Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Mirth]

Eh, if we're going to be speculating based on the movies, I'd guess Merlin is probably a "quack" doctor, with a random success rate. (Based on the Donkey/Puss bodyswitch thing...though, I must say, Eric Idle is definately all kinds of fantabously awesome...except for the horribleness which is Spam-a-lot...but I forgive him to that travesty) So assuming Pug isn't lying, it's very possible that he protected Nox successfully. (Unless we have another doctor/roleblocker running around here somewhere.)

Oman, the fact that you keep pointing out that you think I'm town strikes me like you're trying to get into my good graces. It isn't working.

I'm not sure if I agree that the best bet is lynching Pug. While the mafia could take the gambit of not killing him, they also possibly lose a night kill (what if Pug, if he isn't lying, protects correctly again?) Then again, this all also depends on the kind of doctor Pug is. If Pug has the chance of killing his patients, it might be better to kill him for the town. If Pug is just ineffective, well he's still a townie. I don't sit too well with purposely lynching a townie.

[Grek]

[mrow] ??? [col]Mafia does not NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia do NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia does not NK him; he is Scum[col]Mafia do NK him; he is Scum[col]% chance of good things[col] Town lynches today [col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched mafia[col]Lynched mafia*[col]50**[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof (no cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Worst case senariao[col]Mafia NKed*[col]00***[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof(cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Cop claims/Mafia lynched[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50***[col] Town lynchs if he is alive tomarrow [col]Town lynches doc tomorrow[col]Doc Nked****[col]Lynched mafia tomorrow[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50**[col]

* Is so unlikely to happen I am going to treat it as the one to the immediate left or right when calculating chance of good things
** Is randomly either killing a doc or mafia worth it?
*** Is really 25%; 50/50 shot of having a cop.
**** Barring another doc/roleblockers

[Grek]

EBWOP: forgot the rest of the post!

I think that waiting untill tomarrow is our best bet. I would like to hear if Pbug thinks he might be ineffective.

[Mirth]

I'd like to point out, Grek, that you're missing a couple of things. The one that most prominently comes to mind is sanity/effectiveness. Even if we do have a cop, we have to garuntee that that cop is sane. Even if Pug is a doc, we don't know if Pug is effective. I also don't want to rule out other killing roles prematurely.

[Mirth]

Oh, and before I forget, I'd like to hear what Goldfish, Adam, Zindaras, and DR have to say about this. I'd also like to have a more substantial post from Haschel, who only commented to unvote.

[Grek]

I'd like to point out, Grek, that you're missing a couple of things. The one that most prominently comes to mind is sanity/effectiveness. Even if we do have a cop, we have to garuntee that that cop is sane. Even if Pug is a doc, we don't know if Pug is effective. I also don't want to rule out other killing roles prematurely.

I suppose I could make new chart that includes cop sanity and killing roles, but his effectivness as a doc, while important to the game, will not effect our decision to lynch or not unless we have some way to find out before the deadline.

[Jex]

Alright...we only have so long until the deadline. If we're not going with Pug I would like to hear who people think is the next best choice. I agree that I don't want to lynch a claimed doctor, but I still don't like the claim. I don't know why, it just seems really off with the character of Merlin.

As for my next choice, I don't really know.

Grek has been suspicious most of the game, but I've started to think he isn't as bad as when we first started. I'm not opposed to a Grek lynch, but I'm not advocating it either.

Delicious - has always played really sketchy in every game and this game is no exception. I always have a really hard time reading her. I'd like to hear more from her as to what she thinks in the game, versus just defending herself.

Inhim: i really don't like. I pointed this out in the beginning. I also hate that he has gone inactive. I don't feel comfortable lynching someone that hasn't spoken the whole game. I would love to see him replaced if he is not going to be participating. Right now is such an essential time with a deadline approaching, and he hasn't posted a thing to help us along.

Adamtheamazing: hasn't really added anything to the discussion. a lot of his posts are joking or fighting WIFOM arguments (which he states are WIFOM so I don't understand why he continues). He doesn't really add anything to the game, but I don't necessarily think he's scum either. I'd just like to hear more from him.

As for others, I need to do a reread of some players. These are the ones that stand out in my mind for now. It's difficult because we have quite a few lurkers and a deadline that is only 18 hours or so away.

for now

vote delicious

. I'd like to hear other peoples thoughts.

