Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Kinetic]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that if I was the SK, I would have killed Mirth.

I mean, it really works out to my advantage if I did.

1) I can WIFOM the SK away from me.
2) I get rid of one of my major enemies, without much reprisal
3) I have to stay away from my possible mafia, Raffles and Heather. Need to distract the town with them a little longer.
4) Need to stay away from my SK suspects a little longer, so Stewie and MGM are sticking around.

Yea, sorry Mirth, but if Iw as the SK, you would be dead. Heck, I wouldn't have even KILLED after the lynch right away. I would wait until someone put someone at -1, then I would triple kill. (Kill someone, knock Lynch down to 3, have someone be lynched, then kill again after word.)

No, I'm really sure that the SK screwed up royally the last kill. I don't see MGM doing that personally, but he's still higher on my list.

I would still say Stewie seems like the highest candidate in my book.

[Mirth]

Hmm...that is an interesting, though unorthodox possibility. But if you were the SK and you waited for that, and you became the person at L-1, it'd be too risky.

[Kinetic]

True. That thought had occurred to me. That being said, since the SK could kill at any time, I could always just have killed someone mid-day to really mess with people's heads.

[heatherlou]

Why would Kinetic have killed you? It's far more fruitful to kill an active player and if he thought you were mafia, strategically, it was better to keep you alive to help get rid of one more townie to strengthen his odds.

The SK doesn't increase any odds if they keep mafia alive as opposed to town. Not that I can see any way. Or are you saying because I am less active that it would be better for the SK to keep me alive?

I think it's a serious possibility that the SK lurked, after all, the more you say, the easier you can slip up and an SK has no buddies to back him up. If they're not in danger of lynching, shutting up might well have been a good strategy. I do however, think that after the Raffles kill, he knew that lurking was dangerous now, so I expect the SK -if they lurked to be chattier than before. Hence my suspicions of you.

I'm still not seeing it. I still think not lurking would be more benificial to the SK because, if they were an especally persuasive person, they could run the whole game, night and day.

As I said, the SK has no backup, sticking their neck out can get them killed if a few too many people find it suspicious. I doubt the SK would risk their life to take a gamble.

They have no need to risk their life. Even kinetic, who has been one of the most active players in the game, is getting suspicions known and listened to without having to risk their life. Kinetic has been to L-1 sure, but the activity that kinetic generates also provides them with people who support them enough to make sure they don't get quicklynched. In this last case that was Mirth.

So by those criteria, Heather, who do you think is most likely the SK.

Well, by those criteria, it would be either you, Mgm or kinetic. As I said in my last post, I have no huge suspicions on any particular person.

[Stewie]

As much as I didn't post much, I did contribute. I was the one who started the bandwagon on HazzelQ which eventually led to a lynch. A sk would more likely sit back and jump on someone else's suspicions or make several accusations, because the sk doesn't want to create links between him and other players.

Which is pretty much what you have done. Starting one bandwagon is not enough to say you contributed. You have been gone for days on end and together with heather you have the least posts.

Starting a bandwagon and sticking to it until the person who is the target of the bandwagon is lynched is not contributing? At first nobody asked why I was voting heather, but when asked I explained it, several times until a majority was convinced and a lynch was reached. It's not as if I voted for her and didn't explain why, or used someone else's explanations to base my vote.

I think that likely the sk is someone who vote-hopped a lot, rather than someone who stuck to his/her choices. Having said that, none of us really vote-hopped much, if at all.

To answer a previous question:

Stewie, now would be a good time, why you were willing to lynch xyzzy after going silent for two days when you weren't really convinced he was scum. I missed substance.

Because I thought it was important to get a lynch in before the deadline. That way the town controls more kills. For every lynch we don't take we give the sk an extra kill. The fact that he was posting elsewhere but not here, and that his 2 posts in this thread had no content whatsoever made me sure enough at that point that, although he wasn't a sure thing, it was better than nothing.

At this moment I'm wondering why Kinetic believes I am the sk. He's said this several times, with no explanation. At this point I don't think he's the sk, but it's kind of frustrating to be accused of something with no grounds.

