Newbie 480: Game Over!

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Vote: Civil Scum

to beat anyone else from making the obvious vote.

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Hmmm.... I've been wine-in-front-of-me-ing for a while trying to determine what to make of what's been done so far. The fact that Porachaz voted for CS to put him at L-2 slightly early in the game suggested to me that they might be connected. (And actually, CS's first request struck me as the reaction of someone new who didn't want to be the first day lynch which indicates nothing of scumminess or not; the second request (as was pointed out by others) is a little bit stranger) The fact the we now have two L-2 bandwagons appears to be a good thing for the town, but the fact that both wagons (Noob question: is wagon the appropriate term at L-2 on day 1 or does it have to be L-1 to be considered a wagon?) are unstable in the sense that each wagon contains a vote from the person being threatened by the other wagon and that makes me wonder whether CS's action was designed to look like he's helping the town while not actually helping as much as it would seem. So, I'm keeping my vote on Civil Scum for now,

FOS'ing Porochaz

and hoping one of the other uncommitted people either starts a 3rd bandwagon or pushes one of these two to L-1.

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I'll have to keep this short, which will hopefully as a side benefit keep it readable:

1) I may have made a mistake by FOS'ing Porochaz; I still think there's the possibility that Porochaz and Civil Scum are working together under the premise of Porochaz throwing Civil Scum under the bus, but the more I thought about it, the more it got into them having to have decided to try it right off that bat under the theory that it wouldn't look suspicious by looking suspicious... in other words, like I think I put it, it's more likely that i had a serious case of Wine-In-Front-Of-Me-ness and in hindsight, I should have tried probing someone else.

2) I'm rather concerned that Porochaz, Civil Scum, and myself have all gotten wrapped into a discussion and it's been quiet from everyone else... especially at our IC brethren who I would have thought should have stepped in (or will step in shortly since this has been the weekend) to ensure that the town has some potential information to work on for day 2.

Lastly, I've gotten wicked spoiled by Gmail apparently; is there any way to start a reply and save it as a draft or should I just cut and paste what I started to write and save it somewhere else (possibly gmail to deal with the fact that there are about 4 computers I use in any given day and if I save it to one, Murphy says that I'll end up spending all my time for the rest of the day at the other 3)

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Responding to Ripley's comments:
I agree that I'm probably being a bit impatient (reading through other games prior to playing this one really doesn't get across the time delay between postings). By stepping in, I just mean I expected one of the IC's to act as the voice of reason and point out that having only 3 people talking in a circle isn't getting us very far and maybe this was an unreasonable expectation on my part.

In response to Civil Scum's questions:
I was under the impression that having two competing bandwagons is normally how day 1 normally proceeds; looking at who joins which one and who switches between them gives more potential information to work from. The issue being that with the two bandwagons being mutually exclusive means less information is available than if the two bandwagons were separated. This is why I'd want a 3rd wagon that was independent from these two (which would hopefully lead to one or more people leaving one of these wagons).

As far as the putting someone to L-1, I'm not sure I was right there. I was thinking that being at L-1 at day one was pretty safe but am now realizing I'm not sure on the tradeoffs for setting up a 1 for 1 trade. I'm also not sure what you mean about wanting you or Porochaz to be be at L-1 before hearing from them... I was assuming that being at L-1 would still leave you plenty of time to respond and also having someone at L-1 would hopefully stimulate conversation (see above bit of me being impatient).

? for the IC's (mostly): is doing 1 for 1 trading good or bad for the town (to be specific, if someone were at L-1 and someone cast a vote on them, odds are that the last vote was scum so scum gets killed on second day, but this means that on day 3 (assuming no doctor saves), there are 2 townies and 1 scum which means that it's lynch or lose and no useful information can be expected on day 2 (unless we have a cop role claim or I'm forgetting something)... this strikes me (now; hadn't thought it through earlier) as lowering the towns' winning percentage but I don't know if the chance for a doctor doing a night save or a cop doing an investigation counter balances this.

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Interesting on the prodding... I've been less online lately and haven't actually seen the email telling me I have a prod yet, but I see pablito's post (and now need to reread and see if anyone asked for me to be prodded or if Pabilito is actually being more proactive than most of the mods I had seen (i.e. I thought usually mods didn't prod until requested) Anyways:

I came in with certain assumptions which may or may not have had any validity to them. These are below and hopefully justify why I've said/done what I've done so far. More importantly, my original intention was to then lay out why I'm still most suspicous of CS, by laying out places where he appears to be strategically twisting what I've been saying, the problem being that when I went back to cite places where he did, if I look at them objectively, he's making certain assumptions which are opposite certain assumptions I was making so I don't agree with him, but I can't say it's as scummy as I was thinking.

Assumptions below

1) Looking towards day 2 is essential. Basically: day 1 vote is a crapshoot but odds slightly favor lynching a townie even if the mafia don't obviousily attempt to influence the vote; this puts us at lylo (barring doc save) on day 2 and so we better have some insight into who's most likely to be scum to maximize the odds of getting to day 3

2) 2 band wagons good. Assuming I did the math right, there are slightly better than even odds that with two bandwagons on day 1, one of them is scum; who jumps on and off a bandwagon may suggest who the other scum is.

2a) Having 2 incestous bandwagons is less good, especially if the only half the group was involved in discussing them. I was overlooking the fact that to get from L-2 to Lynch does require two more votes and unless the lynched is scum, at least that last vote is likely to be scum without a good justification for voting without much discussion (i.e. deadline), but if a deadline came up, I could see scum or town casting the 4th vote to avoid a no-lynch (which I'm assuming is always worse for the town on day 1 for newbie games)

So, now I need to go back everyone else's postings and figure out who I think the most suspicious person is. In the meantime,

Unvote

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eta weird... when I previewed my post, Porochaz's comments weren't there... believe me or not, but it looks like CS is completely off the hot seat.

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Ripley:
I know your comment on dropping out was directed at Peapod, but I've also not been posting that much for a variety of personal reasons and after weighing the options, I've asked Pablito to replace me. Hopefully doing so doesn't make for an overly neurotic experience for the rest of you. I'm going to try to post some sort of last analysis post later tonight but I've been trying to come up with something useful to add and haven't had a lot of luck lately.

Sorry all.

replaced by destructor