Mini #111: Sonic Heroes Mafia (The fighting's over...)

[mathcam]

Sorry, PBuG...wasn't me, though. In the future, you should probably leave all role-revealing to the mod, even if you're dead.

The role description hardly seems pro-town, though. Why would a town have use for this? The only situation I can see is if evil has some pretty sturdy protections. In this case, we've gained a lot of information. For example, we know that there's something that can kill scum at night, and that scum may have protection against it.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, I'm here. I did post in the vacation thread that my posting would be sporadic, but mostly I don't know enough about the various sonic baddies to make a significan contribution. This said, I think it's probably about time to stop. I would say that most of us have a good feel for what's going to be good and what's going to be evil now, so we're prepared for dubious claims.

I also don't have any particular suspicions, so I'm happy to jump on the dragonmaster bandwagon for the time-being:

Vote: dragonmaster

Cam

[mathcam]

Hm. Though certainly not a compelling defense, he's at least trapped into a corner if he's mafia and has to try to make something up later. Dragon, would giving away your role name hurt?

Cam

[mathcam]

No, because if he picked a role that someone else already had, then they could call him on it and we've found a scum, right?

Cam

[mathcam]

Frankly, there are very few roles in this game that I wouldn't sacrifice to get a scum. The scum has the ability to kill, and so our only strength lies in our numberical superiority....so if we can trade off pro-town vs. anti-town one for one, then I'm all for it. The exception would be if there's a decent to strong chance that this player can determine a second scum in the very near future.

Cam

[mathcam]

Good grief. Why are you guys so bent on lynching me? I told you I'm pro-town, and I explained what my role did. If you really want me to claim my role name, then say so , and I will. I have nothing to hide from the town, just the mafia.

I just

asked

if it would be strongly detrimental to the strength of your role if you revealed your role name. If so, then say so, but know that we'll hold you accountable for that decision later. If not, then just reveal, and no harm's done.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm in a hurry, so can't post too much now, but I think we all should take a look at the new death scene Norinel just posted. This might be a sign that there's something useful hidden there.

Cam

[mathcam]

I haven't played the game, so Creamy might be a nickname that I don't know about it, but the character's real name is Cream the Bunny. Anyone?

Cam

[mathcam]

Not that this is by any means definitive, but for some reason a one-time doc strikes me as mildly unlikely for this game. I'm not sure why. Plus, it's somewhat suspicious as a claim because it's extremely hard to verify. Hmm.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, and plus, Tails is a great name to give away as a safe claim. He's a semi-major player, yet not one that would be clear what to make the role do.

Vote: Mojo

Cam

[mathcam]

There are many roles that are easy to verify. Cops, for one. Even role-blockers aren't too bad, but you do need someone to volunteer to be a guinea pig. A one-shot doc is nigh on impossible.

Incidentally, my vote for you has nothing to do with "tails" vs. "a tails."

Cam

[mathcam]

Oh, wait. Maybe that does make a lot of sense. It's probably the case (vague memories coming back here) that in one of the game, you're sonic and tails is following behind you, and if you die as sonic, you still have a life left in tails to try to finish the level. Am I right?

In any case, I'll temporarily

Unvote: Mojo

Cam

[mathcam]

Wooee! 5 out of 6 already. That was quick. Sounds like you better claim, monkey-boy!

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, Kael's almost certainly a pro-town Espio. Why? Well, he's definitely Espio from Nanook's night action. He's almost certainly pro-town, because I think an evil Espio would have picked a different claim, knowing that Espio was being considered as a possibly evil claim. This is especially true as Nanook claimed to have information on him, but didn't reveal that the information he hasd was his role name. I, for one, totally believe Kael.

Unvote: Kael

Cam

[mathcam]

I of course don't want to ignore Nanook and Kael as a possibility, but it's only an extremely remote possibility at this point. Why would Nanook have brought anything about Kael up at all? It puts them

both

in the limelight, whereas typically the mafia would want to keep a little more quiet.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm not sure I see the benefit of no lynch. Yeah, we have roles revealed and that's not preferrable, but no lynching doesn't hide those roles again. It just lets the mafia make a better informed guess of who to kill after we don't make a stab at killing them.

