STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

Creature · Post Post #10250 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:04 pm

VOTE: Shiro

Creature · Post Post #10251 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:07 pm

Also, usually the number of scum is equal to the number of mislynches they need to meet their condition assuming there's just one kill per night.

Creature · Post Post #10252 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:08 pm

Correction: Number of mislynches town can do without losing

Creature · Post Post #10253 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:08 pm

7:2
10:3
13:4
16:5
19:6

grapes · Post Post #10254 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:10 pm

Could lynch shiro probably maybe.

I don't feel particularly strongly about any reads at the moment.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #10255 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:11 pm

First things first - scum attempted to kill me last Night but were thrwarted. All I can say is "Suck it scumbags"

Does anyone have an alliance today? Please state affirmatively if so.

And we are not lynching ANYONE till a few things get straightened out.

grapes · Post Post #10256 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:12 pm

Almost and I got an alliance.

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #10257 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:16 pm

@Mastin

- any thoughts on why scum chose to kill me over you?

In post 10231, Varsoon wrote:Also, MoI, if you're so confident I am scum, let's play a game:

Say something like "If Creature flips town, I'll..."

This is pure Appeal to Fear "What will you do if you are wrong MoI"?

If Creature flips Town I'll never again under-estimate his ability to play as scummy as possible even when Town.

Creature · Post Post #10258 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:17 pm

You seriously didn't note any difference in my play in The Walking Dead Season 1 Finale?

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10259 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:50 pm

Farside22 (LYNCH?):

Titus, SnarkySnowman

, MagnaofIllusion,

TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Skybird

,

Yume, Xkfyu

,

Not Chara

,

McMenno

, Kraskaeaque, Almost50
DrippingGoofball (3): Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature
SnarkySnowman (3): mastin2, grapes, Farside22
Kraskaesque (1): Shadow_Step
Shadow_Step (1): Firebringer
Not Voting (2): Reasonably Rational, randomidget

grapes · Post Post #10260 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:55 pm

What's funny is it looks like scum thought they were lynching scum just looking at that by itself.

farside22 · Post Post #10261 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:59 pm

In post 10255, MagnaofIllusion wrote:First things first - scum attempted to kill me last Night but were thrwarted. All I can say is "Suck it scumbags"

Does anyone have an alliance today? Please state affirmatively if so.

And we are not lynching ANYONE till a few things get straightened out.

farside22 · Post Post #10262 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:59 pm

I'm with rr today.

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10263 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:00 pm

maybe they thought Far was the traitor. Either that or they thought far was a dangerous third party, I doubt Far is scum though.

TheFuzzylogic99 · Post Post #10264 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:12 pm

ok I failed in my alliance......so either Kras did not write to ally with me or we were blocked.

mastin2 · Post Post #10265 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:40 pm

In post 10257, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@Mastin
- any thoughts on why scum chose to kill me over you?

Several, few of them productive.
One, we're about equally confirmed-not-scum, so it's not like they have reason to kill me first.
Two, you hold the stronger, and also less-well-known, role between us. I am a mostly-known entity in the game. You're known to be a gem, and you're known to hold control over a strong power, but also have secrets of your own you have held close to your chest.
Three, you implied there was a great benefit to be had in allying with randomidget which the scum would fear.
Four, my analysis going into the night was mostly reliant on a TWIE townflip. With him flipping scum, I've got far less control over the game.
Five, I sincerely doubt the scumteam is actually TWIE-kraska-Shiro now (in spite of kraska and Shiro having individually been my strongest suspects), yet kraska and Shiro were next on my lynch line. If one--or both--were town, scum would have incentive to keep me alive. But I had already concluded this during the night.
Six, depending on who the members are and their experiences with us, they may view you as a stronger player in general than me.
Seven, there have been talks of me being protected, multiple times. There have been no such talks for you as far as I can recall, which means there's always the possibility they thought I was being protected yet you were open to attack.

For a start.

The closest to being useful is #5, but again, that tells me little I hadn't already deduced even without a TWIE-scumflip.

mastin2 · Post Post #10266 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:42 pm

Also, I succeeded in my alliance.

Almost50 · Post Post #10267 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:51 pm

One thing is for sure: >>>DGB DID have contact with scum during E3.<<< Recalculate based on this FACT

mastin2 · Post Post #10268 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:20 pm

Spoiler: Every Scumteam combination

Excluding the literally impossible ones of top voters (RR/Almost/farside/kraska cannot be paired together), this is what you have.
I'm confirmed town by Yume.
The crystal gems are confirmed, and I firmly believe that they are who they say they are and that they have no security breach, for multiple reasons.

So that leaves:

Spoiler: Possible Scum Combinations

This much is easy. This much is a given.

Now comes the hard part: speculation.

I believe grapes is town. We know Not Chara was allied with grapes, and that thanks to Not Chara's power, grapes was given a passive immunity to the nightkill, which grapes was (if I recall Not Chara-through-MoI's claim correctly) unaware of.
As such, there is a significant chance that he was, legitimately, the actual nightkill N1. We know that, almost assuredly,

someone

was going to be the nightkill. And grapes had protection. And the kill fits, especially since grapes was a driving force behind the SirCakez lynch. In other words, while TWIE flipped scum (and therefore his claim cannot be taken entirely at face value), I think he was sincere about this. We know his role wasn't a lie. So he might have told the truth. It was nothing we weren't going to find out anyway.

