DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Vi]

Yet you see where I'm going with this, correct?

[SpyreX]

Maaybe?
Is there an ending thats moi and nahdia?

[SpyreX]

So assume ceph is dead

Nuke
Nuke
Failsafe
Fallout
Airbase
Counterint
Sabotage

We lynch non nuke going into night.
Assuming town we're at 3 2 1. Eerrr

[SpyreX]

Too many variables. I cant see a clear route.
Weve got 2.5 nukes assuming theyre town owned. That's not enough to clear it unless a cross kill and setup lynch for when the.bombs land
Not to mention either you or ut sk could deploy defensive and i dont think that's fixable

[Vi]

I'm really confused by how many and which scum you're looking at. Judging from how everyone in the game has written off Nahdia (and frankly if Nahdia is scum she's outplaying everyone else) and considering you yourself just said MoI-SK was your thought, I'm going to guess no.

Then, look at it like this.
*It has been basically agreed that Nahdia is Town. No one is voting Nahdia without an enormous shift in opinion.
*It has been basically agreed that Cheetory and/or me is Town, barring GreyICE plying some of the most excellent meta since... the last time someone tried to use meta on me. No one is voting for me without an enormous shift in opinion or a tremendous lack of credibility.
*No one has expressed any interest in MoI being scum. GreyICE calls Town, you've called Town, LLD calls Town, UT seems to have mistaken this for a Mardi Gras planning thread and is attempting to hand out penis beads. No one is voting MoI without an enormous shift in opinion.

Then, there are four players remaining after Cephrir dies (we should only be so lucky for it to hit UT or GreyICE instead). Which of these is the last Townie?

I

can't decide... but presumably each of you in the four should have a very good idea. Just how badly do you have to suck to miss any of three scum in a pool of three people?

Of course it's not perfect. It's possible that one of the three remaining scum is not in the group of three for some reason, and it looks like that person is generally thought to be MoI... who is generally assumed to be the Terrorist if not Town... and as a reminder, we're not up for lynching the Terrorist Today. So can you hit one of two scum in a group of three?

And

that's

why I'd recommend you four get voting, and let the other three decide how to pick the pieces up.

@Nahdia

, unvote as soon as feasible, if you would.

[Nahdia]

UNVOTE:

fwiw, MoI and I have expressed doubts on each other.

[SpyreX]

If you're talking about today then yes I'm not voting nahdia, moi or you.

So play pretend with me. Assume its a scum. Is grey right and 4 1 1 better than 4 2

[SpyreX]

Or is it actually best to force cross kills? It seems counterintuitive but is the right move here a mislynch as drunk as it sounds

[Vi]

...I beg your pardon? Could you tweak your Talking Pet a bit?

[SpyreX]

4 2 1 the terrorist pretty much has to hit scum. Scum cant afford a free nuke either in the sub so they want the terrorist.

Whereas 4 1 1 they need to whittle town.

[SpyreX]

Look im riddled with fourth guessing myself I'm not the man i used to be

[Vi]

It seems counterintuitive but is the right move here a mislynch as drunk as it sounds

This sounds kind of drunk. Who, exactly, were you planning on mislynching?

[SpyreX]

Bullet to my head id vote greyice for scum, ut for sk right now.

Pedit.
Myself duh

[SpyreX]

If the right move is town, at minimum that means theres 0 chance of sabotage tomorrow and it probably forces clarity for the sk on kill choices for.scum


But i worry that I'm missing something key

[Vi]

Also and for the record hitting Terrorist Today goes to 4-2-0 -> 3-2-0 and if UT is Russian and I'm the NK that's game over. Otherwise you hope whichever silo is alive can hit Russian or else it's the same outcome. UT being Terrorist is kind of hilarious and if that happens then you get vanilla 3-2-0 LyLo with a side of scorched earth if MoI isn't Russian.

Hitting Russian Today means 4-1-1 and power roles happen to such an extent that it's not flowing out of my NyQuiled brain atm.

3-2-1 means if the Terrorist doesn't die overNight they win or force PD or somesuch. Like I'm open-minded but I don't see how lynching Town is ever better than not lynching Town.

Honestly the idea of UT-Terrorist makes this whole thing kind of cool.

Also I think we can probably assume that the two scum factions know who each other are at this point, at least to enough of a degree to get out of Night 4 crosskilling if they want.

[SpyreX]

Ut or you firing a nuke with the other dead would be instant lynch still leaving moi as a prayer in the dark.