Cam

[mathcam]

If we wagon again, though, we give the mafia an even wider variety of revealed people, which would make it harder for the scum to be stopped by a doctor role.

Or we hit a mafia, which would make it harder for them to still be alive.

Your argument "bandwagonning reveals role which gives scum a wider variety..." holds at the start of the day, too. Why weren't you against bandwagonning then?

Cam

[mathcam]

I think he just left out a "have," but I would like to see some elaboration. What exactly did you mean, Kael?

Cam

[mathcam]

Alright, when you've got nothing, you've got nothing.

Vote: No Lynch

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, the doc should keep in mind who they protected and give them a slight innocence bonus in their records.

What other information are we waiting for?

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, well I might as well come out now. I'm rouge, and I'm very confused. I am indeed described as an evil character, but my role description of that is a cop. I currently have one innocent and one guilty result. My guilty result is on NanookTheWolf, as I investigated him last night.

My evilness might be incorporated into the game in the sense that as a cop I always get incorrect results, thus possibly misleading the town. I know the gut reaction here will be to lynch me, but I urge you to reconsider. If my role

was

intended to mess up the town, then maybe we can make the most of it by lynching my day 1 innocent investigation to determine my actual sanity.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, first of all, I never said I thought Nanook was scum. I just said I got a guilty investigation on him. Whether or not he's scum I think the town should decide. I'm currently leaning toward him not being scum, but I guess we'll see.

I think we gain more information be lynching Mathcam than by lynching Nanook: If mathcam is innocent, we know Nanook is probably scum. We can lynch him tomorrow. If Mathcam is scum, we know the members of team dark are probably the scum and someone can investigate Nanook tonight.
Vote: Mathcam

While I actually agree that you might gain more information by lynching me, I still don't agree that it's the right play. Why? Because you sacrifice a cop by doing so. Lynching a cop to "gain more information" doesn't seem particularly smart, especially when lynching a non-cop will give you almost as much information.

In any case, I see no reason to keep my other "good" investigation secret, especially since if I get lynched, this information will give you a scumbag if it turns out I'm insane. I'll reveal unless anyone strongly objects.

Last, think about it for a second. Though I'll concede that I don't see why Rouge is a cop either, it also doesn't make sense for me to claim cop with such a character. It would have been much smarter for me to appeal to the town as a seemingly evil but actually pro-town regular townie.

Cam

[mathcam]

mlaker was my innocent. Personally, I do agree that we should lynch one of the two, but if I had to decide between Rouge between a sane cop or an insane cop (we know he's not paranoid or naive), I'd go insane, just to go with the evil motif. So I'm leaning toward voting mlaker.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, maybe the intent of my role was to unknowingly deceive the town. Does it really sound right to you that Rouge is a sane pro-town cop?

But if you are sane we just killed off a townie. We would have a better shot of hitting mafia if we lynch nanook.

Yes, if I'm sane and we lynch mlaker, we killed a townie. If I'm insane and lynch mlaker, we've lynched a scum. Why does this make a better short of hitting mafia by lynching Nanook? This is only true if there's a better chance that I'm sane than insane.

The reason I'm skeptical about lynching Nanook is that he has an investigation role that has proven to work. While it's certainly possible that Nanook is scum with this ability, I find it much more likely that the currently-unclaimed mlaker is scum. Where is he?

Cam

[mathcam]

I don't really think it's worth sacraficing 2 townie, only to discover if Mathcam's scum. In other words: I don't think lynching either Nanook or Mlaker is such a good idea.

Exactly true, which is why we should lynch mathcam.

This, in combination, has to be one of the worst strings of logic I've ever heard. Consider the possibility that I

am

a cop (which I am). When you lynch me and discover this, you'll be back to the same scenario of lynching either Nanook or mlaker, and if you lynch wrong, not only will you have lost 2 innocents to finally figure out the scum, but one of the innocents you'll have lynched was

your cop

!

