Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!


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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:03 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Warning:
This post is going to be almost entirely meta. I'll talk about this specific game in a follow-up post.

Adel wrote:My conclusion is that NabakovNabakov is more likely to include a Mafia roleblocker than a normal roleblocker.... oh, wait. I take that back. unvote

I'm not nearly as confident as I was before. I think I just talked myself into giving Korlash the benefit of the doubt.
Thank you for admitting your falliability. That gives me hope that we can both continue to play this game.

Thou Shalt Not Outguess The Mod is one of the cardinal rules of playing Mafia; no matter what the tendency has been for Mini Normals or NabNab in the past, it has little to no bearing on what he did in THIS game. In fact, it's just as likely that a moderator will change his mind based on past experience, or try a new scenario, than always go with the same setups that have been used in the past. I hate Cop+Doc combos, but that doesn't mean I won't use them in my games from time to time, just to avoid being metagamed. One of the players in another ongoing game right now is trying to utilize something I said in Mafia Discussion to prove something about the setup of that game; I've often argued EXACTLY the opposite in public of what I've done in secret (but not always, obviously). This is why trying to reduce the game to statistics and number-crunching is so dangerous.

Why did I join this game, a Mini Normal, for the first time ever? It has nothing to do with NabNab offering me a choice role, which is the only thing I can think of would motivate Adel's insistence on knowing "why". It boils down to three simple things: the game needed a player for over two weeks, I respected the moderator, and I respected the playerlist (including Adel, who I have never played with). If you think I'm
afraid
of you, Adel, I'm 'afraid' you have another thing coming. I initially thought you yourself were alarmed by my presence in the game (when did Mini Normals become so newbie-heavy, anyway?) and trying to discredit/throw suspicion on me for totally meta reasons.

Now, about the crypto thing. I find robust cryptography to be completely against the ethical standards of Mafia because it removes one of the primary dynamics of the game: consequences for your actions. If I, as a power role, can claim the results of every action at the beginning of each Day, and then breadcrumb by encryption key and/or reveal it all at the endgame, that is game-breaking. If I can provide my Mason/Mafia partner with my encryption key and engage in Daytime Talk, that is game-breaking. If I can provide the checksum of my role PM and therefore confirm my role as Townie to other townies, that is game-breaking. It doesn't matter that MOST uses for cryptography benefit the Town more than the Scum (for instance, the once-proposed Day-One-Mass-Claim-via-Blowfish-Algorithm),
it's no longer Mafia
. And I won't play such a game, at least not without advance warning
(I've played Time Travel, Checkmate, Mafia Mafia, Unknown Role, RPS, Methodical Mafia and M.A.D., so saying "never" is probably foolish...)
. So you can refuse to decrypt the single instance here if you wish, but if you do it again, I'm gone from this game. That's a simple promise, not a threat.
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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:12 am

Post by Mexal »

Mr. Flay wrote: So you can refuse to decrypt the single instance here if you wish, but if you do it again, I'm gone from this game. That's a simple promise, not a threat.
You aren't the only one. I agree 100% with your opinion on cryptology. I absolutely despise it.
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:27 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Adel wrote:I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.
(snip)
There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.
The simple answer is that my reaction last night was knee-jerk, and that I had already articulated my opinions on Cryptography in Mafia Discussion, so I felt it was unnecessary to get into a meta-discussion here. The very real possibility of it affecting this game in ways not explicitly prohibited by the rules was the first thing to come to mind here. Your reluctance to abandon it made me expand on my case.

I still don't want to give my full analysis, for the very basic reason that it will affect observations of certain player interactions that are better off left until we know more on Day Two. At this point, I would support a lynch of GunslingerKB (who is lurking hardcore and irrational to boot, and thus not helping the town), Miztef (who has been inconsistent and illogical), or Setael/Anata112 (for reasons already mentioned). In addition, both of the former candidates displayed a particular reluctance to unvote Korlash, who now has 0 votes again by my count.
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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:35 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Adel wrote:I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.
(snip)
There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.
The simple answer is that my reaction last night was knee-jerk, and that I had already articulated my opinions on Cryptography in Mafia Discussion, so I felt it was unnecessary to get into a meta-discussion here. The very real possibility of it affecting this game in ways not explicitly prohibited by the rules was the first thing to come to mind. Your reluctance to abandon it made me expand on my case.