At this point, I have no reason to believe that someone is more likely to be the sk than others, but I do think that Kinetic is less likely to be the sk. For a lynch, I'd probably go after mgm, because thought about this a bit and I think that killing D3ssited would have been a good way to divert attention away from himself (I believe it worked, since everyone said "oh, the sk is trying to frame him") but I realize it's not a strong argument.

[Mgm]

Stewie, now would be a good time, why you were willing to lynch xyzzy after going silent for two days when you weren't really convinced he was scum. I missed substance.

I asked that to see if you were connected to that scumbucket, with all the mafia dead, the point has become moot.

For a lynch, I'd probably go after mgm, because thought about this a bit and I think that killing D3ssited would have been a good way to divert attention away from himself (I believe it worked, since everyone said "oh, the sk is trying to frame him") but I realize it's not a strong argument.

I don't see how "he voted him to cover up the kill" could be a stronger argument. If someone dies their suspects and the people voting them are the first to be scrutinized -- not a position the SK wants to be in.

[Kinetic]

Why would Kinetic have killed you? It's far more fruitful to kill an active player and if he thought you were mafia, strategically, it was better to keep you alive to help get rid of one more townie to strengthen his odds.

The SK doesn't increase any odds if they keep mafia alive as opposed to town. Not that I can see any way. Or are you saying because I am less active that it would be better for the SK to keep me alive?

I directly disagree with this statement, as explained elsewhere. If the SK kills off the mafia too early, the town has full incentive to go after the SK. In this case we have two chances to nab the SK without reprocussion. If the SK had hit a townie then he/she could still have enough distraction going around that he/she could much easier avoid lynch on this day. And EVEN if the town mislynches today, the SK can hit ANOTHER townie, have the end game come down to townie/mafia/sk and have a REALLY good shot at winning, probably his best chance really.

The fact the SK waited until after the lynch finished and decided his/her kill afterword is significant. Either he/she was scum hunting (a poor decision imo) or they hit raffles thinking he was a townie.

So by those criteria, Heather, who do you think is most likely the SK.

Well, by those criteria, it would be either you, Mgm or kinetic. As I said in my last post, I have no huge suspicions on any particular person.

And I find this interesting. This is directly conflicting with what you said earlier. First you're sure I'm not the SK, now I'm in your top 3?

That's more than enough for a

Fos:Heather

At this moment I'm wondering why Kinetic believes I am the sk. He's said this several times, with no explanation. At this point I don't think he's the sk, but it's kind of frustrating to be accused of something with no grounds.

Really? Sounds like your own case against Heather... But I'll explain why I feel that you are the SK.

1) You seem VERY knowledgeable about the game. So much so that you were on the two lynches for the game and have very good reasons for being on them.

-You were the first person to vote Heather. At first it seemed like a throwaway post, but then you explained exactly why you voted her.

2) Yet, you have very very few posts in the game. You are exibiting all the classic signs of "Lurking in Plain Sight".

You know a lot about everyone in the game, yet no one really knows a lot about you. These are the aspects I was looking for when trying to find the sK. You fit PERFECTLY into my SK profile.

This post made by you, which pretty much damned HQ feels very much like a SK post to me. It neatly encompaces both of my ideas.

Stewie: yes, I understand what you were saying. I did every single post because it helps me understand stuff. I would, however, like to hear your opinion of everybody still alive, if you don't mind.

1. I don't have an opinion on everyone.
2. I do mind. Giving an opinion on everyone in the game gives the SK more information. He can kill someone people don't find suspicious, since that player would be hard to lynch; they can not-kill someone people do find suspicious, since that someone would be easy to lynch; and they s/he could kill me, if I'm on to them. I generally don't think it's a good idea to offer your opinion on

everyone

.

Since you asked, and HazzelQ doesn't understand, I'll reiterate what I said last page (ie: my case against HazzelQ).

1. HazzelQ makes a comment which only scum would say, namely she says that we can afford to lose a townie. Someone who is pro-town would also be a townie, and would therefore not say that we can afford to lose a townie, since the same argument could be used against them.
2. She explains this by saying that she confused this game with another game. Fair enough, except...
3. She does it again, this time saying she should RC. Once again, she apologises right after, claiming that she confused this game with another. I don't believe a townie would be careless enough to confuse the games in such a manner twice, and therefore I believe she is scum. Not having the townie PM, she forgets that there are no power roles.
4. Saying that she confused the games before anyone else picked up on it only means that she noticed the mistake before anyone else did, so it's a null tell.

