DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Lady Lambdadelta]

That's your choice, Cephrir. If you take the pill and show us you're town, Mastin dies.

If not, we assume you're scum and Mastin lives.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

This is the right call, yeah? I think I've got our situation solved?

[Untrod Tripod]

Yeah

Unless Martina is keyser sozeing us but... that seems pretty unlikely

[SpyreX]

Oh good, I can set the alarm again

Ftr i laughed out loud and almost woke the wife up

I think aside from the still very scary they are both town vomitorium yes

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Yeah

Unless Martina is keyser sozeing us but... that seems pretty unlikely

I mean, I admit I considered it briefly.

But Mastin will die before lylo anyway I think, so...

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh good, I can set the alarm again

Ftr i laughed out loud and almost woke the wife up

I think aside from the still very scary they are both town vomitorium yes

If they're both town, there's not a lot that can be done because of their actions. Mastin's insta nuke looks super bad if Ceph is town and Ceph's actions during nihgt can't go without deaht.

So this is the best way.

[SpyreX]

I'm trying to think what scum mastin who assumed they were blocked would gain from that fire

[SpyreX]

Double scum Dutch? That scared of the cop?

Did gif leave any crumbs about na that night have got grabbed

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm trying to think what scum mastin who assumed they were blocked would gain from that fire

If they're both scum, there's an obvious answer to that.

If just Mastin is scum, it's possible she did it in the off case she isn't sabo'd and didn't want her nuke to be controlled or directed.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Double scum Dutch? That scared of the cop?

Did gif leave any crumbs about na that night have got grabbed

GiF clearly stated they were targetting me last night.

[SpyreX]

Right but this lld really isn't scum so hmm.

I'll think about it after cephir does the right thing tm

[mastina]

Untrod Tripod is town because of the Something_smart situation on D1--this is pretty much self-explanatory, so I don't think I need to go into detail about my read there. He is above reproach. Nobody really contests this. If they do, they certainly haven't been vocal about it.

hiplop is, via GiF, confirmed to not be a Russian. Sure, he's the terrorist, but he's not a Russian.

Cheetory is just pretty blatantly obviously town here. I also don't think anyone is questioning that fact, but were they to, I would point to scum's interactions with Cheetory. Consistently, they seem to be buddying him, in a way suggesting that he is not their scumbuddy.

Vaxkiller might not be posting content, but assuming he is actually a newb, I hold no issue with what little he has given. (If he's an alt, yeah, lurking hardfuckingcore and needs to die eventually. Alt is possible because who the fuck signs up for one of their first games DEFCON, who the fuck lets a newbie INTO a DEFCON came, and also because Vaxkiller called me a "he" which no newbie should. But while it's a possibility, it's not a probability and if he is new I am inclined to think his behavior is town.)

You also have to keep in mind that Vaxkiller was consistently pressured by people who flipped scum. Spiffeh in particular was a HUGE advocate of lynching Vaxkiller, and Spiffeh was already bussing Something_smart! Furthermore, Vaxkiller's choice in roles and his usage of what he has is town enough. He's been sharing them and the things shared have actually been useful for scumhunting purposes. I just really don't see him as scum.

GreyICE was a dead man walking when the SK's nuke was flying. He had every reason to believe he was going to die, and there was NOTHING he could do to stop it--the intercept had been used already on Reck, and the SK wasn't going to recall their nuke for any reason. So he knew he was going to die. What did he do? He gave plenty of content and tried to leave some final thoughts for us all. He put in time and effort for some solid, actual analysis. He also has been in general fairly obviously town even outside of that. So while it's not impossible he's scum, it's incredibly improbable.

That leaves you with Nahdia, SpyreX, Cephrir, MagnaofIllusion, and Lady Lambdadelta.

Nahdia took counterintelligence very publicly. This is fairly suicidal in the long-term for scum: Nahdia needed to die on policy before the end of the game in order to verify the accuracy of GiF's results. (Technically still true, because a Nahdia-hiplop scumteam is THEORETICALLY possible. Even though pragmatically we know hiplop's the SK.) Furthermore, the amount of time and effort Nahdia is putting forward, the thoughts they are giving, and basically everything I'm seeing, looks good...

...But it's not outside the realm of possible for Nahdia to be scum. Nahdia is a strong scum player, who favors bold tactics that favor their team's wincon in the longterm, and could rely on their unique blend of content (not too much and not too little) and charisma to keep them afloat long enough to endgame the town. That's why they're townish, but not town enough to join the others.