Right 3 2 1 is telling scum you want a chance you better do it right and vice versa. That is my way of saying you guys better be better rhan we are but... well..

[Andrius]

Votecount

SpyreX [1] - Cephrir
Lady Lambdadelta [1] - GreyICE

Not Voting [6] - SpyreX, Untrod Tripod, MagnaofIllusion, Lady Lambdadelta, Vi, Nahdia

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Nahdia is V/LA until 12/12.

Projected Impact Times:
Unknown: (expired on 2016-12-12 17:40:58)

Nuclear Detonation does NOT reset the Votecount.

[GreyICE]

Why wouldn't we be lynching LLD exactly? She jumped straight from me = scum to me = SK. It's a classic 100% scum thing to do - to be forced to try and make convincing arguments that someone is scum, and then logic yourself into actually believing they're scum, and jump to the one type of scum that they could possibly be.

Plus if we wagon any other scumbutt in the town they'll just claim SK at L-1 and stick us with a stupid fucking choice. I mean at least the SK will know where to shoot if they're aiming for scum, but good god I don't want to play the game of "do we lynch the claimed SK"

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Bullet to my head id vote

greyice for scum, ut for sk

right now.

Pedit.
Myself duh

Hey GreyICE, what do you think of this? Calculated or honest?

[Untrod Tripod]

I choose option C: dumb

[MagnaofIllusion]

So now that I am back from V/LA I’m going to drop my thoughts about every other living player into thread before going back to look over what back and forth I missed.

So without further ado –

Category – TOWN

UT – If I had to put money on a player being Town to win the game (besides myself, duh) this is the slot I chose. He’s not Commie scum given he was a strong counter-wagon to SS scum Day 1 (like Vax). And I don’t get the sense he’d double up his Sub Nuke on PapaZito given the “in the air” Nuke already going Papa’s way. I need to fully review that timeline and when Spyrex claimed the sabotage on mastin but I know UT isn’t stupid. So for the moment he’s Town and if you don’t like it you can suck it.

Category – DOESN’T MATTER MY READ

Cephir – Odds seem favorable he’s getting Nuked in a little bit. Regardless if that’s wrong and GreyICE is the one going up in a mushroom cloud I really don’t care what alignment Cephir is. He isn’t living long as any alignment with that Role. If he’s Town both sides can’t have him living another Night as he can complicate endgame with the Doc protect. As either non-Town alignment the same holds true … the other side can’t have him mucking around with their kills / nukes. So there is no real need work hard to sort him. That said – there is little reason for me to think he’s Commie. I don’t see it making sense that as Commie with the Doc ability he’s immediately throw away the shield from lynch the role gives him by immediately not defending GiF the next Night and catching flak for it.

Category – NOT SERIAL KILLER

LLD – Reck claims Night 2 block on her and has no reason to lie as Town. The Terrorist Sub nuke went off Day 3. She can’t be the Terrorist.

Spyrex – Main reason I have him here is he deploy choice … as the Terrorist he risks pissing of Town and Commies by possibly being able to prevent their Nukes form happening. That’s a disaster in this game where everyone’s deploys are going to come out fairly soon.

Nahdia – Same reason effectively as Spyrex given her choice. Flying solo and asking for Policy Nukage may be a “Ask for it so you don’t get it” kinda gamble but it makes no sense for a Terrorist to go for that Assignment and pre-emptively claim you were going to Day 1. And mastin’s “I chose everything” proves she has it.

Caegory – NOT MAFIA

GreyICE – Night 2 lack of Mafia kill almost certainly proves he’s not Mafia as the missing Commie kill should be his doing. Why I say this – there is no scenario where Nukebringer (and the Equinox head specifically … look at the last posting before he dies .. that’s not Fire) as scum doesn’t eliminate GiF with his LOL-Nuke instead of GiF given they killed him Night 3 unless they knew it would fail. Which points to them suspecting Doc protection (or knowing it with Cephir scum) and knowing their kill failed on Grey not GiF. Now why they Nuked Ircher and not Grey? Hard to say.


Category – EVERYONE ELSE

Vi – If you are here there is no overriding reason I can clear you of either scum alignment. Cheet looked pretty Town but in the back of my mind I have some worry about that his “Spiff you buddying bastard” comment was scum theatre. Also my reading of Vi’s posting since replacement has my gut at “Looking at who can be mislynched” as opposed to game-solving. Could just be an artifact of phone skimming which a full read at a computer should help with. My one hold-up on Commie Vi is that it would require 4/5 scum to have missed deploys or the Scum team specifically choosing to go a minimalist deploy route. Also not sure Cheet would target Fate Night 1. The Spiffeh shot Night 2 however does make sense from Cheet.