You have a very good case on HQ, yet you refuse to talk about what you feel on other players. I do not think your reasons match though. You say you don't want to give the SK information, but to me it seems like you don't want anything to be linked to you about any other players, at all. Even your play on "Day 2" is extremely suspicious, and I almost thought that last minute hammer was scum bussing, and for a moment I thought you MIGHT be mafia. But when everything happened like it did, I am virtually sure you're the SK.

You're playing a VERY careful game. If I was the SK I would have taken someone like you out with my first or second kill. Yet you're still around, still half-lurking, still playing it safe. It bothers me a lot, and that is why you're on the top of my "Possible SK List".

[Mgm]

Wow, almost 24 hours silence. Is anyone gonna talk?

[Kinetic]

I ws hoping someone might comment...

Its Wednesday, I think its about time for the SK to die.

Vote:Stewie

[Stewie]

At this moment I'm wondering why Kinetic believes I am the sk. He's said this several times, with no explanation. At this point I don't think he's the sk, but it's kind of frustrating to be accused of something with no grounds.

Really? Sounds like your own case against Heather... But I'll explain why I feel that you are the SK.

1) You seem VERY knowledgeable about the game. So much so that you were on the two lynches for the game and have very good reasons for being on them.

-You were the first person to vote Heather. At first it seemed like a throwaway post, but then you explained exactly why you voted her.

2) Yet, you have very very few posts in the game. You are exibiting all the classic signs of "Lurking in Plain Sight".

You know a lot about everyone in the game, yet no one really knows a lot about you. These are the aspects I was looking for when trying to find the sK. You fit PERFECTLY into my SK profile.

This post made by you, which pretty much damned HQ feels very much like a SK post to me. It neatly encompaces both of my ideas.

Stewie: yes, I understand what you were saying. I did every single post because it helps me understand stuff. I would, however, like to hear your opinion of everybody still alive, if you don't mind.

1. I don't have an opinion on everyone.
2. I do mind. Giving an opinion on everyone in the game gives the SK more information. He can kill someone people don't find suspicious, since that player would be hard to lynch; they can not-kill someone people do find suspicious, since that someone would be easy to lynch; and they s/he could kill me, if I'm on to them. I generally don't think it's a good idea to offer your opinion on

everyone

.

Since you asked, and HazzelQ doesn't understand, I'll reiterate what I said last page (ie: my case against HazzelQ).

1. HazzelQ makes a comment which only scum would say, namely she says that we can afford to lose a townie. Someone who is pro-town would also be a townie, and would therefore not say that we can afford to lose a townie, since the same argument could be used against them.
2. She explains this by saying that she confused this game with another game. Fair enough, except...
3. She does it again, this time saying she should RC. Once again, she apologises right after, claiming that she confused this game with another. I don't believe a townie would be careless enough to confuse the games in such a manner twice, and therefore I believe she is scum. Not having the townie PM, she forgets that there are no power roles.
4. Saying that she confused the games before anyone else picked up on it only means that she noticed the mistake before anyone else did, so it's a null tell.

You have a very good case on HQ, yet you refuse to talk about what you feel on other players. I do not think your reasons match though. You say you don't want to give the SK information, but to me it seems like you don't want anything to be linked to you about any other players, at all. Even your play on "Day 2" is extremely suspicious, and I almost thought that last minute hammer was scum bussing, and for a moment I thought you MIGHT be mafia. But when everything happened like it did, I am virtually sure you're the SK.

You're playing a VERY careful game. If I was the SK I would have taken someone like you out with my first or second kill. Yet you're still around, still half-lurking, still playing it safe. It bothers me a lot, and that is why you're on the top of my "Possible SK List".

Firstly, I never made a case against heather. So I will assume that you meant the case against HQ.

Firstly, your case against me was nothing like my case against heather in the way that you tried to correlate them. I explained my reasoning in the very same post that I voted for HQ. If anyone wondered why, they could go back and read it. It's my 7th post, for reference. You, on the other hand, never did such a thing. You simply said, repeatedly, something to the effect of "I think it's very likely that Stewie is the SK" without ever explaining why until I asked.

