Blitz 16: Blitz Greatest Idea Mafia(GAME OVER)

[davesaz]

I'll go over the logic again in a bit. Looks incriminating for now. Still wonder how ranger didnt become maf tgt.

[RadiantCowbells]

You do have something of a point.

But Black has been so ungodly scummy today that I don't really see myself changing my vote.

[BlackStar]

You do have something of a point.

But Black has been so ungodly scummy today that I don't really see myself changing my vote.

I liked the part where you explained how I've been "ungodly scummy" today. Oh wait... You didn't. You're doing the same thing that you did with Frozen Angel: as soon as the attention shifts to someone and they're under suspicion you act like they're definitely scum. Remember all the "OMG are you scum, FA? You are, aren't you! I'm sure of it!" posts you made on d2? Remember how wrong you were? Well it's happening again -_- I don't know why Ranger said that I visited Lane but I know that I sure as hell didn't.

[RadiantCowbells]

*blows a kiss to FA*

Sorry for getting you vigged

[Almost50]

We know we do have at least one mafia member on the loose. So let's consider the possibilities.

Persy is the lone scum left (mafia): Why would he confirm Ranger? And why would she say see saw BS as visiting lane?

RC is the lone scum left (mafia): Why is BS showing as visiting lane?

Dave is the lone scum left (mafia): Same.

Almost is the lone scum left (mafia): Ah! He's lying about his targets. But how does that explain the WW vig claiming they targeted Persy, yet Persy didn't get shot?

BS is the lone scum left (mafia): Makes some sense, but why didn't he switch Ranger for someone else & shoot that spot?

Ranger is the lone scum left (mafia): She's lying, but she knows she'll be lynched in the morrow for it.

This means that there's a slight chance we have only 1 scum left, but if that's the case then BS is.

DO we have two mafia members left then? This would mean we are in MyLo already, so we better be careful who we lynch.

There's also the possibility of us having one more WW + 1 or 2 mafia members left, which would be complicated to analyse at best, but I will try.

For now I'll conclude that IF AND ONLY IF there's only one scum (we know it would be a mafioso if that's the case) then that will be BS.

Please hold your votes though while I try to work the other possibilities out.

[RadiantCowbells]

If there's 2 scum, it has to be Ranger + someone else or Blackstar + someone else.

Since Ranger is objectively the townier of the two by far, we are lynching Blackstar. We can worry about additional scums later.

[Almost50]

1 WW + 1 or 2 Mafia left:

When Smithereens claimed it was an intentional attempt to out the Bus Driver who had messed up with her kill, thus leading her to shoot one of her partners. Possibilities:

Pesry is the remaining WW: But she did shoot at that spot.

RC is the remaining WW: But that is presumably where the WW factional kill was diercted at. Unless the WWs made a gambit trying to conceal their existence and were content with their vig kill.

Dave is the remaining WW: Can anybody come up with a reason why this is not the case? I don't fully understand the night kill choices though.

Almost is the remaining WW: Switching Persy for Starbuck makes no sense when Smithereens was going to shoot that spot.

BS is the remaining WW: Doesn't explain the lane NK was done by gun. Plus why would TWO WWs visit the same target?

Ranger is the remaining WW: Why would she kill the ROLECOP when instead of FA. We know FB couldn't have targeted his own spot with a shot, so the shot on my spot was his, which I understand, but the factional kill went to Jackal's spot. Did they expect me to hide FA/Persy there?? Because neither the Cop nor the Rolecop represent much threat on WWs. She might've needed Persy alive though to verify her role.

Conclusion: If a WW still exists it's between Dave & Ranger. The remaining mafia members (1 or 2) are yet unknown and will need further analysis to try and out them.

[Almost50]

@RC: Please produce an argument with analysis to support your statement(s). I'm trying to cover all possibilities in light of the info we have. WIFOM is extremely dangerous at this stage.

[RadiantCowbells]

I am town.

There is confirmed scum in Blackstar/Ranger.

Blackstar is scummy as shit.

->

I lynch Blackstar.

[Almost50]

Mate, that's your story. Try coming up with something undebatable. For one thing, you'd notice I included myself as a suspect. Don't I know I'm town myself? I do, but I do not expect other to just take my word for it. I have to consider the possibility and show you ANALYTICALLY that I cannot be scum for the given reason(s).