[Dead Rikimaru]

[mrow] ??? [col]Mafia does not NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia do NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia does not NK him; he is Scum[col]Mafia do NK him; he is Scum[col]% chance of good things[col] Town lynches today [col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched mafia[col]Lynched mafia*[col]50**[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof (no cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Worst case senariao[col]Mafia NKed*[col]00***[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof(cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Cop claims/Mafia lynched[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50***[col] Town lynchs if he is alive tomarrow [col]Town lynches doc tomorrow[col]Doc Nked****[col]Lynched mafia tomorrow[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50**[col]

* Is so unlikely to happen I am going to treat it as the one to the immediate left or right when calculating chance of good things
** Is randomly either killing a doc or mafia worth it?
*** Is really 25%; 50/50 shot of having a cop.
**** Barring another doc/roleblockers

Wow, thanks a lot.
I was going to make a huge post talking about all those possibilities, that table made my work much easier.
I just have some notes to make.

1- The best case scenario is not that good. If mafia decides to let the doc live the discussion we had today (Grek's plan) will be replaced tomorrow by "Why is Pug still alive" and lot's of Wifom will unveil, and Pug will not will not be cleared, and we will be stuck in the same situation.

2- Doc is Mafia's favorite roleclaim. Either he (the claiming mafioso) gets the real doc to claim, OR he lives another day (one nnocent lynched and other nightkilled) and the get a Cop claim the following day, OR he is a investigation immune GF and is cleared by the cop, OR there is no cop and he never gets lynched.

3- As stated by other players Merlin does not fit corectly a "real" doc. Could be a mod suggested fake claim.

4- If we start switching wagons until people claim more info for the mafia, and remember we are on a deadline.

For all those reasons I support a

vote Pug89

MOD

:

I apologize for asking this AGAIN, but since we are on a deadline could we give a last Day1 prod to the players who hasn't posted the last two days?

[Oman]

Based on the Donkey/Puss bodyswitch thing

He could be a busdriver type role....then someone would have died instead of Nox...hmmm.

Oman, the fact that you keep pointing out that you think I'm town strikes me like you're trying to get into my good graces. It isn't working.

Actually its because I find what you say to be very protown, I'm merely pointing out I doubt you're scum.

[Mirth]

Busdriver? Explain that one please.

Pug, could you please paraphrase what your role is in a manner that is something more than saying you're basically just the doctor?

[Mirth]

Hmmm nevermind, I looked it up. I doubt that due to a lack of death.

[Oman]

Yeah Thats the conclusion I came to as well.

[Mirth]

Oh, my browser messed up and I totally missed Jex and DR's posts. Comments on those:

Jex: InHim isn't playing any of his games anymore, as far as I can tell. We've been needing a replacement for him for a while. (I don't like going into deadline with one non-player) As to other players, I'm least happy with Haschel and Adam. I don't think Adam's really contributed anything, and I'm not liking how Haschel is very subtley casting suspicion. If I had to vote, I'd probably go with Haschel. Goldfish, I can't get a read on. Mainly because she only pops up to spout OMGUS WIFOM-brande arguments against me for calling her out on non-participation. I also don't particularly like how Adam was defending her based on previous games, but that's more a point against Adam than against her. I realize that life is hectic (heck I'm sitting on a pile of work right now myself, and am not getting any sleep for the next week or two), but I think they should at least check in with an original thought or get replaced or something. Especially at deadline.

At DR: If Pug is not lying, then I think he is most likely a quack. (This is based solely on the Merlin character). In this case I'm concerned about type of quack. (I.e. can he inadvertantly kill?)

[DeliciousGoldfish]

Pug's claim definitely doesn't sit well with me. Even before seeing Wikipedia's version of Merlin's role in Shrek, it doesn't sit well with me. But giving an actual name that fits with Shrek is what leads me to believe he may be correct, even if it wasn't a great claim and he hasn't played so well. But on the other hand, he could be Merlin but not the

doctor

per se. He could have taken his role name and twisted his abilities to make him sound more important to the game than he really is.

Oman's swinging around his pressure from person to person until he finds someone who people can get behind on a vote doesn't sit well with me either. He pressured people into-- no, he TRIED to pressure people into voting for me with a "hey guys the deadline soon, let's vote goldfish!" type of deal. And then trying to get into the good graces with other people.... Telling someone over and over again you think they're town isn't a very townie thing. Townies are usually suspicious of everyone around them, never letting someone else trick them into a feeling of ease about another player.

