Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[FaerieLord]

If you basically want me to shut up about it, I will. Though my opinion is still the same. I'm only pushing it because i think its the best possible plan at the moment, than acting it all out.

[somestrangeflea]

In terms of gameplay, why is getting all the information out now

better

than allowing it to be revealed gradually?

[Phate]

Because if we reveal it all now, the scum will have their next nightkill or two laid out for them.

[FaerieLord]

No, because if we reveal it now we can deduct the scum from a much smaller group

[somestrangeflea]

No, because if we reveal it now we can deduct the scum from a much smaller group

12 players to 7 players is not a "much smaller group".

[FaerieLord]

3/7 is approx 1/2.
3/12 is 1/4

Twice the chance of mislynching.

It is a much smaller group to me. But as I said, I'll drop it if you insist :/

[Miztef]

faerieLord... if all the scum claim town, it would be 3/9, which is 1/3. They most likely will claim 1 town, 2 trium, which is 1/7 chance of finding scum in the townies.

I do think that a mass claim is not the best idea anymore.

[somestrangeflea]

3/7 is approx 1/2.

Well done.
You can't actually get a group of 7 with 3 scum in it, though, so that statistic doesn't actually matter.

You can have...

Without massclaim:
3/12 (25%)
With massclaim:
3/6 (50%) & 0/6 (0%)

Best case scenario. 6 confirmed innocents. Triumvirate exposure virtually irrelevant (?)

2/5 (40%) & 1/7 (~14%)

Worst case scenario. "Needle-in-a-haystack" situation.

1/4 (25%) & 2/8 (25%)

Worse than without massclaim due to exposed Triumvirates.

0/3 (0%) & 3/9 (~33%)

Good scenario. 3 confirmed innocents, but all Triumvirates.

The fact that the scum can control which of the above situations we end up with means that the massclaim is essentially useless, if not weakening for the town.

[Miztef]

That is exactly the conclusion I have come to SSF. I realized that a massclaim is not as good of an idea as originally thought, and I think it's time to move on to the scum hunting again.

[Mastermind of Sin]

FaerieLord is continuing to argue for the mass claim without responding to the arguments that have been brought forth against his plan. He's just continually repeating the same words over and over, trying to browbeat us, through repetition, into agreeing. Can we please lynch him now?

[FaerieLord]

Ok, I'm sold. It's not a good plan. I take long to digest numbers

[Elmo]

I would like to take the opportunity to ask everyone (aside from Mastermind of Sin, obviously) if they think FaerieLord's behaviour thus far is lynch-worthy. A simple yes/no would be nice.

[Cephrir]

If I absolutely must give a one-word answer, then yes.

[Phate]

Ditto Ceph.

If I'm allowed to give a percentage, though, I'd set it at 65%, where 100% equals I'd push the lynch to the exclusion of all others, 0% means I absolutely would do everything I could to derail the wagon, and 50% is unsure.

[Miztef]

right now, no.

I'm not convinced what he has said is lynch worthy.

[Phate]

His last post was one of the things that bumped that percentage from 40 to 65. Making a 180-degree turn not based on any evidence but on the threat of a lynch.

[Elmo]

Yeah, sorry, excluding the last post. Also, yes/no is just nice, not required; what Phate's doing is fine, and actually perhaps more helpful. Whatever floats your boat.

[Mastermind of Sin]

His last post was one of the things that bumped that percentage from 40 to 65. Making a 180-degree turn not based on any evidence but on the threat of a lynch.

Well there was plenty of evidence. Just no

new

evidence. Only clarifying here, I agree that the 180 under pressure doesn't look that great. I'm going to think on that one, because I need to figure out what I think a town player in that situation would have done (I still feel it's unlikely for a townie to get IN that situation, but we have to consider the possibility).

[Elmo]

He's just continually repeating the same words over and over, trying to browbeat us, through repetition, into agreeing. Can we please lynch him now?

I'm going to think on that one, because I need to figure out what I think a town player in that situation would have done

Speaking of doing a 180...

[FaerieLord]

I knew I'd be called out for back peddling. But 1) The numbers favour your case 2) Even if they favoured mine, I've got no back up so its better off that way.

Look at it this way. If I pushed the case, I'd be lynch. I backpedaled. Will I still be lynched? Looks like a lose / lose situation :/

[somestrangeflea]

He's just continually repeating the same words over and over, trying to browbeat us, through repetition, into agreeing. Can we please lynch him now?

I'm going to think on that one, because I need to figure out what I think a town player in that situation would have done

Speaking of doing a 180...

How?
Not really a 180, since, in the second post, MoS hasn't actually stated any change in his own thoughts, only that he's thinking about how likely it is that a Townie reaction to the situation would ideally be.

That being said, MoS does seem awfully sure in his first post. Not really a 180 though, more of a 135, IMO...

Look at it this way. If I pushed the case, I'd be lynch. I backpedaled. Will I still be lynched? Looks like a lose / lose situation :/

You're being suspected for backpedalling, not through the act itself, but because of the time you chose to do it (ie, under the threat of a lynch).

[somestrangeflea]

Also, expect little to no activity until Friday, V/LA and the like.

[Mastermind of Sin]

He's just continually repeating the same words over and over, trying to browbeat us, through repetition, into agreeing. Can we please lynch him now?

I'm going to think on that one, because I need to figure out what I think a town player in that situation would have done

Speaking of doing a 180...

How is that a 180? I still want to lynch FaerieLord because he's scum. However, I'm not doing this with my blinders on. I'm still

considering

the possibilities. I just don't find it very likely that he's not scum.

[skitzer]

FoS: FaerieLord

because of her dealings with the massclaim. She may have just needed some explanation, but I just wanted to note this for further review.
It's kind of a delayed reaction from me, I know.

[Cephrir]

LA through Sunday, I probably won't have any access.