Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Mexal]

God, I hate replacements. Everything we just went through has been destroyed by that. So we need replacements for jayalay and Anata now. Wonderful.

[Korlash]

Yeah tell me about it...

[jerubbaal]

Those questions weren't rhetorical? There was something like 20 or 30 questions in just the first three paragraphs or so. That seems absolutely crazy. If they're real questions that you expect answers to, that seems kinda insane. Go back and count those.

I certainly sympathize with the frustration about incompetence, but over the internet, I suppose that's going to be unavoidable in most games. It does seem like about half of the people here just don't get the game. And I'm not criticizing you about pressuring incompetent moves. I voted for Anata as well. I'm criticizing you for assuming that the only possible reason for stupid moves is scum.

In my first newbie game (my only completed game so far), a dumb noob that lurked for the first week or so of the game shows up, posts a bunch of really scummy crap, and just clearly does not get the game at all. So we up and lynch him pretty quick (scum actually hammers, but nobody seems to blame him or suspect him for it), and he turns out to be townie. Just really, really stupid townie. Part of me wonders whether it's not more difficult to tell a stupid mafia from a stupid townie or a good mafia from a good townie. There has to be some sort of standard to go by.

It just seems somewhat opportunistic to me to attack the dumb ones all the time, as even if they were entirely well-intentioned townies, they couldn't give any real reason anyone else should believe that. If we just say kill the stupid ones, that's half the group, and I see little to discern between, say, Gunslinger's stupidity and Anata's stupidity (I guess the situation has changed now that she is gone, but the point is still valid).

I think it bothers me a lot that you basically called ckd scum because he suggested that laziness might be a better explanation for ineptitude than scum. I don't think that laziness is necessarily a better explanation, but I think it at least needs to be acknowledged as a possible explanation.

The thing which bothered me most was you posting what you thought Jitsu "meant" instead of what he said. Even though Jitsu said that it could easily just be laziness, you basically said, well, he doesn't really mean that, he's just not confident enough yet. If you're agreeing with someone's argument, you can't really say that oh, I agree with the argument that he really meant, not the argument he presented. A lot of people pushed you to clarify your agreement (for largely stupid reasons, I think), but you never qualified anything. If you didn't think that laziness was a reasonable explanation, as Jitsu suggested in the argument, you might have qualified that.

Myself and others might be quicker to presume the innocence of a certain gesture, but that's not always entirely a bad thing. You have expressed very sincere doubts about a great host of players, and they simply cannot all be valid. At the very least, you have advanced arguments against Sudo, Anata, Miztef, Gunslinger, and ckd, none of which appear to have been answered to your satisfaction. It is very simply not possible that all of them are scum (or this is one f***ed up scenario), so you must be jumping at shadows somewhere. The ckd scenario confuses me the most, as, unless I misunderstand you, you seem pretty confident that ckd is scum because he defended your attack against Anata. I think his analysis is decent, if somewhat optimistic regarding Anata's motives for certain actions. I certainly did not think that it led to the level of certainty you seemed to express in affirming his guilt. If we find out that Anata (or whoever is replacing her) is guilty, then it seems to add much more credibility to your case, but for now it feels like building a house of cards. Your whole case hinges on Anata's guilt, which is still an unknown, at least for the time being.

To everyone else, this day

is

really starting to piss me off. All the chaff has stopped posting, and the few of us who are still here are simply butting heads. Please post something semi-useful and prove to us that you're not all idiots. I am beginning to see more of Mexal's first post to me, saying that there is a point when dialogue begins to hurt the town instead of help. It's getting to the point where some sort of decisive action is important, as the arguments are all starting to fold in on each other. Until some of you guys actually post something different, I feel like we're just beating a bunch of dead horses.

On a side note - do you find that it's usually scum under fire who replace out or bored townies, or is it really a neutral thing and shouldn't impact our decision much? I could easily see it going either way, a townie frustrated with being accused of being scummy all the time or a scum convinced that they're going to lose anyway. Just curious what experience seems to say in this matter.

[Mexal]

Those questions weren't rhetorical? There was something like 20 or 30 questions in just the first three paragraphs or so. That seems absolutely crazy. If they're real questions that you expect answers to, that seems kinda insane. Go back and count those.

So? I asked a lot of questions. He wanted follow up questions, he got them.

I certainly sympathize with the frustration about incompetence, but over the internet, I suppose that's going to be unavoidable in most games. It does seem like about half of the people here just don't get the game. And I'm not criticizing you about pressuring incompetent moves. I voted for Anata as well. I'm criticizing you for assuming that the only possible reason for stupid moves is scum.

Until Anata tells me it was just laziness or an inability to read, I can assume that it was scummy. To assume it was laziness with absolutely nothing to back that up is not very smart.

In my first newbie game (my only completed game so far), a dumb noob that lurked for the first week or so of the game shows up, posts a bunch of really scummy crap, and just clearly does not get the game at all. So we up and lynch him pretty quick (scum actually hammers, but nobody seems to blame him or suspect him for it), and he turns out to be townie. Just really, really stupid townie. Part of me wonders whether it's not more difficult to tell a stupid mafia from a stupid townie or a good mafia from a good townie. There has to be some sort of standard to go by.