InHim straight up needs to be replaced. While he's been sketch from the beginning, especially his play with Ben, someone else should probably just take over for InHim and try to dig their way out of the grave he's dug.

And right now I can't even scan back to the other pages so... This is my post for now. I'll read some more tomorrow after classes and COE duties... Or later tonite when I continue to decide to procrastinate on my hw and entrance essay.

[Zindaras]

Pug's claim presents us with a conundrum. Merlin is hardly the most obvious doctor role. However, I am personally opposed to an immediate on-the-spot lynch of power roles. There's flat-out too much danger involved. And, while I find Pug scummy, I have better targets, so I'm going to vote those.

Unvote

(if applicable, which I believe it's not),

Vote: inHimshallibe

I know he's inactive, but I think he's scum and we shouldn't let people off the hook simply because they're inactive.

[Oman]

Oman's swinging around his pressure from person to person until he finds someone who people can get behind on a vote doesn't sit well with me either.

Swinging around? Are you kidding me? I have voted twice, one for you. One for Pug. If you seriously thing they were both unfounded and I'm swinging around for pressure, I doubt you are reading this game.

He pressured people into-- no, he TRIED to pressure people into voting for me with a "hey guys the deadline soon, let's vote goldfish!" type of deal.

Tell me where I say "hey guys the deadline soon, lets vote goldfish!" or anything of that kind. You were my logical conclusion after my analysis and I voted you. Stop making me out to be controling the town when I'm not.

And then trying to get into the good graces with other people.... Telling someone over and over again you think they're town isn't a very townie thing. Townies are usually suspicious of everyone around them, never letting someone else trick them into a feeling of ease about another player.

Right, so I'm definatly scum because I beleive mirth to be protown. I'm sick of this. I merely point out places where I think Mirth says townie things (and they are). If I was making an unfounded point about Mirth I'd accept this as a problem, but the fact that Mirth is making almost all pro-town moves means that I beleive her to be town. YES, she could be tricking me and playing extremely well. But I heavily doubt it.

Unvote Vote Goldfish

You misrepresented me many, many, times in there. Which combines with your earlier OMGUS and WIFOM to put you easily above a possible doc. Next time you attack me, get your facts straight.

[Pug89]

Pug, could you please paraphrase what your role is in a manner that is something more than saying you're basically just the doctor?

I can use my magic to protect someone every night. As for weither I'm effective or not, I don't know. There was nothing in my role PM to indicate I be, but there doesn't necessarily have to be, but there was no death last night.

[Oman]

That sentence is obviously doctor.

If he is town (and not lieing) then he is a doc, possibly ineffective, yet saved me last night...hmmm.

[Mexal]

unvote

I don't really know where I want to vote atm. I'll place a vote in a little while. I will say though that it won't be for inHim as he's been requesting replacement in all his games for quite some time.

[Mirth]

All this voting/unvoting is getting a little confusing, but it seems that the most votes anybody has at the moment is two, with InHim and Goldfish tied for two votes, and InHim as the probable lynch due to getting those first.

Mod, can we get an official votecount please?

I'm weary of an InHim lynch. I don't like the fact that you a) your voting him when he hasn't done much of anything at all and b) has been needing a replacement since at least 5 pages back.

[Oman]

I disagree with lynching inactives (not lurkers) on principle. Basically, they don't have a chance to defend, nor do they have any real information after their lynch (I mean, if InHim is scum, we'd have early defence of ben and what else?).

The fact that InHIm has had 0 posts since requesting replacement makes me think he is not a lurking scumbag. But just either an inactive townPC or an inactive scumbag. I feel better(/worse?) about goldfish right now.

[Zindaras]

Skimming the latest posts, Oman is giving me scum-vibes, I'll have to look that one up.

[Oman]

Hold up: you lurk through this whole game and then show up exclaiming "vibes" now is the time for referencing game data to back up your claim. I could accept gut as a reason to look at me, but you're going to want to fall one way or the other pretty soon.

[Mirth]

Deadline is in 8 minutes, I believe. Unless I'm mistaken, I think that InHim is sharing a majority with Goldfish, but got it first.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Day has ended. Lynchscene is coming up in a moment.