Gistou (Over!)

[Cerberus v666]

Ego cuz no way I'm going to actually keep up with this without seeing it on my main. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

Ugh. I spend an entire day defending my scum partner, and I don't even get the pleasure of wriggling my way out of the lynch I deserved.

[Cerberus v666]

Ignore FB.

The flavor is 100% optional. No one should EVER suggest a moderator cut down on their flavor unless it's actively interfering with your ability to understand the results of your actions.

When I get home I'll copy some comments I made in the dead threads in here.

Thanks for the game mastin.

[Cerberus v666]

Did the flavor mame you unable to understand the results of your night actions, or any of the flips?

If the answer to that question is no, then the flavor was optional (in the sense that reading everything she write was not necessary at all, but reading the original posts about the game were useful as they should be).

FA: Pretty sure you can't complain too much about factions getting wrecked by night actions when mine had *two* guilties on it AND had two members shot by OTHER SCUM TEAMS. Not town vigs playing well. Scum teams townreading us.

I'm simply amazed town was stupid enough that you guys lived past D3.

[Cerberus v666]

Better question: how many scum got lynched without guilties on them.

The answer to that question is 1.

[Cerberus v666]

No. People are atupid. That's why the argument happened day 2.

Every single person who was unable to understand that all "eliminate threats" win conditions were town, WHEN THE MODERATOR USED 50% VERBIAGE TO DESCRIBE SCUM WIN CONDITIONS, was being INCREDIBLY DENSE.

ESPECIALLY AFTER YOU GUYS HAD 5!!!!!!!! TOWN ROLE CARDS TO LOOK AT.

Pedit: true, I forgot about rb. Cheetory: most of those lynches were driven by guilties, which sorta deprives them of any merit. :p

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and the SS guilty happened for like basically no reason. Luna was outright townreading him, and just...checked him anyways.

Lol. So silly. Plays well enough to get both cops townreading him, and still gets copped.

Pedit: I'm talking about everyone else, not you guys obviously.

Cheetory, please read my comment about the guilties.

Peditx2: one of the guilties was scum on scum. The rest were from the race check, which SHOULD NOT HAVE FUNCTIONED AS A COP, BUT DID.

[Cerberus v666]

I said this in the dead thread too, but just want to note that the town probably wasn't overpowered overall...considering they were arguably one roleblock away from losing.

Rach doesn't block you, you recruit her, you have a roleblock to stop a vig, you kill one and shut down the other, and have a good shot at winning.

Of course, you shoulda been dead on N3 after nos got lynched D3 after being caught killing me, but towns inability to work out that simple logical progression is another issue entirely.

[Cerberus v666]

Cheetory: most of those lynches were driven by guilties, which sorta deprives them of any merit. :p

Gotta target the right person to get a guilty.
Gotta leave PRs alive for them to drive guilties.
Gotta not have the multiball factions muddying the waters with fakeguilties either.

*shrug*

Just think that people should have known what they were getting into with how this game was advertised.

there were 8 town investigators and 4 confirmed town in a 28 player setup

not sure what are you trying to say cheet. this town was op.

Actually, based on mastins mod meta, the undead group should have been a masonry.

So there were arguably 10 conftown, just, again, town wasn't willing to put in the 10 seconds if research it would have taken to realize that.

[Cerberus v666]

Man, copper, you're right, I am an asshole in post games. :p

[Cerberus v666]

(Even if they weren't masons, they were al effectively super lovers, since it could be reason a KY expected thst they wouldn't vote for one another, meaning on day 1 a lynch of undead would have required 15/23 non undead slots.)

For some reason I thought there were 6 indead. Ah well. Super masonry too, with the whole watcher+2xbp+race checker+cop PLUS AN EVERY OTHER DAY VIG thing they had going on.

Scum were very close to winning. A few mistakes were made.

[Cerberus v666]

I was about to say WTs kill on Mathblade killed our faction too, but arguably IF they had been prepared to actively play, they could have easily got nosferatu lynched that day and recruited thr next night.

It was only bad for our faction overall because it was followed by apathy.

Not saying the optimal play isn't recruiting, it is, you should always recruit at 1 member instead of risking just dyng to a random vig, but it didn't actually kill our faction the way WTs apathy did.