I believe Nanook and he hasn't seemed that scummy to me so far, and we can make him prove his role tonight, so I'm going to

Vote: Mlaker

, at least until he shows up, but probably for good.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, I missed your above post, mlaker. Or rather, I read it, but didn't notice it was from you. You have to admit you haven't had stellar attendance this game.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm keeping my vote on mathcam. I know I'm innocent and I believe Nanooks claim.

This is the line I keep looking at. I know there's no reason to believe me, but

I

know that one of you two is scum. What I'm trying to deicde now is if mlaker would say something like "I believe Nanooks claim" if he were scum. Right now, I'm leaning toward no, implying that Nanooks is the scum. Hmm.

Cam

[mathcam]

Which is IMO better than a 100% to lynch 2 innocents and 1 scum.

Where is this 100% chance coming from? You're ignoring the possibility that I am a cop, which you even conceded was possible in your above post. There are reasons to believe that I am in fact a cop. , which we've discussed before. For instance, why would I claim cop and then tell the town not to believe my investigations? That seems a little bizarre, doesn't it? (Yes, I realize this could be an elaborate ploy, but remember that

anything

can be an elaborate ploy).

Where is everyone?

Cam

[mathcam]

Note this is not

the

insane cop play.

The

insane cop play is coming out fingering an innocent, and the next day after that person is revealed to be innocent, claiming "What happened? Wow, I guess I must be insane." Here I'm claiming that for certain, one of you and Nanook is scum. Not only do we automatically hit a scum by lynching one (and then lynching the other if we're wrong), but after the first lynch we determine my sanity.

I'm becoming more and more sure that it's mlaker by this point. I'm still not getting a scummy vibe from Nanook, and mlaker's last post made me even more suspicious. If mlaker were pro-town, wouldn't he have role-claimed by now? If he has a believable claim, he would have made it by now so that the town knew to lynch either Nanook or myself. Also, wouldn't he have considered the possibliity that I was telling the truth and that Nanook was scum, instead of just choosing to believe (for some unknown reason) Nanook's claim and arbitrarily decide that I was scum?

My vote stays on mlaker.

Cam

[mathcam]

Fletcher, why are you so convinced that I'm not a cop? You're so convinced that you'd rather risk lynching a cop than lynching a townie just to make sure?

Cam

[mathcam]

The only reason I came out is because I saw online that Rouge was a suspicious character. I feared the day would go:

1) Town decided that Rouge is evil.
2) Town bullies Nanook in to revealing that I am Rouge.
3) Town lynches me because there's no way you're believing a cop claim after a scum-sounding-character has been revealed against his will.

I tried to do the thing that would get the most people to believe my claim.

and if Mathcam really is a cop, then I am one foolish player, but I don't think that he is.

I can't wait until this goes into my signature.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, I feel like there's nothing I can do to convince Fletcher or Nanook, mlaker's certainly not going to vote for himself, and Jolle's now away. What can I say to convince the other three of you? The only way it's the best play to lynch is me is if you're 100% absolutely positive I'm lying. Otherwise, you're just choosing between three people equally likely to be scum, one of which has made a cop claim. It's clearly the worst choice to pick the one who's claimed cop, because if he's

not

lying, then you've just lost a cop. On top of this, I suspect that I'm an insane cop, so the game was probably balanced with this thought in mind. If we can determine my sanity, this is an extra boon to the town that was not accounted for in the balancing.

Cam

[mathcam]

A whole Monday without posting? I'm glad we're all so interested in ferreting out scum that we don't even bother to post.

Cam

[mathcam]

Let's break this down: There are 6 scenarios right now.