It's day 1. There is no standard. 90% of the time you'll lynch a town player on day 1. You can still win the game though.

It just seems somewhat opportunistic to me to attack the dumb ones all the time, as even if they were entirely well-intentioned townies, they couldn't give any real reason anyone else should believe that. If we just say kill the stupid ones, that's half the group, and I see little to discern between, say, Gunslinger's stupidity and Anata's stupidity (I guess the situation has changed now that she is gone, but the point is still valid).

Not really. Get rid of the dumb ones then you can focus on the smart ones by connecting them to the dumb ones. It's day 1, you only have information from the people that talk. You won't have any kind of voting record til day 2/3 nor will you have any kind of ability to truly connect people.

I think it bothers me a lot that you basically called ckd scum because he suggested that laziness might be a better explanation for ineptitude than scum. I don't think that laziness is necessarily a better explanation, but I think it at least needs to be acknowledged as a possible explanation.

I questioned his motives. He's yet to come under pressure so I questioned him. What's the problem? He attributed the entire post to laziness and saw absolutely nothing wrong with it. Then he went into HUGE defensive mode over her while basically criticizing Gunslinger for the same thing. I caught Zindaras (who's a very good player) doing the same thing. He defended a town player and it got me onto him becuase there was absolutely no reason to go to the level of defending that he did, nor push a suspicion that wasn't valid. CKD ignored the arguments against Anata while focusing on the 3 votes on her. That was my point. It doesn't mean he's scum, it means he should be watched and if Anata turned up scum, then he's a fairly good person to look at.

The thing which bothered me most was you posting what you thought Jitsu "meant" instead of what he said. Even though Jitsu said that it could easily just be laziness, you basically said, well, he doesn't really mean that, he's just not confident enough yet. If you're agreeing with someone's argument, you can't really say that oh, I agree with the argument that he really meant, not the argument he presented. A lot of people pushed you to clarify your agreement (for largely stupid reasons, I think), but you never qualified anything. If you didn't think that laziness was a reasonable explanation, as Jitsu suggested in the argument, you might have qualified that.

You've done it to me, several times. It's mafia on a forum. We interpret what people say the way we want to interpret it. Sorry Jitsu if you actually thought she was being completely lazy.

Myself and others might be quicker to presume the innocence of a certain gesture, but that's not always entirely a bad thing. You have expressed very sincere doubts about a great host of players, and they simply cannot all be valid. At the very least, you have advanced arguments against Sudo, Anata, Miztef, Gunslinger, and ckd, none of which appear to have been answered to your satisfaction. It is very simply not possible that all of them are scum (or this is one f***ed up scenario), so you must be jumping at shadows somewhere. The ckd scenario confuses me the most, as, unless I misunderstand you, you seem pretty confident that ckd is scum because he defended your attack against Anata. I think his analysis is decent, if somewhat optimistic regarding Anata's motives for certain actions. I certainly did not think that it led to the level of certainty you seemed to express in affirming his guilt. If we find out that Anata (or whoever is replacing her) is guilty, then it seems to add much more credibility to your case, but for now it feels like building a house of cards. Your whole case hinges on Anata's guilt, which is still an unknown, at least for the time being.

What's your point? So I express suspicion on a lot of people. I fail to see the problem in this. How else do you find out scum? Do you want me to focus on just one or two people and push them the whole time? Or would you rather I pressure everyone who does something scummy imo to get as much information as possible for later in the game? You decide.

To everyone else, this day

is

really starting to piss me off. All the chaff has stopped posting, and the few of us who are still here are simply butting heads. Please post something semi-useful and prove to us that you're not all idiots. I am beginning to see more of Mexal's first post to me, saying that there is a point when dialogue begins to hurt the town instead of help. It's getting to the point where some sort of decisive action is important, as the arguments are all starting to fold in on each other. Until some of you guys actually post something different, I feel like we're just beating a bunch of dead horses.

This is just the start. We're on mafiascum and it's why I hate this place. I have one other game I'm in and the day 3 has lasted over a month and the person who will get lynched was the same person who we wanted to lynch the first few days of day 3. People are afraid to lynch on this site for god knows what reason. They don't understand that there is a wealth of information even if you're wrong and if you keep discussing the same crap over and over, you'll just go in circles.

On a side note - do you find that it's usually scum under fire who replace out or bored townies, or is it really a neutral thing and shouldn't impact our decision much? I could easily see it going either way, a townie frustrated with being accused of being scummy all the time or a scum convinced that they're going to lose anyway. Just curious what experience seems to say in this matter.

I've seen both. There are games where a person has replaced under pressure but they're yet to die so I don't know what their alignment is.

[Miztef]

I think Mexal is right in the sense that lynches do have to happen. There is no need to let days drag on for extra weeks if the biggest lynch candidates have already been picked and all the arguements against them have been said. (not sure in this case, but for a while now no new cases have been presented, at least not seriously).

I will post more on this later, have class now.

[jerubbaal]

I have never really had a problem with you pushing people, whatever your argument. I'm just a little confused who you actually think is scum, and who you think is the correct lynch for today. I would like to hear from our replacements and scarce posters first, but I think it's time to start focusing in.