I still don't want to give my full analysis, for the very basic reason that it will affect observations of certain player interactions that are better off left until we know more on Day Two. At this point, I would support a lynch of GunslingerKB (who is lurking hardcore and irrational to boot, and thus not helping the town), Miztef (who has been inconsistent and illogical), or Setael/Anata112 (for reasons already mentioned). In addition, both of the former candidates displayed a particular reluctance to unvote Korlash, who now has 0 votes again by my count.

It's time to wrap up Day One and move on, frankly.
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:39 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Argh. Stupid CPU-quota errors.
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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:44 am

Post by Mexal »

Agreed. Day 1 has lasted a month now.

Just lynch someone and move on. Miztef has a lot of votes and he's a good candidate. I know a bunch of people have voiced suspicion on him so vote where your suspicions lie and compromise. We'll continue tomorrow.
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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 9:01 am

Post by Abstract Actuary »

I unvoted him earlier to give the replacements a chance to talk. We've heard from them now. My suspicion of him has actually grown stronger with all the wishy/washy Korlash voting. I am ready to move on to day 2.

Vote: Miztef
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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 9:48 am

Post by jerubbaal »

Sorry for the lack of contributions lately, commitments prevented me from posting at the usual frequency.

@Setael, I only have one completed game, and I was town. If you would like the link for that, I can provide it.

I'm honestly really surprised by the degree to which Adel's behavior and confidence has changed since Flay got into the thread. Adel's been making a huge deal out of the fact that Flay hasn't done a mini-normal before, while it was pretty clear that NabNab said that he was going to try to find people he trusted to replace into the game. You do realize, Adel, that you're almost suggesting that NabNab tried to entice Flay into the game by offering some sort of crazy role, don't you? You seemed to elevate yourself up to this unreachable pedestal of logic before Flay showed up, and since then you've been paranoid, provided crappy arguments, and even gone renigged on your certainty with Korlash. I mean, you even gave numbers for the likelihood of his being scum (which seems terribly arrogant to me).

I don't like the cryptography, I think it really pushes the bounds of the rules of the game and entirely violates the intent of those rules. If it would be possible to get mod action and get that decrypted, as Adel seems unwilling to decrypt it, that would be desirable.

If Flay is right about Anata's leaving and returning being a big scumtell, (and it seems like it would be), I would support her lynch or Miztef. Miztef has also been hopping around his vote recently, adding to his inconsistency. I find Miztef to be a very suitable lynch and want to be done with the day, so I'll stay where I am.
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:32 am

Post by Adel »

vote:miztef

passcode, as promised, is 510510510
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:46 am

Post by Jitsu »

I have to say that I do not like encrypted text in the game either, because it breaks the spirit of the game. Using encrypted text gives the advantage of being able to go on record of saying something and then not having to explain or defend it until later, after more information has been obtained. In my opinion the most sacred of all mafia truths is that you are instantly accountable for what you post. That is what makes it necessary for townies and mafia alike to be careful about what they post, because opponents are always ready to pounce on even the slightest mistake.

I have some suspicions on Adel myself. I am willing to believe that he has numeric models that have told him that Korlash is likely to be guilty. Adel's initial overconfidence bothered me too, but if he had stopped at Korlash, I wouldn't have found that overly suspicious. What bothered me most was how Adel used the guilt on Korlash to jump to one-sided conclusions on Jerub, Miztef, and Anata (now Setael), without ever considering the alternatives (at least, not in thread). If Korlash is town, and I think it's quite possible, it makes some of Adel's conclusions outright wrong and casts serious doubts on a lot of the rest. It's funny that Adel lectured Korlash about confirmation bias, because it seems like Adel engaged in some of that also. Either that, or Adel has been holding back on the alternate possibilites, which is somewhat scummy in itself. Still though, I consider it possible that Adel was just a townie whose scumdar was locked on to Korlash because his models told him so, and then tried to find his supposed scumbuddies by extrapolating the logic without considering the alternatives. As Mr. Flay said, Adel has recently backed off of Korlash and admitted some fallibility, so I'll just keep an eye on him for now.

Korlash has done a lot of scummy things, but for me, there is a real possibility that Korlash is innocent. I didn't buy Adel's theory in post 520 that Korlash is the "helpful Mafia Goon", because of the one gaping hole: Korlash hasn't been very helpful. And if Korlash were Mafia (especially a power role), I find it somewhat hard to believe that he would continually seek out the spotlight to keep posting craplogic with marshmallow fluff sauce, rather than sit back and let the townies duke it out.