1) Uh... I don't understand why this makes me more likely to be SK. The sk doesn't have any information on who the mafia is. The SK is just as clueless as to who the mafia are as the town is. Therefore, if I were the sk, I'd be on the scum lynches not out of extra information but due to my own thought process which would lead me to believe that those people were scum. If anything, the fact that I was on successful lynches should make me more likely to be town, as a SK would be more likely to let the scum live so that the scum could help him get rid of more townies before getting rid of the scum. You say yourself that I had very good reasons to vote for both HQ and xyzzy, and I don't understand why you think having a good reason to vote for someone is suspicious.

And once again, my vote wasn't a "throwaway" vote; I explained why I voted in the very same post in which I placed my vote.

2)Lurking doesn't necessarily make me scum, and few posts don't mean that I'm lurking. I'll start with the latter point, by saying that you said that I had good reasons for both my votes. Therefore, I contributed to the game, particularly in my first vote, for which I gave reasoning, reiterated my reasoning when asked, and finally explained my reasoning in a way in which everyone could understand; thus leading to a successful lynch.

Furthermore, lurking doesn't make me scum. You'd have to correlate my lurking to being scum by using other games in which I was scum and I was lurking, and games in which I was town and I wasn't lurking.

[heatherlou]

So by those criteria, Heather, who do you think is most likely the SK.

Well, by those criteria, it would be either you, Mgm or kinetic. As I said in my last post, I have no huge suspicions on any particular person.

And I find this interesting. This is directly conflicting with what you said earlier. First you're sure I'm not the SK, now I'm in your top 3?

That's more than enough for a

Fos:Heather

I was saying, based on the sole crtieria that the SK is a contributor (directly answering mirth's question) it would be you three because you guys are the biggest talkers. I am not making a scum list.

[Kinetic]

Firstly, I never made a case against heather. So I will assume that you meant the case against HQ.

Ah, sorry about that. HeatherLou, HazzleQ, they rhyme, mixed them up. I did indeed mean your case against HQ.

Firstly, your case against me was nothing like my case against heather in the way that you tried to correlate them. I explained my reasoning in the very same post that I voted for HQ. If anyone wondered why, they could go back and read it. It's my 7th post, for reference. You, on the other hand, never did such a thing. You simply said, repeatedly, something to the effect of "I think it's very likely that Stewie is the SK" without ever explaining why until I asked.

The main reason I didn't post all my suspicions for why I thought you might be the SK right away was because I have continually shifted my suspicion on who I thought was SK throughout the game. For the most part I felt it would be easier to hunt the mafia and decided to attempt to do so. I also didn't want to give the mafia players an easy distraction to say "Well if you think Stewie is SK why don't you try and lynch him? Isn't he more important?" And the truth is, to the mafia, the SK was more important.

I'm pretty sure I gave some reasons, albeit brief and a little cloudy, in previous posts, but I felt that I really hadn't explained myself fully yet. Since there are no more mafia red herrings around though, I can fully devote myself to trying to find the SK.

As for your "attack" on HQ when you initially voted, while you did point out an interesting theory, it was far from clear and concrete proof. You had to clarify yourself before everyone really joined the bandwagon.

1) Uh... I don't understand why this makes me more likely to be SK. The sk doesn't have any information on who the mafia is. The SK is just as clueless as to who the mafia are as the town is. Therefore, if I were the sk, I'd be on the scum lynches not out of extra information but due to my own thought process which would lead me to believe that those people were scum. If anything, the fact that I was on successful lynches should make me more likely to be town, as a SK would be more likely to let the scum live so that the scum could help him get rid of more townies before getting rid of the scum. You say yourself that I had very good reasons to vote for both HQ and xyzzy, and I don't understand why you think having a good reason to vote for someone is suspicious.

And once again, my vote wasn't a "throwaway" vote; I explained why I voted in the very same post in which I placed my vote.

Agreed, the SK doesn't have any information on the mafia, but that doesn't mean he wants to tie himself to any one in case they come up scum. Townies are mislynched all the time because someone they defended comes up scum or someone they attacked comes up town. Your refusing to share any information with the town is indicative of a highly defensive survival role.

And just because you were on successful lynches doesn't mean you're town, it just means that you are less likely to be teamscum. The SK needs to kill the mafia just as much as the town, and he can't always rely on his day kill hitting a mafia. He doesn't have any extra information after all. Plus, if the mafia gets too big the SK loses.