FA: you guys were one recruit away from controlling two night kills, allowing you to blow your way through the shields on the vigs, or just get to a majority fast enough to just end the game.

[Cerberus v666]

Yes, but Dave couldn't control use both kills himself. Better to have cult ed two members of that team on N5, killed rach with the wulden kill, thus confirming wake...then you cult wake, and have a "conftown" member. Could have left rach alive instead, but that's obviously a risk because of her known roleblock.

Gg, you win.

[Cerberus v666]

Fa, you're right that you guys couldn't have controlled the wulden because of Dave's deafh, but you still shoulda made sure rach died. Too big a risk to your endgame.

[Cerberus v666]

Town had 4.5 kills,the undead had a non-consecutive vig that they only used N1.

[Cerberus v666]

To go deeper, town had 4.5 kills (one which was unstoppable, the lynch, and 3 of which would only work on 78% of town, confirming those it failed on as town, with false clears on 3/9 scum ), and a total of 5 BP vests. Scum had 2.5 kills(2 potential strong), and one full vest, and another conditional full vest.

[Cerberus v666]

Anyways, honestly, town, all of you, I don't care about the balance concerns. Like I said in the dead thread, it's possible that all the power was needed given how close town actually was to losing.

With that said.

Town(all factions) deserved to lose for being stupid and not figuring out that nosferatu killed *someone* on N2, and for letting someone who claimed miller on DAY FIVE live.
Isolationists deserved to lose because SS took the hard path in trying to prevent his lynch, and for WT performing the double whammy of not recruiting on N3 while also going completely inactive and apathetic on D4 when there was a guilty they could have lynched, and for RAM/Ceph not staying out of the spotlight enough in known multiball/not leaving directions for teammates in the event of death(in my defense I planned on staying BP most of the game and saving the redirection for an outed vig at a critical time, but that just means the mistake was not figuring out a different way of playing out that day/night so we wouldn't have had to kill luna immediately and I could have stayed BP)
Wulden deserved to lose because Tim hung himself with miller claim or whatever, and for not killing rach over wake, and because I can't remember anything anyone in the faction did other than Mathblade(see why the cult deserved to lose).
Cult deserved to lose because lurksacks shouldn't win, so Nosferatu REALLY deserved to lose, and they screwed up their defense against the guilty that existed on them from D3, AND for recruiting/killing the wrong people, AND for ASOIAF's ridiculous "this claim is clearly designed to counteract any potential guilties against my slot" claim

This is why I come off as an asshole in post games though.

As far as I can tell, everyone fucked up, and I tell you all how you fucked up, and everyone tries to act like they didn't fuck up and they actually *deserved* to win, when that couldn't be further from the truth.

[Cerberus v666]

So, mmm, who was suspicious of me on D1?

Expedience was. Who else was? Does anyone remember?

If you were suspicious of me on D1, please share why. I'd like to determine if your suspicion was because of something unique to scum play, or if it was because of the things I do as town that always make people suspicious of me.

[Cerberus v666]

Me=RAM slot as a whole, but if something was said by Bins rather than me that caused the issues, please differentiate so we can both try to become better. ^^

[Cerberus v666]

Up until you made that claim/performed those night actions, I would have said you're the only slot in the game who deserved to win. And yes, the night action mistake(s) were small, but still the wrong choices made with the knowledge you had.

After that, not so much. ^^

You survived 5 days after being confirmed scum not because of your claim. That was purely town being idiots. I'm actually not sure on the timeline for your claim/when nosferatu died, because if you claimed it at any time other than IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THEIR FLIP, it shouldn't have been believed. Prior to that point sure, you could claim you didn't know you were a racial miller, but after that you had no such defense to use.

For the record, for those of you who might not realize, THIS is what town missed:

the people parsing all the flood of information we got all died last night lmao.

Word. Now everyone is mainly having trouble solidly putting things together to understand what actually occurred.

I mean, I'm not being too harsh on them, right? I do have insider information etc, but I THINK from the information they have they should be able to put all the pieces together.'

