DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Andrius]

Vi replaces Cheetory6.

Votecount

Lady Lambdadelta [2] - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta
SpyreX [2] - Nahdia, Cephrir

Not Voting [5] - Vi, SpyreX, hiplop, Untrod Tripod, MagnaofIllusion

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Nahdia is V/LA until 12/12.

Projected Impact Times:
hiplop (expired on 2016-12-11 00:00:35)

[Nahdia]

hi vi

[SpyreX]

Hahahah ohhh snap

[Vi]

You didn't really think you could have a throwback game without me showing up sometime, right?

I am confirming in. I have only read the first 50 pages and Day 4, so I am going to need a little time and help catching up. It shouldn't take long.

In the meantime, please enjoy this mood music.

[Untrod Tripod]

everything went better than expected

[SpyreX]

Have a bottle of booze ready vi you'll need it

[Untrod Tripod]

it gets real funny when the nukes drop

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Unvote

[Lady Lambdadelta]

dope mood music + respect for Vi means I care again

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks god ... Sad to see Cheet go but the relief of Vi versus Kats is almost off the chart.

[Vi]

@Andrius: Does Radar pick up Day-activated abilities?

[Andrius]

@Andrius: Does Radar pick up Day-activated abilities?

Negative, it cannot track Silo or Submarine launches, or SMDefense Interceptions.

[Vi]

Nahdia--
Would it be correct to assume that you would claim you have never targeted anyone?

[Nahdia]

Correct.

[Cephrir]

Thanks god ... Sad to see Cheet go but the relief of Vi versus Kats is almost off the chart.

[GreyICE]

Vi! Welcome!

[hiplop]

Can you cancel your nuke on me vi

[Vi]

Can you cancel your nuke on me vi

no

like maybe I'd consider it if I could
but I'm one of those nerds who reads the rules
so I can't

so while we wait for the inevitable, anything you want to say?

[Vi]

First, let's begin by clarifying the game state. <DanganRonpa music goes here>

Let's look at the role distribution.

Fighter (Role Cop) = RedCoyote (Town)
Night 1: ??
Night 2: ErrantParabola (not helpful)
Dead Day 3, nuked by Papa Zito (Town)

Espionage (Cop) = GuyInFreezer (Town)
Night 1: Fate (not helpful)
Night 2: hiplop (not Russian, about to be moot)
Result is irrelevant for Night 3, killed by Russians.

Aircraft Carrier (Roleblocker) = xRECKONERx (Town)
Night 1: ??
Night 2: This string of posts suggests LLD.
Night 3: ?? (not any of the nuclear silos)
Killed by the Terrorist on Night 3.

Battleship (Doctor) = Cephrir
Night 1: Cheetory6 (not helpful)
Night 2: GuyInFreezer (kill blocked on this Night)
Night 3: Cheetory6 (not helpful)
Currently alive. Results may be inaccurate.

Radar (Tracker) = ErrantParabola (Town)
Night 1: GuyInFreezer (targeted Fate, corroborated, doesn't really matter)
Night 2: hiplop (went nowhere)
Nuked Day 3 by Accountant (Town).

Covert Ops Team (Nuke Blocker) = SpyreX
Night 1: irrelevant
Night 2: I missed it but it turned out to be irrelevant
Night 3: Mastin (never confirmed as the nuke of text was recalled)
Currently alive. Results may be inaccurate.

Counterintelligence (Framer) = Nahdia
Night 1: As far as I can tell this is irrelevant.
Night 2: Presumably no one if Nahdia is Town. Potentially relevant outcomes include {hiplop, Espionage, not-Russian} and {hiplop, Radar, nowhere}.
Night 3: As far as I can tell this is irrelevant.
Currently alive. Results may be inaccurate.

Submarine (Secret Nukes) = Papa Zito (Town)
Day 3: Hits RedCoyote (Town).
Killed on Day 3 by the Terrorist Sub.

Eavesdrop (cause of real silliness in secret places) = Vaxkiller (Town)
Got stuff that's inthread somewhere.
Nuked on Day 4 by hiplop.

Air Base (Ascetic) = GreyICE
Currently alive. Technically the claim is unproven and such but etc.

Fallout Shelter (Un-nukeable) = Lady Lambdadelta
Currently alive. Technically the claim is unproven and such but etc.

Fail Safe (Counternuke) = MagnaofIllusion
Currently alive. Technically the claim is unproven and such but etc.

Strategic Missile Defense (Nukeblocker, the archnemesis of Nukebringer) = Ircher (Town)
Day 3: Brought down a nuke shot by Untrod Tripod aiming at xRECKONERx (Town).
Nuked Day 3 by Nukebringer (I made that joke two lines above without noticing this) (Russian).

Three Russians out of five are dead. Their kill targets were:
Night 2: Blocked. Options for why include {targeting GreyICE, LLD being the killer??, targeting GuyInFreezer (Town), utter carelessness}.
Night 3: GuyInFreezer (Town).