For another thing, I have yet to come up with a possibility in which you would be a suspect, so why the hurry?

@Everybody: Please DO read in details AND DOUBLE CHECK for yourselves. Do NOT take any of my conclusions for granted. I'm very well open to discussion as I know I'm not perfect and could indeed make a mistake here or there. Once you've read, comprehended and become convinced of my reasoning for a certain case move on to the next. If there's something missing that you think would implicate someone I cleared or clear (beyond doubt) someone I put as a suspect in any given scenario, PLEASE SHARE.

I know time is tight, but there's no room for mistakes either. Thank you all.

[RadiantCowbells]

Do you agree or disagree with my premise: that there is confirmed scum in Blackstar and Ranger?

[Persivul]

1 WW + 1 or 2 Mafia left:

It can't be 1 WW + 2 mafia left. Out of 6 remaining there are at least 4 town per the initial requirements. At most 2 scum remain.

[Persivul]

@almost50
Ugh... Alright, I guess. I'm the town bus driver.

I targeted Persivul and radiantcowbells on N1.

But RC didn't die and Starbuck/droog did instead. I PMed my night action to the mod really early and didn't look at it again until now so I kind of forgot that I targeted RC and not Starbuck. I guess I also didn't care because a werewolf died. Since RC is still alive that must mean that there's a second bus driver.

Bump so I don't have to search for it again.

[Almost50]

2 mafia remain:

Persy + RC: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Persy + Dave: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Persy + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Percy + BS: Why does Persy confirm Ranger's target when he simply could've claimed anything to implicate her and get her lynched today, and win by virtue of the night kill tonight or even the next night.

Percy + Ranger: Pesry confirming dave + the Mason's debate on D1 make this look very very unlikely, not to mention Ranger trying to derail the Wednesday wagon by getting Percy lynched instead. VERY unlikely.

RC + Dave: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

RC + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

RC + BS: Why did BS protect me tonight? They should've shot me instead. Why didn't they shoot Persy either to create a big WIFOM?

RC + Ranger: This would be a classic. I need someone to refute this one analytically.

Dave + Almost: Does not explain BS visiting lane.

Dave + BS: Dave would know whom to clear alight, so doesn't necessarily need to be a Cop to begin with, but then he DID visit Jackal as per Percy's confirmation. Still a valid possibility (makes sense to kill the Rolecop is Dave is NOT a cop. It makes sense he would try to clear BS at first (post # 1570) then try to bus him next when it failed (post # 1577). Then 1573 bugs me the most. I don't see dave to be the noob not to know he would not have got a result on a target that had been NK'd. It could be a slip, but it's something to ponder on.

Dave + Ranger: Another one I cannot prove to be an impossible or a very remote possibility.

Almost + BS: Why would we BOTH try to protect Persy on N1? And why did we BOTH claim our roles?

Almost + Ranger: Our best move would've certainly been moving Ranger off her spot to set Persy up. Yet again, we might've been afraid of FB and saw Persy could still verify Ranger's role. The other switch makes sense (myself for BS then getting my spot shot), and I have proof of my 1st switch (dave for RC) since no attempt was made on either.

BS + Ranger: Is she bussing her partner for no reason? They basically win if we mislynch today.

The remaining mafia duo are one of the following 4 either: RC + Ranger, Dave + BS, Dave + Ranger, Almost + Ranger.

Now combining all possibilities yields 8 remaining possibilities:

1- BS is lone mafia remaining.
2- RC + Ranger are Mafia
3- Dave + BS are Mafia
4- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
5- Almost + Ranger are Mafia
6- Dave is a WW; RC + Ranger are Mafia
7- Dave is a WW, Almost + Ranger are Mafia
8- Ranger is a WW, Dave + BS are Mafia

Persy is analytically 100% clear. It follows that Ranger's role is confirmed as a coroner.

Once again, please verify my reasoning for excluding the cases I did first (to make sure they are indeed impossible). Next up, check the ones I left as possible and try to find a reason to refute that possibility, so as to minimize our options. For example, Dave can't be mafia rules out 2 possibilities, while him not being a WW rules out 2 other possibilities, so Dave is NOT scum = only 4 possibilities remaining, while Ranger is NOT scum leaves us with only 2 options. I would very much be happy to have someone clearing her beyond any reasonable doubt bc that would mean an automatic lynch for BS, and if the game doesn't end then the next one is dave.

