DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Ircher]

Votecount

Ircher [4] - McMenno, mastina, Accountant, RedCoyote
mastina [4] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX, xRECKONERx
McMenno [3] - Ircher, Cephrir, Nukebringer
Errantparabola [2] - GreyICE, GuyInFreezer
Accountant [1] - Papa Zito
hiplop [1] - MagnaofIllusion


Not Voting [5] - hiplop, Cheetory6, Errantparabola, Vaxkiller, Nahdia

With 20 alive it takes 11 to lynch.

Ircher is V/LA until 12/5.
Magna is V/LA until Monday.

It is now DEFCON 1. Day 3 will last until 12/16/2016 at 21:00 hours PST.


Projected Impact Times:
UT has recalled his nuke in time, so both his and the Interception are cancelled.

Papa Zito: (expired on 2016-12-04 20:37:02)
Unknown: (expired on 2016-12-04 23:58:53)
Errantparabola: (expired on 2016-12-05 03:28:31)
Unknown: #2 (expired on 2016-12-05 12:44:46)
Nukebringer: (expired on 2016-12-05 15:51:44)

Since the interception got canceled, UT cannot have the submarine.

[Nukebringer]

(WHY????)

Power corrupts.

Apparently, so do nukes.

[Nukebringer]

Since the interception got canceled, UT cannot have the submarine.

I thought that was obvious when he typed his nuke order in bold?

[Ircher]

Again, the SK gets two picks.

[Nukebringer]

LESS THAN 24 HOURS TO GO, FRIENDS

[Nukebringer]

Again, the SK gets two picks.

Someone tattoo this on my arm so I don't forget it again.

[Ircher]

He technically could have the sub and the nuke....

Actually, that's interesting:

@Mod --> Theiretically speaking, if the SK has both the sub and the missile silo and has shot both (and both can still be intercepted), which nuke(s) will be interceoted by the strategic missile defense if they target the correct person? What if one of the nukes gets recalled? What happens?

[xRECKONERx]

like what if mastin lied about her bid placements in order to throw the game into chaos making us think there are more power roles out there than we thought

Mastin had a confirmed nuke launch. So she wasn't lying about losing the draft.

uh you can just get a nuke if you don't take anything

[Andrius]

@Mod --> Theiretically speaking, if the SK has both the sub and the missile silo and has shot both (and both can still be intercepted), which nuke(s) will be interceoted by the strategic missile defense if they target the correct person? What if one of the nukes gets recalled? What happens?

If the SK had both a Silo and Sub and both nukes were flying, SMD would intercept the Silo nuke first.

In the second situation, the SMD would be targeting the Silo, and if the silo is recalled then the SMD would NOT switch targets to the Submarine nuke and would effectively be used up.

[Untrod Tripod]

correct me if I'm wrong, but that confirms I don't have a silo yeah?

[Untrod Tripod]

I don't have a submarine

fuck

[Nahdia]

no, unfortunately it doesn't.

[Untrod Tripod]

oh, duh

I'm confusing silo and sub in that post. too many jargon.

[McMenno]

Who fucking cares.

[mastina]

wait wtf who the fuck nuked zito

It was a choice of Zito or RC for me.
Both were about equal scumreads, though I admit RC was slightly stronger, however, reading the gamestate at the time, I was under the impression that if I tried to nuke RC, it would be intercepted and the person doing the interception wouldn't be called scum for it. Whereas by nuking Zito, I had a higher chance of the missile either going through, or an intercept meaning the interceptor would be scum.

But apparently it doesn't matter since SpyreX sabotaged me (and also Zito is very believably town if HE nuked RC like he said), so.

[mastina]

She has a point that there's a specific tone to them. While I don't think scum are above faking it to a certain extent, I highly doubt mastina's usual tone wouldn't leak at some point.

Actually, my point was multiple-fold.
One, the scum if they're at all smart, are altering their posting patterns. If they speak in all proper English (like I do...well, close enough to proper; I use punctuation and grammar to say the least), they'd probably take an all lowercase runon sentence speech pattern, for instance. If their normal IS said lowercase runon sentence, it doesn't take much effort for them to speak in proper English. (At least, presumably.)