Its not really your successful voting record that has me looking your way, so much as how little you've posted compared to your success. You're sitting in the back, gathering information on everyone, but refusing to let others read you. It feels very scummy to me, but not in the teamscum way.

2)Lurking doesn't necessarily make me scum, and few posts don't mean that I'm lurking. I'll start with the latter point, by saying that you said that I had good reasons for both my votes. Therefore, I contributed to the game, particularly in my first vote, for which I gave reasoning, reiterated my reasoning when asked, and finally explained my reasoning in a way in which everyone could understand; thus leading to a successful lynch.

I said you were "Lurking in Plain Sight". I have continually noted your immense knowledge of the game, and that bothers me quite a bit. In fact, this would actually go to explain why lurkers were targeted early game. Someone who is gathering information on everyone but isn't letting anyone gather much about them would be careful to take out any players that could be wild cards.

Yes, you contributed to the game, but until now you have attempted to allude notice from everyone. You tried to strawman my argument, saying I had no reason to call you scummy, but when I showed I did have reason you instead just denied that a SK would do what you did.

You even reason that we should find you protown just because you're lurking and trying to find mafia at the same time. I find that suspicious. I never had you high on my list of possible mafia suspects, but it damn well sky rockets you to the top of my SK suspect.

Furthermore, lurking doesn't make me scum. You'd have to correlate my lurking to being scum by using other games in which I was scum and I was lurking, and games in which I was town and I wasn't lurking.

No I don't. This is a special case, as I have noted before. Whether you lurk as mafia or town is irrelevant. I am accusing you of neither. And if someone has been the SK enough times to have developed a meta, then I would be surprised.

If you

were

the SK before I would expect you to act completely different from then so you could point to that game and say, "Hey I didn't do it there and I was the SK". That type of meta doesn't fly with me.

[Mgm]

I ran some more numbers and came to the conclusion that today lynching is the better option.
1) If we lynch, there will be 4 people left, the SK kills one - 3 left. When discounting yourself, a 50% chance at finding scum.
2) If we don't lynch, the SK kills, 4 left (33%). (If we lynch wrong then, the SK wins)

I much prefer our chances with 3 people left. Anyone not voting by tomorrow is liable to feel my wrath and subsequent vote if it ensures a lynch.

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure the SK deadline is Sat afternoon guys. We need to do some lynching sooner rather than later.

[Mirth]

Argh, sorry for not being able to check yesterday. Mountain of stuff came up.

Heather: Why discount Stewie?

On D3sisted's death: Kinetic brought up the cover-up idea first and has been buddying up to MGM since.

On Kinetic's arguments against Stewie: I agree with Stewie that the SK doesn't in fact know who the mafia were until they died. The only privilidged information he has is that he must kill everyone else. No more. Scum lynches should only be looked at as lynches at this moment since we now lack mafia.

Heather: I would actually like a scum list from you now.

Kinetic: your point about the SK tying himself to people doesn't make sense.

As for voting, I agree about the lynch. I'm going to vote now, but ask that noone hammers until closer to deadline.

vote:Kinetic

[Mgm]

On Kinetic's arguments against Stewie: I agree with Stewie that the SK doesn't in fact know who the mafia were until they died. The only privilidged information he has is that he must kill everyone else. No more. Scum lynches should only be looked at as lynches at this moment since we now lack mafia.

I'm not liking Stewie's posts very much. Lynching mafia is something both the town and the SK want, so they don't have any bearing on someone's alignment despite what he's claiming.

[Mirth]

I don't understand why, MGM. Stewie just called Kinetic out on crap!logic, since Kinetic was basically on those very same lynches. As I understand it Kinetic's main argument against Stewie if "you seemingly lurk (if Stewie is on limited access, I don't see how this is valid) and you only post when you're attacking people." While I don't like Stewie's method of gameplay, I dont see anything innately evil about it. While I'm not a fan of lurking, he's not doing it to a degree where I think it's significant enough to be a scum tell. Frankly, I'm much more concerned about Kinetic and you.

[Mgm]

He tried to use being on the right lynches as a defense when it doesn't say a bloody thing. I don't think what Kinetic said was CrapLogic, but even if it was, he should defend against CrapLogic with more CrapLogic.