Bacde watched Luna
Toogeloo BG'd luna.
Bacde saw Nosferatu and himself visit Luna, and did not see Toogeloo.
Luna died.
Nosferatu claims he visited Stormblade with his role.
Stormblade died.

Luna dying through protection means: Toogeloo is lying scum, was redirected, or was roleblocked. The first two are unlikely because luna was a high priority watcher target, and toogeloo was a low priority redirect target.
Bacde not seeing Toogeloo means: Toogeloo is lying scum, was redirected, was roleblocked, or Bacde himself was redirected. We already established the first two as unlikely, so Toogeloo was roleblocked, or Bacde was redirected.

No reason to assume two redirectors. Most likely that one of Bacde or Nosferatu was redirected.

If Bacde was redirected, and Nosferatu was not, he saw Nosferatu alone visit a corpse. Nosferatu guilty.
If Nosferatu was redirected, and Bacde was not, he saw Nosferatu alone visit a corpse. Nosferatu guilty.

These hold true regardless of whether Toogeloo was roleblocked or not, but not seeing toogeloo makes it more likely that Bacde was redirected than Nosferatu.

That's where they should be at, right? I'm not using any information they're not privy to. They're just not seeing it.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and while the stuff i quoted above was going on, EXPEDIENCE HAD A FUCKING RESULT THAT WASN'T A CLEAR FROM NOSFERATU.

Town simultaneously saw him visit a corpse, AND knew he might be a threat, and they STILL didn't lynch him.

[Cerberus v666]

what was a better claim for me then cerb?

I was basically a mod confirmed cult at that point

Good question.

I don't really think one was possible, but it was *most likely* the timing of the claim that was the misplay, more than the fact of it. The PGOizer thing was nonsense fluff that you shouldn't have put in to protect Nosferatu, probably, since they were basically dead already.

I mean, you really were basically fucked and had a limit on your life that you didn't have any control over. You *had* to claim the racial miller+uncultable things, so I suppose I can't hold those against you, even though both of those things SHOULD have got you lynched on principle...the first because of the timing, and the second because you were a non-human whose alignment could change, and you didn't share that VITAL information with the town so they'd change how they looked at the game.

The PGOizer thing was just bad imo.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't understand why a nos flip made my I didn't know I am a racial miller thing unreasonable?

Because of this:

8. Nosferatu, The Other, Killed N4.

The race you'd return was other. His race was other. Therefore as soon as you saw his flip as town, you would have realized your racial check result would make you appear to look like him, therefore you are now officially a miller and need to claim it.

[Cerberus v666]

Dan: Thanks for the correction about the RB thing.

And it doesn't matter if it "wouldn't have mattered" or not. Optimal play is optimal play is optimal play.

Everyone needs to stop with this results oriented analysis.

The results DO NOT MATTER.

What matters if making the correct play at the time, with the information you had/could reasonably infer. If you did anything other than that, you made a mistake. Depending on the gravity of the mistake, you might deserve to lose because of it.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't understand why a nos flip made my I didn't know I am a racial miller thing unreasonable?

Because of this:

8. Nosferatu, The Other, Killed N4.

The race you'd return was other. His race was other. Therefore as soon as you saw his flip as town, you would have realized your racial check result would make you appear to look like him, therefore you are now officially a miller and need to claim it.

I realized that (fakely) just as soon as I relized (fakely) in what situation I was and I tried to apease to people with absolute honesty (fakely) to make them believe I just relized I'm a racial miller.

not sure what are you saying cuase that was what i did?

Hmm, you're right. My bad, I thought there was some distance between the racial claim and the nosferatu flip, because I was more focused on the cult-immune aspect of the claim when I first read it. Sorry.

Alright, so you personally made some sub par choices with night actions, but they probably weren't catastrophic, especially since you couldn't control dave to make him go change Tim's kill on Wake to a kill on Rach. *maybe* you, personally, didn't deserve to lose, but the rest of your faction did. Fair enough FA?

pedit: Yeah, that's the main thing I disliked about it. It fit into the situation you were in far too neatly, accounting for 1)the kill town should have realized was performed by Nos, 2)the culting attempt, 3)the potential racial check issue. I obviously had insider info, but it SCREAMED manufactured claim to me.

