STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Almost50]

1- So, you do confess to having pursued your 3P win-con from the word go. Now what guarantees you will now be working towards anything but?

2- Titus flipped TOWN though, and tunneling 3P whose win-con doesn't even consider the town's own is -in fact- THE pro-town move.

3- A case of the A calling the E a vowel?? (I needed to improvise on something new)

[farside22]

1- So, you do confess to having pursued your 3P win-con from the word go. Now what guarantees you will now be working towards anything but?

2- Titus flipped TOWN though, and tunneling 3P whose win-con doesn't even consider the town's own is -in fact- THE pro-town move.

3- A case of the A calling the E a vowel?? (I needed to improvise on something new)

1) I have not dumped a chat since after day 1. I have used some of the points to vote a player i felt sure was scum.
2) Titus thought I was scum. Not 3p. I've been trying to figure out who scum is. He'll I tried ignoring the woman and taking time off but I like playing mafia.
3) MC square root of evil.

[Shiro]

To be honest I am conflicted between my days old strong townread and what happened last day far.

Why you do this to me far

[Shadow_step]

Shadow, what's your opinion on leaving farside22 alive?

We can't have her in lylo/mylo region if it comes to that. But i'f rather lynch scum today.

[Shadow_step]

I'd*

[MagnaofIllusion]

At this point I’m tired of seeing the majority of posting from RR, myself and Almost. The following players need to be more proactive about stating their thoughts on who might be scum in the following pool (Creature, TWIE, Shiro, Fuzzy, Shadow) -

Those players are Shiro, Fuzzy, Shadow, TWIE, and Random.

--

Moi: I get the creature scum read, I even understand what your going with but give me your thoughts on twie for a moment.

Didn’t want to forget this – TWIE is a PoE lynch for me. He’s a Snarky style complete useless slot and I don’t agree with anyone saying “He’s a strong late-game player”. If I wasn’t so strong on Creature as scum he’d probably be my vote.

I need to re-read Shiro myself as Xk and Almost had differing views on certain posts by them and I want to get my own view of their play.

Shadow as also strongly on Xk’s radar (he was hoping to get another chance to do a Skybird style execution on either Creature or Shadow which is why he chose to align with them but it never could get done). So a read is due there from me also.

Fuzzy I’ve felt has been lurking pretty strongly and the “He’s Town” read he seems to be getting for passing on a Town Snarky kill isn’t enough for me to ignore him as possible scum. So far I’d say he’s 3rd behind Creature and TWIE.

--

Then you proceed to suggest that we lynch in a pool which, yes has approximately a 40% chance of containing scum, compared to the 25% of my proposed pool...but my pool(AND suggested lynch) establish conftown with a single scum flip, and

restores to us the ability to discuss and play normally without being on the verge of a hammer constantly.

1. I’d love to see where you get those percentages (especially the 40%) given that the only people who should be able to actually accurately assess what the odds of any particular pool having scum are the scum themselves.
2. Your preference relies on your flawed “Farside will automatically flip Mafia” premise.
3. Almost and kraska are Town in my reads (and I’m guessing enough other players reads) that the benefit here seems to be you getting rid of a player who can make it easier for Town to hammer scum as we get closer to LYLO.
4. The bolded is a cute Appeal to Fear “Oh god there can be a quick-hammer any minute guys” when realistically if it was a valid point today would have already ended before Alliances can be established.

For example, assuming scum kill someone tonight, if ANY alliance chooses to both vote the same slot, farside can hammer them immediately. I'm not going to just sit around and let us keep playing in an environment like that. Hell, if she was conftown, I would strongly consider lynching her on principle(which would be a policy lynch at that point). With all the evidence showing she's likely scum? Easy choice.

Principle lynches and policy lynches are great for early game. Now that scum have gotten some free kills on confirmed Town and gotten the Cluster to get two more kills the time for herp-a-derp policy lynching is long gone.

