Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Mexal]

Look at the join dates of the players in this game. Several have joined in October, and a bunch more in September and August. You seem to be one of the more experienced players, having joined this spring. Almost everyone else has less than 5 months experience. There are many relative newbies in this game and is is not unreasonable to expect that we have newbie scum in our midst. Given, as you say, that you understand that others may not have done as much prereading as you did before your first game, you've all but confirmed my point. It is far from certain that everyone would have known that townies with power roles generally lay low.

You're making two assumptions here which you would be good to avoid, both in this game and in the future.

1. Join date = experience level. I joined in July but I've been playing for quite awhile on another site. The only reason I joined MS is because I needed something to fill my time while I waited for a new game to start elsewhere (then again, I can finish 15 games on that site before I finish one here ). A better representation of experience level on this site might be number of posts...at least more so than join date.

2. Townies with power roles generally lay low. This is simply not true. It could be true and sometimes it is, but it's not always true and while you said generally, you're still making the assumption that it's true in this case. Be careful with that.

I am not confirming nor denying if I have a power role. What I'm trying to do is let newer players know that this kind of discussion is NOT pro-town, especially when it's based off of assumptions. You're doing the work for the scum so stop it please.

[Jitsu]

Or maybe Sudo_Nym is some kind of special role that helps mafia but does not get to communicate with them at night? Is that possible?

I keep looking at it again and again, but I can't make the pieces fit. Sudo's play is too awful to be town, but it's actually horrible scum play also. I just can't make him fit as ordinary scum either. I can't believe that he could be THAT stupid. There must be some other explanation.

Jester is a small probability, but given the rules post, NabakovNabakov said that as soon as someone fulfills their win condition, all other players instantly lose -- that stuck out in my mind, as it is different from most games (which play on until all player's win conditions are achieved or become impossible to achieve). A Jester present would seem to make this game horribly unbalanced against the town, so I can't make that scenario fit either.

What the hell is left?

[Mexal]

Or maybe Sudo_Nym is some kind of special role that helps mafia but does not get to communicate with them at night? Is that possible?

Yes it's possible. It's called a symp or traitor depending on where you play.

Anyway, I don't know what he is. As I said, I'm leaning toward town because I can't see a scum playing this way.

unvote

[Jitsu]

You're making two assumptions here which you would be good to avoid, both in this game and in the future.

I think you are reading what I said the wrong way. I did not assume that join date = experience level. I know that there are other sites and ways to play mafia outside of this one, so join dates are not always reliable. If someone does have a lot of posts on mafia scum and has played in a number of games here, it is not unreasonable to assume they are experienced (and therefore, should probably know better to disclose information that can benefit scum). If someone's join date is recent and they have not made a lot of posts, it is impossible to draw a conclusion, other than they could be a newbie.

Since the join dates of players this game are mostly recent,

we cannot tell

if the players here are experienced or not. Therefore, in this game, it is even worse than normal to say anything that could benefit potential newbie scum in our midst.

I'll say something else. I believe anata to be scum from her recent post about me, but because she was so extremely crafty and careful about her wording, I don't feel that I can make a strong case against her. Thus, I feel that she is either highly experienced (with a lot of experience playing mafia elsewhere) or is highly skilled. And her join date is this month.

2. Townies with power roles generally lay low. This is simply not true. It could be true and sometimes it is, but it's not always true and while you said generally, you're still making the assumption that it's true in this case. Be careful with that.

I didn't really assume it was true in this case either, but I can see how you can get that from my post because my wording wasn't as precise as it should have been. I know power roles are very common in mafiascum games, but I know there are some games that do not even have any. The C9 setup page on the wiki says so (one of the four choices for a C9 newbie game does not have ANY power roles, and that was done to defeat the breaking strategy developed for the newbie games before that). Perhaps I did overestimate a little the probability of a power-role townie to lay low, but to be truthful, in a fair number of games I read, that was the case. I have read more than a few games where it wasn't, so I do not think I would use that logic unconditionally.

I should have said something more like that what he's done has potentially endangered any power roles the town might have. That is the meaning I was going for. I really don't have any clue yet what, if any power roles are in the game, and who they might be. I think it's much more accurate to draw conclusions about that based on night actions.

[Jitsu]

Another matter I want to ask townies about.

If the town does have some kind of cop or investigative role (which I don't know is true or not), is it true that this point that investigating Sudo_Nym tonight might not be the best play? Given that Sudo_Nym's play doesn't seem to fit pro-town or standard mafia, it's feasible that he might have a special role of some sort. If that's the case, whatever result we obtain may not be very reliable.

[Jitsu]

Finishing the thought at the end of post 179:

... even if the cop/investigative role is sane.

