DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Andrius]

I forgot to include the following GIF in RECK's flip, so it has been added.

Spoiler:

Votecount

Lady Lambdadelta [1] - Vaxkiller
SpyreX [1] - mastina

Not Voting [9] - Everyone else

Nahdia is V/LA until 12/12.

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Projected Impact Times:
mastina (expired on 2016-12-10 01:01:07)
Vaxkiller (expired on 2016-12-10 01:27:42)

[mastina]

hiplop (totally the terrorist though)
Vaxkiller
Cephrir
Untrod Tripod

Nahdia
MagnaofIllusion
Cheetory
GreyICE
Lady Lambdadelta
SpyreX

This is where I'm at right now individually.
Though of note:

I do not believe the scumteam is SpyreX/LLD.

That's a modified either/or.
In that I think one of them is scum, and not the other.
But it's theoretically possible (albeit improbable) for both to be town. (If both are town, GreyICE is basically scum.)

GreyICE is scum if they are both town, but I'm really not sure if he's scum with one of them--it's possible either way. He could be scum with LLD, he could be not scum when LLD is. He could be scum with SpyreX, he could be not scum when SpyreX is.

My feelings about Cheetory and Magna are about equal.
Nahdia I had, five seconds ago, below Cheetory, but while Nahdia does look objectively bad via the VCA, I'm second-guessing calling them scum.

[Cephrir]

Oh hey. I'm not dying, at least temporarily. Had a busy day, but I did set an alarm in case I forgot to come back and post final thoughts.

I'll catch up later.

[Cephrir]

Admittedly having read nothing I don't know why I'm not dying and there probably is still a plan to make me dead and that's cool. I appreciate the extra time all the same.

[Cephrir]

At the risk of ~pushing it~ it occurs to me to wonder why my suicide was presented as urgent when we knew ut was setting an alarm. I almost bought into that.

[mastina]

Okay, so to explain things going through pair analysis: the first four I have on my list aren't Russians. We've established that.

So that leaves six names. Two of them are scum.

I do not think the scumteam is LLD-SpyreX. That pairing doesn't make much sense to me. It's a little difficult to explain, but I don't feel like that's the answer.

LLD-GreyICE is possible, if the husband and wife have planned a distancing routine: they've been going on and off against one another, but neither has really committed to the attack. Case and point: LLD has recently been screaming that GreyICE is scum, but she's not voting him right now.
I'm not sure if it's the most likely right now, though. I don't have anything suggesting this isn't the scumteam, but there's not much supporting it, either. I suppose there's the fact that both voted me--that seems like it's something which wouldn't happen if BOTH were scum.

LLD-Cheetory is possible. Looking through the VCs, aside from the McMenno lynch, they've not ONCE voted together the entire game on a lynch. However, there's not much supporting it, either.

LLD-MoI is possible, and presents the same situation as Cheetory: the only time they have voted together was on the SAD lynch. At all other times, they weren't voting together.

LLD-Nahdia presents a similar one as well, though they vote together on both the SAD and McMenno mislynches. For this reason, it's slightly less likely they are a scumteam than others.

So for LLD-as-scum, I'd rank the teams as, most to least:
LLD-Cheetory (

edit:

or not, realized they both were on Vaxkiller)
LLD-MoI (

edit:

or not; both were on Vaxkiller)
LLD-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
LLD-SpyreX.

For the SpyreX teams:
SpyreX-GreyICE is definitely possible: the two of them have not really interacted with one another, at all. Like, at all, at all.
Working against it is that they can and have voted together, often, in places it would be strange to pile on. For instance, both of them were voting me when UT was the large counterwagon to Something_smart. It would be a bit odd if the only scum on UT was Something_smart himself. Still, I suppose it's possible.

SpyreX-Cheetory is also viable, but makes me wonder why they would both be on the McMenno mislynch. They also voted together on Vaxkiller, where Something_smart and Spiffeh both were--I doubt all five scum wanted Vaxkiller dead. Though Cheetory being scum would explain the UT wagon in, say, 2662, so it's certainly possible, not exactly probable though. Especially since they also voted together on the UT wagon (2325).

SpyreX-MoI runs into a similar problem as Cheetory: if SpyreX and MagnaofIllusion are both scum, then between them, Spiffeh, Something_smart, and Nukebringer, literally every scum in the game would've been on Vaxkiller. For that reason alone, not a likely combo. They also would have been required to have bussed Something_smart along with both Spiffeh and Nukebringer (meaning the entire scumteam on their scumbuddy), which while not impossible, is...rather improbable.

