Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *GAME OVER*

[Setael]

I don't disagree that at least one of either the doc or cop is lying. Maybe even both. The questions I don't have accurate answers to are: What motivation would scum have to kill one of the masons over the doc? and.... Why would nano investigate Simenon? The reasons given for both are crap in my opinion.

However, rather than lynch either of them I think we should take one more night to get the cop's investigation and see if the doc is NK'd. We then lynch nano to either confirm the person he investigated or find out he's lying. If he does not investigate one of the three unclaimed, we lynch him.

I think the most likely scenario is that Yagami is scum along with nano. Yagami was scum in a game I was in that recently ended and he did this same thing - disappear after a half hearted effort to not get lynched. If he was Town, I would like to hope he would be trying harder to scum hunt.

I still say we lynch Yagami and then depending on his alignment, or maybe regardless, lynch one of the claimed roles tomorrow.

I reiterate that I think FLoC should protect either TCS or me. At least keep 'em guessing. We are going to lynch nano tomorrow anyway so the mafia will save us the trouble if they do it for us.

[Bookitty]

I don't disagree that at least one of either the doc or cop is lying. Maybe even both. The questions I don't have accurate answers to are: What motivation would scum have to kill one of the masons over the doc? and.... Why would nano investigate Simenon? The reasons given for both are crap in my opinion.

On the first one... if FLoC is in fact the Doc, and Nano is scum, then scum would have a very strong motivation to keep FLoC alive. As soon as FLoC dies, and is proven to be the doctor, then Nano's continued existence is proof he's not the cop. I don't believe for a second that the Mafia would leave the cop alive.

On the second one? Nano said

Think about it: If we have a claimed mason pair, and one of them turns up as town by investigation, then we pretty much have two confirmed townies. Good, yes?

Except I've never liked his logic here. I think of the cop as in the job of finding scum, not confirming town. And two scum arranging to pose as Masons seems awfully risky, since if one falls, both fall. It's not a play I would make in their place, so I don't understand why Nanosauromo would have thought it likely. Absolute confirmation in such a case wasn't particularly useful for town.

All in all, I don't believe Nano. But I still think lynching one of the unclaimed may gain us more information.

In case it may be helpful, I'll post my thinking on scumpairs. I've put these in order of probability (Note, this is my opinion only, and should not be taken as fact):

• Nano-Yagami is highly possible.
  Nano-FLoC is very possible as well.
  FLoC-Yagami is possible.
  Nano-Samruc is possible.
  Samruc-Yagami is possible.
  FLoC-Samruc is unlikely.

Still thinking. Vote likely to follow later.

[Samruc]

Let me analyze Setael's plan:

D3: We lynch an unclaimed. Remains: {2 confirmed, 2 claimed, 2 unclaimed}.
- If the lynched one is scum, we should have pretty much won the game.
- If not:

N3: FLoC protects a confirmed, Nano investigates an unclaimed.
- Who will the mafia kill? Let's just suppose they manage to kill a confirmed. (Which is probably WCS.)
=> Remains: {1 confirmed, 2 claimed, 1 unclaimed, 1 investigated}

D4 (LyLo):
- If the investigation shows guilty, we will have to choose between Nano and the investigated. Not a fun choice to make at LyLo, though if it comes down to Nano vs Bookitty, (or Nano vs me), I would surely dismiss the investigation and vote Nano.
- If investigation shows innocent, Setael's plan is to lynch Nano anyway. Here is the important thing: If Nano turns up town, his investigation won't help us,

since we just lost by lynching him.

And if Nano turns up scum, his investigation is worthless anyway...

Sure, this is the worst case in Setael's plan, but I don't think it's too unlikely to wind up in this position.

***

So what would happen if we lynch (is anyone surprised that I try this...) FLoC?

D3: Lynch FLoC. Remains: {2 confirmed, 1 claimed, 3 unclaimed}
- If FLoC is scum, we should have great chances here too.
- If not:

N3: Scum kills Nano? Possible, but that requires that both FLoC and Nano were telling the truth, which I think is very unlikely. So let's say scum kill a confirmed.
Remains: {1 confirmed, 1 claimed, 3 unclaimed}

D4: We lynch Nano. Both of them *can't* be telling the truth => We find a scum.

N4: Scum kills the second confirmed.
Remains: {3 unconfirmed}

D5: Endgame with three unconfirmed = We are back to the question: Lynching Samruc, Boo or Yagami.

The difference is, and I think it's a big positive: We wait with the difficult choice

as long as possible

, and hopefully we won't have to make it at all, because we already found out FLoC and Nano were scum.

***
As you can see, my plan depends on the assumption that at least one of FLoC and Nano is lying. If you are ready to make that assumption, I think my plan is the optimal play.

(I just realised that my plan is almost equivalent to lynching Nano first and then FLoC. It all comes down to who you think is the most probable scum of the two of them)

[Nanosauromo]

But what happens if

we're both innocent?

