DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Untrod Tripod]

I don’t think anyone left alive is incompetent enough to have fired of a Terrorist Sub at a target who is already slated for Nuclear Death due to not paying attention. Which means very probably that they felt PZ was enough of a threat to them that it was worth wasting their Defcon3 stealth nuke in case PZ had been Doc protected.

Remaining Living Players that PZ mentioned as scum or “needing death” –

Nahdia – 428, 440, 499, 516, 772, 3303, 3324,3403
UT – 2303

it's almost like the terrorist would want to eliminate possibilities of being nightkilled or nuked. can't imagine why that would be.

I don't understand, are you advocating that Nahdia is the terrorist, or are you saying it's a hamhanded framejob?

[Untrod Tripod]

Mm. Gotcha.

also Vi is waffling back and forth between me being terrorist and Russian, even though the arguments for those things is *profoundly* different. both possibilities can't exist in the same read of the gamestate unless you are just angling to eliminate threats.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Nahdia can I beseech you to put your faith in me and my read?

[Nahdia]

You can beseech me, sure. I'm just not sure I'm on board. If you frequently scumread GreyICE when you play together why wouldn't he kill you early? I kind of believe it when he says he would.

[Andrius]

Votecount

GreyICE [3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Untrod Tripod [1] - GreyICE
SpyreX [1] - Vi


Not Voting [2] - MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Projected Impact Times:
n/a

Nuclear Detonation does NOT reset the Votecount.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI, has your opinion changed about GreyICE being the SK?

Not completely. My hurdle for it is the timeline. Why does GreyICE fire that Sub Nuke BEFORE Spyrex claims to have sabotaged mastin? If he felt PZ was a threat why not simply hit him with the Terrorist Nightkill.

I mean the kill on Reck suggests he was more worried about not being able to Sub Nuke if blocked but why not Sub Nuke Reck in that case? I’m having a hard time reconciling how that Nuke went off given what I just dug up.

Do you disagree with my timeline or analysis?

--

Ah yes, my brilliant master plan as terrorist; pick the framer/lawyer role, explicitly say im picking it, acknowledge early on that there are scenarios under which i will need to be utility nuked. A role that will bait the ACC, which at the time I thought stopped the kill. Yes, brilliant. Man I'm good at mafia.

This is pretty bad as responses go.

1. You were not going to get ACCed for your claimed role. The role you should have been worried about was Radar and wham – Terrorist doesn’t care as the Radar doesn’t see the Nightkill, you can quietly sit and not CounterIntelligence like a Good Little Townie, and begging for a Utility Nuke seems to served you well to not get nuked doesn’t it. Also – you aren’t going to get targeted by the Commies as your claimed role is no threat to them.

--

it's almost like the terrorist would want to eliminate possibilities of being nightkilled or nuked. can't imagine why that would be.

I don't understand, are you advocating that Nahdia is the terrorist, or are you saying it's a hamhanded framejob?

Fact remains that besides PZ had a hard on for Nahdia and probably had her next after Red Coyote if he survived. And let’s be real – what Nuke is the most dangerous to the Terrorist? The one that can’t be easily intercepted and doesn’t immediately say “This is my target”.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You can beseech me, sure. I'm just not sure I'm on board. If you frequently scumread GreyICE when you play together why wouldn't he kill you early? I kind of believe it when he says he would.

Because I had no cred.

Think about it, when have I ever gotten my way this game so far? Never. Not once.

I had no sway with lynches.
I didn't have a nuke.
And while he thought I was scum for a while, it didn't matter because he's not night killable.

He thought he could get me lynched later because of my role, so killing me never benefits him, espcially when I made a deliberate point to publically ignore him and not try reading him until Day 3 or so.

There was just never a good reason to kill me.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

MoI, has your opinion changed about GreyICE being the SK?

Not completely. My hurdle for it is the timeline. Why does GreyICE fire that Sub Nuke BEFORE Spyrex claims to have sabotaged mastin? If he felt PZ was a threat why not simply hit him with the Terrorist Nightkill.

I mean the kill on Reck suggests he was more worried about not being able to Sub Nuke if blocked but why not Sub Nuke Reck in that case? I’m having a hard time reconciling how that Nuke went off given what I just dug up.

Do you disagree with my timeline or analysis?

--

Ah yes, my brilliant master plan as terrorist; pick the framer/lawyer role, explicitly say im picking it, acknowledge early on that there are scenarios under which i will need to be utility nuked. A role that will bait the ACC, which at the time I thought stopped the kill. Yes, brilliant. Man I'm good at mafia.

This is pretty bad as responses go.

1. You were not going to get ACCed for your claimed role. The role you should have been worried about was Radar and wham – Terrorist doesn’t care as the Radar doesn’t see the Nightkill, you can quietly sit and not CounterIntelligence like a Good Little Townie, and begging for a Utility Nuke seems to served you well to not get nuked doesn’t it. Also – you aren’t going to get targeted by the Commies as your claimed role is no threat to them.

