At the beginning of the day, I did not consider Flay as a suspect. I was suspecting Setael and Gunslinger/Oman.
The first post that started to hint that something was different about Flay was 817. There, he ripped into Adel, then voted Setael and FoSed almost half of the remaining players (Jerub, me, and to a lesser extent, AA and Adel). Then he seems to say that he can't be scum because he would not play so transparently if he were. In the very next post, 818, he sees the need to stop the "nonsensical bandwagon" that was growing on him. This I find odd because Adel's vote in 814 was a clear pressure vote and was the only vote on him at the time. AA mentioned some suspicion of Flay in 806, but it is relatively clear that he was only expressing a thought and not going after Flay in earnest. Jerub was the only player applying any real pressure and he had not even voted yet. I was a little suspicious of Flay at this point, but not enough to think he was scum.
In 825, I find it odd that Setael seems to lambaste Adel for her vote (on Setael), like Adel was the one that was responsible for driving the wagon on her. Why didn't she mention Flay's vote on her (that started the wagon) or my vote? Then in 856, Setael mentions that she didn't think anyone was bussing -- the only possibility could be Flay, but she didn't even think he was. Then Setael echoes Flay's earlier meta defense that Flay is an experienced player and that he would have been more careful than that. Kind of looks to me like she defended him here, thought I didn't catch this until a reread.
In 881, that's when Flay says the Setael wagon is WAY too convienent, points out that she found something nobody else did when she voted for Korlash, then unvotes her. I ask Flay in 882 why he voted for Setael when he thought her reason for a vote on Korlash was justified. Flay responds to me that there has been a LOT of wagon pushing on Setael and thinks some of her detractors may be Korlash's buddies. In 889, Setael wants to know who came up with the theory that she held onto the contradiction she found against Korlash because that person will be her new top suspect. I looked it up and found that that person was Abstract Actuary. Then Setael agrees with Flay's interpretation that it is weird for town and for scum. At this point, I wondered why Setael was focused on AA for coming up with the theory that she was holding on to information. That seemed like a really weak reason for a vote on AA when she could have given a much stronger reason for a vote on Flay or myself. I admit, the theory may not have been very likely, but it was possible. Also, when Flay started a bandwagon on her, she never seemed very concerned about it.
Also in 881, Flay voted AA. I never really liked Flay's case against AA because I am pretty convinced that AA is town, based on his desire for caution and the high quality of answers he has given. I agree with AA on his opinion that Day 2 ended too quickly, and I continue to like his responses today. When Flay pointed out AA's Day 1 support of Korlash, I thought it was kind of bogus because a lot of people seemed to still be unsure of Korlash then. In 614, AA declared his support for a Miztef lynch, but his comment on Korlash was "I admit that Korlash has posted a lot, and a lot of crap, but he seems to readily admit that that is how he always plays. In my experience mafia members tend not to play that way on day 1." I could see how this might be a subtle attempt at defending Korlash, but I would tend to agree with AA's statement, so I don't see how that makes AA scummy. I think it is consistent with AA's cautious nature, which I understand because I feel the same way.
In 895, Flay mentions how the wagon against Setael is making him nervous even though HE started it. At this point, Setael only had 2 votes on her because I unvoted way back in 838. Flay repeats how it makes no sense for Setael to hold onto the contradiction and how he has no evidence that Setael bussed him, so she fell to his second tier of choices. In 910, I pressed him by asking why he felt that way when he started the wagon, and Adel and I were pro-town in his eyes. He had no answer in 911. If Flay thought that Setael was suspicious enough to vote her and in 911 he admits that he cannot explain why he unvoted her, why did he not revote her then? Even after a couple of gentle prods from Jerub and myself, Flay did not try to answer until 946, so I think he was being evasive. On reread, I think it is likely that Flay never seriously intended to push a Setael wagon and was trying to search for a way to get off of her wagon without drawing suspicion.
We all know about Adel's immovable vote placed in 955. At first, I thought she was nuts for suggesting it without presenting any case on Flay, so I demanded an explanation. More on this later.
Things started to get more clear for me in 965, where Setael said she could not see Flayscum and declares she will not be joining his wagon due to Adel not presenting a case on him. I can understand not voting at that point, but I find it odd that Setael has not been able to seriously consider a Flayscum or find any kind of fault with Flay at all on Day 3 (and probably before that -- didn't she say before that she respected Flay's experience so much that even if he were scum that she would follow him into LYLO?) It seems to me that Setael has either a serious case of idol worship (unlikely), or she is trying to lead the discussion away from Flay and help deflect for him (more likely). At the very least, Flay has been somewhat evasive on replies to my questions, something that Flay himself admitted, to a point, at the end of 895. At this point, I started rereading, looking at a potential Setael/Flay pair. This is when I started to think that Adel wasn't nuts and began to look at things deeper.
In 975, Flay labels Adel's vote as a gambit and says that it is ill-advised, giving four reasons why, that all appear to label Adel's vote as foolish or misguided. I have a problem with that, because regardless of Adel's jumping to conclusions a bit, an overreliance on statistics on Day 1, and love for gambits, I do not agree that Adel would make such a foolish play without a reason. I do not think Adel was playing a gambit. I am going to wager here that Adel is not stupid. Voting for Flay and stubbornly denying demands to state her case were likely to be met with resistance, and it's quite obvious if Flay were to come up town, then Adel would probably have the noose around her neck already by the time the night scene were posted. I think it is more likely that Flay is scum.
If I read the situation correctly, and I hope I am, I think there is another explanation why Adel did what she did. I encourage the other townies to consider this also.
Vote: Mr. Flay