I'm quite happy in that department with my vote on Miztef, because I find that his entire pattern of action has been very scummy. Comes out hard, gets heat, backs off very quickly, lays low for a while, and finally, when the heat seems to have faded, pokes back in and places a quick opportunistic vote. He's done essentially nothing to contribute to the conversation, yet he has apparently been present for the whole thing.

The other big scummies at the moment are Anata and Gunslinger. I'd be willing to join an Anata lynch mob, depending on how her replacement deals with the situation, primarily because, if Anata turns up scum, Mexal's case against ckd becomes much stronger. Two for the price of one. The case against Anata is reasonably strong and she did nothing to answer it in her last post.

Gunslinger showed up, made a bunch of bad scummy posts, and we haven't heard from him for quite a while. With as little information as we have on him, it seems difficult to discern if he just posted badly or is actually scummy. I don't like him, but I'm willing to wait until I hear a bit more.

Korlash, you've been whining about your need for a read-through for a couple days. Just shut up and do it. I don't need to be pissed off at people who are here and lurking in plain sight.

[Mexal]

I think everyone is scum

As for the lynch for the day, I wanted Anata. Now that she's being replaced, I doubt any of you would agree to that. So I don't know. Probably Miztef though I'd have to do a reread of him before I decide on that.

[Jitsu]

Everyone, I have a really gigantic post coming, but I am still reading over it to check it for inconsistencies. I'll have it up in a bit.

[Mexal]

Everyone, I have a really gigantic post coming, but I am still reading over it to check it for inconsistencies. I'll have it up in a bit.

Unnecessary to tell us you're proofreading you post to make sure it's perfect. Just so you know.

[curiouskarmadog]

I too have a fairly large post coming...getting behind on several games...but dont have time currently for more than a line or two.

[Miztef]

vote to kill god

[Miztef]

please disregard last post, my roommate posted that.

[jerubbaal]

Whoever replaces Anata is still the same role, so, in some way, he/she is still very responsible for the misplays of Anata. I'm not willing to scratch her off the list just yet.

And yes, I don't give a damn about the windup, just post so we can read it.

Everyone, I have a really gigantic post coming, but I am still reading over it to check it for inconsistencies. I'll have it up in a bit.

So we have permission to nail you to the wall if we find inconsistencies?

[Mexal]

Whoever replaces Anata is still the same role, so, in some way, he/she is still very responsible for the misplays of Anata. I'm not willing to scratch her off the list just yet.

Of course. I agree. Unfortunately, the new person who comes in will still have a clean slate. I've seen it countless times. Mainly because they can't answer for what Anata did. So either we lynch Anata now or we consider the person coming in anew. And I have to say...I absolutely hate that. I think it ruins games more than it helps it but that's MS policy. You can be on day 3 of the game (like I am in a different game) and have someone replace in. I HATE it.

[Jitsu]

I don't think it's useful for me to comment on every point that has been made because the landscape has changed so drastically. But I'll try to generally cover most of the important points since my last substantive post. Sorry in advance for the length of this post. I wanted to try to be complete and make it the highest quality I can.


Post #292 and the Korlash/Mexal exchange:

I agree with Sudo's comments here (bet no one expected that, did they?). It was okay for Korlash to ask Mexal for a reason, though I had picked up on the fact that Mexal was unusually quiet about his reason, when he usually explains his logic so well. I figured Mexal might have been up to something, but I didn't know what he was fishing for. The post I made saying that it is best to consider all factors behind a vote was true, and I believe it wholeheartedly, but it was also a subtle breadcrumb to try to tell people to think a bit more about what he was doing. I also thought people were focusing too much on his lack of reason and missing the bigger picture. I wanted Mexal to try to get whatever thing he was fishing for. Apparently, that was to see who was going to defend Anata. I believe this, because I was looking for the same information. I don't fault Korlash for calling Mexal on his apparent lack of reason, as asking for vote reasons is good pro-town play, even for early votes on a wagon. The gigantic firestorm that erupted out of it, and CKD's reaction did seem like a bit much over just a second vote, IMHO. Mexal is a clever player and has not really done anything this game without a good reason.


Post #293 and Korlash in general:

I think he was in defensive mode for most of the first part of the game (admittedly after I helped push him into it), and his admitted inability to explain things well caused people to misunderstand him further and snowball into something bigger. His most recent posts have shown better town play. They have been tighter and more direct. I liked the patience he showed on waiting for Anata's defense. I think he is considering arguments better, and he has asked some better questions lately. I think he still fixates on the wrong thing sometimes, and his aggressive tone can sometimes rub people the wrong way, but I think he is at least trying at the moment. For now, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.


Post #296-297, 310-311, and GunslingerKB in general:

I still think Gunslinger is suspicious also, and he is near the top of my scummy list. I too am bothered by his inconsistent play and lurking. His logic was awful (random lynching is never good), and how he voted me, then later had me low on his list is not good play (even though he did unvote me). He's posted no real substance on anyone in my opinion, but he's hardly the only one to do this. On the other hand, his vote on me saying I was acting was a theory not beyond the realm of possibility. Given how much I'm saying I want to help the town, the two logical possibilities are that I am really an eager townie trying hard to scumhunt in my first game, or I'm acting real hard like an eager townie trying to scumhunt. So even though his justification was horrific, his theory was actually plausible. I did miss part of his post on my first read, but I never reacted to this because I knew it was a weak reason at best. And he did take his vote off of me when people called him on it. I would like to hear him defend some of his statements better. I still think he is scummy and I would support a lynch for him (at least at some point), but I really don't think he is the play for today, because I don't really know what I learn from knowing his alignment. He has not really tied himself to anyone else in a significant way, though Anata may have defended him in #241.


