Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Miztef]

I'm still struggling a lot with the korlash vote. I want to believe he is scum, but I'm just not sure. I've already voted/unvoted/voted him, but I'm gonna have to

unvote

again. He did claim roleblocker, and no matter what the statistics say, I'm gonna believe him for now.

I noticed Gunslinger and Sudo are both on the Korlash wagon as well. To me, this makes them suspicious. I know I was just on the wagon, but I've been deeply struggling with it, where as those 2 just plopped on and were done with it.

I'm going to wait for anata's replacement to post before I actually consider voting her for now, We can always get her/him another day anyway, there are more productive people to go after for now. (I am not saying setael shouldn't post soon, I'm just saying I'm gonna give him a chance before I jump on his case).

Right now, I think I'm happy going back after good ole

GunslingerKB

[Miztef]

I didn't know setael was female. I will keep this is mind for the future. Sorry.

[Korlash]

I don't know if Anata abandoning the game is a scum tell or a just a newb tell- mafia is far less fun for most people when there is a wagon on you. Role and alignment doesn't change that much.

I don't know... I personally think that is when it gets really fun! It all comes down to how good you are at convincing people you are right and others are wrong, and if you are mafia, it comes down to how good you can lie! Then you get into other things, how long can you keep your "role" hidden. (Vanilla, mafa, powerrole, Sk, etc...) How can you come back from a crushing blow, what kind of defenses can you come up with on a moments notice, how good you are at throwing other's attacks back at them!

=D It's like a day at the beach... if all your friends wanted you dead and you had a laptop with you!

Mr. Flay: in the newbie games you can recall, and on a percentage basis, who is more likely to drop out of a game on day 1: a town-aligned player with a wagon, or a scum-aligned player with a wagon?

I find it odd that people base their suspicions or what not on what OTHER people may or may not do. I can see how meta can become useful, but I don't see how you can justify holding anyone to meta you saw other people do. And this is also where "scumtells" and what not come in. I figured with two of the more... um... well known... *cough* players here I can get a little insight into this. Nothing to do with the game really, but I feel it may better my understanding for future games.

I noticed Gunslinger and Sudo are both on the Korlash wagon as well. To me, this makes them suspicious. I know I was just on the wagon, but I've been deeply struggling with it, where as those 2 just plopped on and were done with it.

Gunslinger's vote was on me wayyyy before this wagon formed so you cannot say he "Plopped" on it and were done. Sure he has done a few things I thought were weird, and I called him out on it, and his defense is he is "new." And while I myself would like to get more out of him I find your reason's for voting him should have garnered a Sudo vote instead....

Personally I think Sudo has issues... Probably wants to undistance himself from me after that massclaim scandal. Which would indicate he is afraid I am scum, which means he would be most likely town. Hmmm.. Interesting...

As for you... I find it likely you are panicky that you had such a bad bandwagon as I did on yourself, and even after all this it is still there. I feel your trying to get any attention you can off yourself, including the attention you garner from your vote on me. But seeing as how I myself in a sense "Buckled under pressure" or some form of the phrase, I can see you as an afraid towny just as much as a worried mafia. So for now, eh... Go ahead and pressure Gunslinger.. like I said I would like to know how he reacts to people looking harder at him. I just feel for him you need to "Present a case" or else he will just say he is new blah blah blah end of story...

How is that for a worthless fluff post people? Huh huh? What? Yeah thats right, get out of my face... Go eat some candy or something.. have an icicle on me... lemon flavored...

I didn't know setael was female. I will keep this is mind for the future. Sorry.

I said the same thing about Adel the first game I was in with her... >< Gender gets confusing sometimes...

[GunslingerKB]

Mitzef, I do not believe that I "plopped" on it. I stated that him coming after me the way he did was because it seemed that he may have been trying to protect anata. Im pretty sure thats how I said it.

And I guess,

unvote:Korlash

: seeing as he claimed roleblocker. But keep in mind that he didn't say he was town.

[Adel]

I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.

[Adel]

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later, after Mr. Flay, Satael, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal chime in.

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##### End encrypted message

have fun!

[Setael]

I'm only up to p. 15 but I want to post what I have thus far so I get it in before the deadline.

Abstract Actuary sounded town in post 79, but then post 99 is weird – how could he not think Jitsu in post 40 was trying to look town? 229 I wanna feel is town, but could see scum typing this to look town. Says he wants “everyone's opinion and gut feelings on everything and everyone” when he hasn't provided that himself. (Mexal calls him out on it in 230) 236 super wishy washy “To be honest, I haven't got much of a scum read on anyone at this point.” Still saying everyone should present suspicions without bothering to do it himself.

