Newbie 478: (Game Over)

[bird1111]

Vote Count:
Not voting: (5): joost, SuperMarioSunshine, HackerHuck, OppresedForce, TheHermit.

With 5 alive it is 3 to lynch.

Looking for a Super Mario Sunshine replacement, deadline will be extended if I do not find one by Tuesday.

[bird1111]

SensFan replaces SuperMarioSunshine

[TheHermit]

Welcome, SensFan!

Perhaps you can help us out of this jam we seem to have gotten ourselves into? We only have a couple days before the deadline, and I don't think anyone's acted scummy enough to be confident with a vote...

[SensFan]

Hi all!

I'll do a read, and post something within soon, I hope!

[SensFan]

Alright, having done a quick read, my thoughts on each player, and a question for each of you:

Joost: Seems suspicious. Things he has said seem slightly off, as if he is choosing his words very carefully, to avoid slipping up. Betty or Veronica, and why?

SensFan: I am getting very pro-town vibes from him. He is very alert, and is obviously one to be listened to. Why are you so amazingly pro-town?

HackerHuck: Seems very solid player. He looks to be genuinely looking to help the town, and is not very suspicious. You got a free, public investigation, who and why?

OppresedForce: EXTREMELY SCUMMY. He committed the number 1 faux-pas by voting in Day 2 LyLo. I would vote him, but that would make me a hypocrite. Why do you like Neil Young?

TheHermit: Actually, I don't remember a single post by him, other than to welcome me. Please post more info. If you had to kill one person right now, who would it be, and why?

[TheHermit]

OppresedForce: EXTREMELY SCUMMY. He committed the number 1 faux-pas by voting in Day 2 LyLo.

We've gone over this for most of page 6. It was a poor move, but not necessarily a scummy one. At least, *I* don't think it's the blatantly scummy move that you and joost seem to think it is.

TheHermit: Actually, I don't remember a single post by him, other than to welcome me. Please post more info. If you had to kill one person right now, who would it be, and why?

I posted at least two or three times on page 6... how close are you reading? I'm not sure what the point of asking each of us different questions is, but I guess I can play along.

I posted my suspicion list on page 6, and your last post didn't do much to change my opinion. People who analyze themselves solely to brag about how pro-town they are have a tendency to be scum more often than not, I've noticed. Call it a weak tell. I think you and joost are the two most suspicious characters in this group.

If I

could

kill someone right now I wouldn't kill anyone; I'm not certain enough in my suspicions to knock off any single player free from the worry that I would give the game to the scum. It's too dangerous to kill any particular player at this point. But, if you rephrased the question to "if you

had

to kill any other player right now" (which I think is the question you really wanted to ask), it would probably be the person I'm most suspicious of, joost.

His Day 1 play is terrible. After HH's vote has already been explained to be a trap, he ignores all the signs and pushes for a HH lynch. He then votes IH for not answering a question... fine, but he doesn't remove his vote until it's explicitly pointed out that he has no basis for his vote. He then hammers Aman, a totally safe move since HH (who he thinks is scum) has already pointed out that the day is drawing to a close. What luck! He gets to off a townie and avoid all responsibility for it! Then on Day 2 he pushes hard for a lynch of OF for a weak tell. Scum that's trying too hard? I'm not too engendered toward him. You will notice, however, despite this evidence it really only adds up to what I consider weak tells. So I'm not confident enough to vote for him just yet, and wouldn't kill him unless I absolutely HAD to. There's also the additional problem of, "If he's the scum, who's his partner?". Yes, I'm also suspicious of SensFan/SMS. The problem is that the "connection" between them isn't particularly strong or weak... I admit this makes me a bit uneasy. It might mean that one of you is scum and the other is not... but then, which one? And where is their partner hiding?

[joost]

His Day 1 play is terrible. After HH's vote has already been explained to be a trap, he ignores all the signs and pushes for a HH lynch. He then votes IH for not answering a question... fine, but he doesn't remove his vote until it's explicitly pointed out that he has no basis for his vote. He then hammers Aman, a totally safe move since HH (who he thinks is scum) has already pointed out that the day is drawing to a close. What luck! He gets to off a townie and avoid all responsibility for it! Then on Day 2 he pushes hard for a lynch of OF for a weak tell. Scum that's trying too hard? I'm not too engendered toward him.

I think the whole town played badly on day 1, there wasn't really much to go on at the time of the lynch. We didn't post enough to avoid the deadline and when the deadline arrived all we had were a few scum tells from a poor newbie townie.

When I voted for HH on day 1 it was to get some discussion going. We were more or less getting out of the random stage and I felt it might be a good idea to start a discussion about his tactics. I think HH has been playing like an IC is supposed to, which is good. I wasn't suspicious of him until after he decided to defend OF, who did exactly what HH told us NOT to do. The fact that he warned us not to be rash, but defended someone who was, makes me more suspicious of him than of TheHermit, for instance.