[GunslingerKB]

WOW....fast game....My internet connection at my house went down the night that this went active (ugh) and mafiascum is blocked at my school. This sucks. I posted the other morn at a friends house, and right now I am at my Dads office. I am trying to find ways to post whenever possible until my internet is fixed.

Speculation:

Jitsu: Good analyzing

Mexal: I dont think your scummy, just aggressive as you noted.

Jitsu and Mexal seem to be butting heads a little too much as the thinkers to be mafia together.

Korlash: = the jumpy townie(probably)

Sudo: I dunno......kinda fishy IMO.

Mitzef: Seems scummy, but Im not sure he is.

Vote: Jitsu

I felt earlier on that he may have been trying to act like he was analyzing everything to sort out the scum. But I have a vibe telling me that he is acting. Im not 100% sure of this, but he is one of the few people that haven't been considered the slightest bit scummy, and I kinda feel he has.I figure at this point, a random lynch on someone that seems scummy would be a good idea. I dont think voting sudo_nym out at this point would really hurt anything either. (Note: My vote for jitsu isnt really trying to campaign to get him out. I just wanted to state my concern. If nothing else shows up against him, I will probably unvote. )

[oEJo]

@Mexal, I can't help but to agree with you.

Unvote.

Townie points from me.
However, I'm not entirely convinced that Sudo_Nym wasn't being sincere, I just... didn't really think of that possibility. I have a terrible conscience and cannot lie very well, and as such, often assume the best in people. You made a pretty good argument

@Sudo_Nym - You know better for next time.

@Jitsu - I don't understand your reasoning behind the whole "Powerroles tend to sit back more" thing. If I were mafia, I would definitely not pick the person who was casting the most attention on themselves. If worst comes to worst, if the power role is going to get lynched, they can claim. We probably have at least doctor and a cop, but of course we can't assume it. I agree with you on 179.

[Mexal]

I'll say something else. I believe anata to be scum from her recent post about me, but because she was so extremely crafty and careful about her wording, I don't feel that I can make a strong case against her. Thus, I feel that she is either highly experienced (with a lot of experience playing mafia elsewhere) or is highly skilled. And her join date is this month.

I don't agree with this at all. Her post lacked any real insight. It was more a summary of what has happened with a few comments. There was no real conclusions drawn or cases made. She might be scum, but I don't think that post says anything about her level of skill or experience.

I think you are reading what I said the wrong way. I did not assume that join date = experience level.

Uh...reread this.

Look at the join dates of the players in this game. Several have joined in October, and a bunch more in September and August. You seem to be one of the more experienced players, having joined this spring. Almost everyone else has less than 5 months experience. There are many relative newbies in this game and is is not unreasonable to expect that we have newbie scum in our midst. Given, as you say, that you understand that others may not have done as much prereading as you did before your first game, you've all but confirmed my point. It is far from certain that everyone would have known that townies with power roles generally lay low.

That looks like you assuming join date = experience.

Since the join dates of players this game are mostly recent, we cannot tell if the players here are experienced or not. Therefore, in this game, it is even worse than normal to say anything that could benefit potential newbie scum in our midst.

True.

Anyway, please take my responses as constructive criticism. I'm pretty sure you're town so anything I criticize is mostly to help you improve.

[Mexal]

If the town does have some kind of cop or investigative role (which I don't know is true or not), is it true that this point that investigating Sudo_Nym tonight might not be the best play? Given that Sudo_Nym's play doesn't seem to fit pro-town or standard mafia, it's feasible that he might have a special role of some sort. If that's the case, whatever result we obtain may not be very reliable.

Let the cop decide.

Vote: Jitsu I felt earlier on that he may have been trying to act like he was analyzing everything to sort out the scum. But I have a vibe telling me that he is acting. Im not 100% sure of this, but he is one of the few people that haven't been considered the slightest bit scummy, and I kinda feel he has.I figure at this point, a random lynch on someone that seems scummy would be a good idea. I dont think voting sudo_nym out at this point would really hurt anything either. (Note: My vote for jitsu isnt really trying to campaign to get him out. I just wanted to state my concern. If nothing else shows up against him, I will probably unvote. )

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. You vote for him because he's not considered scummy? Not sure I'm following your reasoning here. Why do you think he's scummy? Is it because of your vibe or anything specific he's done? Also, if you're voting for someone who seems scummy, how is that a random lynch?

Finally, when you put down votes, it's meant to lead toward a lynch. To say that you're not campaigning his lynch, yet still voting and that you'd remove your vote if no one agrees with you makes you seem like a sheep who will follow the crowd. Your vote is a good thing, your reasoning behind it and lack of conviction behind it is not. So in other words, the ending of your post is scummy.