The Terrorist is still in play. Their kill targets were:
Night 1: Fate (Town)
Night 2: Spiffeh (Russian)
Day 3: Papa Zito (Town)
Night 3: xRECKONERx (Town)

All other players have nuclear silos. Ignoring the long stream of Town-on-Town angst, these are the ones that are relevant now.

hiplop nukes Nukebringer (Russian)
Untrod Tripod nukes xRECKONERx (Town) (but nuke was shot down by Ircher (Town))
Cheetory6 nukes Accountant (Town)
Mastin (Town) nukes Cephrir, but recalls it.
Untrod Tripod nukes Mastin (Town)
hiplop nukes Vaxkiller (Town)
Cheetory6 nukes hiplop

There will be, following hiplop's death, two Missile Silos in the game - belonging to me and Untrod Tripod.

---

Last thoughts before moving on to, y'know, actually read the thread (which I imagine will be less helpful than making this post).

1) Why was Fate killed?
2) The most difficult role to deal with - the Air Base - is still alive going into the endgame. I get why; the fact that it and the Fail Safe managed to sandwich together is kind of hilarious. However, given that I am Town and making the (at this point rather dubious) assumption that UT is Town, the Russians have no way whatsoever to unilaterally kill GreyICE beyond endgaming him. (The Terrorist + Sub does not have this problem.) Given the options of {Lynch GreyICE / Nuke GreyICE / leave GreyICE alive} without further thought about his allegiance, I'm not really sure what the optimal play is, but I think I would strike off nuking him simply because as long as he's alive, if he's not Russian, the window for the Russians to win is small and closing. Like for real 3p LyLo kingmaker closing.
2c1) Terrorist+Sub makes for some truly interesting LyLo dynamics in general.
2c2) The chance of the Russians targeting GreyICE for their kill, given that Nukebringer had a chance to nuke GreyICE and didn't, is pretty low. (They themselves would not have known for sure why their kill failed.)
3) Why hasn't LLD been going nutso over trying to decode the scum leaks? She's SO GOOD at codes, y'know.
4) At this point all of the power roles have failed us. That is the conclusion of this post. Normally I'd chug the wine and say Cephrir is Town despite letting the Cop die but I'm not going to given the circumstances and the possibility of Cephrir+LLD being scum. The two remaining missile silos (yes, including the one I replaced) have performed abominably (as have all the other missile silos tbf) because lol policy lynches don't work, and there's nothing left now. Whatever happens now is going to be on the strength of reads. :/
4c1) Despite just saying lol policy lynches don't work, I can't begin to express how glad I am to replace into a game right after all the new unreasonable spammy yelly people have been killed, leaving me with all the warm and familiar unreasonable spammy yelly people. Like I'm being serious.
5) Oh wow I'm only just now looking forward in the game state and:
*After hiplop dies there will be eight players left.
*The Terrorist Sub will almost certainly launch. (Seven players)
*We sure are lynching someone Today. (Six players)
*One, probably two people will die overNight. (Four players)
*And, of course, the Terrorist Sub will fire again. (Three players)
*Do we want to include the outside chance that me or UT will survive and get to nuke someone?
What I'm saying is that you people really screwed up /}

After hiplop dies this may need to be re-evaluated - I'm assuming a Town flip - but there's a non-zero chance that this will be the last non-formality lynch we get. Right now the Terrorist is in pretty excellent shape to win the game AFAICT; the path to victory for both the Americans and Russians goes through the Terrorist dying before Day 5 opens and the team with the advantage going onward is based on whether there are any crosskills.

This is, again, without actually attempting to read the thread for comprehension. If people would like to explain why they think so-and-so is Town based on game state stuff I'd be happy to hear it, but I'm waiting for a fliplop before doing anything too big.

[Vi]

also while I'm spamming the thread, likewoa I just noticed that there's an option to bump the topic. when did this happen and who thought it was a good idea

[Cephrir]

[Cephrir]

fuck now i want a new one to watch.

[Vi]

but yes continuing my useless Mafia theory

ideally we hit Terrorist Today, and go to 5p LyLo (because Terrorist Sub)
if me, UT, and Moai are alive Town can direct kills on four out of those five people

if we hit Russian Today (RT) we very likely wind up with 1-1-1 or 2-0-1/2-1-0. The former is 0% for America; the latter is generic LyLo.

if we hit American Today then... eh, I don't really want to put much thought into it

so yeah
would be sweet to find Russians to make 'em sweat but it's legit third-party hunting time for Town
get on my level JEEP

--
@Cephrir: I was thinking more the Climax Inference resolution music but I'm not turning down an investigation theme

[hiplop]

Can you cancel your nuke on me vi

no

like maybe I'd consider it if I could
but I'm one of those nerds who reads the rules
so I can't

so while we wait for the inevitable, anything you want to say?

Surely an exception can be Granted b.c no one was in the slot when it could be recalled

[Cephrir]

that seems rather unlikely.