Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[Miztef]

but if we do get it right, we are at a good advantage (since all leftover civs are confirmed)

[FaerieLord]

@Elmo I cannot see why? We get a lot of information, mostly since the roles will be killed at random. ie, we have 2/3 chance of having a cop results from a more narrowed down number, so that already helps.

And what mitzef said

[Elmo]

Miztef: Yes, so we now need to examine our chances of getting it right. Using the same logic, it would be great to be in a situation where we've got a million townies and one scum, but we lose if we mislynch three times, because if we get it right then we've got 999,997 confirmed innocents. But we stand zero chance of getting it right then, and I'm worried about our chances of picking out one in seven with three guesses. No lynch is an interesting idea, though.

FL: The cop thing is beneficial, actually, but if we've got (for example) 3 trium claimers, then we've got ~2/3 chance to only ever get two investigation results. I'm not saying it's 100% awful bad, but we've got to understand the benefits and drawbacks of a claim before we do it.

[FaerieLord]

@Elmo. Read above. If we mislynch 3 times, then we deserve to lose

[Mastermind of Sin]

Elmo is right. I'm glad he brought up these statistics, because I hadn't thought of it. This "we deserve to lose" crap is bullshit. There is never a reason to let pride cloud your judgement from taking the safer path. You should never gamble with the statistics in a situation like this. The best strategy is the one that has the best worst-case scenario. We're not looking for the high-risk, high-return plan. We're looking for the plan that gives us the best chance of not screwing it up, not the plan that gives us a very small chance of completely owning the scum and a very large chance of getting our asses kicked. There is no reason to decrease our chances of winning just because we're too proud to take the safer route. That's retarded.

No Mass Claim from me.

[spurgistan]

OK. Can we get back to playing Mafia, now? If so,

Vote: Faerie

for all the non-logic ("deserve to lose", etc.) in the above posts.

[Flyinghawk]

^ Miztif's post is the kind of thing that needs to be happening.

Let's say we get 7 civs, 5 triums. By lynching only townies first, we first of all, have a chance of hitting a scum, even if the odds aren't amazing.

We got 1 in 7. If we just lynch people as usual, we got 3 in 12 = 1 in 4. Why is this better, again? You just halved our odds.

If we do, we eliminate the possibility of lynching a trium, Which I believe is near suicide for the town.

[Mastermind of Sin]

The triums can still claim before we lynch them...the mass claim changes nothing in that respect.

[FaerieLord]

Perfect plan MoS. And then every scum can get away with claiming trium, just because he can and we'll have to take the safer path.

There is a very little chance that we get bad effects from the massclaim. 3 mislynches. I highly doubt that we will mislynch 3 times.

[Mastermind of Sin]

If every scum claims Trium, that's no different than every scum claiming Trium during mass claim. If we get too many Trium claims, we can deal with it then.

[spurgistan]

Dude, faerie, if every scum claims trium in the normal game, we should be set, going on the logic set forth in the massclaim.

Confirm Vote

[Shanba]

Vote Count:
4: Phate

(Flyinghawk, MoS, Miztef, Faerielord)

3: MoS

(YuanTi, Elmo, phate)

1: Faerielord

(spurgistan)

Not voting: skitzer, Cephrir, Sir Tornado, somefleaorother

Vote count now inserted on page 11, too.

[Phate]

Unvote

Vote: FaerieLord

Reasons forthcoming later tonight.

[Flyinghawk]

Unvote

I feel a bit better about Phate now, after such a long time.
Furthermore, we keep talking about this massclaim, but it just sounds like we are going around in circles with it. How are we finally going to decide if or when we should do the massclaim? When everyone agrees? A majority vote?

[FaerieLord]

No it is different because we get instead of wasting weeks on them one by one we get them all together and we can focus on less people.

[somestrangeflea]

No it is different because we get instead of wasting weeks on them one by one we get them all together and we can focus on less people.

Scum getting lynched = win, town getting lynched = lose, regardless of how long it takes.

The path is irrelevant, only the destination.

Also, your use of word "different" rather than "better" seems out of place. Not sure what is means yet, but it's noted for now.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Unvote, Vote: FaerieLord

You were given the chance and the reason to drop this. I can only conclude that you are still pushing for mass claim because you are scum, and it benefits you to go through with it.

[FaerieLord]

Why should i drop it if I still think its a beneficial plan?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Because only scum could possibly think this was a good plan at this point. The logic has been proven that the town has a better chance of winning if we do NOT mass claim. You are trying to brush past these proven statistics and play towards some retarded sense of pride about the game. You're presumptuous and likey scum as well.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I would like more people to speak up about the mass claim situation while I'm away on V/LA.

[Cephrir]

Has anyone not given their opinion at this point?

[Yaw]

MoS asked me to post that he'll be V/LA through Tuesday. Thanks.

[skitzer]

I havent.

I can see how it benefits both scum and town. We'd get a simpler picture of who to lynch, while the scum know who the trium are. I think we could win this without trium, but for now I think we should just stay safe and not mass claim.

[Phate]

Incidentally, what is V/LA? Vacation/Leave of Absence?

Ok, I've been thinking about the massclaim. Specifically, not about the massclaim in a vacuum, but about the massclaim compared to a delayed claim. This is probably basic Mafia theory for most of you, but it's the first time I've really thought about it. We all agree, I think, that a 5-7 or 4-8 split would be horrendous for town (except FaerieLord). However, know this: whatever the scum have decided on, be it 5-7 or 4-8 or w/e, we're still going to have that. It will just happen as scum come under suspicion and are forced to claim.

The only difference is that if we massclaim, we'll have that plus the scum know who the triums are. So I think massclaiming would be beneficial to scum.

[skitzer]

Vacation/Limited Access.