SpyreX-Nahdia is rather viable, and in fact is the most likely of these combos: SpyreX was not on the SAD lynch, whereas Nahdia was. Nahdia avoided Errant and me. The only time they've voted the same person is McMenno.

So for SpyreX-as-scum, I'd rank the teams as, most to least:
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
SpyreX-MoI
SpyreX-Cheetory
(SpyreX-LLD)

For GreyICE, we start with GI-Cheetory: This presents the same problem as before, as both were on Vaxkiller.
GreyICE and Magna have voted together often, including on Vaxkiller, which places that as an unlikely team as well. That, aside from how if they were both scum they'd know Cephrir was the doctor, so this team's basically being auto-discarded.

By far the most viable of the teams left is GreyICE-Nahdia. Again, just like with SpyreX- and LLD-based teams, they don't vote together: the only time they are together is on the SAD lynch. At all other times, including on McMenno, they are separated.
So for GreyICE, we get:
GreyICE-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
(GreyICE-SpyreX)
(GreyICE-LLD)
GreyICE-Magna

Cheetory-Magna runs into the same Vaxkiller problem. Seriously, unless you think all five scum voted Vaxkiller, any combination which has two of SpyreX/Cheetory/GreyICE/Magna/LLD must, by necessity, be thrown out.

Nahdia

is

a viable scumbuddy, but it requires them to have both voted UT, as of 2579 and beyond: not impossible, but literally the only team which doesn't involve the whole scumteam voting Vaxkiller.

So, for Cheetory, we get:
Cheetory-Nahdia
(Cheetory-GreyICE)
(Cheetory-LLD)
(Cheetory-SpyreX)
Cheetory-MoI

And for Magna, we get:
MoI-Nahdia
(MoI-LLD)
(MoI-SpyreX)
(MoI-Cheetory)
(MoI-GreyICE)

Nahdia'd be:
Nahdia-GreyICE
Nahdia-SpyreX
Nahdia-LLD
Nahdia-Cheetory
Nahdia-MoI

Approximately.

But now I need to order them as a whole.

[mastina]

If I throw away "whole scumteam on Vaxkiller" pairings, I'm left with:

LLD-Nahdia
SpyreX-Nahdia
GreyICE-Nahdia
Cheetory-Nahdia
Magna-Nahdia

...Huh.

So, uh.

Either the whole scumteam was on the Vaxkiller lynch.
Or Nahdia is scum.

For Nahdia to be town, you must believe that there are two scum in LLD/SpyreX/GreyICE/MagnaofIllusion/Cheetory.
But all five of them were on the Vaxkiller wagon.

Granted, not all at the same time!
GreyICE and Magna joined while both SpyreX and Cheetory were on, sure.
But by the time LLD joined, Cheetory had hopped off.

Also, I have to confess, I made a mistake--Something_smart never did join the wagon, so it's not all five scum.
But point remains:

You must either believe four of the five scum were on Vaxkiller, or that Nahdia is scum.

[mastina]

Okay so ignoring the whole Vaxkiller situation.
I think this is my pairings feelings.
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-Cheetory
SpyreX-MoI
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

I don't have much confidence in this. It's just an approximation. I'm having trouble getting it more precise than this.

[Nahdia]

Hey. mastina.

Your VCA is complete garbage.

[Vaxkiller]

Why don't you explain why it is?

[Nahdia]

Because she's completely replacing 200 pages of content with a very very basic idea of "I don't think all scum will vote together". It's dumb.

[mastina]

Changed my mind a little bit.
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-Cheetory
SpyreX-MoI
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

The scumteams without any combination of GreyICE/LLD/SpreX moved down.

I really think at least one of them are scum. Both isn't impossible if it involves GreyICE, but isn't as probable. I really do think lynching in that group until we hit scum is for the best, because I don't see all three as town.

[Vaxkiller]

Mastina, I really think Nahdia is town. My top vote is still LLD. If I had to pick one of your combos I would pick LLD-Spyrex

[mastina]

Even more tweaks:
SpyreX-Nahdia
SpyreX-GreyICE
GreyICE-Nahdia
LLD-Cheetory
SpyreX-Cheetory
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
LLD-Nahdia
LLD-GreyICE
SpyreX-MoI
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia
SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

The relevant tweaks here are that Cheetory scumteams that have LLD/SpyreX/GreyICE involved move way up, because he is a huge candidate for being scum with one of the three.

[Nahdia]

I have mad respect for the amount of effort you're putting into this but quite frankly I don't see any value in it, sorry.