About Miztef:

His earlier drastic turnaround after putting a fourth vote on Korlash and then five posts later saying he wants to slow the pace down and stop pushing the wagons so hard is highly suspicious to me. It is like he wanted to push the Korlash wagon and then claim he was trying to slow down the game as a defense if it succeeded. Plus, his half-hearted defense early in the game where he claimed he was a bad town player just doesn't sit well with me. He's also done no real scum hunting in the entire game other then just posting what he thinks (though, to be fair, neither have a number of others). I disagree with him in #316 where he says that suspecting 5 people at this point is "quite large" [of a list]. Given all of the newbie-ish behavior and lurking this game, I suspect a lot of people too. On Day 1, it is hard to get a really good read on a lot of people, so I think it makes sense to have either a really large list (e.g. "everyone has done some scummy things at some point") or a really small one (e.g. "since everyone is doing scummy things, I can't figure out who the scum are"). The other slightly weird thing about #316 is the timing of his vote on CKD. I assume that it is in response to post #314 where CKD says that he thinks Miztef is the lynch today. But I think Miztef's comments were a bit premature. The attention was still on Anata at that point, and I would have expected Miztef to sit silently and wait a little bit to see if people agreed with CKD first before jumping to head people off -- he was a bit jumpy to defend himself here, I think. Also, Anata has stated suspicions of him the entire game, even before post 153. He never responded to any of Anata's comments until he jumped on CKD for possibly supporting her. Why didn't Miztef attack her previously? He had several chances to do so -- maybe there was some bussing going on there or something, I don't know. For most of the game, his comments have looked to me like an attempt to blend in and weigh in on the current topic without saying very much, though he has started to take stands on various people now because he fears a lynch, I think.


About CKD:

I understand his suspicions around Mexal's vote on Anata. It certainly looked that way. He really rode Mexal hard on it and said he had a reason for doing so, but he never seemed to say what that was. I am curious about that. I think his suspicions on Miztef are valid. I'm not as convinced as Mexal was that he was actively defending Anata, but I still think it is quite possible. I too wonder why CKD is so sure that she is innocent, and he does not even seem to seriously consider the possibility that she is scum (newbie or not) instead. The *obvious* read on Anata from her posts was that her reads were sloppy and she messed up. The question is, was that genuine, or just a facade to hide behind?

In post 314, his comments on Sudo are fair. I can't agree with his assertion that Mexal is not reading this game, though. Far from it. This post was the first that CKD laid out his arguments that Anata was not scum, but a lazy townie. I agree with that a good number of things could be explained by Anata's apparent laziness, but there are still some left that don't fit. Also, you say that my argument about how Anata's summary covered the aspects of the game is subjective (which is fair), but you can't seem to admit that your arguments are just as subjective. You seem to think that a big reason why I am suspicious of Anata is her possible defense of Sudo, but that isn't really true. I've restated my strongest points several times, and that isn't one I have repeatedly mentioned. It's just something I noticed and saw to mention as something that would help my case, if it were true.

And also in post 314, you say:

This is a good point. Jitsu, did she actually place you on his top two scum list? If so, I am missing that post. If she did, that might be scummy, for you really didn’t prod Sudo for the mass claim idea. Sudo said he had an idea, Jitsu asked what he had in mind. There was no way that Jitsu knew Sudo was talking about a mass claim when he asked. However, if there is a post that I am missing that Anata says Jitsu is on her top two scum list, please post.

I cited my source for this and you seem to have acknowledged that my assumption was at least reasonable. Now that you've conceded that, where do you stand on this now? It almost seems like you are agree with me here (to a point at least), on the condition that she considered me scummy, which I think I provided reasonable evidence for.

I don't necessarily think you are scummy. I just find it a little odd that you seem to be so convinced about her, after I've raised reasonable doubts to the contrary. I do agree that there are some small inconsistencies either way that cannot be fully explained by either theory. But in that case, I've made an effort to thoroughly analyze and fully consider the cases as much as possible.



About Anata:

I'm really pissed that she left the game right now, at the height of suspicion on her. At least four or five people at that point wanted info from her, and possibly more. Now she has denied us any possibility of getting that defense. I was hoping to glean information on her from her defense (more on that later). Now she's dropped out of the game without even posting in the thread first. I hate to read anything into the fact that she dropped out (apparently by PM) to the Mod, but given that she said she would be back and posting on Monday, she sure changed her mind awfully quickly. It is at least plausible that the heat got to her and she bailed.

Mexal is mostly right about my view on her. I do believe it is more likely that Anata is scum than just a clueless townie, though I still feel there is a small chance it could be the latter. I thought my case against her was pretty strong (well, as strong as any other typical case for lynch on a Day 1), but I did moderate my opinions of her a bit in my posts, because I had made mistakes so far, and I wanted to see if anyone would believe me (given that Mexal had expressed doubts about my Anatascum theory before). I think Mexal picked up on that a bit.