Thank you for your consideration. I hereby rest my case.

[Persivul]

At this time I do believe a massclaim should help:

I'm a Town BusDriver with DOUBLE-DOWN Modifier.

My 1st switch was Persy for Starbuck (which is why I believe Smithereens claim, obviously). My second switch was myself for BlackStar.

Spoiler: Reasons

Reason for 1st switch: I wasn't sure of Persy's alignment (still am not) but thought I'd protect him IF he was town. It didn't seem logical to protect him over someone more likely to be town, and as I had no problem of losing Starbuck anyway it seemed like the best move. A nightkill targeted at Persy would serve to rid us of a totally unknown, but -more importantly- would prove he is not <insert alignment here> depending on the method of the NK. Unfortunately; Town Vig never occurred to me.

Reason for 2nd switch: I didn't want to get NK'd myself. I picked someone who was being more quiet than not, so they probably would not have been targeted by any killer anyway, so I was safe. I also thought BS was less likely to be scum than -say- Starbuck or Jackal so I picked him over them both (in case I was investigated myself. I would not want to escape a NK only to find myself lynched based on evidence I personally faked on me). It was close between him and dave, but I saw BS to be a little bit more townier than dave.

Bump

[Almost50]

Do you agree or disagree with my premise: that there is confirmed scum in Blackstar and Ranger?

Disagree. The correct phrasing where I'm standing now is "high possibility" not "confirmed. And, even if I agree -just for the sake of argument- we make the wrong choice we could still lose.

[Almost50]

It can't be 1 WW + 2 mafia left. Out of 6 remaining there are at least 4 town per the initial requirements. At most 2 scum remain.

Th○7t's absolutely correct. Then I must work the possibilities for 1 WW + 1 Mafioso & disregard the bottom 3 options in my previous post.

[Persivul]

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger

targeted

lane, not that she

visited

lane. It's possible she's lying about her role and results. I doubt that she's lying - it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

[Almost50]

This means our new 7 options are:

1- BS is lone mafia remaining.
2- Dave is a WW, BS is mafia
3- Ranger is a WW, BS is mafia
4- RC + Ranger are Mafia
5- Dave + BS are Mafia
6- Dave + Ranger are Mafia
7- Almost + Ranger are Mafia

Correct?

[Almost50]

BTW, my tracking ability tells me that Ranger targeted lane, not that she visited lane. It's possible she's lying about her role and results. I doubt that she's lying - it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Yes, but who targets the dead? To my knowledge only the coroner does. In fact I didn't know such a role existed either.

Also, what are you trying to tell me with your quotes of BS & my N1 action posts? I'm sorry, but my mind is taking a short break after doing this in-depth yet quick analysis, so the obvious might still escape me at this time. (That's why I'm asking you to help refute some of my arguments either way).

[Almost50]

it would have been very easy to name a single person and I think most of us would have been happy with the clarity and lynched them.

Actually; that would've been a slip. We know for a fact Smither/Fireball had the gravedigger modifier on them. She could've fell back on "that goes without saying" though.

[Persivul]

I believe we may be overthinking this.

As I read the wiki, a bus driver swaps actions made ON two players. It doesn't swap the actions made BY the two players.

Blackstar doesn't even claim to have targeted lane with his bus drive. So, it doesn't matter if he was driven himself. If he didn't target lane himself in some way, a bus drive wouldn't make him show up in the coroner's report.

Need to think some more on this before voting, but I currently think:

- we lynch Blackstar today
- I track RC and davesaz cops RC tonight. He can't kill both of us.

[Almost50]

Wait: Something hit me, and I need your input. It's weak, but it could help YOU see things better: I did state my exact N2 switches BEFORE dave made his investigation results know. If I'm not lying about my switch targets then I'm NOT mafia. Now how do I prove I wasn't lying??

[Persivul]

Also, what are you trying to tell me with your quotes of BS & my N1 action posts?

Nothing, just bumping them so I can find them easier.

[Almost50]

Blackstar doesn't even claim to have targeted lane with his bus drive. So, it doesn't matter if he was driven himself.

Yes. I'm considering options 4, 6 & 7 though. If either is true then Ranger is covering up for herself or her partner, putting some other person's name instead so that we would lynch them, and the mafia wins with their night kill.