DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Andrius]

Votecount

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Not Voting [4] - Vi, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX, Lady Lambdadelta

It is now Day Five, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/29/2016.
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Projected Impact Times:
Vi: (expired on 2016-12-18 10:05:49)

Nuclear Detonation does NOT reset the Votecount.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Moving on?

[Vi]

To SpyreX. The conversation with UT has pretty much played out.

[SpyreX]

Assuming this isnt some exercise in bizarro ego, you are town. Asking you questions is how i hoped to win the game with input there's 0 reason to distrust.

Because like nahdia its easy to himm and haw. Blush of it is if ut hadn't went defensive id have voted lld without much hesitation.

So if the questions and answers game is why am i town what do you want from me. I was super wrong about spiff, down with ss and nuke and yesterday it should be clear both that i dont fought with parters that way and i assumed ceph was flipping town and scum there was a pipe dream wish. Jesus i even was wondering if killing me made today the right move

[Untrod Tripod]

don't suppose you'd want to talk to me?

[SpyreX]

I was focused on vi what with the real deadline.

Like mostly i think you're town. Like i said i thought you were sk. Never mafia

[Untrod Tripod]

[SpyreX]

Why defensive. Just put my mind at ease. I cant imagine coming into today not being able to wield the big stick

[Lady Lambdadelta]

It's really hard to determine if SpyreX is scum or just missing brain cells if he really thinks I could be scum here.

[SpyreX]

Hurr yes me are dumb and bad i know me only chew on keyboard till letters come out

[Vi]

I'm here. Free from the pressures of work and keeping up with the game, I've had time to read the thread (yes, yes, dead people, I imagine I hear you) and I'm pretty close to ready to make a decision. I'll begin typing my recommendation now.

[Vi]

But first, some hilarious posts in hindsight (not including basically every .gif posted but yes all of those count).

TOWN
mastina
cheetory
Something-Smart
hiplop
Cephrir

SCUM
SpyreX
Untrod Tripod

k that's all ive got for now

no clue what to think about LLD atm. inclined to believe mastin's read but idk. the whole GIMME THIS USELESS THING SO I CAN BE A CODEBREAKER AND REAL TOWN HELPER seems forced and actor like and ugh.

p.edit: i have no idea what you're talking about

I love how Ircher's read on me is just "he's scum because the things he did are indicative of scum."

98% terrorist takes sub and a defensive or ends up at sub n silo

other people I would proxy my nuke to: Reck, Spyrex, LLD

i think you're overestimating here and severely

for example here is a list of players who would scare me more than fate if i were scum

1. SpyreX
4. MagnaofIllusion
8. Lady Lambdadelta
11. Cheetory6
13. xRECKONERx
16. GreyICE
17. Ser Arthur Dayne
19. hiplop
23. Spiffeh

[NORAD SYSTEM] Reanalyzing flight trajectory…
[NORAD SYSTEM]

ERROR: MULTIPLE TARGETS DETECTED: GreyICE, Papa Zito, Nukebringer

[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate in (expired on 2016-12-05 12:44:46)

This was the Terrorist nuke D3.

LLD and Spyrex are my kneejerk scumreads.

I really don't see why Nahdia/you/Vax are out of the pile though.
Like, sure? I flux between thinking there's townie moments from you and Nahdia and to some extent I struggle to imagine Vax being able to come up with all of this for so long.
But that's literally nothing that would make me pull all of you out of the sortpile entirely. That's fucking ridiculous.

Vi is one of my favourite retired mods.

*Capt. Falcon salute*
After D4 I was pretty demoralized by how, even with your mental state when you exited the game, you could have done as well or better than me had you stayed in the game.
But now that I've had a chance to get a grasp on the game, I'm going to end it in a way that, right or wrong, won't be an embarrassment.

Also as a general comment GuyInFreezer >> everyone in this game and it's not even close. Like I know from experience that a Cop role gives you superpowers but you can't tell me that D1 play wasn't on point.

[Vi]

So first let's talk about Untrod Tripod.

Here's where he voted Something_Smart. The vote count at this time was like 11 votes on Vaxkiller and people like SpyreX (among others) were on the "more wagons more nukes please let's get it over with" train. This looks like a vote that scum with any skill would not make, but after that the scum started wafting suspicion onto S_S (without voting), so I can play along with this not being totally indicative of the two being of different alignments. As an example of this being what would have to be a hard bus here's a sample post of UT continuing at it even under the threat of a huge wagon, even to the extent of putting S_S over Mastin at equal votes.

Now let's check out 2764 where Something_Smart claimed Cop. Check out these sweet reactions:
Cephrir - immediately jumps off
Untrod Tripod - calls him on it repeatedly and begins what might be the strongest play he's ever had all game
Cephrir gets c-c-c-called out and awkwardly muddles
Lady Lambdadelta - expresses no opinion whatsoever and instead asks to be Copped!
SpyreX - ambiguously unvotes
Spiffeh - jumps off with next post before attempting to push UT through, but then starts offering to have a wagon on someone else (Nukebringer being one of those - would Spiffeh bounce from one scum wagon to another scum wagon before offering to push a wagon on a third scum?) It actually works and the wagons disintegrate into chaos.
SpyreX - does not vote UT again, even if it's not a hammer it would be L-1

Also consider that UT went for the even harder bus by calling out Nukebringer. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first time UT mentioned Nukebringer as scum but I didn't find the previous time in my second pass.