If I had to call right now who I think is what?

GreyICE as Serial Killer – the kill on Fate makes sense, his claiming his role in advance of today’s Sub Nuke might indicate he unconsciously wasn’t worried about being Nuke since he controls it. Not overwhelmingly confident. If it isn’t Grey or Cephir (which we find out soon enough) then Vi is pretty much has to be it.

LLD and Nahdia – I’ve been reading LLD as scum since very early on in the game and today’s play doesn’t dissuade me from that. Nahdia has basically been coasting on the “Oh, I’m choosing Counter-Intelligence Policy Nuke me” stance. Both solidly Town-read each other at a time when paranoia about the Serial Killer should be running high which coincidently is also the time Commies absolutely cannot afford to bus. Both have deploys and we already have three Commie Nukes already flipped.

Lastly Nahdia’s “These four are the ones I have issue with” reads is already 0-3 (0-2 for those of you who aren’t me) and I don’t see a LLD – Spyrex Commie team with Spyrex’s saborage on mastin. Them as partners would not care if mastin was going to lolNuke the claimed Nuke-proof. And since I’ve already stated why I thought her group of 4 showed little Town perspective I don’t need to rehash that.

So that’s where I am at right now. Need to read back the weekend to see if that changes my stance.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why wouldn't we be lynching LLD exactly? She jumped straight from me = scum to me = SK. It's a classic 100% scum thing to do - to be forced to try and make convincing arguments that someone is scum, and then logic yourself into actually believing they're scum, and jump to the one type of scum that they could possibly be.

Plus if we wagon any other scumbutt in the town they'll just claim SK at L-1 and stick us with a stupid fucking choice. I mean at least the SK will know where to shoot if they're aiming for scum, but good god I don't want to play the game of "do we lynch the claimed SK"

Also you're ignoring my read progression on you.

I thought you were scum when I thought you were Fail Safe.

When you turned out to be Air Base instead I quickly realized you were basically not scum, but you were still scummy, so I started looking at your behaviour through the lens of "could he be SK" and it 100% fit.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So catching up on the thread –

We aren’t lynching Vi’s slot today (for reasons made clear by 5344). Not that it really was a likelihood but I wanted it posted right up from that we have to have a successful lynch on some flavor of scum today.

Also LLD’s Self-Vote is something I would expect from her Scum game – it is a pure AtE and WIFOM “why would I do that as scum” move given the timing when it was pretty much assured no lynch was happening while Nukes were airborne.

I have some issues with Vi’s VCA at 5494. Personally looking at those I don’t see how LLD and Nahdia don’t stick out like sore thumbs.

Despite scum reading Nahdia I think 5546 is a very valid point.

--

That's fine. If you honestly think I'm scum, fine. But you keep making reasons why I should die despite my being town. That's scummy to me; you're basically giving yourself an out regardless of my flip. When I flip town, you can just say "well I already said why they needed to die even if they're town". I'm not making justifications for why my bottom four need to die regardless of their alignment, I'm just saying "these are the people who I'm not townreading. I want them dead because I think there's a good chance we find multiple scum in them".

Just wanted to revisit this for a couple of reasons –

1. I should point out that nowhere in my 5012 initial post that Nahdia reacted to did I call her Town who has to die. And even 5021 isn’t outright calling her Town – that’s just me doing exactly what she is claiming in the above – specifically thinking that she’s scum but wanting to make sure that if my read is wrong Town isn’t boned because of it for Nuking her slot.

2. I want Nahdia on record as of right now – for the “finding multiple scum” in her group to be true both Spyrex and myself HAVE to be scum.

@Nahdia]

– do you think both Spyrex and I as scum of whatever flavor still?

if hiplop flips town, I can only assume SpyreX is the terrorist, even though I find that totally baffling. i can't comprehend anyone else nuking Papa Zito there when a nuke was already flying towards him. MAYBE untrod?

See this is the sort of post that makes me think she’s absolutely not game-solving. She expresses doubt that Spyrex would have no reason to Sub Nuke Papa since a Nuke was flying in the air at Papa at the time. Yet that makes no sense given Spyrex knew mastin’s nuke was a dud. So SK Spyrex would know that Papa was living.

And yet Nahdia tries to pass of Untrod as the person who MIGHT have done it when Spyrex would know he wasn’t dying. I agree that it isn’t Spyrex for other reasons but this shows to me Nahdia is not actually thinking about the game and game-state (despite her saying she is “rock solid” on mechanics earlier).