As for Setael, you acknowledge that my points against Anata seem sound but then you say that I am trying too hard to look town. I was (and am still) trying hard to be a good townie, because it is my first game here and I really want to actively play the game instead of sitting and watching from the sidelines. I admitted my mistake in 179. Regarding 279, you say that it "definitely seems like I had a motive". Perhaps you missed this, because I explained it in post 339 (the part where I respond to post 292). As for 302, I can't see how my scum list matching Mexal's is suspicious, because I had been talking about how I found Anata, Miztef, and Gunslinger scummy for some time before that. I can see why people might think I'm acting (I have admitted it could look that way), but it seems to me that you are really reaching to make that case here.

Then you praise Gunslinger for raising the theory that I am acting (which is fine, I even admitted that in post 339) and for his apology, but you seem to have nothing to say about his mass lurkitude since then. That interests me because there were only two people that defended Gunslinger when he voted for me previously: one was Jayalay (now Adel) in post 226 (her third post of the entire game). The other was Anata (now you) in 241. I don't think it really strengthens the case against you, but I find it interesting that you seem have drawn similar conclusions about me (which I know are incorrect) that Anata and Gunslinger have.

As for Miztef, I still worry a little that he could be innocent too, but it's bugging me how quickly he jumped on the Korlash wagon in post 548. At that point, Adel's case on Korlash was nothing new at that point -- I think Korlash's low signal-to-noise ratio was well known to most of the players by then, even if people didn't refer to it as such. Korlash ended up doing most of the damage to himself (as usual) by reacting the way he did. Miztef also seemed to state that he would make a case on Korlash if the town wanted it, but backpedaled on that furiously when I called him on it. What's he afraid of?

With all the new information, my suspicions have shifted slightly, but my top suspects and my strategy are still the same. I still want to lynch someone who I feel is scummy and provides good information for Day 2. Setael/Anata is still my first choice, but if people cannot agree on her, I think Miztef is the next best play. Gunslinger's continued lurking still bothers me, but I think he can wait.
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:53 am

Post by Jitsu »

Adel's encrypted message reads as follows:
Robinson Jeffers - So Many Blood-Lakes

We have now won two world-wars, neither of which concerned us, we were slipped in. We have levelled the powers Of Europe, that were the powers of the world, into rubble and dependence. We have won two wars and a third is comming.

This one--will not be so easy. We were at ease while the powers of the
world were split into factions: we've changed that. We have enjoyed fine dreams; we have dreamed of unifying the world; we are unifying it--against us.

If Mr. Flay expresses some doubt about my graphics, but basically approves of my approach, if not my confidence, than that is a town tell for him. If he is scum I expect that he will try to build a strong case against me, preventing a doc from protecting me, so that he can nk me. I am concearned about a lurking Sudo_Nym: I do not have a good read on him. I still really really like the Korlash as a lynch candidate, and I do not believe his roleclaim, but I suspect that he is not a possible lynch for day 1. The wagon on Miztef is looking more and more like a scum led wagon to me, and the major reason I am encrypting this post is so that I can see who drives the wagon, and how far it goes.

Two wars, and they breed a third. Now guard the beaches, watch the
north, trust not the dawns. Probe every cloud. Build power. Fortress America may yet for a long time stand, between the east and the west, like Byzantium.

--As for me: laugh at me. I agree with you. It is a foolish business to
see the future and screech at it. One should watch and not speak. And patriotism has run the world through so many blood-lakes: and we always fall in.
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:54 am

Post by Miztef »

you didn't bold your vote on me adel.

I'm gonna claim Town. (I don't know if I've been hammered or not yet) . As it always happens, A townie is lynched Day 1, so I don't mind my own death. Hopefully a good chunk of information has been gained today, and the town can win on a subsequent day ^^. Good luck to all, and I hope adel and Mr. flay get along. I think I may go see what Adel's post said, why not post it decrypted as well Adel?