I just explained SpyreX. Basically, nothing SpyreX has done has been town. I have zero reason to call him town. Outside of...gut. I have a gut townread on him, but if I am wrong on at least 2/3 of my scumreads, then he'd be the first place to look for scum.

Cephrir I nuked knowing I was nuking the doctor, because I believed I was nuking a scum doctor. Cephrir has treated me in a way I have NEVER seen him treat me before as town, in all the games he and I have known each other, and that is one of the main reasons I developed a scumread on him. He knew I was fond of gambits, yet he didn't try to sort out what sort of gambit I was pulling. He knew I was a quirky player, yet he brushed me off. He knows that I get paranoid of him as the game responds, yet his response to me acting on that paranoia was a "fuck you!" rather than the normal level of understanding he has. He knows that I am town, and isn't at all weirded out by how he didn't know what I was doing. The failure to protect someone is another damning point against him. His refusal to commit suicide is another.

But then, in spite of him knowing I have zero intention to recall my nuke, he's been giving things that it doesn't make sense for him to give if he knows he's flipping scum in 48 hours. Interactions also make me somewhat unsure of this, because if LLD is scum, the way she is treating Cephrir seems more like Ceph-as-town than as scum. (Though not impossible.) There's other stuff, too, like my original townread there that contributes to this, so I'm not sure if he's flipping scum or not. There's a lot for him, and a decent amount against him.

MagnaofIllusion is...not really an actual scumread. Rather. I always scumread Magna. Always. Yet a few things. One thing--I forget what--made me think he was town earlier, a towntell he did that I have since forgotten. That opinion has changed, in part because of something. If I feel like being smug about MoI being wrong...chances are that MoI is actually scum, not just town that was wrong. Furthermore, MoI was a scumread of SAD, and I want to believe SAD had at least one scumread right. MoI's justification of the SAD lynch was also godawful so there was that.

This is, of course, not much beyond what could amount to playstyle and hopes. There is no smoking gun, as it were. No definite sign one way or another that he is or is not scum. But I'll tell you what he doesn't have: a clear reason for being town. The reasons I hold him negatively might not be reasons to someone else, but I do not hold any reasons to have him positively, and in this game, with this much POE, that much alone is enough to land him at number two.

And number one goes back to LLD. LLD was a scumread early-on because of her tone, more or less, and also what she was doing. She was giving the appearance of being helpful, without actually DOING anything helpful. Her defense of Something_smart reeked of being white knighting. But then, Something_smart flipped scum, and I thought that if she were scum she wouldn't have defended her scumbuddy that hard. Furthermore, she picked up on my lack of a read on her D2 in a way that I didn't think came from scum, and she actually had some real pushes which were actually good.

Nothing about D3 changed much, either, in that I saw a lot from her that was better, in that she was actually feeling sincere about her need to force the scum to kill her. It seemed like a legitimate plan for her to pull off, too. But then, she rebounded back into scum. Thought like, maybe she really did hard-defend her scumbuddy, trying to keep them alive, and relying on it being too-stupid-to-actually-be-scum wifom post-lynch to not condemn her. And her pushes today. None of them have been great. And while she would flame people regardless of her alignment, the way she is flaming players--in particular, me--feels like it is her scumgame manipulating players and trying to paint EVERY dead town player as incompetent morons to be ignored even if said players may have actually held legitimate points.

Plus, she hasn't actually given much in the way of reasons behind her pushes. She'll scream, "BURN THIS MOTHERFUCKER" all day long...yet she won't give reasons behind it. Oh, she'll attack logic behind pushes well enough. She'll point out how shitty an action is plenty, especially if it's mechanical. (Because manipulating mechanics is a favorite move of hers as scum, so she DOES know her mechanical play.) But she won't show reasons for why a player is scum. She's pointing out reasons why a player is a fucking awful human being. Those two are NOT synonymous.

I'd call this a "real" final readslist, but my reads might change before the end of the night with how rapidly this game is going. It is, however, a real readslist as of now.

[mastina]

I made a terrible mistake, but to be honest, I'd probably do it again because I'm a piece of shit. Mastin's nuke without knowing this, was shit, even if she got somewhat lucky.

You say luck.

I say basic fucking common sense.

I figured GreyICE was not the doctor.
I also figured Magna "dies N1" does not select Doctor.

Ergo. You were the doctor.
It didn't take a genius to deduce.
And I was under the impression the doctor was scum.
So, bam. Nuked you. It really was that simple. Figured you were the doctor, figured the doctor was scum, nuked the doctor.

