Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *GAME OVER*

[Bookitty]

We can afford one mislynch. So, assuming we mislynch today, here is the position we'll find ourselves in tomorrow, most likely:

If we lynch FLoC, and he's town:

Most likely pete d will be nightkilled. Nanosauromo, myself, and Samruc will be left. Nanosauromo will reveal his investigation, and each of us will be into the game of "Who do I find most believable?"

If we lynch Nanosauromo and he's the cop:

FLoC will be asked to protect pete d. This leaves only FLoC, myself, and Samruc as targets (regardless of FLoC's alignment) because if FLoC were scum, then he would still have to leave pete d alive in order to protect his cover story. Then we'd be in the position of having one confirmed townie (I still regard you that way, pete d-- nothing your predecessors has done has been indicative of scummy mason status) a claimed doctor and an unclaimed. The equation changes from one in three to one in two, which is more favourable to town, I think.

If we lynch Samruc and he's town:

FLoC will be asked to protect either pete d or Nanosauromo.

If FLoC protects pete d (or pretends to):

1. Nanosauromo will either have an investigation, or be NKed.

2. The only possible targets for the NK are myself, Nanosauromo, or FLoC.

3. If any of the three are killed, we have one confirmed townie, and the more favourable equation of choosing between one in two, rather than one in three.

If FLoC protects Nanosauromo (or pretends to):

1. Nanosauromo will have an investigation.

2. I think it likely that pete d will be NKed.

3. If he is, then we have the one in three, less desirable situation.

So, it's my argument (and please correct my logic if it's wrong) that we should not lynch FLoC at this point, because he's trapped by his own claim. If it's an honest claim, then FLoC is a target like the rest of us, but pete d will be safe for one more night. But even if it's a dishonest claim, FLoC is bound by it to protect pete d (someone who is as close to a confirmed townie as I think possible), or he outs himself as scum.

That seems to me to be a big advantage for town, to be choosing between one of two suspects with a confirmed townie, rather than one of three, at endgame.

I personally think the best play is to vote Samruc. (As a note, Samruc was voting for hand banana and then FLoC before any doc claim.) I think there's a solid chance he might be the godfather. Samruc has tunnelled on FLoC for a long while, and tried his best to deflect the town from voting for YagamiLight despite the fact that it was clearly the best play at that time, and YagamiLight did turn out to be scum.

As always, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Nanosauromo]

Just to clear this up:
Me = Cop
FLOC = Doc
pete d = mason
Bookitty = unclaimed
Samruc = unclaimed

If this is true, then...

Boo, you said that pete d will likely be NK'd tonight if the person we lynch is town. Why is he a more likely target than anyone else?

[Bookitty]

Because he's confirmed, and the rest of us are not.

You claim to be the cop, FLoC claims to be the Doc, Samruc and I haven't claimed. But pete d was part of a two-man mason team, one of which is dead, and thus his status is virtually confirmed -- as close as I think you can get, really. So if the scum leaves pete d alive, then town has a fifty-fifty shot at winning. If they kill him, it's one in three. (Of course, we have other evidence to go on, but this is strictly mathematical odds -- so please correct me if I'm wrong.)

I could be wrong, but that's what I think likely.

[Nanosauromo]

But with his partner dead, pete d is essentially a vanilla townie.

In the case of confirmed townie vs. claimed Doc, the Doc is more likely to prevent the scum from winning. (This assumes that FLOC is town.)

If the scum is one of the unclaimed, then me, pete d, and the other unclaimed have equal odds of being killed, with FLOC having slightly higher odds.

[Bookitty]

There's no way we could prevent the Doc from being killed, though, if it's a true claim. It's true that pete d has no special abilities, other than being the only confirmed townie, but that's huge in a three person end game. That's why I think he'd be the logical target, more so than FLoC.

Also, your logic would have been true last night as well, but FLoC wasn't killed then. They went for Setael, who was only mostly confirmed. That tends to bear out my logic, I think.

Incidentally, FLoC, who did you protect last night? I apologise if you said, and I missed it.

[Nanosauromo]

To the one remaining scum, EVERYONE is confirmed town. If he goes after pete d, there's a possibility that FLOC could protect him. However, the doc can't protect himself, so if FLOC gets targeted, he's dead for sure. If I were scum, then I would definately pick FLOC over pete d for my kill.