So either you think both Spiffeh and UT are doing Vi-tier listen-to-me-and-I-will-lead-you-through-all-my-buddies-before-going-uh-oh-ha-ha-idk-lol bussing or UT is pretty hardcore Town. This isn't even factoring in the rest of the gameplay which IMO favors UT being Town muchly given what we know.

I do not support an Untrod Tripod lynch.

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Now let's consider Lady Lambdadelta versus SpyreX. This was actually quite a bit more difficult, because superficially both of them have the same actions throughout the entire 250-page thread, except SpyreX has mostly cruised in other peoples' wakes with a beer in both hands since he didn't need one to keep on the nuke button.

Here's Post 26, where Something_Smart comes in and begins posting in such a way that even when I was reading this thread for lulz in the Atlanta airport I wanted to nuke this slot.
1) SpyreX wants to nuke it, and is the first person to suggest it. Later in 874 he calls him again on faking dumbTown.
2) UT comes close behind.
3) LLD actually never mentions him

at any point(!!)

first mention in post 2424, but DOES spend a lot of time going on about the previous game and setup spec rather than getting into the back and forth of everyone accusing everyone (except Mastin, perennial pinata). I mean look at this a bit later when LLD starts hitting all around Something_Smart (continues to next page).

More from unimportant phase trolling...
934 - LLD calls Cephrir Town on the back of Nukebringer saying the same.
968- SpyreX calls Cephrir out
1228 - SpyreX calls Nukebringer out unprompted (hindsight makes this whole exchange pretty funny)
1841 - SpyreX calls Spiffeh transparently Town

Now let's look here, where UT gets to L-1. SpyreX has already claimed to hammer whoever, and yet isn't even on the UT wagon... and in fact votes S_S instead. As scum he'd have motivation to whine a bit before going onto his scumpartner even if he ultimately would.

Now let's look at 3078, where LLD argues forcefully against Something_Smart's wagon. Note that this and the post above where she asked to be investigated are literally the only times she has made any reference to the leading wagons, which is more damning than being wrong here. Instead she spent most of her time doing what she had been doing for most of Day 1, making personal attacks on Mastin because lol!mastin and otherwise :arguingwithscum: . But she sure as hell could empty-vote Something_Smart the instant GiF claimed. (Fair 'n' balanced: SpyreX did the same here.)

In Day 2 we can see Nukebringer and SAD getting competing wagons. UT went for Nukebringer as he lined up earlier; LLD does not a few posts down (taking the larger wagon without further explanation or commentary). SpyreX doesn't jump on the wagon, which looks better in hindsight but isn't really a strong indicator. He never makes it onto the SAD wagon.

On Day 3 both of them took the ErrantParabola wagon without making much effort to do much about it (for some reason LLD did this instead of voting Mastin). Both of them frankly sucked on accuracy in general. LLD made this weird string of posts saying Reck should get nuked but was probably not Russian (aside, but GreyICE pushing Reck-scum so hard really should have been a giveaway since that was basically an SK Cop in this setup), plus making the false assertion that Reck thought LLD targeted him for death. This is SpyreX's response to Reck's correct accusation that SpyreX basically ordered the Reck nuke.

I don't really care that LLD pushed for Cephrir to die D4 because that was pretty much what had to happen once the Cop died. It's probably the only actual forceful gameplay-related thing LLD did all game other than ask to be investigated, play with eavesdrops, and push GreyICE.

Note that if you buy into the scum hitting GreyICE D2, a scummerson would not make the post SpyreX did here.

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So now let's get to LLD's arguments for why she CAN'T be scum.

*Asking to be investigated as a high-priority investigation role as scum from Day 1 onward - This started as a response to S_S's Cop claim, which is suspicious af. Plus, so what? If the Cop said LLD was scum, then the Cop's scum. Or the Counterintelligence is scum. If the Cop isn't someone reputable like GiF that's two bodies well ahead of you, plus she can't be nuked so there will probably be a lot of people dying other than her on the way to the lynch. Besides, LLD never claimed her role until Day 3, so it's not like there was a REASON for GiF to investigate her, just handwavey softclaiming. (Why wouldn't you hardclaim Fallout Shelter if your goal was to get investigated and/or die at Night?)
*Thinking GreyICE was the Fail Safe at great Personal Risk - Once again, the two roles that MUST die for the Russians to win are Air Base and Fail Safe. Scum already knew who the Air Base was, because they attempted to shoot it. They didn't get an option except to waft suspicion on GreyICE anyhow, and obviously they couldn't claim they knew GreyICE was Air Base, and they needed to get the Fail Safe into the open anyway. I don't see a contradiction here (beyond the usual "why did Nukebringer nuke Ircher", which frankly no one can explain and I'm okay with that). (Full disclosure: SpyreX barely mentioned GreyICE except to call Town.) Besides, what personal risk from calling GreyICE the wrong thing? I didn't exactly see anyone queuing up to skin a cat until D4.