Give me one more chance. Lynch an unclaimed today, I'll do another investigation tonight. If the investigatee turns up scum, we lynch him.

[Samruc]

But what happens if

you're both guilty?

That's right - your plan wins the game for scum.

[YagamiLight]

Actually, Samruc's plan makes sense. I think enough of us believe either FLoC or Nano are lying. But something not mentioned Samruc, D4 is going to have more or less the same problem regardless of the plan chosen. The only difference is that in your's, he may give a guilty or innocent result on me instead of you or Boo. The thing is, I feel only one of them has fake-claimed, not both, and that we have one scum in the unclaimed as well.

[Setael]

@Yagami: so if you think there's one scum in the unclaimed it has to be you, boo or samruc. You've said you're pretty sure boo is town. you're willing to follow samruc's plan which seems to mean you're assuming he's town. That sort of leaves you as the scum, doesn't it?

If you aren't scum, do you think it's samruc or boo? If you think it's samruc... why are you wanting to go along with his plan?

[Nocmen]

Votes:
YagamiLight - 2(Setael, Nanosauromo)
Faeren Lord of Carlisle - 1 (Samruc)

Not Voting - 4(Faeren Lord of Carlisle, YagamiLight, The Central Scrutinizer, Bookitty)

7 alive, 4 to lynch!

Deadline:

5pm EDT November 1st, roughly 74 hours 10 minutes from this psot

.

[YagamiLight]

@Yagami: so if you think there's one scum in the unclaimed it has to be you, boo or samruc. You've said you're pretty sure boo is town. you're willing to follow samruc's plan which seems to mean you're assuming he's town. That sort of leaves you as the scum, doesn't it?

If you aren't scum, do you think it's samruc or boo? If you think it's samruc... why are you wanting to go along with his plan?

His plan is too go for FLoC then Nano, sounds as though he believes both of them are lying (at least that's how I read it, so Samruc correct me if I'm wrong). I say only lynch one of them to get scum, then one of me or samruc or boo is scum. In which case I would say the most likely is samruc. In the end the plans are different, in that I want think only one scum is there, and want to try and lynch them and let the other power role live, he wants to lynch both thinking they are both lying. And in the end, scum and town are going to offer plans that look pro-town, you just have to determine which are which, and I think this actually is a good plan if we only lynch one, because I think there is only one scum there.

[Samruc]

Well, if I believed both of them were lying, I wouldn't need to do any analysis My plan rests on the assumption that *at least* one of the claimed is lying, which I find highly likely.

I urge everyone that believe in this to vote for one of the claimed; alternatively, show me if there exists a better plan.

[Bookitty]

Okay. I've gone over this and over this, looking at it from every angle I could. This is only my analysis, and please pick apart any logical errors I have made. (And I'm not considering myself as scum, but I am sure everyone is aware that I am unconfirmed.)

I think we have to lynch one of the unclaimed. It is possible that FLoC is being left alive (and a confirmed Mason killed) because FLoC has been under heavy suspicion from the start, way back to when hand banana originated the role. The scum may have felt they could push FLoC's lynch convincingly. (Yes, I'm looking at you, Samruc.)

If I assume that both roleclaims are true, something that is possible (regardless of my personal opinions), then the remaining scum must be Samruc and YagamiLight. So in that case, lynching either one hits scum. We go into tomorrow in excellent shape, with Nano's accurate investigation to guide us.

If I assume that FLoC is telling the truth, and Nano is scum, then either Samruc or YagamiLight is scum. Samruc could be Nano's partner, and so could Yagami. I gain no extra knowledge there. If we lynch either of them, then Nano must investigate one of the other two. If he investigates one and finds them innocent, that one is his partner. If he finds them guilty, then the other one is his partner. (Note that my saying this could in fact skew this result, but I think we have enough evidence to determine who is more believable at this point anyway.)

If I assume that FLoC is scum, and Nano is telling the truth, then only Yagami can be scum with FLoC. Samruc's attacks on FLoC were too sustained and date from the earliest stages of the game, back to hand banana. I see no possibility that FLoC and Samruc are scumbuddies. So if Nano does his investigation on one of the two remaining, assuming that the lynched one was town, then he has a fifty-fifty shot of hitting scum. If he declares one innocent, in this scenario, the other one is scum.

If I assume that both are lying, then logically, if we lynch one of the unclaimed, Nanosauromo will investigate one of the other two. He must find one of them guilty, because if he does not, then it is evident to the other that either FLoC or himself must be scum. An innocent on me means (Samruc/Yagami, whichever one is left) is guilty with a partner in FLoC or Nano, or BOTH FLoC and Nano are. The same is true whichever one he clears. Therefore, I think he will make a false guilty claim against one of us (again, my saying this may skew this result) in this case. And then we're back to relying on evidence, but with a smaller field of suspects. This is worst case scenario, of course. I'm not convinced scum would take a chance like both false-claiming. Seems too risky.