1) Lynch me and I'm a cop:
- Tomorrow someone other than Nanook or mlaker dies, and you have the hard decision of deciding which of Nanook or mlaker is scum,

and

you've wasted a day killing one of your own cops.
2) Lynch me and I'm scum:
- Woo! Congrats town!
3) Lynch mlaker and he's innocent:
- Tomorrow you have the admittedly hard decision of trying to decide which of Nanook or I is scum,

and

you've wasted a day killing a pro-town non-cop.
4) Lynch mlaker and he's scum:
- Woo! Congrats town!
5) Lynch Nanook and he's innocent:
- Tomorrow you have the admittedly hard decision of trying to decide which of Nanook or I is scum,

and

you've wasted a day killing a whatever-Nanook-is.
6) Lynch Nanook and he's scum:
- Woo! Congrats town!

Note that a right lynch (Options 2, 4, and 6) are all equally good. On the other hand, a wrong lynch (1, 3, and 5) are NOT equally bad. Lynching a cop is worse than lynching a "whatever-Nanook-is" or probably whatever mlaker is (Does anyone else find it suspicious that he hasn't claimed yet?)

Cam

[mathcam]

It sure seems like it. Fletcher, how can you possibly have decided already when mlaker hasn't even made a claim? My claim of cop is sooo clearly false that no matter whatever mlaker claims, you'd believe him over me?

Cam

[mathcam]

Wow, that seems like a pretty tight claim. I wasn't expecting that.

Unvote: mlaker

for now.

Nanook, perhaps it's time you claimed fully?

Cam

[mathcam]

jadesmar, Fletcher actually referenced mlaker's claim in his post. I think he wants even more.

Cam

[mathcam]

Just popping in to say that suspicion on mlaker is rising rapidly.

Cam

[mathcam]

Keep in mind that if mlaker's scum, he can just pick people at random to clear of being SK, because
a) Everyone but one of us

isn't

the SK, and
b) The SK's sure not going to come out and argue if mlaker clears him.

So while I agree that mlaker should post results just in case he's innocent and we lynch him, we shouldn't use his results to clear

him

. We need to decide that on the plausibility of his role claim.

Cam

[mathcam]

Are you so now interested in killing me that no matter that I'm innocent that you will kill me anyway?

Oh yeah, I forgot that you were totally cleared. Pardon me.

Cam

[mathcam]

So your one claim is that Fletcher is not an SK?

Fletcher, can you verify this?

Cam

[mathcam]

Vote: mlaker

Cam

[mathcam]

Yup, it sure seems like I'm sane (unless the Godfather

didn't

have investigation immunity, which I have to say would be a hilarious turn of events0, which certainly seems to imply that Nanook/Yoko is scum.

I have another innocent, but I'm not sure I see the need to reveal at this time.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well, this page already has been a pretty good summary. In short, I claimed cop yetserday, revealing that mlaker was good and Nanook was scum. I also questioned my own sanity, so we ended up lynching mlaker, who turned out to be the godfather. Unless there's some major weirdness, this seems to imply that I'm sane, in which case Nanook (now Yoko) is also scum.

Cam

[mathcam]

I see 2 scenarios in which we could believe Yoko. One, I'm a random cop, in which case none of my investigations mean anything at all so who knows about Yoko. Two, the godfather had no investigation immunity after all and I'm an insane cop (i.e. all investigations are backward). In that case, Yoko is innocent and my innocent from last night is scum.

I frankly find both of these scenarios somewhat unlikely, though Yoko's story was somewhat believable.

I find it hard to believe that Yoko got two roles' names and didn't even bother to Google them to find out if they were pro-town or not. So I would say that Yoko should reveal, and unless it's a darn good explanation, I'm throwing my vote on.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, I'll catch up soon, but I can't stay right now. A couple of quick comments:

I've never seen a cop that changes sanity each night.

There's no way I'd sacrifice my godfather. This is accused of me every time I've been a cop, and you can check all my old games and verify that this has never happened. I would have to have an extremely strong reason for doing so, and there's no such reason for doing so. It wouldn't be a brilliant play any way you look at it, it would just be stupid.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, what's with you, Fletcher? You were hell-bent on lynching me (a claimed cop) yesterday, and then I point you in the direction of the godfather, and you're still after me today?