Two, the scum have two very distinct patterns observable from the leaks: They have someone who is spamming the scum thread with random stuff which is utterly meaningless--the troll. While many players on here can troll, only a few specific players can troll in

that

particular way. So PoE is a powerful tool, there.
They also have someone who wrote the code and is actively using it--this is something which also fits only a few specific players. There's some overlap with the prior list, but this is likely a different person on the scumteam. And honestly I don't have Something_smart or Spiffeh as codewriters or for that matter trolls (Spiffeh could I suppose), so the trollposter is likely still alive at the moment.

Three, the main point I've made, is that in spite of the deliberate alterations to posting style and the efforts of writing code, the leaks could still potentially give away who the scum are...but that very specifically, it might not be so easy to do. For instance, in a mafia PT, sure, I'll normally ramble. I'll normally write notes to the dead apologizing for me being a terrible human being executing my master plan. In this game I'd just send the messages directly to Andrius via PM. (Which is one reason why people

aren't

automatically clearing me for mentioning sending the PMs. It's pretty obvious that I have, sure, but it's not something which is 100% undeniably beyond all shadow of a doubt town.)

So in the case of me, my writing style wouldn't really leak out.
You think I can't hide it, but I can. I'm a very prominent user of alts, after all. I have practice in writing every style you could possibly imagine. And while there are some things which give away that said alts are me (namely, the way I treat the game is

very

unique, plus that I usually have knowledge on said alts which affects how I treat people in the game), those things are not things which you can pick up on purely from a random selection of small snippets of a thread, LEAST of all one where a code has been deployed.

Plus, while I haven't really done this effectively in over a year (maybe two, actually, or even three; it's been a LONG time), I write my psychological profiles as scum in the pregame. That means I do ALL threat assessment then. Before eavesdropping is put into the game. As in, I will make a detailed list about each of the players: what I know about their history. (Are they an easy mislynch? Is it KNOWN they are an easy mislynch? Are they a good scumhunter? Are they CHARISMATIC when scumhunting? Are they easy to manipulate? Is it good or suicidal to try and get in a lengthy debate with them? Are they easy to work with? Are they a wildcard? Are they unpredictable? And in rare instances--basically the only slot I'd apply this to this game is Vaxkiller--are they an unknown to me.)

So basically, because I do all of my chat pregame, I wouldn't have much to say in the actual game itself, except for responding to scumbuddies and updating my pregame profiles with new info. (And honestly some of the leaks in there actually

support

that. Referencing prior posts in the scum PT would be one way I'd respond/update.)

[mastina]

I think I'm going to check LLD tonight Reck next night.

I mean you're free to check Reck if you want but it'll just be continuing to scumclaim.

mastina idk time to time I get tempted to just check her for SK but yeah

Fate might fit for a serial killer kill by me (if I was afraid of him in particular catching me), but Spiffeh sure as heck doesn't. I might consider Spiffeh as a nightkill as scum, but as a serial killer, heck no. I'd be aiming for scum.

The fact that the serial killer actually HIT scum should be proof I'm not them.

[mastina]

mastina didn't know how Russian's NK worked so she's prob not russian yeah

Bullshit.

Point to this alleged space where I don't know how the Russian nightkill works.
It doesn't exist.

I've known the Russians didn't get a kill until N2 (last night) since the rules were posted.
I've also known the serial killer was the Fate killer AND the Spiffeh killer.
And that the mafia kill is therefore absent for one of three reasons.

So yeah.
Prove this statement.

[Nukebringer]

Stop trying to invalidate people's town reads of you. Take them and run!

(I am joking maybe.)

[mastina]

maybe they don't have nukes
i feel like scum probably grabbed a handful of town roles

Yeah we've got two flipped scum silos and me having gone for all thirteen roles and gotten none of them. The remaining three scum might not ALL have roles, but it's almost an assured bet that most if not all of the scumteam TRIED for roles and it's a fair bet at least one or two got them.

And you might note I am in full agreement about them grabbing a handful of town roles.

Like, oh.
You know.

Espionage.

Justsayin'.

[Untrod Tripod]

show us some profiles you filthy tease

[mastina]

like what if mastin lied about her bid placements in order to throw the game into chaos making us think there are more power roles out there than we thought

Admittedly that's something I might do...

...If I actually HAD a role.

Saying I have a nuke, when I have a role, is a great move. In fact, it was actually my plan. I was planning on lying about whatever role I got until I was able to properly use said role to its maximum utility. (Unless I got eavesdrop, which I'd claim immediately and post the leaks of.)