I already mentioned why I think Anata is scummy, so I don't think I need to fully restate my case here. The rest of my suspicions on her are based on things that I can't prove or apply strong logic to, so I didn't post them before because I was trying to get a read on them when she posted her defense.

Other than the points I presented, my biggest problem with her was her previous attempts at defense were inconsistent. She almost seemed to be playing the newbie card in #162, and said that she would attempt a re-read, but where was it? She had a long, long time to do that. Then after my post #242, she decided to defend herself by turning the tables on me, without saying anything substantive -- that's a dangerous newbie move, IMO. Given her self-admitted cautious nature of not voting or expressing suspicion without some degree of certainty, this style of defense is completely counterintuitive to me. If she still did not understand what was happening at that point, why didn't she say so? Why did she not play the newbie card then, when it seemed to have worked (to a point, at least) in #162? Also, when people pointed out scummy behavior on Sudo and Gunslinger, she did not agree. Even if she wasn't defending them (which is possible), she was at least condoning or making excuses for scummy behavior. That suggested to me that she had at least read enough to know her opinion would be unpopular, in the case of her Gunslinger defense.

In post #241, she seems to be saying that she has previous Mafia experience, but not on these forums -- that she is a newbie here, but not to Mafia in general. But it's not in response to any kind of a serious accusation, and she doesn't take this tone when I attacked her later. And then, she proceeds to subtly defend GunslingerKB (intentionally or not) and not take him too seriously because of bad reasoning, EVEN THOUGH she put the suspicion on me earlier for something that was untrue (and pointed out to her to be such). I just can't quite believe her read was THAT bad (it would have to be really, really awful to reach the conclusions she did). And yet she continued to trust her analysis even though a lot of people were calling her on it.

Finally, if she was innocent, why did she defend herself the way she did. The only real defense she had was to claim that she did not defend Sudo or Gunslinger. She never addressed any of my other points. Even claiming ignorance would have been a passable defense, but she chose the riskier route of trying to fling it back at me.


In my mind, the two likeliest possibilities are these:

(1) She is a newbie townie that got overwhelmed by forum play and got totally and completely lost, and did not want to look weak by admitting she was wrong. Attempting this kind of defense was stupid, in my opinion. It was a huge risk, and I think she would have known it would be seen as scummy from her previous experience in real life mafia. It takes some skill to pull off a defense like she did and have it look decently believable. The newbie defense would have been much more believable and allowed her to blend in. I think this is possible, but unlikely.

(2) She is a scum with some prior experience that made an attempt to cast suspicion on me that completely backfired. After I attacked her, she thought she could use the suspicion of the three quick votes, my uncertainty of her laziness, and the long delay to turn the tables on me, but it failed when I countered with another strong post (#267). I think it left her nowhere to hide and she panicked. She feared she would be lynched, even though that was hardly a certainty. So she quietly dropped out of the game.

I am not completely convinced she is scum, but I still think there is a good probability that she is.


As for who the play is, I tend to look at the candidates that several people at least consider to be scummy (to get a better chance of hitting a scum), and thenchoose the one that we can learn the most information from.

I don't support a Sudo lynch at all. I still can't figure him out from the previous highly questionable plays, and I still think there is a possibility he could be a Jester. Plus, I don't think knowing his alignment will tell me much, other than if he comes up scum, it looks bad for Anata. Plus his play lately has actually bordered on useful. I want to see more from him.

Gunslinger is the "semi-obvious" scum. His behavior was so strange and the inconsistency so obvious, everyone saw it right away, I think. I don't excuse his behavior (it was bad), but I think if he is scum, he's gonna screw up again and it's not going to be terribly hard to see it. We have the potential to learn something about Anata from his lynch. I don't think we can really fault anyone for supporting this lynch if he comes up town, though, so I don't think he is the play for today.

As for Miztef, I think he is scummy for the reasons I said earlier. A decent lynch. If he is scum, he is hiding a little better as a townie then Gunslinger is, and he is trying hard to blend in (though not doing a great job). Many people have commented on him, but most people seem to agree that he is scum trying to blend in. Given the level of agreement, I don't think he is the play if we are trying to gain the most information. I would support a lynch on him though if we can't agree on Anata. Miztef is the (relatively) "safe" lynch, but not the most useful.

As for Anata, if she is scum, she is the scary kind. She was lurking enough for people to not get much of a read on her at all, and it took a good post by me to expose the possibility that she even could be scum. If she was deceiving people, it was in a subtle, calculated way. If she is scum, she is the scum that is the most dangerous to keep around. She has been a person that most people have commented on, and yet disagreed about. So we can figure out who was right and who wasn't if we were to lynch her. Plus, we could potentially learn if she was defending Sudo and/or Gunslinger, if Mexal's case against CKD has merit, and whether or not she was trying to frame me. I really hate to lynch a possible townie, but she still looks pretty scummy to me. I think she is the biggest bang for our lynching buck, at this point. If she comes up town, CKD can be (mostly) cleared, whereas I would only be harming myself, since I led the attack against her. Even in spite of this, Anata is my preferred choice because she is in my top three scummiest list, and it provides the most information and potential talking points for the town. Anata is the strategic choice, I think, as it gives usable info either way she comes up.