I’ll make this as crystal clear for you so there can be no confusion – the only way you can realistically claim farside is Mafia is through a long, drawn out set of assumptions that aren’t in any way proven to be true. For example your “Leftover who chose to join the Mafia right after the Beach-a-palooza vote” theory doesn’t hold up to any close scrutiny. It assumes that said Leftover had a different time frame to join the Mafia or chose not to utilize it at earliest chance if it was the same timeframe as Xk (and would have to anticipate your event to do so which isn’t a reasonable assumption). It assumes that there is even a Leftover who can join Mafia which also stands a good chance of not being true given the Mafia already had a fairly powerful Traitor. And your assumption also means Nobody aside from Mastin can ever be considered Confirmed Town to you since you would have to apply the same “Choose to join after the Event” logic to all players. Yet you still want to “Confirm Town” clear people in your group of 4. There’s a pretty bad logical disconnect there and tells me you are either so tunneled on Farside as scum you aren’t thinking clearly or are scum yourself.

Pedit: stop comparing this to bloodborne. The situation is WILDLY different. Nahdia's role could hammer BY ITSELF, WITH NOBODY ELSE VOTING. Farside will always require at least 2 other votes being placed, or one other individual with a double vote and expends a resource when she votes, and has NO control over gaining that resource. One of the double voting slots thst could have assisted ber, DGB, could not coordinate with her without disabling her powers, or of course happening to link up with another scum slot, thus it would take at least 3 slots coordinating for a quick hammer to occur a la Bloodborne.

It's a FAR weaker role than Nahdias.

No. Just because it isn’t a duplicate role doesn’t mean that I should stop thinking critically. Based on that experience I highly doubt Varsoon is given scum the chance to get a role that can allow for three scum players to cast 8 votes (2 from DGB, 2 from Skybird, 4 from Farside) and force a lynch with 14-15 other players alive. Sorry, that doesn’t pass the smell test given the absolute shit-storm that when down after Bloodborne. I trust Varsoon would not want a repeat of that event. You of course disagree but given your disdain for anything I say as “crap logic” we are not exactly ever going to get on the same page even if you aren't scum.

[Shadow_step]

That's incorrect XK was town reading me.

[Reasonably Rational]

Honestly, the whole "joined after event" scenario is ridiculous to this head. I prefer the much simpler explanation that dgb connected with skybird or farside on D2, or TWIE on D3, and coordinated with the rest of the team, since the beachapalooza event was being discussed as early as D2/it was known it was going to happen.

The percentages I'm giving are really simple to understand. The general assumption seems to be 6 scum (except from grapes, who expects less). 1 was dead before beachapalooza. Beachapalooza votes worked out EXACTLY as they would have if every slot involved had been town and claimed honestly. Therefore, for every scum who claimed to vote for one of the top vote getters (if said vote getter wasn't their ally), 1 scum had to claim to vote for no one/someone who didn't get enough votes.

This means it is IMPOSSIBLE for there to be more scum within the pool of those who voted, than outside of it. Thus if there is scum in the voter pool, there is 1 there, and 2 outside of that pool. It is not impossible for there to be 3 scum outside of the pool, but I view that as highly unlikely, because there's no reason for scum to simply give up most of their ability to influence who received the reward.

At 5 scum total, farside can't be scum, and it's either 1/1 within the pools excluding her, or 0/2. With 7 scum, it's 1/3 instead of 1/2, or 2/2 if she isn't scum. At 8 scum, it's 1/4, or 2/3. The 8 is extremely improbable. The 7, not so much.

There has been no opportunity for a quick hammer to happen today (per the restrictions claimed by farside ) other than during a 10 minute or so window when creature was voting TWIE.

And again, I freely admit to fearmongering, because you're all fucking idiots if you don't understand why an uncontrollable multivoter of unknown alignment CAN NOT BE IGNORED.

You say my fear is that she makes it easier to lynch scum towards lylo? Perhaps you forget that the majority of the game IS TOWN. Even if she were town, it will ALWAYS be more likely that she will enable a lynch on town, rather than one on scum.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Actually, you know what, fuck it. I'm sick of this arguing, and I'm at work and too busy to actually waste time on this.

TWIE and Creature are the compromise lynches. I'll support either ones lynch, on the condition that farside waste the maximum number of points on whoever we lynch over each of the next couple days (including today), after establishing for certain who two agrees should be lynched.