Sudo_Nym's posts 69, 145 and 292 are all scummy – defends both korlash and mexal, planting one foot firmly on each side of the fence.

Jitsu’s points against Anata seem sound, as the reasons she gave for suspecting him were pretty hollow. The other 2 votes on her just looked like pressure. Then she never really responded to Jitsu, maybe because she didn’t have a response that wouldn’t look scummy. If she had a better case, she'd have presented it in the first place so all she really could've said was "You're right, my case was crap" or "I was lazy and just picked a gut feeling on someone to present a half-assed case on". Anything she could’ve said would’ve looked like backtracking.

curiouskarmadog– post 81 looked town, post 298 was really odd timing to say he has no problem with anata. Looks like he knows anata would come up town; 304 says anata is just lazy. Though I agree with him that this is probably the main reason for her subpar posts, it’s odd that ckd disregards the other reasons for the anata votes (namely, that she didn’t respond to jitsu). Mexal jumps on this and the next several posts ckd is forced to explain why he disagrees about anata. Seems like his aim was just to post that he didn’t think she was scum and let it go, but then Mexal didn’t let him get away with it. Says he doesn’t think mexal is reading the thread. That’s outright ridiculous. Mexal points out that ckd is defending anata. It’s not bussing (since I’m not scum) and in fact, would scum really defend a buddy THIS obviously? Rather, it looks like ckd KNOWS anata would come up town and defended her to get townie points if she ended up mislynched. I don’t think he expected mexal to call him on it and push him the way he did.

On another note, this is why I don’t think Mexal is reading this game either. He asked me why I thought Anata was lazy (even inquired where I got that idea), but agreed entirely with Jitsu’s post even voted. If you actually read Jitsu’s post, you would know where and why I thought people basically just think Anata is lazy.

imo this statement is more contrived and skewed than anything anata ever came up with.

Also weird that jerubbaal says he doesn’t like the Miztef vote on ckd without going further into it. Does he think Miztef is bussing ckd, or does he really see nothing wrong with ckd’s Anata defense?

Korlash's defense of sudo felt off. Long-winded responses/defense. Due to his playstyle, he will likely be lynched before too long, even though he’s probably just a townie who likes to be the center of attention. Attacks Mexal for adding a vote to Anata wagon without giving a reason. Mexal's vote looked like an obvious pressure vote - odd that korlash wouldn't let it go as a pressure vote. Also odd that he focused on Mexal when Jerubbaal did the same thing with his anata vote. Sudo pipes in that he has no problem with korlash attacking mexal for his anata vote. This seems off, as though Sudo is just trying to be agreeable and picked something to agree with that really wasn't that town.

Jitsu's post 40 was awfully early for this type of analysis posts. Trying too hard to look town. Seems like it worked pretty well for him since nearly every player called him town for it. 179 directs the cop which if not scummy is anti town; 249 seems to intentionally misunderstand sudo; 279 warning to “Be careful” looks scummy - can't tell if he's just warning korlash or if he's trying to deflect from mexal, but it definitely seems like he had a motive; 302 says his scum list matches mexal’s. Odd that he’s forgotten sudo when he was attacking him not long before.

oEJo (now Flay) - 82 seems town on the surface, but the only person he’s voiced suspicioun of is miztef. Then in post 260 this scummy little gem:

This is... blah. I am basically getting a town read from everyone. Well done, scum.

Flay suspicious of Anata and therefore voting me. Can't say I blame him since my predecessor's posts left much to be desired. The most likely explanation (based on the fact that she was town) is that she recognized she'd played terribly and wasn't going to be able to dig herself out. She'd look scummy all game and eventually be mislynched. So lucky me, I get to inherit that role. Yes, her posts were meh. No, she wasn't scum.

Miztef's 129 and 210 are scummy – bad reasons for his scum list

GunslingerKB - 181 protown – finally someone pointing out jitsu’s attempt to look protown, 223 apologizes for sloppy play, vows to do better

Mexal– 132 good sudonym points, but seems to be assuming korlash is town; a few people say they think mexal looks the most town. Seems like it's being too widely accepted that Mexal and Jerubbaal are obvTown.