[Bookitty]

The question isn't what the scum can confirm, Nano. The question is what town can confirm.

If you had to choose who is town between ANYONE else and pete d, who would you pick? That's why we HAVE to protect pete d, and that's why we NEED to leave FLoC alive, regardless of who else we choose to lynch, because this gives us a much better chance of choosing right tomorrow, assuming we don't make the right choice today. (I remain hopeful that by lynching Samruc we'll win tonight.)

Here are the two scenarios (assuming a mislynch today), if we leave FLoC alive and ask him to protect pete d:

• 1. FLoC is scum, but can't kill pete d, because that would blow his cover as the doctor, so we go into tomorrow with one confirmed town and two unconfirmed people left. That gives us fifty fifty odds of picking right, and we'd be trusting pete d to choose correctly.
  
  2. FLoC is the doctor, and is either killed or left alive, but we STILL go into tomorrow with one confirmed town and two unconfirmed people left. Still fifty fifty odds.

If we go any other way, we're left with one in three odds assuming pete d is killed. So I really don't think killing FLoC over killing pete d is more advantageous to scum.

If you see any mistakes, please point them out. I think my calculation of the odds is correct, though.

[Nocmen]

Vote Count!

Not Voting - 5 (FLoC, pete d, Bookitty, Samruc, Nanosauromo)

[Nanosauromo]

We're not going to get anywhere with just the two of us arguing. pete d, FLOC, what do you guys think?

[Samruc]

Actually Bookitty is correct. Lynching FLoC is not the play for today, for two reasons. The first one is already mentioned; that in case of a mislynch we will still have a guaranteed townie in the endgame.

The second reason is that the chances of FLoC being scum is slightly lowered (in my opinion) after finding out that Yagami was scum. Nano seems like a more probable partner. (At some point during D3, I even had a slight feeling that Bookitty might have been FLoC's partner with the way she opposed to what was "clearly the best lynch" in my eyes...)

I think he was counting on you investigating him as the godfather.

What makes you think so? I could have been counting on it if I as godfather had *bussed* Yagami, but if I managed to lynch FLoC I should have counted on Yagami being investigated, right? Which actually makes more sense, because then I could have chosen not to "believe" Nano...

***
So who is the lynch today? Since I don't believe in lynching FLoC, I can't just put on the auotpilot anymore... but of course pete d is out of question, and I obviously don't want to lynch myself.

I am still of the opinion that one of the claims is false, as I don't suspect Bookitty much. This means I will probably vote Nano. But there is one important difference from yesterday - now at least one of the claims have to *true* (counting on there only being one scum left).

The question is, could we gain info from letting Nano live? By lynching Bookitty, we could get into a scenario where everyone has been investigated and/or mason confirmed, which might give us something more to go on. The problem is, since we don't know how to treat Nano's results, I'm not sure if this will be of any advantage.

Since this might come down to how pete will act in the endgame, I am very interested in hearing what he thinks about this.

[pete d]

First of all, I don't want to comment much in regards to FLoC before he posts something.

The question is, could we gain info from letting Nano live? By lynching Bookitty, we could get into a scenario where everyone has been investigated and/or mason confirmed, which might give us something more to go on. The problem is, since we don't know how to treat Nano's results, I'm not sure if this will be of any advantage.

No, if you trust Nano's results, you've already made the decision that he's town, so you'll lynch the other guy in a 3-person endgame. Hence any new investigations are irrelevant, he could just as easily make it up if he's scum. Thinking about lynching Bookitty when you just said you think she's town is stupid; we are trying to lynch the last scum, and that is all. Basically, we can choose two people out of the remaining five to lynch, whatever logical spin you put on it. If one of them is the scum, we win.

Anyhow, I'll wait for FLoC to comment before I say anything more.

[Faeren Lord of Carlisle]

I protected pete/tcs last night, as he's the only truly confirmed person. For me, today we either lynch boo or samruc. I'm inclined to say boo. Here's why; everyone else has some sort of confirmation, be it the mason, the cop, the investigatee, or myself. I'm inclined to believe nano, because to claim cop after a doc, a mason pair, and a town roleblocker went down would be really dumb as scum. This would clear samruc, but there's the possibility of a gf. So then there's samruc or boo. I want to say boo, cuz if we kill boo, then we either win, or have a game of guess who's lying, which in a 3-man game is a lot easier than in a 5-man game.