I do think that Jerubbaal is right about something. Several people I see as pro-town are really beating each other up when we should be working together to pressure the scum and/or decide the best lynching strategy.

[Jitsu]

So we have permission to nail you to the wall if we find inconsistencies?

You never need permission to do that, but yes. I accept full responsibility for every mistake or inconsistence I have ever posted in this game. If you don't believe something I say or have a problem with it, you should always comment on it. If you feel it's bad enough, you should always nail me to the wall. I will explain and defend my post or admit my mistakes.

I did honestly try to be especially careful here to comment fairly on everything. If that opens me up to greater scrutiny here, so be it.

[Mexal]

You weren't lying when you said that was a gigantic post. I'm impressed

Mexal is mostly right about my view on her. I do believe it is more likely that Anata is scum than just a clueless townie, though I still feel there is a small chance it could be the latter. I thought my case against her was pretty strong (well, as strong as any other typical case for lynch on a Day 1), but I did moderate my opinions of her a bit in my posts, because I had made mistakes so far, and I wanted to see if anyone would believe me (given that Mexal had expressed doubts about my Anatascum theory before). I think Mexal picked up on that a bit.

This makes me feel better. I was starting to feel sorry that I put words in your mouth but I'm glad I read you correctly. Makes me feel more confident in my opinion of you.

She is a scum with some prior experience that made an attempt to cast suspicion on me that completely backfired. After I attacked her, she thought she could use the suspicion of the three quick votes, my uncertainty of her laziness, and the long delay to turn the tables on me, but it failed when I countered with another strong post (#267). I think it left her nowhere to hide and she panicked. She feared she would be lynched, even though that was hardly a certainty. So she quietly dropped out of the game.

More likely in my opinion.

I do think that Jerubbaal is right about something. Several people I see as pro-town are really beating each other up when we should be working together to pressure the scum and/or decide the best lynching strategy.

I completely disagree. Regardless of what your read is on a person, you should always question things you find wrong. Don't completely trust a person until the game proves you right otherwise you might get burned.

As for the rest of your post, it's a good sum up of what is going on. I see your points in regards to Miztef and could get behind a lynch of him. Honestly though, I rather lynch Anata due to the fact that I think she's scummy, I think she provides information and I don't want her to be replaced. An example of why would be in a game I'm playing, a few months back I put a lot of pressure on a guy who was scum. He couldn't handle the pressure so he disappeared and lurked for 2 weeks. When he was sufficiently prodded, he came back and fucked up the game. One of the players wanted him to get replaced which would have then caused us to have to go through the entire day 1 all over again. I thought that person was scummy for it and he turned out to be our healer. Regardless, I don't like replacements of people who back out after facing an onslaught of pressure and I rather lynch them then people actively participating in the game.

Also, I see the points on Gunslinger and I agree with them. Unfortunately though, I haven't decided what I make of it yet. I can't see how CKD can find them scummy yet not find Anata's points scummy either. So uh...I don't know yet.

[jerubbaal]

Nice summary, I think it accurately addresses most of the relevant points of the gamestate. Actually, it was a touch more summary than I might have liked. It was a touch too much rehash and not a lot of new analysis, although your looking into the strategy of who to lynch is really important.

This is, of course, a reduction, but I would tend to agree with the sentiment expressed by Jitsu and Mexal that either Miztef or Anata is our lynch for today. I would consider either valid, but I think that the case is stronger against Miztef. His whole pattern of behavior has been scummy, not just a couple comments here or there.

It is tempting just to shoot for an Anata lynch because she bailed, and then we wouldn't have to deal with a replacement coming in, but that's more an argument of convenience than logic. My biggest problem with the argument against Anata is accepting this:

As for Anata, if she is scum, she is the scary kind. She was lurking enough for people to not get much of a read on her at all, and it took a good post by me to expose the possibility that she even could be scum. If she was deceiving people, it was in a subtle, calculated way. If she is scum, she is the scum that is the most dangerous to keep around.

Not addressing arguments placed against you doesn't seem like a subtle, crafty thing to do, it just seems dumb. None of the analysis that she did was very insightful or useful at all, it just seemed random. She did seem to try to throw suspicion at you, so maybe you see her as a devious mastermind, but her case against you was badly made and not likely to convince anyone. Don't pat yourself too hard on the back for "exposing" her posts as scummy, I don't think anyone found them particularly satisfying (at least I did not). Her analysis was inept, her posting was inept, her play was inept, I'm having a hard time believing she is devious, crafty, and subtle, as you suggest.

However, the case against her is strong, and I do find it somewhat damning that she ran away when she came under fire. I would not be displeased with an Anata lynch, but I think Miztef is the better choice, simply because I think the case against him is stronger (maybe just because I've been pushing it lately, so maybe it's my pride getting in the way).

[Mexal]

Not addressing arguments placed against you doesn't seem like a subtle, crafty thing to do, it just seems dumb.