@Jitsu: I was honestly just too lazy to post a case against Korlash. Most of the stuff against him was just things I dislike in game, and count as "scummy", so I felt a case against him would look dumb anyway.
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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 10:56 am

Post by Jitsu »

Sorry for the bad line-breaks. If you want to confirm the results, enter the key he gave in the yellow box under "Key" and leave Codegroup as the selected option. Then paste all the lines (not counting the header and footer lines) into the red cipher text field. Then press the decrypt button underneath the red field and look for the plain text in the green field above.
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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:00 am

Post by Jitsu »

Sorry. forgot one more thing. To get to the page where you can decrypt his message, follow the link he listed with the message and click the "Encryption/Decryption utility" link there.
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:03 am

Post by Mexal »

Miztef wrote:you didn't bold your vote on me adel.

I'm gonna claim Town. (I don't know if I've been hammered or not yet) . As it always happens, A townie is lynched Day 1, so I don't mind my own death. Hopefully a good chunk of information has been gained today, and the town can win on a subsequent day ^^. Good luck to all, and I hope adel and Mr. flay get along. I think I may go see what Adel's post said, why not post it decrypted as well Adel?

@Jitsu: I was honestly just too lazy to post a case against Korlash. Most of the stuff against him was just things I dislike in game, and count as "scummy", so I felt a case against him would look dumb anyway.
Uh, are you a vanilla townie or do you have a role? Claiming town is worthless.
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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:07 am

Post by Jitsu »

Mexal wrote:Uh, are you a vanilla townie or do you have a role? Claiming town is worthless.
This is actually his second claim. He claimed "Civillian" some time ago, and then clarified it as Vanilla Townie.
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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:09 am

Post by Mexal »

Jitsu wrote:
Mexal wrote:Uh, are you a vanilla townie or do you have a role? Claiming town is worthless.
This is actually his second claim. He claimed "Civillian" some time ago, and then clarified it as Vanilla Townie.
I forgot. It's been too long.
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:11 am

Post by Miztef »

I forgot as well... hence why I claimed again. Too long a day.
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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:29 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Setael/Anata112 can wait.
Unvote, Vote: Miztef
- I'd forgotten about the "I claim Citizen" thing even though it was in my notes when my computer rebooted (thank all the little electronic gods for Autosave).

The opening post says that the generic role PM says "Townie". I think Miztef screwed up his first claim and later clarified, and now says he doesn't mind being lynched to gain information. I'm willing to call that bluff.
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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:31 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

I believe that's L-1, though I'll wait for official confirmation from NN.
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 11:58 am

Post by Jitsu »

I've been trying to tally the votes. I think it depends on whether Adel's vote in 683 counts or not. If it does, I think it's a lynch. If not, I think he is at L-1.
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 12:05 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

I apologise for my absence yesterday.

Vote Count as of Post 694


Miztef (6):
curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal, Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, Mr. Flay

Setael (1):
Jitsu

Adel (1):
Korlash


Not Voting (4):
Satael, Miztef, GunslingerKB, Adel


12 alive, 7 will lynch.

Adel's vote in 683 was not bolded and will not be counted. If Miztef intended to vote GunslingerKB in 650, his vote was improperly phrased.
Show
"Shut up!" one woman shouted at another.

"You shut up!" the second woman shouted back.

"I agree with NN"
-Yosarian2
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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 12:47 pm

Post by Mexal »

Ok. It's L-1.
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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:03 pm

Post by Adel »

vote:Miztef
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Thu Nov 15, 2007 1:18 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

Final Vote Count of Day 1


Miztef (7):
curiouskarmadog, jerubbaal, Mexal, Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, Mr. Flay, Adel

Setael (1):
Jitsu

Adel (1):
Korlash


Not Voting (3):
Satael, Miztef, GunslingerKB




Adel steps back from the voting board. The tally that sealed Miztef's fate still rocks slightly back and forth as the energy imparted to it is whittled away by friction and gravity.

"You have decided?" the voice of the Mod calls down from above. 7 members of the town nod their agreement.

"Good, then we have a lynch."

The creaking of a pully much in need of oiling is heard throughout the arena as a well worn noose descends from the ceiling to eye (and neck) level. While others stare, a few have the forethought to grab Miztef's arms and legs.

Lashing out violently, but unable to break out of the grips of his captors, Miztef is led to the noose. No matter which way his head jerks, the noose is always one step ahead, and eventually, it is applied and tightened.

No sooner had the volunteer execution team released its grip did a trap door open beneath Miztef's feet. For a moment, he is all bulging and gasping. He rocks back and forth as the energy imparted to him is whittled away by friction and gravity. Then he is still.

The PA system crackles:

"
Miztef - Townie
, Lynched Day One. Please retire to your cells for Night One."
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