Furthermore, does anyone actually think grapes is scum?
Speak up if you do. I'll wait for Not Chara-through-MoI to answer that, too. Does anyone, honestly, actually think grapes has a realistic chance of being scum?

I know we're at the phase of the game where we should be questioning assumptions of a player being confirmed town.
But personally, I don't see grapes as scum, to the point where if he is scum, I would be comfortable admitting defeat if grapes were scum.
If you disagree with this, feel free to present me with a reason why, because unless I am otherwise swayed, I'm eliminating teams with him on them.

So,

Spoiler: First round eliminations

Next up: Almost50. For a start, I do not think scum align with scum the way he did on D1. He's also one of the stronger proponents of the idea that scum might have done that, and I don't see him advocating that if he himself were scum allied with SirCakez. Aside from that, I simply don't think his play comes from scum, so I'll say the same for him as I did for grapes:
If there is

anyone

who thinks Almost50 is actually scum, speak up. Give me good reason to doubt him. Because he looks insanely town to me. I'm almost positive this is the same him from Gistou, and he was town there, so...I'm quite comfortable eliminating pairings with him. That IS an assumption on my part, and if we lose the game because of it, I do apologize, but I can't help but make that call. Which gives us...

Spoiler: Second round eliminations

From here, I'm not going to eliminate any players, at least not yet. Not even farside, who I think is town.

I will, however, eliminate pairings.

kraska-Shadow is basically impossible to me.
I might be able to eliminate other pairings later, but for the time being,

Spoiler: The list

So let's reorder that.

There is 0-1 scum in the RR/kraska/farside group.
There are 1-2 scum in the Shadow/Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature group.
(Fun math by the way: that means the first group has each member as 17% likely to be scum, and the second group to be 37.5% chance to be scum per person.)

farside-Shadow
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
RR-Shiro
RR-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
kraska-Fuzzy
kraska-Creature

Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Fuzzy
Shadow-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shiro-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature

Of these teams, I am comfortable eliminating RR-Shiro. Unless you think Titus paired with two scum, AND said scum then used that alliance as a mutual "trust me", it doesn't work.

So,
farside-Shadow
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
RR-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
kraska-Fuzzy
kraska-Creature

Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Fuzzy
Shadow-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shiro-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature

Let me re-order those teams (topvoter scum/all-bottom scum) in approximate order of likelihood to me right now:

kraska-Creature
RR-Fuzzy
kraska-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
kraska-Shiro
farside-Shiro
farside-Fuzzy
farside-Creature
RR-Shadow
farside-Shadow

Fuzzy-Creature
Shiro-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy
Shadow-Shiro
Shadow-Creature
Shadow-Fuzzy

That's not saying "kraska-Creature is our scumteam!", with "Shadow-Fuzzy is the least-likely scumteam!", for clarity.

There's a division between the two.
The top is if there's scum in the topvoters; the bottom is if there's no scum in the topvoters.

So right now, I mostly want to narrow this down even further than it already is.

mastin2 · Post Post #10269 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:34 pm

My analysis from yesterday had this to say:
Fuzzy/Shiro/Creature contains one scum, no more and no less. (Not quite sure if I can trust that.)
kraska/RR/Shadow(/farside) contains one scum, no more and no less. (The no more is definitive, the no less...less so.)
farside is incredibly unlikely to be scum.
One of Shiro/kraska/RR is incredibly likely to be scum.
Shadow-Creature looks unlikely as a pair.
I find Shadow doubtful as scum aside from that anyway.

If I had to rank teams right now, it'd go something like this:

kraska-Creature
RR-Fuzzy
kraska-Fuzzy
RR-Creature
Fuzzy-Creature
kraska-Shiro
Shiro-Creature
Shiro-Fuzzy

...But that's just guesswork and I'm not at all happy with leaving the game to what effectively amounts to gut.

Shadow_step · Post Post #10270 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:36 pm

I think I would have bussed TWIE like crazy after that GS guilty on him, I'd expect scum did the same thing. I mean there was literally no point in defending him or not bussing him. He was going to get lynched sooner or later, why not get free town cred while you can. Anything else sounds dumb play.

VOTE: Creature

Shadow_step · Post Post #10271 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:52 pm

@Mastin
I'm not really understanding why A50 is not scum for you?
Is it just because he was hard defending SC day 1? Well SC was possibly the most powerful scum role in the game because of him being the "leader". I wouldn't discount it.

Shiro · Post Post #10272 (ISO) » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:43 pm

In post 10236, farside22 wrote:After twie said his shot was garenteed I figured he'd flip red.

Shiro: why do you do not action during the night phase?

Cause my action is only good if I have allies which I have been shit at making.

I can keep alliances open forever but I never got the chance to actually use it other than first time but fire got bubbled and it was for naught

farside22 · Post Post #10273 (ISO) » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:14 am

In post 10264, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:ok I failed in my alliance......so either Kras did not write to ally with me or we were blocked.

In post 10272, Shiro wrote:
In post 10236, farside22 wrote:After twie said his shot was garenteed I figured he'd flip red.

Shiro: why do you do not action during the night phase?
Cause my action is only good if I have allies which I have been shit at making.

I can keep alliances open forever but I never got the chance to actually use it other than first time but fire got bubbled and it was for naught

Well this is a lie.

Vote: shiro

I checked you n4 and know for a fact you gain nothing being in an alliance.

Tfl: you didn't get in an alliance with kraska, is your ability only garenteed if in an alliance?

grapes · Post Post #10274 (ISO) » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:16 am

lol get wrecked