[pete d]

To say Samruc has been cleared is wrong. The possibility of a GF is quite significant at this stage. And to suggest lynching boo purely based on process of elimination and getting it down to a 3man game (which will happen anyway, wth), makes absolutely no sense.

I suggest actually looking at people's behaviour and deciding who is scummy. As for today, if we're leaving FLoC alive for tomorrow and he's protecting me tonight, we're left with Nano, boo and Samruc. Personally, I'm leaning Samruc, based on the Yagami wagon (Nano was voting Yagami early and stuck to it, bookitty also was actively part of the wagon). Thoughts?

[Faeren Lord of Carlisle]

That's the flaw in my logic; how pro-town boo has been. The possibility of samruc being the gf is definately there, and I still haven't gotten around to my reread on the subject, but I think that will be of use.

[Samruc]

Vote: Nano

Discuss...

[pete d]

No reasons for vote = Not helpful

[Samruc]

So who is the lynch today? Since I don't believe in lynching FLoC, I can't just put on the auotpilot anymore... but of course pete d is out of question, and I obviously don't want to lynch myself.

I am still of the opinion that one of the claims is false, as I don't suspect Bookitty much. This means I will probably vote Nano.

There is not much more to say, really. My top suspect is still FLoC, but keeping him alive means you will make it till endgame, and there *is* a reasonable chance Nano is scum.

[Bookitty]

I intend to vote for Samruc, I think. I want one more reread before I place my vote, but I think that's where it's going to land.

Clearly I will not vote for pete d. I won't vote for FLoC for reasons already explained. I will not vote for myself.

I am left with a choice between Nanosauromo and Samruc. If Nanosauromo is a cop, then either FLoC is scum, or Samruc is the godfather. Samruc fought against the YagamiLight lynch fairly hard, and while it's surely possible that town would defend someone they thought to be innocent, scum has a much stronger reason for wanting to defend scum.

Nanosauromo's gambit of claiming cop would have been a risky one for scum, as was FLoC's... and the lack of counterclaims makes them more believable as time goes on. On the other hand Samruc (and myself) both have not claimed. Samruc has an innocent from Nano, but I believe they can't be both be scum (I think we likely have only one scum left). The lack of counterclaim, along with Samruc's attempt to deflect from someone now known scum, makes me believe that Samruc may well be the godfather.

[Faeren Lord of Carlisle]

I'm going to go ahead and commit to

vote samruc

. I think he's the godfather, and thus this is my only choice.

[Bookitty]

After my reread, I still remain convinced that Samruc is the right choice.

unvote; vote Samruc

[Nocmen]

Vote Count!

Samruc - 2(FLoC, Bookitty)
Nanosauromo - 1(Samruc)

Not Voting - 2 ( pete d, Nanosauromo)

3 To lynch!

Also, note that I am pretty much not going to be here until Sunday Night. I will be on for about 2-3 hours more, and then maybe an hour or two tomorrow night at the most. If not on tomorrow, I'll see you all on sundayu

[pete d]

Well, Nano's not going to vote himself, so I may as well go ahead and

vote: Samruc

.
Remember FLoC: If we go to night, you HAVE to protect me.

[Nocmen]

ote Count!

Samruc - 3(FLoC, Bookitty, pete d)
Nanosauromo - 1(Samruc)

Not Voting - 1 ( Nanosauromo)

3 To lynch!

WAIT! THAT IS THREE!

You rush and grab Samruc by the neck, and quickly tie a rope around him. After a few minutes of his kicking and flailing, he stops, allowing you to search his pockets.

Samruc,

Townie

,

Lynched Day 4

It is now Night 4. Get all choices in ASAP. Deadline for Night is 10PM on Monday, November 19th, or possibly sooner.

[Nocmen]

You wake up to find things...well...normal. Ish.

4 are still alive, no one died overnight.

4 alive, 3 to lynch!

[Bookitty]

In light of this unexpected development, FLoC, who did you protect last night? And Nano, what were your results on your investigation?