[Mirth]

Ah, I see, we're refering to two different parts of that post. You're mor concerned with the second part, where Stewie says that the SK would have wanted to lynch a townie, and the fact the he was on scum bandwagons makes him more likely to be town, right?

I paid more attention to the first part, since I don't think anything justifies the SK wanted to have killed a townie at that point. (I'm functioning under the assumption that the mafia being dead now is better for the SK than if one mafia person were still alive, because all the SK has to do now is hide, as opposed to hide and guess who is mafia). I still think Stewie has a point in Kinetic's logic sucking, though I disagree with both of them about it being better for the SK if a townie died.

[Mgm]

Ah, I see, we're refering to two different parts of that post. You're mor concerned with the second part, where Stewie says that the SK would have wanted to lynch a townie, and the fact the he was on scum bandwagons makes him more likely to be town, right?

Yep, that's what sparked post 565.

[heatherlou]

Mirth, i don't really have a scum list.
There are a few things I don't like:
I don't like that Kinetic keeps talking about the SK being extra-knowledgeable about the game. Are you saying that because when the SK kills everyone gets to find out the person who was killed's alignment?
I don't like that Mgm is condemning everyone who doesn't vote by deadline. As he said, if we lynch wrong, the SK wins. I'm all for a scum lynch, but not just any lynch before deadline
I don't think Stewie has done anything particularly damning. I think kinetic is going after him with a force that doesn't match the 'scum moves' kinetic's been throwing out.

[Stewie]

He tried to use being on the right lynches as a defense when it doesn't say a bloody thing. I don't think what Kinetic said was CrapLogic, but even if it was, he should defend against CrapLogic with more CrapLogic.

Let's examine that for a minute. Kinetic is saying that I seem to be very knowledgeable of the game, and therefore I am more likely to be scum. How is that not crap logic? It's based on a false premise, that the sk is knowledgeable about the game. He tried to use that as a point against me, and to counter it I said that IF ANYTHING, if I had that sort of information I'd have them help me lynch town before killing them (Upon reading, I realize my point wasn't very clear, bu tit still doesn't refute the fact that Kinetic's logic was faulty to begin with, which you seem to disagree).

And just because you were on successful lynches doesn't mean you're town, it just means that you are less likely to be teamscum. The SK needs to kill the mafia just as much as the town, and he can't always rely on his day kill hitting a mafia. He doesn't have any extra information after all. Plus, if the mafia gets too big the SK loses.

Exactly, so being on the right lynches doesn't make me more likely to be sk.

As for your "attack" on HQ when you initially voted, while you did point out an interesting theory, it was far from clear and concrete proof. You had to clarify yourself before everyone really joined the bandwagon.

I posted what at the time I thought was clear and concrete proof, hence the vote. If you didn't think it was, you should have asked "hey, Stewie, Why are you voting for HazzelQ?" Then I would have explained it better/differently, as I eventually did. In other words, if there's something

you

don't understand, then

you

should ask me about it; I'm no mind reader.

[Mirth]

I don't like that Mgm is condemning everyone who doesn't vote by deadline. As he said, if we lynch wrong, the SK wins. I'm all for a scum lynch, but not just any lynch before deadline

You're wrong. MGM is correct in pushing a lynch here. We have five players wrong. That's a 1/5 chance of lynching correctly. If we lynch today and don't hit the SK, we basically lose 2 townies. So tomorrow there's a 1/3 chance.

If we don't lynch today, we lose a townie overnight, so tomorrow is a 1/4 chance of lynching correctly, which is worse odds. A mislynch would then also result in a loss.

Even if we mislynch at this point, we get information.

Now then, I don't agree with MGM's choice of suspects, but that's a different point entirely.

As to Stewie: I don't think that non-town lynches make him any less suspicious as the SK (I think the SK is better off now then with a living mafia member), but I do wholeheartedly agree that Kinetic's attack on him is baseless. and that a sucessful mafia lynch proves nothing in regards to scumminess.

[Mirth]

Oh, and for the record, before I forget, Kinetic, since you were bragging about your mafia lynches, your argument is even more crap!logicy because you condemn Stewie for doing exactly what you did.

[Mgm]

We're nearing the deadline...

Unvote: heatherlou; Vote: Stewie