@Mexal and Jerubbaal: can you both link to your best game as scum. I've only seen Mexal as town and his arguments are always so solid that I think if he was scum I'd follow him clear to lylo and be the reason for a town loss. It might be awhile before I get around to reading these, but if I survive a few days I'll want to do so. I'll try not to go overboard with the metagaming, I just want to see if you have seemed this generally obvtown to players as scum.

[Korlash]

And I guess, unvote:Korlash: seeing as he claimed roleblocker. But keep in mind that he didn't say he was town.

Did I have too? I mean... come on it is implied...

Besides my role is just "Roleblocker" It does not say town in it.. however it does say "Pro-Town" so... yeah... I suppose I am town, but I didn't feel it was necessary to actually say it... I mean does the cop have to say "I am a town cop!" ? Does the Doc have to say "I am a town Doc!" ? No? I didn't think so...

I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.

And I'd like to see some actual analysis from you... what? Did I say that out loud? My bad... carry on...

dang you guys.. long posts... I will post back on those two in a second.. *grumbles*

[Korlash]

Korlash's defense of sudo felt off. Long-winded responses/defense. Due to his playstyle, he will likely be lynched before too long, even though he’s probably just a townie who likes to be the center of attention. Attacks Mexal for adding a vote to Anata wagon without giving a reason. Mexal's vote looked like an obvious pressure vote - odd that korlash wouldn't let it go as a pressure vote. Also odd that he focused on Mexal when Jerubbaal did the same thing with his anata vote. Sudo pipes in that he has no problem with korlash attacking mexal for his anata vote. This seems off, as though Sudo is just trying to be agreeable and picked something to agree with that really wasn't that town.

I already said why I didn't attack Jer, I will assume you haven't gotten to it yet. I don't feel like reexplaining it so I will leave that for now.

I believe I gave my feelings on pressure votes in the past, so again I don't feel like reevaluating that one.

As for not being that town, I feel I have always had the town's goal/survival/best interest whatever you want to call it at heart. And thus why I defend EVERYONE! The way I see it, if

I

can defend them.. then your attacks are pretty stupid.. come on... But if you can get past me then you probably have an ok case. I just hate to see anyone lynched for something even I coulda broke down.

It has it's flaws, but it is a playstyle I have come to accept...

but seems to be assuming korlash is town

In the same post you say:

Due to his playstyle, he will likely be lynched before too long, even though he’s probably just a townie who likes to be the center of attention.

Apparently you too are assuming I am town... Or is that not what you meant?

@Mexal and Jerubbaal:

What? You don't want to meta me? =D That doesn't put me in the center of attention so I am against it! Kidding...

@ Adel: Oh... I will break that.. I will break it so hard... and then reassemble it backwards! MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

[Mr. Flay]

Correct, I was referring to Anata112's appearance elsewhere after dropping this game (I know it's an ongoing game, but it's behavior that was going on while she still technically had the role).

Mr. Flay: in the newbie games you can recall, and on a percentage basis, who is more likely to drop out of a game on day 1: a town-aligned player with a wagon, or a scum-aligned player with a wagon?

I don't know the percentage chance on that question; luckily though this isn't a drop-and-disappear, but an actual drop-and-reappear. That's much more likely to be a scum action, as I can only really think of a handful of anecdotal cases where a pro-town player asked for replacement because of a wagon (they're much more likely to self-vote/self-hammer, on the other hand).

Maybe I'm getting old, but "Mafia Roleblocker" is a newer type of role, and not as common as some players here would like you to believe. It's true that Mafia Roleblocker is a much more purely-beneficial role for its side to have than Pro-Town Roleblocker, because the pro-town type has to deal with not blocking cops, docs, etc. Still, it's testable.

I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.

I've got more analysis from my read of the thread, but I'm going to hold my cards to my vest for right now.

[Mr. Flay]

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later, after Mr. Flay, Satael, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal chime in.

...

If I had known you were going to do that again, I wouldn't have replaced into this game. In fact, based on your behavior in Communiqué, I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

[Adel]

how about I pm the passcode to our moderator?

I'm just using the cipher to "hold my cards close to my chest", like you want to, the difference being that I won't be able to change my argument to suit my possibly scummy needs like you will be able to.

[Korlash]

um... unless one of us (i.e. other players) decodes it.. your pretty much just setting yourself up to say whatever you want later and claim you "said" it before...

or that is my opinion of it...

[Adel]

"Mafia Roleblocker" is a newer type of role, and not as common as some players here would like you to believe.