--

it's almost like the terrorist would want to eliminate possibilities of being nightkilled or nuked. can't imagine why that would be.

I don't understand, are you advocating that Nahdia is the terrorist, or are you saying it's a hamhanded framejob?

Fact remains that besides PZ had a hard on for Nahdia and probably had her next after Red Coyote if he survived. And let’s be real – what Nuke is the most dangerous to the Terrorist? The one that can’t be easily intercepted and doesn’t immediately say “This is my target”.

If I could explain the PZ nuke, I'd have all the answers. I frankly can't.

But the manner in which I won PYP mafia has taught me that just because one portion of somethign doens't make sense, doesn't mean we should clear him for it.

All the othe circumstantial evidence points at him being the SK. Every other piece fits.

Where as with UT/SpyreX theories, it just doesn't fit. It really doesn't. There are less pieces.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

it's entirely possible Grey next leveled us and read into SpyreX's posts and assumed Zito would live. It's also possible he just really wanted to make sure that the other Sub was dead.

Because what's the biggest threat to an unkillable SK? A hidden nuke that he can't reason with or scream at to be recalled.

That's my theory.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also of some import – the last scum totally doesn’t want the Serial Killer lynched today. Because that puts a massive, massive dent in the Commie’s chances of winning tomorrow.

--

This means GreyICE is clear of being Russian btw. Unless you think Russia no killed. Which I mean, maybe.

No way on God’s green Earth Commies no-killed that Night after losing Something Day 1.

Grey is certified not Commie.

--

So you think i tried to convince my partner to kill himself on a nuke that wouldnt hurt and then have him climb up my ass so hard my response got a be civil from the mod.

You do know this is like pure crap, right? Ceph was not killing himself regardless given he was Commie so your “Oh Ceph, do the right thing and suicide” easily could be posturing.

--

@MoI: Could you explain the whole doubled-nukes thing about UT? It's been said a few times and I didn't understand it any of those times.

You’ll have to be more specific if you want me to explain this since I’m not clear on what “Double Nukes” means.

If it means “Can the Serial Killer not have a Silo and the Sub” then my answer is that theory is out the door.

the vote counts basically show the scum team imploding from day 1 so idgaf about counterwagons plus he could be Terrorist+butts.

Explain this because I very much disagree. Given only member of the scum team who got ANY pressure was Something I have a hard time getting into a head space that “VCA shows an imploding team”.

[SpyreX]

And getting be civil from.the mod? Also posturing?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Untrod Tripod [7] -

mastina

,

Papa Zito

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx

,

Nukebringer

, SpyreX

Something_Smart

[7] -

GuyInFreezer,

Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

,

Cephrir

,

Accountant, MagnaofIllusion

,

Spiffeh

Vaxkiller

[3] - GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta,

Fate

Ircher

[2] -

McMenno, ErrantParabola

McMenno

[1] -

Ircher

GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] -

Vaxkiller

Not Voting [2] -

hiplop

, Nahdia


Untrod Tripod [8] -

mastina, Papa Zito

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, xRECKONERx

,

Nukebringe

, SpyreX,

Fate

Something_Smart

[7] -

GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod,

RedCoyote

,

Cephrir

, Accountant, MagnaofIllusion,

Spiffeh

Vaxkiller

[1] - GreyICE

Ircher

[2] -

McMenno, ErrantParabola

McMenno

[1] -

Ircher

GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] -

Vaxkiller

mastina

[1] - Lady Lambdadelta

Not Voting [2] -

hiplop

, Nahdia

Untrod Tripod [5] -

mastina

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

Nukebringer

,

Fate

mastina

[5] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito, GuyInFreezer

, Untrod Tripod

Something_Smart

[5] -

RedCoyote

,

Cephrir,

Accountant, MagnaofIllusion

,

Spiffeh

Ircher

[2] -

McMenno, ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller

[1] - GreyICE

McMenno

[1] -

Ircher

GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] -

Vaxkiller

Not Voting [3] -

hiplop

, Nahdia,

xRECKONERx

Something_Smart

[8] -

RedCoyote

,

Cephrir

,

Accountant, MagnaofIllusion

,

spiffeh

, Untrod Tripod,

GuyInFreezer

,

Nukebringer

Untrod Tripod [4] -

mastina

, Cheetory6,

Ser Arthur Dayne, Fate

mastina

[3] - Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX,

Papa Zito

Ircher

[2] -

McMenno, ErrantParabola

Vaxkiller [

1] - GreyICE

McMenno

[1] -

Ircher

GuyInFreezer

[1] -

Something_Smart

SpyreX [1] -

Vaxkiller

Not Voting [3] -

hiplop,

Nahdia,

xRECKONERx

See looking at these four successive Vote Counts I have a real hard time seeing Untrod as scum.

