Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Jitsu]

@Gunslinger: You have promised some content. I would like to see it.


@Satael: What do you have to say about the game? As I promised everyone else, I'm not going to ask you about what your predecessor did, but I still want to hear your own thoughts on the game.


@Adel: How many games have you collected data on? Also, why did you not just do your analysis secretly and not even tell anyone here about your numerical models? You could have gotten your result, untainted, when Korlash's role was finally known, without any risk of shifting the meta.

You have given some reasons for your suspicion of Korlash and Sudo, and now recently some on Jerub and Miztef. I will likely have more to say on that later, but for now, what are the reasons behind your suspicion of Abstract? Also, what is your opinion on Gunslinger?


@Miztef:

I'm still happy with my vote on Korlash, this day just needs to end anyway. I will make a good argument if need be, but I think everyone just wants this day to end, so I see no point in wasting the effort.

I don't just want this day to end. You seem to be saying that you would present your case if people asked you for it. I am asking for it. Make your argument.

[Adel]

@Adel: How many games have you collected data on?

more than one hundred; less than one thousand

Also, why did you not just do your analysis secretly and not even tell anyone here about your numerical models? You could have gotten your result, untainted, when Korlash's role was finally known, without any risk of shifting the meta.

I would like to encourage other people to build similarly systematic methods of hunting scum. It would shift the meta in a pro-town direction, yielding more won games for all.

You have given some reasons for your suspicion of Korlash and Sudo, and now recently some on Jerub and Miztef. I will likely have more to say on that later, but for now, what are the reasons behind your suspicion of Abstract?

no comment

Also, what is your opinion on Gunslinger?

no comment

[Korlash]

no comment

*Sigh* I kinda figured that was coming... And while I get your whole "meta" thing as to why you are doing this, the way you are playing is just kinda... taking the fun out of the game...

[Sudo_Nym]

so I hope my vote against him (if he turns out scum) will be seen as a townie move.

This sticks out at me like a sore thumb. Seems like you unvoted to try and remove some momentum from your scumbuddy, then jump back on so you'll be on the record as having lynched a scummy (which I believe is called distancing). I'm now very comfortable with my vote as is.

[Adel]

no comment

*Sigh* I kinda figured that was coming... And while I get your whole "meta" thing as to why you are doing this, the way you are playing is just kinda... taking the fun out of the game...

and I'll take

that

as an admission of guilt.

I told you a couple of times you shouldn't type so much.

[Korlash]

This sticks out at me like a sore thumb. Seems like you unvoted to try and remove some momentum from your scumbuddy, then jump back on so you'll be on the record as having lynched a scummy (which I believe is called distancing). I'm now very comfortable with my vote as is.

... *sighs*

If I do get lynched I hope you guys notice things like this...

And this:

and I'll take that as an admission of guilt.

I told you a couple of times you shouldn't type so much.

How is that an admission of guilt?

[Miztef]

@korlash: That was just a typing mistake on my part. As defence for my eariler action of unvoting you, in my experience, mafia roleblockers are rare. However, adel seems to know what he is talking about, and no one has disagreed with him, therefore, I revoted you because that knowledge of mine was incorrect.

@jitsu: I can't guarantee I will state my case, but I have been saying parts of it as the arguments have continued. My problem with stating the case is that my scumtells are different then others, as adel has pointed out, having your own system of identifying scum is quite important for proper play. I may present the case soon if I feel like it though, right now it's midnight where I am, so I don't have the time.

[Korlash]

@korlash: That was just a typing mistake on my part. As defence for my eariler action of unvoting you, in my experience, mafia roleblockers are rare. However, adel seems to know what he is talking about, and no one has disagreed with him, therefore, I revoted you because that knowledge of mine was incorrect.

Well logically no one can disagree with her because she has not actually said "anything." Or that is how I see it. I may be missing it because I am the one she is attacking but honestly all I see is her saying "I know what I am doing Vote: So and so." If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...

[Adel]

If it were anyone else I would argue she was "bussing" but I know that is not the case.. weird...

This is what I call a

WIFOM trap

. Scum, expecting to die by lynch, attempts to connect himself to a towie, to cast some amount of later suspicion on that townie.
He wants to plant the seed of the idea that I am a scumbuddy of his that is in the process of throwing him under the bus.

[Jitsu]

@jitsu: I can't guarantee I will state my case, but I have been saying parts of it as the arguments have continued. My problem with stating the case is that my scumtells are different then others, as adel has pointed out, having your own system of identifying scum is quite important for proper play. I may present the case soon if I feel like it though, right now it's midnight where I am, so I don't have the time.

I don't care if your scumtells are different than others. You said you would present your case if asked. I'm asking. I'm willing to wait.