I could make it crafty and subtle. Have you ever seen the movie

Thank you for smoking

? It's very easy to make a rebuttal while ignoring the entire point of the argument but making it seem like you're arguing the same thing until you control said argument. CKD tried to do it by ignoring everything I said to him while continuing to harp on the fact that I wouldn't post a reasoning behind my vote. People do it all the time...Korlash did it earlier in this game when arguing with me. Of course, that was more he didn't understand what I was saying but had I not pushed it, I don't think anyone else would have truly noticed he wasn't arguing anything I was talking about, but more what he wanted to talk about since for awhile, they were defending his point.

[Miztef]

I can't believe the mess I've got myself into. Since I'm likely to die soon, I'm gonna

claim Civilian

. I guess it wouldn't be so bad if you lynched me, this has been one the of the productive day 1's I've seen in a game without getting too muddied up.

If I did have a strong case against someone, I'd honestly post it right now. I don't. This game has been really fast, and has been hard to keep up with. Any time I do get a read on someone, it's already been posted about 5 posts ago. Everything I have to say about others has basically been said already.

I'll

unvote vote: anata

as well, as that seems like the most likely candidate besides me.

Here's a small write-up on my general opinions of people in the game. I'd love to go into detail, but I've had a horrible day, and I don't have much time anyway.

Mexal - Very pro-town. Because him and jitsu are both so "pro-town" I'm inclined to believe at least one of them is scum, but I've yet to see any major flaws in mexal's arguments, so I see no reason to consider him for lynch

Jitsu - Very Pro-town. Great arguments, lots of clear arguments. I enjoy reading his posts more then anyone else's.

Jerubbaal - Neutral/scummy. Kinda just pops in and out. I don't particularly find his arguments bad, just not very useful. I would keep an eye on him later days, but not a good lynch candidate for today.

CKD - Scummy. Don't like most of his arguments. They are rarely very clear and he gets emotional (it seems). Of course, it's very OMGUS of me to think him scummy but meh, that's how it is.

Korlash - Neutral. Very odd player. Some posts scream scum to me, others make me think he is very town. Just kinda random.

Gunslinger - Scummy. I think everyone knows he seems scummy. Not much else to say.

Abstract - ???. Kinda disappeared this game didn't he? I don't really have a read on him.

Anata - Scummy. Shocking isn't it? Even if I didn't think she was scummy, the way the town is going, it's basically me or her, so I have to be against her.

Sudo - Scummy/Other - As others have pointed out, Sudo seems to have ulterior motives, yet is not especially scummy. I'd want to keep him around just to see how it goes.

jayalay - ???. Kinda disappeared on us too. Don't even remember any of this posts.

oEJo - Townie. I like his posts. Not scummy really, but not particularly pro-town either.



So, after my basically worthless write-up, please do what you will. If I do survive for tomorrow, I'll try to keep up more, but right now I don't have much more of a defense.

[Abstract Actuary]

My opinion of the Anata situation is somewhat neutral. I found her summary post to be acceptable. I don't think she represented it as a comprehensive list of every issue. Of the stuff she said, much of it was a simple restatement of events but some of it was useful. In fact, I found myself agreeing with a few of her points about Jitsu.

Then Jitsu attacked the post for the subtle attacks on him. After some other debates died down, Jitsu brought it up again and then the bandwagon against Anata formed. Frankly, I'm surprised her post and Jitsu's attack resulted in a bandwagon. I do find her lack of a response to be suspicious, though.

My vote is currently on Miztef and I still think he is the scummiest player to date. I know I haven't participated much, but to be honest, I don't have much to say. At this point we are just running around in circles. I think we need to get a night under our belt and then go from there.

Is there some sort of penalty for requesting a replacement? Why is this accepted? I know that sometimes there are extreme circumstances, but it seems like there isn't a very high standard used by players who request a replacement. It is really annoying.

My preference would be to wait for the two replacements, have them catch up on the thread and give their thoughts, and then proceed with a lynch.

Of the people who have been mentioned as possible lynch candidates I would support lynching them in this order: Miztef, GunslingerKB, Sudo_Nym, Anata112, Korlash.

[curiouskarmadog]

Wow, now Mitzef is also opportunistic

"Anata - Scummy. Shocking isn't it? Even if I didn't think she was scummy, the way the town is going, it's basically me or her, so I have to be against her. "

Wow, guess he is trying to cover his ass Day 2, after a mislynch...."Well, I had to vote to lynch her, or you would have hung me." Ask yourself, why did he post that comment?

here are some other arguements I bet we will hear Day 2 from MItzef.."Wow Anata was town, well, CKD must of known she was town that is why he defended her to look town"

or

"See Anata WAS scum, so CKD must have been defending her because they are buddies.."

It is lose/lose for me...

Mex, you want information? I am actively pushing for a Mitzef lynch....if he IS town, wont that make me look mighty suspicious? This guy is all types of scum.


also note that he voted for me because I was "spreading suspicion," didnt the hypocrite just do the exact same thing with his last post?

at any rate, I will have time tomorrow to post, and this game is the first on my agenda....I think people need to seriously look at Mitzef.

[Mexal]

Mex, you want information? I am actively pushing for a Mitzef lynch....if he IS town, wont that make me look mighty suspicious? This guy is all types of scum.

No, you wouldn't be anymore suspicious if Miztef turned out to be town. Not now anyway.

Btw, I don't fault Miztef for being opportunistic in his situation. If it was me or Anata, I'd go after Anata as well.