FOS: Fletcher

for acting

extremely

oddly.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yup, all in all, Yoko doesn't seem ALL that suspicious, but I'm relatively confident in my sanity as a cop now. I'll probably throw on a yoko vote after the count.

Cam

[mathcam]

Well that sucks. Fletcher was my confirmed innocent from yesterday. Now I got another one tonight, but seeing as how we probably still have an active cop who's been protecting me, I see no reason to divulge this name unless we get really close to lynching him/her.

Cam

[mathcam]

Which part? Are you questioning my decision to not reveal?

Cam

[mathcam]

Ah, yes. I did indeed mean "doc."

Cam

[mathcam]

You're kidding, right? You're suggesting hanging me, Captain Observant, for a slip of the "tounge"? Not to mention the fact that I'm a claimed cop with 2 confirmed scum-finds?

Uber duber

FOS: MMCL

Speak up, Araltalan.

Cam

[mathcam]

What's the point in revealing? I'll jump in if we get too close to lynching someone I know to be innocent. Revealing just gives the mafia more information.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, but the risk of a speed lynch is extremely small (if there's me and my confirmed innocent, it would take all 4 of the rest of you to vote to lynch him, plus I check the boards more frequently than most), and I feel like the harm is greater than that.

And the thing about me getting 2 scum in a row has got to be one of the worst arguments I've ever heard. First of all, think abuot how stupid it would be for me to out and therefore kill my two mafia partners. Second of all, it would be extremely weird if no cop

ever

got two guiltys in a row. By the laws of probability, it's

supposed

to happen occasionally. If you rolled a dice 100,000 times and never got 5 6's in a row, you should throw the dice away, because they are almost certainly not fair dice. But you're doing it backwards...you're suggesting throwing the dice away

because

it rolled 5 6's in a row and you find that unlikely.

Cam

[mathcam]

I can't believe I missed that. That seems to be obviously what happened. Not only were there 2 kills last night, but they both happened by being blown to bits.

Spork should definitely reveal who he targeted.

Cam

[mathcam]

Alright, there is a ton of information out there right now. There's no way we shouldn't be able to figure this out. I'm just going to start absorbing...let's not lynch too quickly.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, all caught up.

MMCL, what past games of Norinel's are you referring to, that have such symmetry?

Spork, how do you know that your ability overrised roleblocks. Was it in your PM or did you ask Norinel separately?

Why is everyone thinking that if there's a 4-person scum group they all have to be in the same group? I find MMCL's scum distribution intriguing, but I think it much more likely that it's distributed as 1 SK, 2 mafia, and a mafia spy (we alread know Nanook/Yoko was a mafia spy and not a regular mafia). A 3-person mafia group with a recruitably spy does seem like a lot.

Cam

[mathcam]

Whoops, forgot to preview.

Overrised --> overrides, and that period should be a question mark.

The rhetorical question at the beginning of that last paragraph doesn't make much sense. I meant "Why is everyone thinking that if there's 4 scum, then they all have to be in the same group?"

Also, recruitably should be recruitable in the last sentence.

Cam

[mathcam]

I was thinking something more along the lines of this: http://www.mafiascum.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl?Traitor
for the mafia spy...not a recruitable person, but a member of the mafia who's "secretly" working for the mafia team.

This is still a possible explanation for the lack of kills on night 2. The doc protected Nanook that night, so if the mafia inadvertently tried to kill their own spy, there would be no kill. That or there was a roleblock involved.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm a little suspicious of posts MMCL's posts 491 and 492. The first says he's waiting for a PM, the second says he's got it. The troubling thing is that both posts occurred within the same minute.

I also wanted to point out that MMCL, our only possible role-blocker, claims to have made no choice night 2, so the lack of kill seems explicable

only

by the fact that the mafia spy was not a regular mafia, as I suggested above, and that the mafia inadvertently targeted their own spy.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yes, where

do

we stand?