No luck involved.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Q: Will the fail safe activate on the submarine?
A: Yes.

If GreyICE is Fail Safe, he knows he wasn't targeted by the submarine yesterday, because his failsafe didn't trigger.

Note that the Fail Safe role reads: "When you are targetted" not "when it resolves".

So all this bullshit about how GreyICE is town because of his reactions after thinking he was being nuked are entirely bullshit.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

GreyICE was a dead man walking when the SK's nuke was flying. He had every reason to believe he was going to die, and there was NOTHING he could do to stop it--the intercept had been used already on Reck, and the SK wasn't going to recall their nuke for any reason. So he knew he was going to die. What did he do? He gave plenty of content and tried to leave some final thoughts for us all. He put in time and effort for some solid, actual analysis. He also has been in general fairly obviously town even outside of that. So while it's not impossible he's scum, it's incredibly improbable.

Just quoting the relevant part of your post for my post, so people don't need to read your idiocy.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

So yeah, if MoI comes in and claims Air Base like I suspect he will, I want to lynch GreyICE for not claiming that he knew he wasn't being targetted by the sub nuke due to his role.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And if you're going to argue GreyICE, lord of PYP, he who stills tells me the number analysis strategy is valid, didn't know that interaction and excuse that behaviour

I'm going to pull the "I know him better than you no fucking way in hell" card.

[mastina]

Mod: how does the failsafe interact with the submarine?
It says in the Q & A that the failsafe will activate off of a submarine shot, but it doesn't say whether it uses the missile silo rules of nuking-the-nuker or the stealth bomb rules of vengekilling.
Furthermore, if the failsafe is activated in a way that the player controlling it is not yet dead (e.g. missile silo), is the player automatically informed it has activated?

Important questions here.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Let's call it a "Burden of Proficiency"

[mastina]

I mean, the mod's answers make a difference.
You hold a point if the failsafe holder is informed of any nuclear launch against them. GreyICE is the weakest of the players I have written off as town so it would be worth revisiting his alignment if you're right.

But if the failsafe holder is not informed of a sub strike against them, then I maintain it more likely that GreyICE is town than not.

Unfortunately by the time I read the mod's answers there's a 50% chance we'll be past the recall point on nukes anyway so it's not like my feedback at that point makes much of a game's difference.

[Andrius]

Mod: how does the failsafe interact with the submarine?
It says in the Q & A that the failsafe will activate off of a submarine shot, but it doesn't say whether it uses the missile silo rules of nuking-the-nuker or the stealth bomb rules of vengekilling.
Furthermore, if the failsafe is activated in a way that the player controlling it is not yet dead (e.g. missile silo), is the player automatically informed it has activated?

Important questions here.

If a Submarine were to NUKE a Failsafe, I would post the Sub Launch and then immediately afterwards the Failsafe would return fire in the next post. So it's a nuke-the-nuker scenario.

I'm not sure what exactly you're asking, but in all situations where a Failsafe is Nuked by

any

aggressor, I will automate the Failsafe returning fire. The only situation where this does not occur is if the Failsafe is Nightkilled, where the Failsafe gains a Vengekill instead of immediate return fire.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mod: how does the failsafe interact with the submarine?
It says in the Q & A that the failsafe will activate off of a submarine shot, but it doesn't say whether it uses the missile silo rules of nuking-the-nuker or the stealth bomb rules of vengekilling.
Furthermore, if the failsafe is activated in a way that the player controlling it is not yet dead (e.g. missile silo), is the player automatically informed it has activated?

Important questions here.

If a Submarine were to NUKE a Failsafe, I would post the Sub Launch and then immediately afterwards the Failsafe would return fire in the next post. So it's a nuke-the-nuker scenario.

I'm not sure what exactly you're asking, but in all situations where a Failsafe is Nuked by

any

aggressor, I will automate the Failsafe returning fire. The only situation where this does not occur is if the Failsafe is Nightkilled, where the Failsafe gains a Vengekill instead of immediate return fire.

Just like I said.

[mastina]

Eh.
VOTE: MagnaofIllusion.
I'll give you this out of respect to the possibility, you have that much.

[Cheetory6]

For being obvtown :/ I guess that's where I went wrong, I don't think about mechanical stuff.

What other role was so great that they'd be afraid of it? Missile Silo seems better than everything except cop and doc at this point does it not?

RECK?
:/

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Cephrir's sudden absence and refusal to swallow the poison pill is very telling.