Since August 2006, Mafia roleblocker has appeared as a role 6 times in a mini-normal, while a protown roleblocker has only been used three times.

NabakovNabakov has been registered with mafiascum.net for less than a year, and has not played in any game with either type of roleblocker.

Korlash is currently a player in an ongoing game where a mafia roleblocker was lynched D2. (note: this line is very close to the boundary of talking about an ongoing game. I believe it to be a legal sentence because it is publically available information from a deathscene written by that game's moderator.

My conclusion is that NabakovNabakov is more likely to include a Mafia roleblocker than a normal roleblocker.... oh, wait. I take that back.

unvote

I'm not nearly as confident as I was before. I think I just talked myself into giving Korlash the benefit of the doubt.

[Adel]

um... unless one of us (i.e. other players) decodes it.. your pretty much just setting yourself up to say whatever you want later and claim you "said" it before...

or that is my opinion of it...

I stated that I would post the passcode after other named players posted some analysis. That means any of you will be able to go to the site and decode it to see what I encrypted.

[Sudo_Nym]

First of all, welcome Mr. Flay. Many games have we played together, this is the first you weren't modding. So this is going to be a brand new experience.

Second of all, Adel. The charts and graphs and refusal to explain himself strikes me as mixed at a personal level. On the one hand, he appears to be attempting to reduce the game to a science, a desire that I share. On the other hand, it makes it very hard to get any sort of read on him, good or scum, and as Flay said, this seems to make him think he's invincible.

And my vote remains on Korlash (but see below), because I don't really buy the roleblocker claim. Could be true; but I doubt it.

Miztef catches my eye:

I'm still struggling a lot with the korlash vote. I want to believe he is scum, but I'm just not sure. I've already voted/unvoted/voted him, but I'm gonna have to unvote again. He did claim roleblocker, and no matter what the statistics say, I'm gonna believe him for now.

Backing off Korlash only after the wagon starts to fall apart, but claims to have doubts going way back.

I noticed Gunslinger and Sudo are both on the Korlash wagon as well. To me, this makes them suspicious. I know I was just on the wagon, but I've been deeply struggling with it, where as those 2 just plopped on and were done with it.

Seriously? You accuse the two of us of just plopping down and being done with it? As Korlash already pointed out, Gunslinger was on the wagon long before it was really a wagon. And I think it's odd that you believe you get a pass for being uneasy, while the slinger and myself must be suspicious because we didn't share your angst (which I can't understand how you'd know either way).

unvote, vote Miztef

[Adel]

If I had known you were going to do that again, I wouldn't have replaced into this game. In fact, based on your behavior in Communiqué, I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

It bothers me that your post is implying that I am somehow doing something wrong. I have a 1500 gamepost record of being a highly ethical player. I turned in a scumbuddy who was attempting to cheat with me by PM in Friends and Enemies, I've used encryption twice in previous games without cheating, or being accused of cheating. Frankly, I don't care if you can't be certain that I are not communicating in a forbidden manner.

I really don't like your request that I immediately decode it

or

be replaced. There are several other possible solutions than the ones you named. The two you listed are the two most anti-town possibilities.

I'm starting to think you are scum attempting to eliminate me from the game, or at least seriously undermine my influence on other players.

[Adel]

Also, my sig line is a MeMe quote, from Communique Mafia, the game she moderated and I presented my highly complicated but very pro-town mass encryption scheme. Mr. Flay writes, "If I had known you were going to do that again" could also be read as "if I knew that I ws going to be scum against you where you pulled out more of your townie tricks"...

[Mexal]

It bothers me that your post is implying that I am somehow doing something wrong. I have a 1500 gamepost record of being a highly ethical player. I turned in a scumbuddy who was attempting to cheat with me by PM in Friends and Enemies, I've used encryption twice in previous games without cheating, or being accused of cheating. Frankly, I don't care if you can't be certain that I are not communicating in a forbidden manner.

I really don't like your request that I immediately decode it

or

be replaced. There are several other possible solutions than the ones you named. The two you listed are the two most anti-town possibilities.

I'm starting to think you are scum attempting to eliminate me from the game, or at least seriously undermine my influence on other players.

Honestly, I hate encryption also. It's completely unnecessary and I don't like it. Please encrypt it or not post it at all.

Thanks.

@Mexal and Jerubbaal: can you both link to your best game as scum.

