Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[Cephrir]

Well, if we have exactly six vanilla claimers, we'd be better off nolynching.

[Phate]

Massclaiming means trading the triumvirate for the possibility of getting all the scum. It's a gamble at best. My first thought is to say no. At the very least, I think we need to think before people start randomly claiming.

[Phate]

Ceph - remember my comment to Spurgistan... hang on, here it is.

you made a seemingly meaningless post on the 12th about how you can't imagine why any scum would claim vanilla (don't really see how this helps town at all, and at worst, it could be an attempt to preemptively cast suspicion on those who claim trium)

Same principle here, if different details. How does your post help town? If you two are both scum (which I think is a possibility), you might as well be saying, "We should claim trium." "No, I disagree, we should claim vanilla." If you're not, what possible benefit does it have to the town to suggest a nolynch (beneficial to scum) if all scum claim vanilla?

[Cephrir]

Six vanilla claimers means all scum have claimed trium.

[somestrangeflea]

Six vanilla claimers means all scum have claimed trium.

Exactly Six vanilla claimers = Six confirmed townies (assuming that no townies would claim Trium).

Now, in a game with only 3 scum, methinks that's incredibly close to an automatic win.

[Flyinghawk]

since we already, more or less, understand the shape of the outcome of a mass claim, don't you think its rather pointless? Invariably somebody is going to lie, and we've already established that proving someone is lieing is hard with this set up. Furthermore, it could give scum better ideas about who to NK. I'm rather against a mass claim.

[Phate]

*totally misunderstood Ceph's post*

Ok, you should all ignore me.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm for a mass claim. I think it would tip things in the town's favor a lot, because it makes the scum commit to claims. If we don't mass claim now, it gives the scum a night to discuss claiming strategies. If we mass claim today, we catch them flat-footed.

[spurgistan]

So if we mass-claim, there are almost definitely going to be 6 claiming vanilla, and 6 claiming triumvirate, unless the scum get cheeky (And I think this is a decent example of a WIFOM argument, whoever thought I might not have it right - if a mafia can claim triumvirate, he can be reasonably certain he won't be lynched for a day or two, since we should be needing the power roles for at least that long. Given that this is therefore a choice between two possible claims in which one (triumvirate) is clearly more beneficial to the scum-player, the argument that mafia would claim vanilla because the town expects them to claim triumvirate is a WIFOM argument. Yes?) and while this would help the trium give town power roles and the townies to then use these power roles against scummers, the scum would know who all our power roles are, therefore being able to concentrate on them.

Also,this game seems to be set up to dissuade us from mass-claiming. The power roles can be public about their investigations without claiming and losing those roles when they are night-killed. And while mass-claiming saves us the possibility of lynching triumvirate and losing all the power roles for the game, so does the no-lynch.

[Miztef]

I agree with massclaim. The mafia will be torn as to choosing to claim trium vs. town. No matter which they pick, the situation does not turn out better for them. I still want to look into all the possibilities of this, but for now I agree it is a plausible plan.

[skitzer]

Sorry for not posting. My head is in a fog right now.

I will have to agree with a massclaim. Surely this will better the entire town's chances of winning.

[Phate]

Since massclaim seems to be the general consensus, I would agree to a massclaim.

[Cephrir]

I agree as well.

[spurgistan]

Thought I laid out my argument against a mass-claim fairly well, but I'll go along with it if it comes to pass. Just seems like this set-up is just about the least conducive to a mass0claim there is.

[Flyinghawk]

So its pretty obvious the Mafia are going to lie, but whats stopping the townies from lieing as well? Say, from a vanilla to a Trium, or visa versa? Theres no way to prove one of them did or did not do this, even if it seems illogical.

I'll participate in the massclaim if need be, but I still am not seeing the reasons why it would help the town other than "ohh, the mafia will have to lie..."

[Phate]

Ok, lemme just speak for my fellow townies on this one - don't lie. It hurts town. See http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... _All_Liars.

[spurgistan]

Strange, that link doesn't go to the article, but there is a Wiki on Lynch all Liars. Huh.

Yes. Once we get to mass-claiming, if you're a vanilla, claim vanilla. If you're a triumvirate, claim triumvirate. No matter what you think, we have three people trying to fool us already, we don't need anybody else. If we can believe 75% of the claims, well, that's how we win. And, of course if you're a mafia... be creative.

[Phate]

LAL applies to mafia, too. If you're mafia, claim mafia. Otherwise, we'll lynch you.

*eyebrow waggle*

[Phate]

Incidentally, the link doesn't work because I accidentally added a period to the end.

Corrected link: http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... _All_Liars

[Mastermind of Sin]

So how many people have yet to agree with mass claim?

[Elmo]

Me. Still thinking. I'm worried about the apparent lack of actually working it out, although it might be a good idea.

Should I post a full working out so far? It lets the scum know what the best moves are, but it also helps us understand what may be about to happen.

It's also possible the scum have already discussed trying to claim pre-game. If you're paranoid, you might say they're fully worked out it's bad for the town and are trying to get us to do it. So basically I want it to be watertight before we out the power roles.

SSF / MoS: You're smart, how far have you thought this through?

[somestrangeflea]

Should I post a full working out so far? It lets the scum know what the best moves are, but it also helps us understand what may be about to happen.

I assume that the Mafia will be more informed than we are in a given situation, but I can understand that a number of people would want to keep the "Ideal scum plan" secret from the scum.

If I get consent from a large number of people, I shall post my thoughts on the massclaim and its possible effects, but until then, I shall remain tightlipped.

[Miztef]

I think it's definitely best if we hear all the cases and what can happen with a mass claim. I for one am having a tough time thinking through all the possibilities. Of course, I could be scum, but I'm sure others are having issues with this as well.

I condone giving any information you can about what a massclaim can/may/might/will do for the town and for the scum, as long as it is worthwhile for the town to have it be known.

[Phate]

Ok, let's assume the scum are at least as smart as we are (anything else could be fatal, obv). An explanation of why you think a massclaim will/won't help town is not unreasonable. At the very least, you'll help to get other players to start thinking on their own. I'm not seeing a reason to be "tightlipped" about it. Face it; someone just suggested that townies should lie, not knowing about LAL. And as MoS will be happy to tell you, I'm too new to know what I'm doing.

I vote do it.

[Cephrir]

I'd say analyzing the pros/cons thouroghly inthread and basically handing the mafia their best strategy isn't a good idea, simply because it doesn't do anything for the town. If everyone wants to individually figure out what the mafia should do, great, but there's not much point.

Basically, I agree with SSF.