Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Erg0]

It's wild speculation at this point, but another possible explanation for the lack of nightkill is a townie with NK immunity (either one-shot or permanent). I don't think that would unbalance the setup, given the lack of doc.

[Streeflo]

I don't know what's more likely:
A doc that didn't protect Jenter N1, mafia choosing to no kill, or a NK immune townie.

But Erg0, you realize that for that speculation to be true, mafia would have to have targeted that townie to explain the no kill.

It makes absolutely no sense that a mafia would rather target a townie rather than Jimmy, the confirmed mason. Unless someone is playing games with us again...

[Erg0]

It's more or less irrelevant at this stage anyway. I can't see why the scum would willingly give us an extra lynch, so I'm assuming that it's either a pro-town power role that we haven't found yet or a really strange gambit. Either way, it doesn't affect the play.

[Erotomachia]

I didn't want to claim, but it looks like I have to.

I'm the doctor. I protected Jimmy R last night. It should be pretty obvious that the mafia wouldn't choose to no-kill with a confirmed innocent around.

Here are my other night actions:

Night 1: Picked a random number and ended up protecting Langley.
Night 2: Jenter was the obvious choice, so I tried to outguess the mafia by protecting Jimmy R. Obviously, this didn't work.
Night 3: I had to choose between Gatorguy and Jimmy. To be honest, I felt that Jimmy was the better player and thus more valuable to the town in hunting scum. That's why I protected him.
Night 4: I protected Jimmy R - he was the only logical choice. I was really pleased because I knew the last scum would try killing Jimmy and I'm pretty sure they thought that there was no doctor at this point. So this must have been a nasty shock for them.

This is incredibly frustrating, because we have an extra lynch thanks to my successful protection. However, you're going to throw that away by lynching me.

I owe it to the town to try to defend myself as well as possible, since I know the last scum is among Erg0, soupfly, and Streeflo. We have two perfectly good chances of catching the last scum within that group. Unfortunately the only person who knows I'm telling the truth is the one who wants me dead.

[Erotomachia]

Shanba thought you were a townie based on very weak reasoning.

He was scum. Of course his reasoning was weak. He did a good job of linking himself to me (exploiting your suspicions) so that he'd take me down with him.

And, frankly, I don't really understand how you can think that Shanba and I were scum together. It's almost too obvious, in a sense. I don't see why Shanba, as scum, would defend his scumpartner so blatantly when he's on the verge of being lynched. He would instead distance himself from his partner - and Shanba certainly didn't distance himself from me at all.

Seriously, look back at the interaction between Shanba and me - those aren't scumbuddy interactions.

You attacked TBS's plan fairly strongly on day 1, but voted Oman instead.

If I recall correctly, you voted Oman as well. I don't see how this is a point against me.

You weren't on either of the two scum wagons, and defended Shanba vigorously.

Yeah, I've been a terrible scum-hunter. I'll readily admit that. But that doesn't make me scum. I never really defended Shanba per se: rather, I was arguing against the lynch of a lurker. I didn't want to lynch someone who wasn't even participating in the game. Unfortunately for me, he turned out to be scum.

Over the past few posts of this, you seem to be building a soupfly case centered around how he jumps around with his votes. However, when no one supports you, you jump right off and the next post you "made up your mind" and slapped a vote on me.

Well, I wanted a soupfly lynch, but I had zero support for it. I obviously didn't want a no lynch, so I had to go with what was realistic. You were my number 2 suspect, so I voted you.

[Erg0]

I had a strong feeling that this was coming. I just can't give your claim any weight at this stage of the game because it would be so easy for you to set it up if you're scum, and there's absolutely no way to confirm whether you're telling the truth.

Having said that, I don't buy it. Trying to outguess the scum on night 1 would not be a good play, because a live vigilante is much more valuable than a live mason. In addition to that, if Jimmy died then it would have confirmed him and Gator as masons, which would have been an ok result if one townie had to die. Doctors don't take a chance like that on night 1, they protect the guy with the most important role. If I were the doc, I'd protect Jenter over Jimmy R 100 times out of 100.

Unfortunately, the smart play is not to lynch the claimed doctor with 5 players left and a mason still around, because if you're really a doctor you'll be NKed tonight anyway and tomorrow will be a lot easier than it would be if we lynched you. I'm just going to have to switch the order of the last two lynches.

Unvote

Dammit, I was hoping I wouldn't have to choose between soupfly and Streeflo.

[Streeflo]

Unvote

[Streeflo]

I'd have to say, your N1 action is pretty incriminating, but choosing to no kill to play a gambit like this seems unlikely. I believe you.

[Erg0]

*cough*WIFOM*cough*

I don't think it's that unlikely, but I do think it's unlikely to succeed.

[Streeflo]

To me, the choice now is obvious. As I've said, Erg0 has played solidly and

generally

his thoughts agree with my own.

During Day 2, I was fully intending to vote TBS the first chance I got, but Erg0 got to it first.
Today, I was fully intending to vote Erotomachia the first chance I got but Erg0 once again got it down first.

In my eyes, there are three possible scum left with two possible mislynches.
Erotomachia, Soupfly, and Erg0.