[Cerberus v666]

I think I didn't realize you claimed racial miller in that post too because you didn't actually say the word miller in it. You just started using it as a shorthand at some point after that, and so I thought that was when you had claimed it.

[Cerberus v666]

I don't understand why a nos flip made my I didn't know I am a racial miller thing unreasonable?

Because of this:

8. Nosferatu, The Other, Killed N4.

The race you'd return was other. His race was other. Therefore as soon as you saw his flip as town, you would have realized your racial check result would make you appear to look like him, therefore you are now officially a miller and need to claim it.

I realized that (fakely) just as soon as I relized (fakely) in what situation I was and I tried to apease to people with absolute honesty (fakely) to make them believe I just relized I'm a racial miller.

not sure what are you saying cuase that was what i did?

Hmm, you're right. My bad, I thought there was some distance between the racial claim and the nosferatu flip, because I was more focused on the cult-immune aspect of the claim when I first read it. Sorry.

Alright, so you personally made some sub par choices with night actions, but they probably weren't catastrophic, especially since you couldn't control dave to make him go change Tim's kill on Wake to a kill on Rach. *maybe* you, personally, didn't deserve to lose, but the rest of your faction did. Fair enough FA?

pedit: Yeah, that's the main thing I disliked about it. It fit into the situation you were in far too neatly, accounting for 1)the kill town should have realized was performed by Nos, 2)the culting attempt, 3)the potential racial check issue. I obviously had insider info

, but it SCREAMED manufactured claim to me.

I mean, 2/3 of the claim was what you HAD to claim if you had been culted, since town should have been able to infer that the cult mechanic changed peoples races...just couldn't believe town was so blind.

[Cerberus v666]

I mean, 2/3 of the claim was what you HAD to claim if you had been culted, since town should have been able to infer that the cult mechanic changed peoples races...just couldn't believe town was so blind.

It was it but with adding the 1/3 of that and a bunch of ATE showing myself as the most misrable person on earth for having such a bullshit role and getting such guilties on myself ; it kindda worked!

Yeah people are dumb about AtE, they should really know that it's NAI for you. You even tell them that it is in like every game and they just don't even think about it.

idk, I don't like the pgoizer thing still like at all, but meh. I think you may have overestimated town in terms of how much they would have cared about you having a killing power. Since you were basically dead already, it probably wasn't necessary to explain away your night actions. IDK. I think that's a much more complex question in the context of the game.

pedit: RB did well. Toogeloo posted a reads list on like D4 or something that identified every single scum slot except for RB, who had JUST been culted, so he accurately read him too based on the play so far. He had 1 or two town in there as potentially scum but yeah, the game was basically 100% solved by him at that moment.

[Cerberus v666]

Cult still having a recruit after we lynched the leader is not something I realized tbh.

cuase we didn't recruit anyone after that point. the only time we tried it got blocked.

and the kill was not that obvious. there was a mistrious kill night 2 and I was using it for my claim. it was our kill.

The sillies thing about all of that is that the kill was OBVIOUSLY performed by nos with the info town had. Town should have KNOWN the cult had a night kill after nos flipped without any personal targeted abilities. That means if he was seen visited someone, he was killing or culting them. Since the people he said he was visiting all flipped, town then knew he had not attempted to cult them(unless he was trying to cult me, but my immunity to being culted was NOT known to any of the players because it wasn't included in my role card), so he MUST have performed a kill on them.

[Cerberus v666]

I actually had a guilty on me N4 when I claimed miller. So no matter what I claimed I would have been caught lying.

The only lynch on someone who didn't have a guilty was Wayward Thinker.

True. Someone should do the math on the likelihood of a guilty being received each night, given the number of investigatives that existed. At game start, there was like a 30% chance of an accurate guilty for each slot with the ability to investigate race or alignment. 9 such investigators(not all town, for the 3 scum ones their odds of hitting scum were a bit lower). Mathblade, wanna do math?

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and there was also a watcher and a tracker, so...they could also get pseudo guilties on people. Odds were a lot smaller that they'd hit though, compared to the racial checkers and cops.

[Cerberus v666]

Undead Risen Slaves were most certainly not how you design third parties.