@Jitsu - I don't understand your reasoning behind the whole "Powerroles tend to sit back more" thing. If I were mafia, I would definitely not pick the person who was casting the most attention on themselves. If worst comes to worst, if the power role is going to get lynched, they can claim. We probably have at least doctor and a cop, but of course we can't assume it. I agree with you on 179.

I don't get this? It seems like you're validating his statement yet claiming you don't understand it.

@Mexal, I can't help but to agree with you. Unvote. Townie points from me.
However, I'm not entirely convinced that Sudo_Nym wasn't being sincere, I just... didn't really think of that possibility. I have a terrible conscience and cannot lie very well, and as such, often assume the best in people. You made a pretty good argument

It could have been innocent. My point was that to assume it was innocent because he made disclaimers, especially when it's an anti-town idea, would be bad.

[oEJo]

WOW....fast game....My internet connection at my house went down the night that this went active (ugh) and mafiascum is blocked at my school. This sucks. I posted the other morn at a friends house, and right now I am at my Dads office. I am trying to find ways to post whenever possible until my internet is fixed.

Speculation:

Jitsu: Good analyzing

Mexal: I dont think your scummy, just aggressive as you noted.

Jitsu and Mexal seem to be butting heads a little too much as the thinkers to be mafia together.

Korlash: = the jumpy townie(probably)

Sudo: I dunno......kinda fishy IMO.

Mitzef: Seems scummy, but Im not sure he is.

Vote: Jitsu

I felt earlier on that he may have been trying to act like he was analyzing everything to sort out the scum. But I have a vibe telling me that he is acting. Im not 100% sure of this, but he is one of the few people that haven't been considered the slightest bit scummy, and I kinda feel he has.I figure at this point,

a random lynch on someone that seems scummy would be a good idea. I dont think voting sudo_nym out at this point would really hurt anything either.

(Note: My vote for jitsu isnt really trying to campaign to get him out. I just wanted to state my concern. If nothing else shows up against him, I will probably unvote. )

Wow. Tri-simul post. Nice one, guys.

No no no no no no no.
Okay, this post really isn't sitting well with me.

a) The only way that this makes sense is if he has limited time on his hands. How sure are you that Jitsu is scum. Or Sudo_Nym? You have to be PRETTY BLOODY SURE to want to lynch them. At best, their behaviour must be is anti-town. You say that you're not trying to lynch him, but you insinuate that a "random lynch" on Jitsu would be a good idea. That or Sudo. NO.

2) Your analysis is a little bit wonky, in my opinion. It's very.. non-commital. You seem to be only 50% sure on anything you are saying.

d) I'd like you to rate everyone in the game, from most scummy to least. Or least scummy to most. Or give them a number on a scale of e to pi. Whatever works, just give me some numbers.

[oEJo]

@Jitsu - I don't understand your reasoning behind the whole "Powerroles tend to sit back more" thing. If I were mafia, I would definitely not pick the person who was casting the most attention on themselves. If worst comes to worst, if the power role is going to get lynched, they can claim. We probably have at least doctor and a cop, but of course we can't assume it. I agree with you on 179.

I don't get this? It seems like you're validating his statement yet claiming you don't understand it.

I understand his idea. It was that "power roles tend to not be aggressive." I should have been more clear - when I said that I didn't understand his reasoning, I meant that I didn't agree with it. Mafia often NK a lurker because a shining light will attract more moths. I made that metaphor up on the spot. Also, mafia will rarely kill someone who is directly attacking them, as it will cast too much suspicion on themselves. This allows the power role to survive longer. Which is good.

quote]

[oEJo]

Oh, bah. Accidentally deleted part of the tag, you get the idea.

[Jitsu]

I don't agree with this at all. Her post lacked any real insight. It was more a summary of what has happened with a few comments. There was no real conclusions drawn or cases made. She might be scum, but I don't think that post says anything about her level of skill or experience.

Good point. I will reread it again.

Anyway, please take my responses as constructive criticism. I'm pretty sure you're town so anything I criticize is mostly to help you improve.

Don't worry, I am. I was just trying to clarify to Mexal what I meant.

@GunslingerKB:
I am really not butting heads with Mexal at all. If you reread the posts he's made and the responses I've given, I've actually been following his advice, because I think he's right about me. I believe him more than a lot of other people right now, and he honestly seems to be helping me improve as a player. I can see how you think I might be acting though, so I don't blame you for the vote on me.