I personally just don't see an Erg0-shanba scumpair. It just seems extremely unlikely.
If Erotomachia doesn't die tonight, we lynch him tomorrow. It would be foolish for scum to not kill Doc tonight otherwise.
That just leave soupfly, and between Erg0 and soupfly, it's soupfly.

Erg0 with his first votes on TBS and shanba, actively scum-hunting among other generally good play.
Soupfly seemed to suspect everyone and jump around constantly with his votes near the end of yesterday.

Vote: soupfly

[Streeflo]

*cough*WIFOM*cough*

I don't think it's that unlikely, but I do think it's unlikely to succeed.

I think scum would prefer a 4 person LyLo situation over fake claiming Doc and getting instantly lynched when he survived the night.

[Erg0]

Maybe, but it was pretty obvious whose head was on the block today. In Erotoscum's position I would have proceeded as if I were going to be lynched the next day unless something happened overnight to give the town pause.

[Erg0]

Ugh. I could flip a coin.

Vote: soupfly

Haut Boy seems to spend a lot of time focusing on him on Day 1 when he (soupfly) is in no danger of being lynched. I suspect Haut Boy decided to ignore TBS and pay attention to his other buddy in order to mix things up - it's rare that scum will ignore both of their partners completely when entering the game.

As my analysis on Day 3 showed, there's not that much to tell between them when looking at their relationship with TBS (barring the apparent distancing by TBS, though that's less relevant now that we have more to look at). Streeflo's quick jumps onto both scum wagons while souply was being wishy-washy also work in his favour. Other than that, either soupfly is scum playing badly or Streeflo is scum playing well.

Or, of course, Eroto is scum.

[soupfly]

please don't hammer me until i get a chance to respond. L-1 and i've only posted once today.

[Streeflo]

Hm, let's assume Eroto is scum fakeclaiming the doc.

So today there are 5 alive, 1 confirmed.
Say we mislynch soupfly, you, or me.

That leaves 4 alive, 1 confirm.

If Eroto chooses to NK Jimmy, town can lynch him immediately.
If Eroto NKs another unconfirmed townie, then the next day will be down between him and whoever he wanted to stay alive, with Jimmy being the deciding vote.

If Eroto chose to no kill, then... Ah, I see what you mean now.

I'm still banking on the fact that Erg0 is not scum for reasons already listed. Therefore from my position, we either win today or tomorrow.

[Streeflo]

Ugh, simul-posted with two people.

I wouldn't worry about being hammered. If Erotomachia hammered now, he'd be a dead man tomorrow.

[Erg0]

I didn't see Streeflo's intervening post, just the one I replied to. Oh well, vote stil lstands right now.

soupfly, please be aware that I actually think that Eroto is more likely to be scum than you, but it makes more sense from a numbers perspective to clear the extra townie now. If you're a townie, you'll still win when we do.

[soupfly]

as much as i would like to stick around to end game i don't think that would be a good idea. the problem is that even if i do survive today, i would be the logical choice to lynch when we are down to 3 people. in any case jimmy doesn't die tonight because he either gets protection by Eroto or eroto continues his gambit and NK's somebody else. that means that jimmy would have the final choice and unfortunately i would not get the benefit of the doubt going head to head with any of you which means that town would lose.

it doesn't makes sense to lynch eroto following his claim so i guess i'm the odd man out.

ultimately its going to come down to Jimmy deciding between:

-streeflo and Erg0 --> i would say streeflo is the guilty one here.

or

-streeflo/Erg0 and eroto --> WIFOM FTW! I don't envy jimmy's choice in this case.

i'm not gonna bore you all with a long post extolling my virtues as a pro-town player cause you guys have all read the thread multiple times. so unless you guys have a change of heart regarding my alignment, and really feel that i'm definitely a townie, i'm ready to meet my fate.

[soupfly]

if i'm gonna be lynched, i would appreciate it if jimmy cast the final vote for me and not eroto.

[Erg0]

Judging by his last post, I think Jimmy's going to be away for a few days. No rush, though - I'm happy to let this sit until everyone's ready.

[Jimmy R]

Not gone yet, thought it was Friday yesterday, heh.

Anyway,

Vote Soupfly

Seems like the best idea today. I

think

I believe Ero, will be very interesting to see what happens tonight

if

Soupfly is not the remaining scum.

[soupfly]

You, soupfly, are a townie. You have no powers except the vote. You win with the town.

Go town!

[Erg0]

I hate it when I'm right the first time and wrong the second time... seems to be happening a lot lately.

Ah well, let's see what tomorrow brings.

[Erotomachia]

That was pretty fast...

We have one more chance then.

Trying to outguess the scum on night 1 would not be a good play, because a live vigilante is much more valuable than a live mason.

I realize in hindsight that it was a poor choice, but at the time I felt clueless. This is actually my first time playing as doctor. And I kept wondering whether Jenter was SK or something.

[Maz Medias]

Lynch.

A quick discussion finds the living members of the town deciding upon

soupfly

for the days lynch. He stoically approaches the gallows and hangs himself, sacrificing his life - but not his pride - for the town. He was a

Townsperson.

Night falls. Go go go!