

The reason I'm saying all this, is: The town roles are probably very powerful in this game. That can only be balanced by either giving the Mafia a lot of members, or by giving the powerful abilities. And while the town side is powerful, I think not powerful enough to justifiy 4 Mafia members. So my guess is that in this game, the Mafia have some abilities.

Being able to kidnap is one such possible ability. It makes sense this way: Dragonmaster was kidnapped. He blocked Mojo and was released. Really, I think Mojo is our best lynch target today. His claim wasn't very convincing, but only barely believable IMO.

Also, other players already stated that it is time for this day to end. The day has lasted long enough, and I think Mojo is our best alternative for a no lynch.

Vote: Mojo

[Jolle]

Jolle: what about PBuG?

You're right; I forgot Pbug in my scheme. But what still bothers me is this: All roles revealed by now are not the normal type of roles. It's very probable that the normal roles (like a normal Cop, a Doc, a Vigilante, etc.) are also in this game. So my point remains valid: This is a very strong setup.

[Jolle]

In any event, my thoughts on the matter are back on page 2, although they're possibly a bit outdated given your apparent ability and opinion

Well on page 2, we didn't have any roleclaims. Now however, we have many roles revealed and none of them is from team dark. It could be that from the revealed roles, no one really was from team dark, or it could be that one of the claimed roles is false and actually from team dark. I think the former, because I still think it's more likely that Eggman and/or Robotnik are the evil characters, but maybe this is something to look back on later in the game.

[Jolle]

I guess it's the only option left.

Unvote: Mojo, vote: No Lynch

[Jolle]

[On a side note, 13k views?? Whoever's just refreshing the page should click the little "Notify me when a reply is posted" checkbox the next time they post instead ]

I guess that's me. *checks box*

It's been almost a day since the day started, but only 1 post so far? Where is everyone???

I agree with Araltaln that the roles who claimed already, should post the info they (possibly) gained. Then we will have something to discuss.

[Jolle]

Wow, many players have claimed already. What about a mass roleclaim?

[Jolle]

4 Possibilities:

1. If Nanook is scum and Mathcam is innocent, Nanook must have investagating possibilities, which seems quite unlikely to me, since investigating Mafia is quite rare. This option is very improbable.

2. If Nanook and Mathcam are both scum, Mathcam is sacrificing one of his fellow Mafia to make himself look innocent. Actually I think this is the most probable option.

3. If Nanook is innocent and Mathcam is scum, that means that the members of team dark are probably the scum.

4. If both are innocent, Mathcam is insane or paranoid.

I think we gain more information be lynching Mathcam than by lynching Nanook: If mathcam is innocent, we know Nanook is probably scum. We can lynch him tomorrow. If Mathcam is scum, we know the members of team dark are probably the scum and someone can investigate Nanook tonight.

Vote: Mathcam

[Jolle]

Nanook has the ability to find a rolename and his ability, hardly an ability which is pro-town, for my opinion, because knowing the rolename and ability is much more useful to the mafia.

Nanook doesn't get to know abilities, he only gets to know role names. IMO, that is a pro-town abilitiy, since it helps detecting false role claims.

And that's why lynching Mathcam won't give us a lot of information as you hope.

This whole game, it has been a question who are the scum roles. Is it Robotnik/Eggman, is it team dark, or is it something different? By lynching Mathcam we will have proof either against or for the 'team dark is scum'-theory. That is very valuable information.

[Jolle]

While I actually agree that you might gain more information by lynching me, I still don't agree that it's the right play. Why? Because you sacrifice a cop by doing so. Lynching a cop to "gain more information" doesn't seem particularly smart, especially when lynching a non-cop will give you almost as much information.

You

say you're a cop. But

we

don't have any certainity. Also, while Nanook isn't a Cop, he does have an investagative role.

Last, think about it for a second. Though I'll concede that I don't see why Rouge is a cop either, it also doesn't make sense for me to claim cop with such a character. It would have been much smarter for me to appeal to the town as a seemingly evil but actually pro-town regular townie.

You could have made a bad claim on purpose, so you could use that as an argument. Or maybe you just didn't think enough about your claim and are now trying to use that to your advantage.

[Jolle]

I played in LOTR mafia on PNW Quizzing and I was Wormtongue, a mafia cop.

I said it was improbable, not impossible. It happens sometimes that a Mafia member has investigating possibilities, but not very often.

[Jolle]

I do agree that we should lynch one of the two, but if I had to decide between Rouge between a sane cop or an insane cop (we know he's not paranoid or naive), I'd go insane, just to go with the evil motif.

He may be evil, but why would she get insane results because of that? Like others stated, he's good at what she does, and why would being evil change that?

[Jolle]

Well we can let Nanook live and let him prove his role tomorrow. then we will know sure if he really has the role he says he has.

What some of you seem to forget is that if Mathcam is scum, we are in danger of losing two townies. For example: If we lynch Mlaker today and at the time he is lynched we discover he was innocent. Then we will conclude: Mathcam must be a sane Cop. The day after we will lynch Nanook, because of Mathcam's investigation.

If

Mathcam is scum and he made up his investigations, we will have to sacrifice two townies to discover if he's scum. This example also holds true if we lynch Nanook instead of Mlaker, only will we conclude that Mathcam is insane after day 2.

