Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Mirth]

Hmmm...why would you have Pug protecting Mexal?

[Glork]

....because I'm pretty sure that Mexal is protown?

[Mirth]

No, you miss the point of my question. Why Pug, who you have treated as your number one suspect (and who is very suspicious, and even if not lying, possibly ineffective as a doctor due to character), protecting Mexal?

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Vote Count

Oman (3): Zindaras, Mexal, Pug89

Pug89 (1): Haschel Cedricson

6 to lynch. Deadline is Friday the 5th of October, 21.00 GMT+1

[Glork]

No, you miss the point of my question. Why Pug, who you have treated as your number one suspect (and who is very suspicious, and even if not lying, possibly ineffective as a doctor due to character), protecting Mexal?

Because if he really

*IS*

a Doctor, then Mexal shouldn't die. The scums have no compelling reason to target Mexal whatsoever unless Pug is part of their scumgroup.

[Oman]

Okay, I'll probably get slammed for this, but what if we no lynch and go off mexal's result. We'll probably lose a doc, but we get a confirmed innocent/guilty (I accept mexal as protown).

Of course, we need to work out this whole who protects who thing.

[Zindaras]

We're better off lynching scum. Mafia is a game of behaviour, not a game of "follow-the-Cop".

[Mirth]

Glork, that is based on the assumption that if Pug is scum the mafia wouldn't be okay with trading him for getting rid of a cop.

I'm not too keen on a no-lynch, because we don't know how many mafia we have. Would you have been asking this question if you weren't the probable lynch?

[Oman]

Depends Mirth, the idea is that with a guarenteeable cop result (through a doc protect) with a no lynch is better then a guarenteeable cop result and a town lynch. If I wasn't the probable lynch it would depend on who was the lynch and whether I was convinced enough that they were town.

[Zindaras]

Guaranteeable Cop result? That's folly. For one, I'd put the chances of all the Docs being real, working docs at around 0. The odds of insanity, of roleblocking or even killing docs, are pretty high. Also, given the setup as it looks now (Masons with confirmed innocence, Docs, a Cop, a Tracker, a Vig), I think it would be naive to assume that our Cop is sane (unless Scope told Mexal that he's sane, which I don't know).

No lynching and following the cop are both strategies that make dangerous assumption

Because if he really

*IS*

a Doctor, then Mexal shouldn't die. The scums have no compelling reason to target Mexal whatsoever unless Pug is part of their scumgroup.

And if Pug is scum? If Pug is scum, no team is going to have problems with sacrificing him. He's likely to die regardless.

[Mexal]

Guaranteeable Cop result? That's folly. For one, I'd put the chances of all the Docs being real, working docs at around 0. The odds of insanity, of roleblocking or even killing docs, are pretty high. Also, given the setup as it looks now (Masons with confirmed innocence, Docs, a Cop, a Tracker, a Vig), I think it would be naive to assume that our Cop is sane (unless Scope told Mexal that he's sane, which I don't know).

No lynching and following the cop are both strategies that make dangerous assumption

Because if he really

*IS*

a Doctor, then Mexal shouldn't die. The scums have no compelling reason to target Mexal whatsoever unless Pug is part of their scumgroup.

And if Pug is scum? If Pug is scum, no team is going to have problems with sacrificing him. He's likely to die regardless.

My sanity is not confirmed. I could be insane. Though if I am, blah. I hate bad information.

[Oman]

You got an innocent on the masons, and I really don't see a mason gambit.

[Mexal]

You got an innocent on the masons, and I really don't see a mason gambit.

I know. I don't think I'm insane but the question is going to come up for the rest of the game due to the fact that it doesn't specifically say whether I am or not (of course, I've never had a role that did and I've never been insane so...).

[Oman]

It shouldn't say either way (it ruins the point of insane if it tells you) I'm merely saying evidence points towards you being sane.

[Zindaras]

If anything, Mexal is Naive.

I am reminded of Mini 370 (Reverse). I claimed as Cop, and we thought we had broken the setup, but I turned out to be Insane, and we lost the game due to that.

[Oman]

Well in reverse you should've expected it lol.

I don't like the way you're discrediting Mexal straight up. Sane in this setup makes a lot more sense than a niave cop.

[Zindaras]

Well in reverse you should've expected it lol.

Reverse Mafia was flavourless. It was called Reverse due to game mechanics (reviving instead of lynching).

I don't like the way you're discrediting Mexal straight up. Sane in this setup makes a lot more sense than a niave cop.

And why would that be?

[Oman]

oh whoops. I never read reverse.

Because it removes potential confirmed innocents, for no reason, which is a scum move.

[Zindaras]

Because it removes potential confirmed innocents, for no reason, which is a scum move.

No, I'm asking you why a sane cop would make a lot more sense in this setup. You're putting way too much faith in unknown variables. I'm simply pointing that out.

[Mexal]

And a naive cop means what? That I just assume everyone is innocent?

[Oman]

yep, exactly.

[Mexal]

yep, exactly.

What a pointless role for the town.

I just don't ever see the point in taking a power role for the town and making it pro-scum because that's exactly what it'd do if I was insane/naive.

[Oman]

yes, its just to keep cops on their toes. I don't see it in this game, it simply doesn't fit with what we've got so far.

Unvote vote no lynch

[Zindaras]

yep, exactly.

What a pointless role for the town.

I just don't ever see the point in taking a power role for the town and making it pro-scum because that's exactly what it'd do if I was insane/naive.

In the case of an Insane Cop, this isn't true. Insane Cops do tend to have their use (once you know you're flipped, you can simply switch all your results around). For the other variations, it's balance.

[Mexal]

yep, exactly.

What a pointless role for the town.

I just don't ever see the point in taking a power role for the town and making it pro-scum because that's exactly what it'd do if I was insane/naive.

In the case of an Insane Cop, this isn't true. Insane Cops do tend to have their use (once you know you're flipped, you can simply switch all your results around). For the other variations, it's balance.

So an insane cop follows a predictable pattern? IE: the results are switched?

If so, then it doesn't apply to this game. Glork turned out to be town, as confirmed by several people and that's the result I got. So if I'm insane, then that'd make him scum and I simply don't believe that, especially since his mason gambit happened before I released my results.

As for naive, possibly, but I doubt it. Once I get a guilty investigation, that discussion ends too. So I think this whole insane/naive thing talk isn't really necessary right now.