[Jitsu]

Dang it, it seems a few more posts got in when I was ready to submit this. I will look over them and post again. These comments are in response to Jerubbaal.

Not addressing arguments placed against you doesn't seem like a subtle, crafty thing to do, it just seems dumb. None of the analysis that she did was very insightful or useful at all, it just seemed random. She did seem to try to throw suspicion at you, so maybe you see her as a devious mastermind, but her case against you was badly made and not likely to convince anyone. Don't pat yourself too hard on the back for "exposing" her posts as scummy, I don't think anyone found them particularly satisfying (at least I did not). Her analysis was inept, her posting was inept, her play was inept, I'm having a hard time believing she is devious, crafty, and subtle, as you suggest.

Sorry I didn't explain it better. I've been struggling to explain in just the right way what I mean. Devious mastermind isn't what I had in mind -- not quite that level of craftiness. Her suspicion on me did not quite fit with a sloppy read in my mind. She was noncommittal on almost everything else but on me. Why should I have stood out above everyone else then? There were the logical fallacies, but she didn't make her case based on those. Instead it was for something that nobody really thought I had a part in. Sloppy read or not, if you are going to have someone in your top two, I would think they are the person you are going to try hard to get right on your analysis, and she definitely didn't do that. By the same token, I agree that a devious scum mastermind scenario doesn't fit either, because she made too many mistakes.

It's more like she wanted to throw suspicion on me in a very subtle way. Attacking me alone might have been too risky, so maybe she decided to post an analysis of everyone, and distort just a few things to throw just a little suspicion on me. Most of the content was a sloppy, non-committal analysis based on a quick rehash of the voting history she put together. If she avoided saying too much about a lot of people, it would be less likely that she would be caught. That way, the deception would be harder to find and she could claim ignorance and play the newbie card if she had to. The "Am I Wrong?" post at the end of her analysis on me in post #153 seemed to be almost like a way to backpedal if someone did catch her, but also a bid to convince people that what she said was reasonable.

As I said initially, the timing was perfect for an attack on me, as I was reeling after people called me out on the logical fallacies. I admit being biased in a sense here, as I was the one she attacked, but I think that made it easier for me to see that her analysis on me wasn't accurate. At first I focused more on her comments about me when I read, and I really thought she was trying to frame me. When Mexal seemed to dismiss my suspicion of a frame job (a little too strongly worded based on hindsight, but the concept is right), I knew I had to go back and reread the whole post from a fresh perspective. When I reread, I noticed she seemed to get most of the basic facts right on the others (mainly because she wasn't saying much about them), but when I saw that the analysis of me was noticeably wrong and more certain-sounding than the others, it seemed weird. There were a few oddities with the other players, but nothing as distorted as what she said about me, IMHO.

As for her defense, I'm still a little puzzled by it myself. I would think that she would have played the newbie card either way (whether she were scum or not). But I think she would have more of an incentive to avoid the speaking points and try to return fire at me if she were scum.

And yes, you are right, I did misspeak about exposing her. Several people did find her at least possibly scummy after her analysis, so I didn't expose her as such. I do feel that I strengthened the case against her though, in all modesty.

However, the case against her is strong, and I do find it somewhat damning that she ran away when she came under fire. I would not be displeased with an Anata lynch, but I think Miztef is the better choice, simply because I think the case against him is stronger (maybe just because I've been pushing it lately, so maybe it's my pride getting in the way).

I think the cases against both of them are good and I would feel that we have a decent chance of hitting scum either way (which is about all you can ask for, given the inherent uncertainty and bad odds that naturally come on Day 1). I think that Miztef is a slighly higher percentage lynch (meaning that he is a little more likely to be scum), but as I said, I would prefer Anata for the extra information it would tell us.

[Jitsu]

My opinion of the Anata situation is somewhat neutral. I found her summary post to be acceptable. I don't think she represented it as a comprehensive list of every issue. Of the stuff she said, much of it was a simple restatement of events but some of it was useful. In fact, I found myself agreeing with a few of her points about Jitsu.

What did you think was useful? And which points did she make about me that you agree with?

Is there some sort of penalty for requesting a replacement? Why is this accepted? I know that sometimes there are extreme circumstances, but it seems like there isn't a very high standard used by players who request a replacement. It is really annoying.

Yes, it is. There is really no standard for seeking replacement. You just tell the mod in thread or send a PM, then you are pretty much off the hook without any kind of a penalty. Sucks, doesn't it?

My preference would be to wait for the two replacements, have them catch up on the thread and give their thoughts, and then proceed with a lynch.

Well, anything Anata's replacement says is likely to be skewed given what happened. But if we were to lynch Anata, I would prefer that her replacement could at least claim if we got that far. And I would certainly like to hear from Jayalay's replacement. I remember that she also subtly defended Gunslinger also, though I can't really question her replacement on what she said.

Of the people who have been mentioned as possible lynch candidates I would support lynching them in this order: Miztef, GunslingerKB, Sudo_Nym, Anata112, Korlash.

Miztef and Gunslinger I understand. Sudo I do not understand very well. Please tell me why you support a Sudo_Nym lynch as your 3rd best choice. What do you hope to learn from it?