I don't really think it's worth sacraficing 2 townie, only to discover if Mathcam's scum. In other words: I don't think lynching either Nanook or Mlaker is such a good idea.

[Jolle]

I am also happy with my vote on Mathcam. I'm waiting for him to defend himself some more, but I don't think I'll change my vote.

[Jolle]

This, in combination, has to be one of the worst strings of logic I've ever heard. Consider the possibility that I am a cop (which I am). When you lynch me and discover this, you'll be back to the same scenario of lynching either Nanook or mlaker, and if you lynch wrong, not only will you have lost 2 innocents to finally figure out the scum, but one of the innocents you'll have lynched was your cop!

1. I don't believe you're a Cop.
2. If we lynch you and discover you were a Cop, we have a 50% chance to lynch right. That means that by lynching you (

if

you are innocent) we have a 50% chance to lynch 1 innocent and 1 scum, and a 50% chance to lynch 2 innocents and 1 scum. Which is IMO better than a 100% to lynch 2 innocents and 1 scum.

[Jolle]

I'll be leaving for a vacation tomorrow, not being able to post until july 25th. This means I have to be replaced in all of my games. I PM'ed the mod in every game I am in, and I hope Norinel is able to find a replacement for me.

[Jolle]

I too don't really suspect Mathcam even more, but am not convinced of his innocence either. But consider the following scenario's, both assuming that Mathcam is lying:

1. After sacricing Mlaker, the town believes Mathcam, and concludes he is a sane Cop. The following day we lynch Yoko, who is innocent. Off course, we lynch Mathcam the next day. The Mafia has traded 2 Mafia lynches for 1 innocent lynch.

2. After sacricing Mlaker, the town believes Mathcam, and concludes he is a sane Cop. The following day we lynch Yoko, who is guilty.

Scenario #1 just doesn't make sense. So whether Mathcam is lying or not, Yoko is guilty.

[Jolle]

Vote: Yoko Kuruma

, I forgot to add.

[Jolle]

I am not scum, so sorry mathcam either you are scum and ratted out your godfather or you are a sop whos sanity can be questionable

Yoko, please tell us what sanity other than Sane Mathcam could have if he is Cop.

I can divulge there names if you wish.

Nanook said during day 2 that he would do that, so I suggest you reveal at least one of the names:

All I know is that IF I survive through the night, My first post will contain a role name and the player it belongs too.

[Jolle]

Mojo hasn't posted on Mafiascum for a week now (and not in this thread for much longer). Maybe it's time for another replacement?

I don't really see it as suscpicious that araltan's character is not on a team.

[Jolle]

I definetly believe Yoko, because he got my role name right and he got three other people's names right.

Why isn't it possible that he is a Mafia member with the ability to get people's names. I know it's not really an anti-town ability, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Yoko is pro-town, does it?

[Jolle]

but seeing as how we probably still have an active cop who's been protecting me

I guess you mean 'an active

Doc

'. Thats probably also what confuses MMCL.

[Jolle]

I also still don't believe Mathcam fully, but not because of his 'slip of the tongue'. (I believe anyone, on matter how experienced, can make such mistakes). What bothers me is that he investigated Mafia on nights #1

and

#2. It just seems a bit too lucky to me to investigate Mafia on night #1 and night #2. Unless off course, he is Mafia and this is a plan...

[Jolle]

Hmm - I think Arataln is right: There is probably only one scum left, which has to be Eggman. Because of Yoko's/Nanooks ability, we already know that Arataln and Mathcam aren't Eggman. So we shouldn't lynch one of them today.

Combined with the fact that I think we can believe Mathcam now (since he isn't Eggman), I think we have a good chance of catching scum today. (Since Mathcam knows of another innocent).

[Jolle]

Jolle, your reasoning is flawed, even if it's flawed in my favor: I can't possibly be considered cleared of being Eggman based only on evidence scum has given us.

"While Nanook/Yoko was Scum, he did have the ability he claimed to have. And his results have been right during the whole game." - That was what I tought when I made my last post. Now I do realize that he off course wouldn't post that you were Eggman is you were scum together. So indeed, my reasoning wasn't right .

And off course it happens

sometimes

that a Cop investigates 2 Mafia in a row, just not often.

Maybe I missed something, but what is exactly Sporks ability?

[Jolle]

I'm Charmy from team Chaotix. Each night, I can investigate someone. At the end of the night, I get to know what team that player is on.

So far I got:

Night #1: Mathcam - Team Dark
Night #2: Mojo/Saberkitty - Team Sonic
Night #3: Fletcher - Team Rose
Night #4: Spork - Team Dark

[Jolle]

Lots. Of. New. Posts.

There is a lot information right now. Like Mathcam said, I think we should be able to figure out the setup today.

I don't suspect anyone enough for a vote/FoS currently. It's a lot of information to process, which I'll begin to do now.

[Jolle]

FoS: Spork76

. Why would we NoLynch at this point in the game?

See how this setup allows for all the information given so far to be correct, yet the symmetry of one scum member per team is perfect... it means that araltaln is lying.

With the setup you gave, there is indeed one scum member per team. However, how can we ever be sure that there is indeed such symmetry? Setups can be (and often are) unpredictable.