Araltaln, claimed doc, seems believable in that he's the only full-fledged doc or doc-claim, and most games have one full-fledged doc. On the other hand, this game has been shown to have a one-time doc and a self-protecting doc, which maybe to Norinel was sufficient compensation.

MMCL, claimed role-blocker. Do we have any proven instances of his blocking? There was a weirdness issue with his blocking of someone on the same night that Spork double him up. Spork, you've yet to answer the question posed to you.

Jolle, claimed team-finder. We have evidence that he does have his ability, but this is of course no proof of his innocence.

Me, claimed cop. I suppose you either believe me or you don't at this point, but I tend to lump those who don't in the "foolishly paranoid" category.

spork, claimed additional night-action-giver. Again, we have evidence that he does what he says he does, but again, this is not evidence he is not scum.

sycko - claimed vig, and claimed to have killed Mojo, accounting for the extra kill last night. It's sure hard to distinguish between an SK and a vig, though. There's also a question about whether or not Omega would be good.

Number of Scum: 4 is definitely a possibility, in which case the distribution would most likely be 1 mafia spy, 1 sk, and 2 scum. Alternatively there could be straight-up 3 mafia (one of which was the spy). Given that there's only been one kill per night (except last night), I tend to lean toward the latter. If there's only 3 scum, which I deem more likely, it's less likely that sycko is an SK.

I don't want to say who I'm leaning toward voting, because that would imply that I don't have information about them, which is a waste if they don't get lynched.

Cam

[mathcam]

I certainly agree that this is possible, but it's also a lot to happen in a minute, especially if the first post occurred half-way through the minute. I'm not saying it's impossible, or even unlikely, but it's also something you could be faking.

Cam

[mathcam]

What's silly about that? It's not like

we

know you're pro-town.

Spork! Pay attention!

Cam

[mathcam]

Spork, how do you know that your ability overrised roleblocks. Was it in your PM or did you ask Norinel separately?

Cam

[mathcam]

Araltaln, why does Spork "almost certainly have the ability and role he says he does", and if it's just because we have evidence of his ability working, why wouldn't this same argument apply to Jolle?

Cam

[mathcam]

araltaln, why don't you think there were 3 mafia to start with?

Cam

[mathcam]

Spork, I'm trying very hard not to mentally strangle you right now. If you would read the thread instead of posting totally thoughtlessly, you would have seen several times over the question that we have all asked you over and over. And over. And over again. It is in sycko's post 541 if you need a reference.

Araltaln, while I now see what you are saying, it is was presented in a slightly confusing fashion. There's no need to be condescending to those who found it confusing.

MMCL, it's pretty obvious now what Araltaln meant, and he did say this. How can you possibly feel that this was an error that Araltaln made as a mafia? Keep in mind that making mistakes in general is not mafiaesque.

Vote: MMCL.

He's all over the place, trying to make anyone he possibly can look suspicious. I strongly suspect that he's scum.

Cam

[mathcam]

I think he's trying to say that if he doubles the action of a killer targeting a protectee, then the kill goes through, and that he's not sure what happens if he doubles the action of someone who's been role-blocked.

Cam

[mathcam]

Hey, I'm just interpreting. Don't look at me for answers.

Cam

[mathcam]

So I was right about the same-minute double-post from MMCL being total BS?

Cam

[mathcam]

A valiant effort indeed, MMCL. No need to apologize, the lies may have kept you alive for longer.

Cam

[mathcam]

Hmm, it depends on who was lynched instead. My known innocent was Jolle, so I wouldn't have let him been lynched. If spork was lynched, I would've investigated you. If araltaln was lynched, I probably would have investigated spork. But even then, you would have been about the only target left.

Cam

[mathcam]

Reading the notes was fun. Thanks for posting them, Norinel. I

was

a little surprised that I got Jolle as innocent.

Cam

[mathcam]

Also, I think it's a sign of a good game when it can go 23 pages and 3 months without ever feeling (at least to me) that it was dragging on. Our nearest competitor for length, Pokemafia, went 21 pages in 4 months, and

that

definitely felt very draggy, though it was also pretty fun.

Cam