Finally, WIFOM, but I don't see scum tunneling on one player like Samruc did on FLoC. It's too obvious, and too likely to attract unwanted attention. Additionally, Samruc could only be scumbuddies with Nano or Yagami, while Yagami could possibly be scumbuddies with any of the remaining three.

So my vote goes to YagamiLight.

unvote; vote YagamiLight

[Faeren Lord of Carlisle]

should I drop the hammer?

[Bookitty]

I have no objection, but you might wait to see if anyone violently disagrees with my post first. It's my logic, so obviously I agree with it, but there's no harm in waiting. We have another day in which to discuss.

I guess the short answer is, it's up to you.

[Setael]

Mod: Can we get a prod on TCS?

I would like his input before anyone hammers.

[Nocmen]

Mod: Can we get a prod on TCS?

I would like his input before anyone hammers.

Wow, I need to focus more on this. I actually prodded him last thursday, and forgot about it until now. He has not even read the prod PM. He is being replaced now, deadline will be moved back a few days until the replacement is found.

[Nocmen]

Still looking for a replacment for TCS. Also, just because I'm looking for a replacemeny doesnt mean you need to be all silenty.

Votes:
YagamiLight - 3(Setael, Nanosauromo, Bookitty)
Faeren Lord of Carlisle - 1 (Samruc)

Not Voting - 3(Faeren Lord of Carlisle, YagamiLight, The Central Scrutinizer )

7 alive, 4 to lynch!

[Bookitty]

I'm not silent! I'm just not saying anything. It's not at all the same thing.

In seriousness, I'm convinced of my own logical arguments (I wouldn't make them otherwise) and unless someone wants to tear them apart and change my mind, I don't really have anything to say until we get a replacement or night falls.

It's not silence. I've just posted all the content I have for now, and I'm waiting.

[Setael]

Wow. That was quite the unnecessary overdefensiveness with the insistence that you're not being silent...

[Bookitty]

Also, just because I'm looking for a replacemeny doesnt mean you need to be all silenty.

Hmmm, I didn't feel defensive. I just don't have anything further to say, and I was explaining my silence to Nocmen, who apparently felt we were all too quiet based on his above post. It was a response, not a defense, and not a very serious response, at that.

Do you have any criticism to make of my arguments, Setael (or anyone), while we wait for a replacement for TCS?

[Setael]

Reading your post again, I can see you were not being serious. (Or at least there's a good chance of it - too overdefensive to be defensive or something).

I don't have any criticism to make of your arguments or I'd have made it already. As I've said, I think your posts have all been really logical and pro-town and I'd be floored if you came up scum.

It'll be nice to get insight from whoever replaces TCS, since he is confirmed Town and we'll know he's not trying to deceive us. TCS really hasn't contributed much, so I'm excited he's getting replaced.

[Samruc]

I don't have any criticism to make of your arguments or I'd have made it already.

I would suppose this to apply to my arguments as well, though they clearly disagree with Bookitty's, so...

I made a try in an earlier post to show why it would be a good idea to lynch one of the claiming players, if you think that at least one of them is lying, but no one really commented on it.

In fact this applies

to everyone who thinks at least one of the claims are a lie:

Do you or do you not agree with my theory that lynching the claimed ones is the best strategy?

[Bookitty]

I don't agree that we should lynch one of the claimed players. I think probably one of them is lying. But I don't think both of them are. They both MAY be, but I don't believe they both are.

If we lynch FLoC, as you propose, and he is scum, that's great, but we have no further leads on his scumbuddy. Additionally, the remaining scum may kill Nanosauromo because the sole reason they were leaving him alive is to maintain FLoC's cover as the doc, and that won't be necessary anymore. If FLoC is town, then we're looking at no real clues as to the identity of the scum.

If we lynch Nanosauromo, as I think would be reasonable, and he is scum, that's great, but we have no further leads on his scumbuddy. Additionally, the remaining scum may kill FLoC because the sole reason they were leaving him alive was to explain Nano's continued existence, so we lose that protection as well. If Nano is town, and we lynched him, we just lynched our best source of information, and we don't have any better clues to the identity of the scum.

So no, I don't agree with your theory, Samruc. I think we learn much more by lynching one of the unclaimed (yes, even me). And the risks of being wrong are much lessened by doing so, in my opinion.

[Setael]

Samruc, I think I've made it clear that of the 2 claims I think nano is more likely the one lying so you and I don't exactly see eye to eye on that. I have also made it clear that I think anyone who believes one of the claims is lying and one of the unclaimed is lying should first target their unclaimed suspect, just in case they're wrong about the claimed suspect.

[Nocmen]

Still looking for a replacement.

[Nocmen]

I really don't want to drop another deadline with someone needing to be replaced, but I might have to.