Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[jerubbaal]

895 was posted after I started my last post, so it's a bit out of date. I think Flay addresses most of the concerns rather well.

I understand your opinion on pushing for Gunslinger over Korlash now better than I did. I don't agree entirely, but it does make your action more consistent. I agree about your assertion regarding usefulness to the town for day 1, but the case in question was day 2. Seems like the frame should be different regarding townie usefulness day 2, especially after lynching a townie day 1.

I would appreciate some real information from Adel and would like very much to hear Oman's impressions after a read-through.

[Abstract Actuary]

AA, who do you think might be Setael/Korlash' third? Why do you think there are exactly three scum?

My only reason to think that there are 3 scum is from what I've seen, with 12 players, 3 scum is pretty typical. It is a poorly informed guess, I admit and I wish that the more experienced players would give their impression. I also wish everyone would have answered the question when I posed it. If you think that is a curious thing to ask, think about the piece of information we would have if Korlash had given an answer. Granted, we would know he could be trying to purposely mislead us.

Right now my vote is on jerubbaal. I am also planning on doing a thorough reread sometime this week or weekend. But if you want, I can take a guess now on who I think would be Korlash/Setael's 3rd.

Assumption: Setael is scum. If this is true, I am pretty sure Mr. Flay is innocent, because I don't think he would have brought up the Setael/Korlash link first on Day 3. Adel is probably innocent. I'm innocent.

This leaves, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Jitsu, jerubbaal and Oman (GunslingerKB).

If Setael is guilty, I would think that jerubbaal is innocent, since I don't think scum would place the second to last and last vote on their scum buddy.

I would guess that Oman or curiouskarmadog are the third.

[curiouskarmadog]

I would guess that Oman or curiouskarmadog are the third.

based on what?

[Adel]

I also expect a single scum group of three players. We didn't have a double NK, and I don't expect Nabakov-Nabakov to be too experimental with his fist mini-normal. I've had quite a bit of interaction with our mod prior to this game, and I feel I have an accurate understanding of his personality and mafia-related beliefs.

Oman's actively level elsewhere on this site and lack of activity in this game is really starting to look scummy to me.

Oman: post or perish: don't wait for others to make a conclusive case for you to agree with.

[Abstract Actuary]

I would guess that Oman or curiouskarmadog are the third.

based on what?

Not much, really. As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Oman, because GinslingerKB was suspicious in the past and Setael may have decided that it was time to push Korlash's wagon over the edge once GunslingerKB began taking more heat.

curiouskarmadog, because Setael made a point to come out with new meta information, perhaps not wanting to simply fall in line with curiouskarmadog's meta research and provide a link there.

[Jitsu]

Can someone remind me who first suggested that I saw 521 earlier and didn't say anything? I was thinking it was Jitsu but here he says "someone" suggested it. That argument really is a stretch - like Flay said, it would be a weird thing for either scum or town to do. Whoever suggested it first - you are my new top suspect.

I won't have time until tomorrow morning to look through the thread and find it, so if someone else has a few spare minutes, I'd appreciate you looking it up for me.

I can see why you might have thought that given how I've attacked you during the game, but the suggestion was first mentioned by AA in Post 831:

You did switch to Korlash when the bandwagon seemed inevitable. Even though I concede you found good reason to do so, that doesn't mean you aren't scum. You may have had this piece of information in your back pocket all along and been waiting to use it until you saw that a Korlash lynch was inevitable. Or you may have decided, "Korlash is going down, I need to get a vote in for him, but I don't want it to seem like I'm switching late for no new reason", and you went out and found something new to justify your vote.

I agree it is relatively unlikely that you held onto it and pulled it out when you needed it. If anything, the scenario in the last sentence is more probable.

[Mr. Flay]

As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Wait, so you're disavowing #831 now? What happened to your suspicions on Setael/Korlash??

Also, I apologize for the null-edit at the bottom of the last page, I hit the wrong button, and unfortunately have global edit power so I didn't realize it was going to show that message. I'm not cheating, honest.

[Abstract Actuary]

To avoid any confusion:
I believe the second quote from Jitsu's previous post should be attributed to me.

[Abstract Actuary]

As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Wait, so you're disavowing #831 now? What happened to your suspicions on Setael/Korlash??

Also, I apologize for the null-edit at the bottom of the last page, I hit the wrong button, and unfortunately have global edit power so I didn't realize it was going to show that message. I'm not cheating, honest.

My current vote is on jerubbaal. Setael is probably second on my list. I'm not sure what disavowal you are talking about.

[Adel]

Seriously, by my count Oman has made 28 posts elsewhere on mafiascum.net since his last post here.

unvote, vote:Oman

post or perish

[Jitsu]

Oman has already touched on this, but the wagon on Setael today makes me nervous, despite the fact that I was one of the people on it. I wasn't going to mention the Newbie Game Anata was in being over, but it essentially destroyed the "Anata left because her role there was easier/more appealing" argument, unless she finds Vanilla Townie more appealing than whatever she has/had here. I'm still pissed about the abandonment, but it probably means it was in response to pressure, not role.