So yeah, state intent,well keep traxk, when one of them hits 7 votes well vote enough to enable farside's multivoter and she hammers them.

Any objections?

-Cerb

[Creature]

Come at me farside22.

[Creature]

At least I won't be lynched during MyLo/LyLo incase MoI is left alive.

[Creature]

Mod

Can you at least confirm whether there was a mod error in my result or not?

[Creature]

TWIE should go, farside22 should also go unless you're confident you'll get scum before farside22 can side with them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@RR

– I want you to answer the following question – is Creature scum to you or not? If not I’d like you to explain how the multiple large holes in his claims and the manner in which he’s back-tracked and self-contradicted read as Town.

--

We can't have her in lylo/mylo region if it comes to that. But i'f rather lynch scum today.

Who are you voting (if you are) and who is your best bet for scum in the the pool I stated earlier?

--

Looking through Creature’s ISO I’d like to bring the following posts / facts to everyone’s attention ..

I am not upset, I just don't like when someone comes with something like "Who are your biggest townreads/scumreads? Why?"

So it upsets Creature to be asked to give input on who they think should be lynched and who should not aka Playing Mafia? At best this is a “Creature is bad at Mafia” which he’s been trying to tell me he isn’t so my other explanation is scum not wanting to be pinned down to reads early in the game.

VOTE: SirCakez

It doesn't make sense for you to whiteknight me and then put me as "perfect null"

This is absolutely correct … it didn’t make sense. At this point the only other vote on SirCakez is Snarky. So a pretty safe distancing vote.

Says he wants to lynch Cakez at 1096. Has not actually tried to engage Cakez between his vote and this point. And more generic fluff about Cakez “playing like he did in TTH” at 1131.

Yet he unvotes at 1403 after Cakez posts 1403. That isn’t a post that should have Creature unvoting saying “Ok, you are Town”. Not in the least. Read Cakez’s post. It is pretty much an empty “here are some very generic reasons why I shuffled people around on my readslist” post.

How Foxbird and Skybird are town?

And a classic distancing post from Skybird here. Read his ISO for yourself but’s he’s said absolutely nothing to this point about Skybird being scummy.

Yet his next “scum reads list” at 1924 doesn’t have Skybird anywhere on it – Xk, Shiro, RR, DGB.

Creature drops another distancing vote (this time for Skybird) at 2314. The important point to note here is that Cakez is the leading wagon. And Skybird has exactly one other vote – the vote from KTS that Creature sheeped.

By 2731 SirCakez’s wagon has jumped back up to 10 votes. And despite having said nothing since 1405 about SirCakez he makes a pretty obvious bus vote in this post.

SirCakez fake-claims and suddenly he hops right back off at 2770. Pretty classic “Maybe my partner’s fake-claim will save him” move. Which clearly didn’t work.

So at the end of Day 1 he’s distanced from both flipped non-Traitor scum. At least to my eyes it is pretty clear.

Titus nails this back in 3273 seeing exactly what I am seeing.

At 5734 he posts a reads list that Skybird (remember the player he scoffed at being Town Day 1 and had no interactions with after that point to this post) in his “Strong Town” list. And despite having Mathblade in the second tier (aka weak Town reads) votes Math at 5937 with sheeping Titus as the reason. Terrible, terrible vote if he’s Town. Makes perfect sense as scum.

Updated reads

Town: Fire, Not Chara, mastin, grapes, farside
Nulltown: Yume, Creature, Klingon, A50, CoolDog
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS, Foxbird, Skybird, Seraphim, Random, TWIE, Shiro, DGB
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky
Scum: Mcmenno, Obi

Special slot who gets their own corner because I can't read them = reasonably rational

Compare this list to 5734. Note that Skybird goes from “Strong Town” to Null with absolutely not interaction and even commenting on Skybird in-between. Pretty strong sign his reads are being manufactured since he’s scum.

Creature ends Day 2 on the Math mislynch. Note who wasn’t on his reads list at 5969. That’s right, Math.

MoI has the habit of attacking me, so I better be ready.