[HackerHuck]

HackerHuck: Seems very solid player. He looks to be genuinely looking to help the town, and is not very suspicious. You got a free, public investigation, who and why?

What exactly does that mean?

I'm seriously considering a vote for Joost right now. I'm not sold on his behaviour day one and I really don't like how he's so gung ho on Opposed Force, even after I mention that it's not pro-town play, but it's also not something that scum would have reason to do.

[joost]

Don't lynch me, I'm the doctor.

I protected HackerHuck night 1 because I figured the scum would try to kill an IC. I was right about that but I picked the wrong IC.

[TheHermit]

Doctor claim = safest claim for a mafia to make. Most people are reluctant to lynch a doctor because they are a very strong pro-town role. This is especially true in newbie games, because there's a 50% chance that there isn't a REAL doctor around to counterclaim! Of course, he might be telling the truth... in which case lynching him will lose us the game. Hm. I think this has only served to muddy the waters instead of clearing them.

[bird1111]

Deadline in slightly less than 8 hours.

[joost]

Ok we need to lynch someone soon. I am in favor of an OpposedForce lynch.

[joost]

Vote: OpposedForce

If we don't lynch, we lose.

[bird1111]

You all can't decide on a target before, though several hours of no conversation doesn't help you any. Luckily for you all, the town still has a chance this game.

Night 2 begins, choices due Saturday@7:44 PM EST

[bird1111]

You wake up, meet at the town square like usual only to find that one of you is missing. You quickly realize it was joost. Fearing the worst, you check his house. You see a whole bunch of doctor's equipment, and pieces of what must have been joost scattered around. Suddenly, OppresedForce and TheHermit shoot HackerHuck and SensFan, and take over the town.

joost, Doctor, killed night 2
HackerHuck, Townie, endgamed
SensFan, Townie, endgamed

OpposedForce and TheHermit, Mafia, win!

[bird1111]

Alive, bold unconfirmed:
TheHermet, replacing zackbeard, replacing booboodafool
OpposedForce

Dead:
Aman, Townie, lynched Day 1
IH, Townie, killed Night 1
joost, Doctor, killed Night 2
SensFan, replacing SuperMarioSunshine, replacing toolenduso, Townie, endgamed
HackerHuck, Townie, endgamed

[bird1111]

joost protected HackerHuck and SensFan.

Mafia's choices are obvious.

[TheHermit]

All too easy.

Replacing late into Day 2, my strategy was to spread not disinformation, but uncertainty. Rather than take any strong stands, I simply played up my "indecision" until it infected the rest of the town into paralysis. Despite this, I'm not all that proud of this victory. I got the feeling that town kinda threw the game in the closing days, with few posts and no serious scumhunting.

[joost]

Yeah I agree. We screwed up as town.

[TheHermit]

Also, one thing I wanted to discuss here; OF wanted to kill SensFan on Night 2. In the interests of being educational (since most of the in-game chatter talks about good town strategy more than good scum strategy), I want to explain to everyone why this was not the best play. Don't worry, it won't take long.

If a townie claims doctor and is not counterclaimed, scum should kill him immediately because a skilled doctor can eliminate the scum's kill at night, the most powerful tool in their arsenal. In addition to stopping a kill, if the doctor protects someone and there is no nightkill he can be reasonably certain that the person he protected is a townie. Newbie 457 came to an end precisely in this way, with the doctor being able to finger the scum with 100% certainty because everyone left was either himself, a person he had protected on a night with no kill, or scum. This is especially true in any Open setup that explicitly states there is only one doctor who cannot protect himself. Either he's a lying townie with no powers, or it's a doctor who can defend anyone except himself. It's a guaranteed kill! This made my scumpartner's objection to killing joost particularly bizarre. Why go for a possible blocked kill, not only dragging the game out another day but creating a confirmed innocent, when we could simply kill the claimed doctor and win? Even if it were not a game-ending situation, the same reasoning applies.

The same rule applies in mafia as it does in RPGs. Shoot the doctor

first

.

[IH]

Wait if I was protected, why did I die?

[bird1111]

HackerHuck was protected, not you.

Fixed the post to correct this.

[Mr. Flay]

The same rule applies in mafia as it does in RPGs. Shoot the doctor

first

.

I love this quote, and agree wholeheartedly. Cops can be lying townies, but the Doc's effect is more-or-less mod-confirmed, since there's almost never a strategic reason to no-kill.

[IH]

<.<; well if there's an uneven number odd, and you can contend with not being able to speed lynch, it is.

[joost]

I guess in hindsight I shouldn't have claimed. It was pretty close to the deadline (I forgot that) and chances were that there wouldn't a no-lynch at deadline. That way I could have prevented a night kill and I could claim on day 3. But I was worried I would get lynched before the deadline seeing that OF, HH and TheHermit were ready to lynch me.

Thanks for modding Bird1111