Flay, I have another question, prompted by some of Jerub's observations. Why specifically is *today's* wagon on Setael making you nervous?

You started the wagon, then Adel jumped on quickly without much of a stated reason (at the time, at least), and then I voted (and later unvoted when someone (CKD?) told me she was at -2). If you believe that Adel is near the top of your pro-town list, and that I am moderately pro-town, then what is bothering you about today's wagon?

I agree that she probably left because of the pressure. Whether that was because she was guilty or not still remains to be seen. I'm still making up my mind, but I never believed the idea that Anata left because of disinterest with her role, so the recent information doesn't make her leaving less scummy to me.

I want to know where Oman is on his read, and I am still waiting patiently for Sudo's comments also.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay, I have another question, prompted by some of Jerub's observations. Why specifically is *today's* wagon on Setael making you nervous?

You started the wagon, then Adel jumped on quickly without much of a stated reason (at the time, at least), and then I voted (and later unvoted when someone (CKD?) told me she was at -2). If you believe that Adel is near the top of your pro-town list, and that I am moderately pro-town, then what is bothering you about today's wagon?.

Hmmm. Good point. I don't have a good answer yet (like I said, it was 5am when I finished my readthrough).

[curiouskarmadog]

interesting...so many people are saying things that they dont really mean...

[Adel]

like

wish I shared your optimism.

?

[curiouskarmadog]

like

wish I shared your optimism.

?

no, I mean that..I wish I shared your optmism

[Jitsu]

We did mislynch D1, but we got a scum D2. Plus, there was only one NK on N1, and the Mafia kill failed last night (for reasons unknown). Even better, no town power roles (assuming there are any) have been flushed out yet. And unless there are four mafia, we should survive a mislynch today, if it came to that.

That's really not a bad position to be in at all on D3 in a mini.

[curiouskarmadog]

well, maybe you and Adel know more than I do..but I am currently at a loss who scum might be..I would rather not have another mislynch.

[Jitsu]

well, maybe you and Adel know more than I do..but I am currently at a loss who scum might be..I would rather not have another mislynch.

I was really just commenting on the current state of the game.

I am still trying to figure some things out myself, but I'm not worried yet. I'm happy that the activity level has picked up and some serious discussions are going on -- and it seems there will be more content coming from some of the previously active players also.

I don't want another mislynch either, but at this rate, we should get some decent info at the end of the day, regardless. There is a big motivation to try to get this lynch right though, as it puts the town in a really great position, numbers-wise, if we do.

[Jitsu]

er, I mean "...from some of the previously inactive players also."

[Sudo_Nym]

Okay, I'm not done, but here's some preliminary thoughts:

Setael: Came into a somewhat difficult situation, replacing anata, who drew a lot of fire. Makes a big contribution that leads to Korlash being lynched (though Korlash wasn't doing too well for himself anyway). So there's some chance Set's bussing, but I think it's slim.

Adel: I don't know what to think, really, and I don't know if anyone does. While I admire the playstyle- which is my ideal taken to an extreme, with a level of competence I'm still working towards, it makes Adel utterly impossible for me to get any real read on. I'm a little curious about why Adel would single me out to lead the town by the nose; either Adel knew I was innocent (cop/mafia?) or had some other qualification in mind.

I'm still slogging my way through, but that's what I have right now. They're a little scattered, but I've been jumping around a bit rather than reading straight through.

[NabakovNabakov]

Activity has been satisfactory.

Vote Count as of Post 919

Oman (1):

Adel

jerubbaal (1):

Abstract Actuary

Abstract Actuary (1):

Mr. Flay

Not Voting (6):

jerubbaal, Satael, curiouskarmadog, Sudo_Nym, Jitsu, Oman

9 alive, 5 will lynch.[/quote]

[Adel]

I'm a little curious about why Adel would single me out to lead the town by the nose; either Adel knew I was innocent (cop/mafia?) or had some other qualification in mind.

it would get you to talk and interact with other players -- a result I still desire.

Ask some questions. I will back you to help get answers.

[Oman]

Hai Adel.

[Oman]

I would also like to say I disagree with Lynching Lurkers on Day Three of a mini.

[Jitsu]

I would also like to say I disagree with Lynching Lurkers on Day Three of a mini.

Why is that?

I can see leaving the lurkers alone the first day or two in order to pursue better targets (and allow power roles to lay low and use their powers for the first couple of days), but starting around Day 3, I think you have to start getting content from everyone so that you have enough information to find the guilty parties at or before the endgame. If someone lurks their way into the endgame, it makes it much more difficult for the other townies to win.

Have you completed your read yet? I think a lot of people want to know your thoughts. Given how much lurking your predecessor did and the suspicion he was under, I think it is probably in your best interest to do so.