[mastina]

Mastina, I really think Nahdia is town.

Yeah and I think Nahdia has a huge chance of being town. You might notice my list right now is changing a lot because I'm running calculations off of possibilities and probabilities--Nahdia has play and circumstances that look town but a really shitty voting history. She's been consistently on town, and in areas where it looks like she was avoiding being on scum and largely avoiding the spotlight even. That's not something easy to ignore.
Still, trying this:
SpyreX-GreyICE
LLD-Cheetory
SpyreX-Cheetory
GreyICE-Cheetory
LLD-MoI
SpyreX-Nahdia
GreyICE-Nahdia

LLD-GreyICE
LLD-Nahdia
SpyreX-MoI
Cheetory-Nahdia
Cheetory-MoI
MoI-Nahdia

SpyreX-LLD
GreyICE-MoI

[mastina]

Like.

There should be value in what I am doing, here.
Because there are literally only six possible scum candidates (five if you are a name on the list): SpyreX, GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, MagnaofIllusion, Cheetory6, and Nahdia.

Both scum are in those six

.
So especially to those who are in the six (which means to them there are only five candidates).

I'm highlighting the pairs. Pair scumhunting was the technique I was going to use this game from the get-go if not for the serial killer (the technique I talked about wanting to try out waaaaaaaay back in 173), but since we've basically all long-since sorted that it's hiplop who's the terrorist, I can do pair scumhunting again. And I wanted those pairs highlighted.

Which pairs do YOU think are viable?
Which pairs do you think are totally unviable?

You can automatically exclude pairs including your name if you're in the five, and I don't expect you to point out how ridiculous a pair with you in it would be. (Though it certainly wouldn't do any harm.)

But those six contain the scumteam.
And therefore, it must be a pair between them.
I'm doing my best to give guesses, working off of what knowledge I have.
And given that I have a limited lifespan--I REALLY expect answers here. Because those answers can help me refine my reads here further.

[mastina]

Worth noting: if SpyreX didn't block hiplop, it's not necessarily a scumclaim, but the chances of him being scum go up drastically, since hiplop is basically known to be the serial killer and shutting the SK's nukes down can be nothing but pro-town.
Vice-versa isn't as clear: scum have two reasons to block hiplop. One, he nuked scum so nothing stopping him from doing it again. (He's a wildcard.) Two, for the town credit, because it's the action expected of him.

Let's say that the chances of SpyreX being scum started at 50%. If he didn't block hiplop, they go up to 60%. If he did, they go down to something like 45%. Adjust the starting percentage according to your read. (So, if 75% scum, then 85/70%; if 25% scum, then 35/20%, and so on.) It's not a huge tell or anything. It is, however, a potential indicator. Scum have more reason to let hiplop run free than town would.

[Cheetory6]

because he is a huge candidate for being scum with one of the three.

Sure!

[mastina]

because he is a huge candidate for being scum with one of the three.

Sure!

Damn straight.
We know hiplop's not mafia.
We can safely assume UT's not mafia.
I'm not mafia, either.

So if there's any mafia who hold a nuke...by necessity, that would be you.

Either you're town and the scum have no nukes (and are both PRs), or you're scum and are the scum's remaining nuke. (With one scum in the PRs.)

[Cheetory6]

Three scum with nukes have flipped.
If we're going to do lame as fuck probabilities that mean nothing, then I must be town then.

[Cheetory6]

Almost as if warbling over role distribution is fucking nonsense.

[Cheetory6]

I might as well roll a bunch of dice and point at them for how likely it is people are scum or town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I love when Mastin goes "both scum are in those 6" and then someone ends up listening to her and we lose because she's wrong.

You want facts, here are some facts:

The submarine remaining in this game is proven to be an SK Submarine.
I was targeted by Reck the night before that submarine successfully killed Papa Zito.
Ergo, despite how the kills work, I still cannot be the serial killer

Take that into consideration, and ask yourself this

Why would I, someone who is now confirmed to not be the serial killer, beg to be investigated by GiF as "Russian/Not Russian" for literally 3 days.
Since day 1, when GiF claimed, I've asked to be investigated. Why? Because my role is scummy as shit and I've laid out all that logic..
You cannot argue I' gambittting that GiF won't investigate me, because why would I ever take that risk? It makes no sense

So basically, we need to look at the people who are DESPERATE for me to die today or tomorrow by lynch. Those are the scum. The scum have only a limited pool of potential mislynches remaining and I'm one of them.

This argument that I'm setting up an endgame is bullcrap.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

ALSO FUCK THIS

VOTE: GREYICE