[Jitsu]

However, adel seems to know what he is talking about, and no one has disagreed with him, therefore, I revoted you because that knowledge of mine was incorrect.

You shouldn't assume that people agree with someone just because they fail to disagree with them. I've found that what people don't say can sometimes be just as valuable as what they do say.

[Mexal]

I can see Korlash as scum. His posts are completely nonsensical.

Basically, at this point I'm willing to vote Miztef, Anata and Korlash.

I'm getting really bored.

[curiouskarmadog]

I'm getting really bored.

so?

[Mexal]

Oh and for the record, this game started almost a month ago. That's absolutely ridiculous considering there is no concrete evidence.

[Abstract Actuary]

There is no concrete evidence because we are still on day 1. From my experience there is never any concrete evidence on day 1. All we have are "scumtells" and gut feelings.

I still think Miztef is our best choice for the day. I'd still like to hear from the other replacement before finishing the day (and preferably get and here from the third replacement).

Adel, I can completely buy into patterns you can pick up from post count, post length and most, most, most importantly the trail of voting record and FoS's etc., but all of those things don't become significant (in my mind) until at least day 2 when we begin to learn some allegiances. And I still don't think they become great, hard evidence until we've lynched a mafia member. So, especially without an explanation I can't follow your lead at this point. I admit that Korlash has posted a lot, and a lot of crap, but he seems to readily admit that that is how he always plays. In my experience mafia members tend not to play that way on day 1.

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

[Abstract Actuary]

Vote Count as of Post 593

Korlash (3):

GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym

Miztef (2):

curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal

Anata112 (2):

Jitsu, Miztef

Adel (1):

Korlash

Not Voting (4):

Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo, Miztef

12 alive, 7 will lynch.

(Korlash remains red despite Miztef's unvote)

I think you removed Mexal's vote instead of Miztef's for his unvote. Or you had Miztef listed twice instead of Mexal. I think Mexal still has an active vote on Miztef.

[Jitsu]

I believe the vote count should be:

Korlash (3): GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym
Miztef (3): curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal
Anata112 (2): Jitsu, Miztef
Adel (1): Korlash

Not Voting (3): Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo

with Miztef in red (he was at three votes first)

[Abstract Actuary]

I believe the vote count should be:

Korlash (3): GunglingerKB, Adel, Sudo_Nym
Miztef (3): curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal
Anata112 (2): Jitsu, Miztef
Adel (1): Korlash

Not Voting (3): Satael, Abstract Actuary, oEJo

with Miztef in red (he was at three votes first)

Miztef unvoted, otherwise I agree. Also Anata112 is now Satael.

[Jitsu]

Korlash's low signal to noise ratio and his premature claim are highly scummy to be sure. On Day 1, this itself is probably enough for a lynch, but I can't put a vote on him right now because I have this nagging feeling that he's innocent.

I am still making up my mind about some things. That's why I want Miztef's case and why I want Setael's thoughts.

[jerubbaal]

jerubbaal caught on that there may be some real muscle behind my system, and is now distancing from both the Miztef and the Korlash wagons.

I'm slightly hazy on how the comments I made in those posts can be construed as "distancing." I can respect your stats thing (even if you won't really share it), but your prowess does not put you beyond reproach. Distortion is still distortion.

I think you're right about Miztef, it's been my contention for most of day 1, and it seems very possible that you're right about Korlash, considering his reaction. My position on Miztef has been consistent all game, I see no reason to change here, and Korlash has been frantically posting fluff since you've accused him. I

do

think there's some muscle behind your system, but I know that it's not infallible. For now, I'm comfortable taking your confirmation of my suspicions of Miztef and leaving my vote where I think it is the strongest.

[Adel]

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

I could choose to ignore a question, evade it, or answer it in bad faith- instead I reply with "no comment". I admot it isn't the perfect solution, but I consider it superior to the alternatives.

[Abstract Actuary]

Most importantly, I know you don't want to reveal the secrets to your methods, but "no comment" is not an acceptable answer to people's questions. If someone asked me a question (or Korlash or a number of other players) and they responded "no comment" the rest of the town would jump all over them.

I could choose to ignore a question, evade it, or answer it in bad faith- instead I reply with "no comment". I admot it isn't the perfect solution, but I consider it superior to the alternatives.

I agree that "no comment" is better than the alternatives you listed. It still seems to me that anything from that list would be deemed scummy if Korlash did it.

[Adel]

Point taken, however, if that was only scummy thing Korlash did, my vote would not be on him.

[Jitsu]

Jerub, have you done any meta-work on Korlash?

[jerubbaal]

Only very summary. I believe he has two completed games on record, in which he was once scum and once town. Honestly, he acts like quite the donk in both of them. His noise/content ratio seems to be naturally crappy. He's one of those players about whom I never quite know what to think, because it seems like he can't really think straight.