As for who on the Air Base wagon was scum - which 100% needed to happen Yesterday for the Russians to win - I'm going to say it's Lady Lambdadelta because it's pretty unlikely that SpyreX was like "oh heyo free jump onto wagon on PERSON I NEED TO SEE DEAD NO MATTER WHAT"

Also Fallout Shelter, scummy deployment, etc.
Also trufax everyone who has argued that I'm scum because I'm some Master Manipulator has been scum or Benmage.


Based on all of the above,

I conclude that the last scum is Lady Lambdadelta.

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Purely to supplement, I'm going to quote this.

I don't think LLD is Russian because hell, I don't know, I doubt her rage came from scum, call me naive.

I fully expect LLD-scum to be capable of and willing to weaponize Cheetory's depression in order to get him to replace out, regardless of whether there was a tactical advantage to be gained.

TBQH I really don't want to be another statistic where LLD survives to endgame as scum, this time with a scummy deployment that has been remarked over and over again in this thread to be 100% consistent with her scum meta to take.

But I also don't want her to win at my expense because of how she got Cheetory to replace out.
Like that shit needs to get dunked on and if I were really clueless and couldn't decide in 3p LyLo I'd hammer that without apology.

Look I've only been in this thread almost a week now and I've had two late nights and one morning lost to it.
This is already way too much attachment to this game for my tastes and if it comes down to justice then here it is.

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It doesn't matter if I live or die, all the same people need to vote, and I actually do want to die a painful radioactive death because frankly that would make for a much more interesting mod scene.

Vote: Lady Lambdadelta

(L-2)

So it ends.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

....

HOW IS THAT A VALID ARGUMENT FOR GETTING THE FAIL SAFE IN THE OPEN?

THE SECOND CEPHRIR CLAIMED DOC SCUM KNEW WHO THE FAIL SAFE WAS, BECUASE THEY HAD KILLED GREYICE

YOU're FUCKING STUPID

[Lady Lambdadelta]

LITERALLY IF I ALREADY KNEW MoI WAS FAIL SAFE I SHOULD HAVE SAID NOTHING AND JUST LET THE CLAIMS OCCUR NATURALLY.

BUT INSTEAD I TOOK A DIFFERENT ROUTE THT MAKES NO SENSE AS SCUM

[Vi]

Correction, the scum knew who the Fail Safe was before Day 4 opened, because Cephrir was scum and they targeted GreyICE. Ultimately it doesn't matter.

Also I'd say I'm not sure who would target GreyICE of all people - who was playing the same UTR game you were - with a kill N2 but that would be a lie.

Conclusion is unchanged.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Correction, the scum knew who the Fail Safe was before Day 4 opened, because Cephrir was scum and they targeted GreyICE. Ultimately it doesn't matter.

Also I'd say I'm not sure who would target GreyICE of all people - who was playing the same UTR game you were - with a kill N2 but that would be a lie.

Conclusion is unchanged.

Then I can only be glad that you're not the one whom this game hangs upon.

Assuming you're not trolling right now.

[Vi]

Despite your assertion that you would look at both of the other "living" players, and despite having had time and motivation to do so, you have not.

Despite me

actually laying out reasons

why the person you have been pushing is very probably not scum and despite saying the other person is probably not scum with misgivings, your response was only to the parts that concerned you.

And, you're arguing with someone who, if this goes into overtime, neither will be around to cast a vote against you nor will be around for you to suggest lynching. Extra points for that person being demonstrably Town.

This is empty self-preservation. Be ruined.

[SpyreX]

Vi maybe you can help me with my one biggest concern.
Why the defensive today that has me all wigged out. Like i said earlier this page once gi flipped sk i was fairly confident in ut town. But that makes me hesitaaant

[Untrod Tripod]

look man, I didn't see any reason for me to have a nuke out today. who am I gonna nuke? my expectation was that we either end the day in 3p or 2p and I wanted to show that I'm absolutely not going to try any shenanigans by not even having the option available to do so.

[Untrod Tripod]

4p, 3p, or 2p*

[Vi]

IDK. My Sabotage was lined up, it wouldn't'a worked on Fail Safe, who else was going to nuke UT. The only thing it would do is stop wacky one-Day nuclear fire sales.

More importantly, does that outweigh what I posted above?

[Vi]

also I would point out that UT's claim is not provable, but again, does that outweigh what I posted above

[Untrod Tripod]

^exactly

the option to have the ABM be useless or have the nuke, which would allow me to possibly do some edge-case bullshit

[SpyreX]

I guess maybe i am the only one into scorched earth

Pedit no ultimately it doesnt