I've only been scum twice and a SK once, none of which has been on this site. The first scum game I can link you if you want. The second, the game is still ongoing but I was NKed N3 and cardflipped so I'm not quite sure if that's such a big deal or not to link. I don't know if you want the SK one. Let me know.

[curiouskarmadog]

Rather, it looks like ckd KNOWS anata would come up town and defended her to get townie points if she ended up mislynched.

thats wonderful, Mexal attacks me because I thought Anata was lazy and didnt feel like she was scum (so we must be scum buddies), Anata/Set attacks me because I "defended" them and I must KNOW they are town (so I am scum who knows Anata is town)..seems like a lose lose sitiuation all around. I think it is funny how people are assuming my alignment based on someone else's alignment that is unknown. Or this simply could be a way for Set to tell us he is town over and over again...who knows. I do note that Set does go out of his way to compliment his two biggest oppenents, and attacks their possible targets. I cant believe Mitzef only gets a sentence in set's breakdown.

For the record, I didnt feel there was a big enough case agaisnt anata at the time compared to Mitzef. Also (again), I said that mexal was reading the thread because he asked me where I got that Anata was lazy, when it is clearly in Jitsu's post (which he posted as his case later) why Anata was could be lazy. I htink there were other reasons too, if you really need them I can pull them, but doubt you really care.

I still feel good about my vote on MItzef....I also note how GUn is chiming in without really bringing anything to the table. Korlash could be the mafia roleblocker or town roleblocker, I just dont know yet. I dont think he is the lynch for today. Even with Set's silly player breakdown it is good to see him. Also welcome Flay, first game with you. Adel is bringing information....information about what, remains to be seen, but the posts are plentiful...the code post was silly and I am not sure why she posted it at this point.

[Setael]

You're calling my post silly because I didn't attack "my two biggest opponents"? I didn't actually check the current wagons before I posted, and I certainly didn't try to skew my read in order to make my "opponents" look scummy. Instead, I read the thread looking for scum. Can you explain what's silly about my approach?

[Korlash]

Well she did say she was only up to page so and so or something...

Hey did anyone else notice:

Right now, I think I'm happy going back after good ole

GunslingerKB

That he didn't actually vote him? Even I missed it... weird... Could be a mistake... could be intentional! *gasp*

[Mexal]

Please encrypt it or not post it at all.

This was meant to say decrypt it.

[Abstract Actuary]

@Adel/everyone, I feel that I've given an opinion on anything substantial that has happened. If after this post, you know that isn't the case for a specific issue, please ask me a question and I will answer it.

As I've stated before, I find it hard to have any strong opinions one way or another on day 1. Most of the analysis I have done in previous games (on a different site, already discussed) has been based on voting history and analyzing cases/defenses after we learn some people's allegiances.

That said, I'll try to give my thoughts on some of the more debated players.

At this point, I still find Miztef to be the scummiest player. His recent wishy/washy voting with Korlash enhances my suspicions. He's just trying to throw a bunch of stuff against the wall and hoping something sticks to get the attention away from himself (which has happened, even though he still has quite a few votes).

I never liked the case against Anata112, but I do think her asking for a replacement and then playing actively in another game is somewhat suspect. I could still see her as just an annoyed townie, though.

I'm not sold either way on Korlash. Before I thought he was just a townie who posted a lot and confused himself and others in the process. Now, he has claimed a role, but it seemed very early to do so and I'm not sure why he did it. Also, the fact that there has been no counterclaim means almost nothing to me. Since the roles aren't clearly stated and the existence of the role he claimed was probably unlikely in the first place. A scum could pick a role like that and have pretty good confidence that the role didn't actually exist, so no counterclaim would come.

Sudo_Nym has done some very strange things but also given me a town impression.

oEJo didn't really do much in the thread before being replaced. Since he has come in Mr. Flay has seemed pretty neutral to me. He seemed to be saying some pro-town things, but I'm surprised at how much he has gone on the offensive with Adel.

Jayalay didn't do much either before being replace. Adel has played strangely, to say the least, but I have no reason to believe that her play is any more likely scum than town. Some of her insights have been pretty solid (when actually provided).

[Adel]

I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.

But you can breadcrumb several things. You can hand-code several claims, and only ever use one of them.

But true crypto has all-advantage to the town, all-disadvantage to the scum, and thus goes against the spirit of the game.

So is Mr. Flay's objection to my use of crypto because it "goes against the spirit of mafia" or because it "has all advantage to the town"? Neither, so far in this game. His objection was:

I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.