My plan for this game can be broken down into three alignments:
-As serial killer: grab a free airbase to make myself immune to everything except nukes. Put fallout shelter as my top pick for my troop, to make me immune to nukes. Failing that, strategic missile defense (second), deadhand (third), or covert ops team (fourth). If all failed, rely on missile silo in defense mode. Truthfully claim what I got, and BS a reason for my scummy-ass self-serving picks. Use my hatred of vigs as justification for why I didn't go for them, probably mention something along the lines of me figuring that the good roles would be put high. In this plan, I may or may not lie about having put all thirteen troops in play, but because I wouldn't have the information of a scumteam, I'd probably play conservatively and not gambit that way.

-As scum: honestly, as scum I'd know I was fucked in a game of this nature with this playerlist. Submarine would be my top bid. Failing that, airbase. Failing that, the same picks as a serial killer, only extended to have a full thirteen. What order I'd put those others in, I don't know, figured I'd discuss that with my scumbuddies if it ever came to that but, well, yaknow. I don't actually have any so this never happened. Regardless, if I got a troop (and I was planning on getting a troop regardless of my alignment), I'd have lied and said I didn't have one in spite of having submitted the full list.

Of course, my excuse when this would be proven false would be self-evident: "You believed me when I openly claimed VT? Lol." I would tell you it was a gambit, because it was one, I'd just lie about the motivation and modify the town plan (see below) to best fit my narrative.

-As town: get a troop actually useful to town and exploit it for all its worth. In the mean time, while claiming the list I submitted, lie about having gotten one, say I did not, so as to hide my troop. Hiding the troop would allow me to lay low and utilize it to the best of my ability. For the rest of my plan, see also my daystart PM. That plan was very flexible. It wasn't originally meant for nuking. It was meant to obfuscate me having a troop. For instance, if I had nabbed cop, I could have produced results without ever being a candidate for the nightkill. (Because no fucking duh, nobody would nightkill me with my play this game. That was deliberate. What wasn't was me getting a missile silo.)

In both of the plans where I get a troop and lie about it, you might wonder, "But wouldn't you be asked to prove you have the vig?"
Why yes.
Yes I would.

But I also have a STRONG established stance that I absolutely

loathe

vigilante as a role, that I would never willingly vig someone, that I will always shoot town using it (as today is a fine demonstration of), so as town or as scum, doesn't mater; I'd have very good reason to say I was not going to use my power because I refuse to lolvig someone.

...So you're not exactly wrong.

It's just...well. We have mod confirmation that. Y'know. I have a fucking nuke. And while I'd lie and say I don't have a troop when I submitted them all and got one.
No fucking way do I like and say I don't have one (true) and submitted them all with the latter as false.

What gain is there to that?
There's gain to lying about not having a troop.
What gain is there in lying about trying to get every troop?

There isn't one.

I am also very thorough. I leave nothing to chance if I can.
So no fucking shit I submitted all thirteen powers.
I wanted one.
Failing that, to know they were all in the game.

I submitted all thirteen powers. I got none of them.
That is fact.
The only thing to determine from thereon out is whether I am town or I am scum.

[mastina]

VLA until the end of the game

GreyICE at the time the serial killer's submarine nuke was launched, both Firebringer and Reck had nukes heading their way.

That means you're going to be killed by the serial killer in 17 hours.

I mean.
If you choose not to give any content in that time.

Your prerogative.

But you're a walking deadman right now, so.

If you have any interest of giving last thoughts.
Now's the time to give them.
You won't have a chance later.

[Cephrir]

In hindsight, Spiffeh burying himself in a stupid meta argument so he wouldn't have to do anything else us a pretty obvious scum tactic

Still expect a town flip from nuke thx hippo too late now anyway though

I'll try going over his iso for real... at some pt

Pedia fucking hell mastin

[mastina]

although I still want to see mastina's "psychological profile" on me

Well first off, I'll start by admitting that you, like LLD, I know more by reputation than by firsthand experience. I've seen you play a few times here and there, but only sporadically so.

Yet for you, the profile is relatively simple, and binary:
As town you will disguise content as trolling.
As scum, you will disguise trolling as content.

I was under the impression this game was the latter, but I have reason now to doubt this.

^