Which lines up with Scum motivated play – look active but not actually be doing the work behind the scenes. I see the backpedal when Spy points it out and the saving throw of “Oh, why would Terrorist chose Sabotage” which is correct. Not convinced.

I realize no one is pressuring me rn (except MoI kinda) but just wanted to point out that unless I'm scum with Cephrir as my partner, taking that huge risk in shooting GiF is some serious meshugaas coming from me. With radar dead I could just let GiF get false checks.

Umm … Gif staying alive points right to you being able to give false checks …

So, just a recap. Whoever is the SK shot a nuke at Papa Zito while a nuke was already in the air towards him, and the only person who knew it was going to fail was SpyreX (and if he's Russian, any partners ofc)

It still follows that whoever make that shot is either SpyreX themselves or severely lacking attention to detail. That's why I thought strongly it was hiplop but apparently not.
Also, it being a weekend when the sub shot off, I'm thinking MoI is clear of being the terrorist unless Andrius allowed him to queue up a sub shot for midway through the weekend.

Um …

1. Whoever shot the Sub at Papa was the Serial Killer so it is irrelevant if Spyrex as scum told his partners since they can’t be the Serial Killer by default.
2. Andy would totally allow for a queued up Sub Shot and I could do it from my phone so the reason for clearly me here is very weak.

--

1a) Is anyone actually questioning Nahdia-Town?
1b) Is anyone thinking of questioning Nahdia-Town in the future?

Yes times two.

--

I felt and still feel Cephrir MUST DIE for his actions is letting GIF die, and wanted to force a situation where if town Cephrir truly felt conviction in his Mastin stance, he'd swallow the pill, confirm himself as town, and watch Mastin die in a nuclear glow.

Let me point out again why this is a Scum perspective post? As I have said before Cephir is going to die Commie / SK or not. That role is too dangerous to the other side at this stage even without the Sub Nuke possibly resolving the issue.

Yet LLD absolutely wanted there to be no chance of a Night protect if she was wrong (and we see soon enough, a Town Ceph flip and this is pretty damn strong) and Cephir was Town by pressuring him to suicide.

They don't take 2 nukes and leave themselves open to jsut about every feasable form of random death possible in the game.

So remind me – were you a proponent of Hiplop SK at any point?

--

I'm having trouble figuring out who LLD's scumbuddy would be. You (Cheetory) seem out based on the replace out interactions, Nahdia seems out, Cephrir seems out, that leaves MOI, UT and Spy? And I think both MOI (failsafe-scum? Plus townread?) and UT (counterwagon to scum, although he has been generally not amazing) are not likely and that's leaving SpyreX by POE.

Um there is no way Spyrex Commie sabotages mastin who has been publicly claiming to want LLD radioactive if LLD is his partner given he HAD to know she is Nuke-proof.

So your PoE is bad here …

[Cephrir]

just say no, kids

[Nahdia]

@Nahdia] – do you think both Spyrex and I as scum of whatever flavor still?

Yes.

See this is the sort of post that makes me think she’s absolutely not game-solving. She expresses doubt that Spyrex would have no reason to Sub Nuke Papa since a Nuke was flying in the air at Papa at the time. Yet that makes no sense given Spyrex knew mastin’s nuke was a dud. So SK Spyrex would know that Papa was living.

And yet Nahdia tries to pass of Untrod as the person who MIGHT have done it when Spyrex would know he wasn’t dying. I agree that it isn’t Spyrex for other reasons but this shows to me Nahdia is not actually thinking about the game and game-state (despite her saying she is “rock solid” on mechanics earlier).

Which lines up with Scum motivated play – look active but not actually be doing the work behind the scenes. I see the backpedal when Spy points it out and the saving throw of “Oh, why would Terrorist chose Sabotage” which is correct. Not convinced.

Umm … Gif staying alive points right to you being able to give false checks …

Um …

1. Whoever shot the Sub at Papa was the Serial Killer so it is irrelevant if Spyrex as scum told his partners since they can’t be the Serial Killer by default.
2. Andy would totally allow for a queued up Sub Shot and I could do it from my phone so the reason for clearly me here is very weak.

Ok, stop.

Magna, are you actually this incredibly horrible at reading or are you willfully interpreting my lines in these completely ridiculoius ways so you can justify seeing me as scum and make me out to be stupid? You have some heavy confirmation bias, dude. Most of this doesn't even warrant a response. You sound like you're talking down to a five year old kid and I'm not having it.