For that to be the case scum had to have dueling wagons on them, had a window where unpopular Town mastin is tied with both of them, and chosen to have broken to a quad bus on Something Smart as opposed to any scum landing on mastin.

Not seeing that.

However Untrod as Town (or specifically not Commie) has me seeing Cheet and Spyrex in places I would totally expect a partner to be.

[Vi]

Vi talking like GreyICE can still be scum is like watching someone desperately try to cling to the last remnants of hope for their game.

I... suppose it's not

completely

impossible for you to take that message away from two posts where I basically said it was SpyreX and UT.

@Moai 6012: Protecting PZ over the Cop? When evidence strongly pointed to a failed kill anyway, therefore the Doc protection wouldn't apply? I don't think the intentional double-up theory holds.

Dude

[Fate]

is like the Gordon Ramsey of MafiaScum.

I would enjoy Fate so much more if that was true.

Explain this because I very much disagree. Given only member of the scum team who got ANY pressure was Something I have a hard time getting into a head space that “VCA shows an imploding team”.

Looking at the scum in isolation and also looking at the vote counts I got the distinct impression that they were all after each other. Except Cephrir who didn't want to attack anyone ever.

No way on God’s green Earth Commies no-killed that Night after losing Something Day 1.

Grey is certified not Commie.

I want to protest, but at this time I have no better argument for what happened N2. None of the explanations make sense.

I do, however, like the idea of GreyICE not being Russian simply because he's the one person Russians cannot unilaterally kill and

oh look

he's the person at L-1. I find the idea of lynching someone out of {LLD, UT, SpyreX} to be incredibly attractive for this reason.

[Untrod Tripod]

the one person Russians cannot unilaterally kill

what a great deployment for the SK, huh?

[GreyICE]

the one person Russians cannot unilaterally kill

what a great deployment for the SK, huh?

Yeah, I mean if you were such an excellent player that you regularly got night killed by scum right off the bat it would be an excellent choice for SK. It'd also be an excellent choice for town good enough to get night killed right off the bat too.

If you were kinda jerkass lurker town who tends to end up in LyLos because they're just good enough to not be the slowest person in the room when the lynch comes about, but lynchbait enough the scumteam didn't try and kill them ever, you'd have a dilemma. You'd want more kills to accelerate the game so the lynch couldn't get around to you, but you'd want some way to dodge the dayvigs too. Hey, could there be something that does both?

Untrod Tripod, who was a Mafia roleblocker, has survived the endgame.
Untrod Tripod, who was Card Guard, Eight of Hearts, and Town Compulsive Bodyguard, has survived to Endgame!
Untrod Tripod - Killed Night 4 - Town Even-night Rolestopper
Untrod Tripod, Mafia Rolecop, survived
Untrod Tripod has commited suicide Night One! He was A Sanskrit Kitten, Town Regal Conditional Tracker.
Untrod Tripod, shot Night Two, was Sebastian Montes, the Town Constable.
Untrod Tripod, Clue Mafia, Miss Scarlet (Town) - Killed in Endgame
Untrod Tripod, Coover Bennett, Mafia Goon, survives and wins with the mafia.

I mean like seriously, here's how it works. Either you have a strong town power role, or you survive to endgame. You survived to endgame as a compulsive bodyguard. You're some strange species of weed that isn't useful for anything but can't be killed.

Now tell me what you found compelling about LLD's arguements.

[GreyICE]

By the way, that was just browsing the last bunch of games you've played in.

You've committed suicide due to weird role restrictions in a UPick more often then you've been night killed by scum without a strong power role.

[Untrod Tripod]

sorry, was that you trying to insult me, or...?

[Untrod Tripod]

but you'd want some way to dodge the dayvigs too. Hey, could there be something that does both?

having a sub and a nuke deployed doesn't allow you to dodge dayvigs

[Nahdia]

Nukes can be put in defense mode.

[Untrod Tripod]

yeah I know. I haven't done that, though.

[Untrod Tripod]

basically that long post summarizes as "yeah, the role I took is a good pick for SK if you're good at mafia. but you're not good at mafia therefore ?????????"

it's just a dodge and he's just hoping to get a rise out of me

[Vi]

GreyICE, a (very) charitable interpretation of your posts against LLD, me, and UT is that you have no idea what's going on.

Would you like to join this SpyreX wagon? I've already laid out the case, and I would throw in that SpyreX has to have a hidden Sub because if you rearrange the letters in his name you get "sexy PR" and so far he's claimed something totally lame so he

has

to be holding out on us.

[Untrod Tripod]

Mother. Of. God.

[Vi]

Everywhere I go people refer to me as that or Jesus Christ or the like, and yet I stay so humble~

[Untrod Tripod]

Maybe I should post a list of your recent mafia deaths. That should take you down a peg.