I’ve mentioned this earlier but wanted it quoted here – this post put me on alert for Creature specifically because the pre-emptive nature of the post. To me it is meant to say “If MoI suspects me he always does” which for the record is not true.

And important factor about Day 3 I’d also like to point out – here are all the mentions of Random during this day (which is the Day he ostensibly decided to investigate him at Climax) –

There are exactly none. So ask yourself – does Town who has an investigative role decide to not investigate a claimed scum read (Like, for instance, RR or Almost since Skybird was about to be killed by Xk) over someone they’d never mentioned at all? Especially when both claimed scum reads were harder to lynch players and random is basically slotted himself as a lack-of-activity easy vote? The answer is – no.

Other posts of note –

Another distancing Skybird vote at 7165. Still no interactions and clearly Skybird was under no pressure the Beach-a-palooza day.

Don't worry, he's just flailing as he'll be lynched like the others in RR/Almost/Skybird.

Voting anywhere other than farside22, DGB and RR/Almost/Skybird should be a scum tell.

Another distancing post from Skybird.

Which alliance should I join? Xkfyu/Shadow_step or Skybird/TheFuzzylogic99?

Why is this not a Town post you say? Why should he even be debating whether to ally with Skybird if she is scum as opposed to two non-scum reads in XK and Shadow?

So I’ve just summarized all the ways Creature’s posts Day 1-3 make perfect sense as a partner lightly distancing from non-Traitor scum.

More Creature votes please!!!!

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's incorrect XK was town reading me.

No he wasn't. He told you that so you'd be more likely to ally with him with the thought he might get another chance to execute his "Trap for Clods".

[Varsoon]

Mod

Can you at least confirm whether there was a mod error in my result or not?

I can't confirm or deconfirm any information that pertains to roles that have not been posted in the main game thread.

[TheWayItEnds]

Didn’t want to forget this – TWIE is a PoE lynch for me. He’s a Snarky style complete useless slot and I don’t agree with anyone saying “He’s a strong late-game player”. If I wasn’t so strong on Creature as scum he’d probably be my vote.

haha yeah.

remember in soccer spirits when i was so useless that i only voted for 7 slots over the course of the game and literally every single one of them turned out to be scum.

and then you replaced in and only voted for town for the entire game. like literally never had your vote on a scum slot. ever.

and then after it was over you blamed me for not taking the game seriously enough.

because you're complete shit at mafia and you have no sense of perspective because your head is so far up your ass?

creature slot is essentially conftown at this point because of how much you think hes scum. who else do you think is scum so we can conftown them as well?

[MagnaofIllusion]

TWIE if all you are going to do is puff out your chest and think your opinion of my ability at Mafia bothers me in the least you probably should go back to lurking and doing nothing.

[TheWayItEnds]

who else do you think is mafia.

so i can conftown them.

[TheWayItEnds]

alright then.

keep trying to take potshots at me then.

maybe you can be the worst player in this game too like you were in soccer spirits.

[Reasonably Rational]

@MoI: we already stated that creature has been one of our scumspects since like D3 (maybe even earlier, but not sure if I'm conflating our suspicions of him for Titus' in our D1 alliance.

His posting and contradictions today have him as exactly as likely to be scum as farside for me. Farside is prefetable because she represents a much greater threat from abilities she's displayed.

@TWIE: soccer spirits was shit. Poorly balanced crap game, town mislynched what, twice, and had town vigs hit scum twice, and STILL lost? Yeah. Imbalanced game, nobody should ever talk about it again. You should, however, talk about THIS game instead of getting into this argument nobody cares about with MoI.

MoI: did I miss something about xks event that allowed him to use it more than once?

-Cerb

[TheWayItEnds]

oh soccer spirits being poorly balanced is why moi had the worst reads ive ever seen.

that makes sense

if moi just tells us his reads we can lynch people not on the list and basically guaranteed win the game.

[Creature]

The only way I am getting lynched is if farside22 uses all her extra votes on me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI: did I miss something about xks event that allowed him to use it more than once?

He did until right before deadline last Night. His post in the gem PT was basically "How have we missed that my Trap for Clods was one-shot"?

[Creature]

Yeah, the stress was at +1 when I got my results.