[Mexal]

I understand his idea. It was that "power roles tend to not be aggressive." I should have been more clear - when I said that I didn't understand his reasoning, I meant that I didn't agree with it. Mafia often NK a lurker because a shining light will attract more moths. I made that metaphor up on the spot. Also, mafia will rarely kill someone who is directly attacking them, as it will cast too much suspicion on themselves. This allows the power role to survive longer. Which is good.

We're getting into dangerous territory now. I disagree with this entire paragraph. Anything involving the discussion of night kills will lead to WIFOM. Lets try to avoid that please.

[Jitsu]

I searched for the Traitor role in the Wiki. It says:

Traitor is the most common role on the Mafia side that isn't actually in the Mafia family. There are several variations of this role.

Most commonly the Traitor knows who is in the Mafia, but the Mafia do not know who the Traitor is. The Traitor works, through his or her Vote, to keep the Mafia from getting Lynched.

Another variation is the Mafia Spy (a.k.a. Devil). This version does not know who is in the Mafia, but can investigate once each Night to look for Cops or perhaps other power roles, that he then can try to expose during the day.

In a third variation, sometimes used in conjunction with one of the others, the Mafia can choose at any time in the game to recruit their Traitor. Before this time, the Traitor appears innocent to Cops, and/or has investigative abilities. Once recruited, the Traitor becomes a normal Mafia member.

I'm not saying that Sudo_Nym is a traitor, but this is a possibility we shouldn't ignore. There is at least a small chance that Sudo_Nym could be trying to breadcrumb his role to the mafia somehow, regardless of what he actually is. The wiki text also seems to reinforce the idea that an investigation on Sudo_Nym could mislead us, even if the supposed cop were sane.

[oEJo]

Good point. Disaster averted.

[GunslingerKB]

I think Jitsu sees what I mean, but other than that, what I feel is hard to put down. What seems like acting from him may be him really analyzing things. And yea. I probably shouldnt have voted anyway.

Unvote: Jitsu

now that I have thourougjly read a few more posts, I think sudo_nym is really the way we should go first day. He seems a little wonky.

Vote: Sudo

And that post by me was really stupidly dumb. I just went back and read it and pretty much laughed at my own stupidity. It was too early for me... *yawn*

[oEJo]

Gunslinger, did you even read what I said?

[Mexal]

I'm not saying that Sudo_Nym is a traitor, but this is a possibility we shouldn't ignore. There is at least a small chance that Sudo_Nym could be trying to breadcrumb his role to the mafia somehow, regardless of what he actually is. The wiki text also seems to reinforce the idea that an investigation on Sudo_Nym could mislead us, even if the supposed cop were sane.

Traitors generally come up town if investigated.

Sudo might be a traitor but he's done a poor job thus far. The point of a traitor is to help the mafia avoid being lynched, not get lynched themselves for anti-town comments.

[GunslingerKB]

Oh...yea sorry....

Scummyness List: (Excluding Me of course)
1.Sudo
2. Anata
3. Mitzef
4. Korlash
5.Jerubaal
6.oEJo
7.CKD
8. Jitsu
9.Abstract
10.Jayalay
11.Mexal

[GunslingerKB]

Oh yeah, Ill be back later today. Im going to go buy a 360 right now.

[Mexal]

1.Sudo
2. Anata
3. Mitzef
4. Korlash
5.Jerubaal
6.oEJo
7.CKD
8. Jitsu
9.Abstract
10.Jayalay
11.Mexal

Why? Just a few posts ago, you had scummy vibes from Jitsu. Now you find 7 other people scummier?

Also, what has Abstract and Jayalay done to look town in your opinion?

Finally, why do you find Anata scummy?

[oEJo]

Would you care to provide some insight for those positions? Even just the top 2-3 and the bottom 2-3 are fine.

Also, Jitsu is number 8, but just a few posts ago you wanted to lynch him. What made you change your mind so suddenly?

By the way: I'm assuming it's most to least, as currently your vote is on Sudo.

Have fun with your 360! By the way, thanks for posting some content. I wasn't chastising you for not posting, earlier. I was just stating the reason why I didn't have an analysis on you. Glad you went out of your way to check in.

[oEJo]

Would you care to provide some insight for those positions? Even just the top 2-3 and the bottom 2-3 are fine.

Also, Jitsu is number 8, but just a few posts ago you wanted to lynch him. What made you change your mind so suddenly?

By the way: I'm assuming it's most to least, as currently your vote is on Sudo.

Have fun with your 360! By the way, thanks for posting some content. I wasn't chastising you for not posting, earlier. I was just stating the reason why I didn't have an analysis on you. Glad you went out of your way to check in.

You'd think I'd learn by now to quote the post I'm referring to. I keep getting ninja'd.
This was in reference to post 195-196.