Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Adel]

" It does make it look very much like, when the wagon took off quicker than expected, you needed to find a reason to jump off."
full of truthiness

[curiouskarmadog]

unvote

changed mind...watching what comes out of the Adel/Jerb/Flay conversation before (re)voting.

[jerubbaal]

Will very likely be unavailable through the weekend, picking my gf up from school and all that.

[Mr. Flay]

I'll be very clear with the questions: What was it about the Set wagon which bothered you so much

The Setael wagon grew MUCH faster than the Korlash wagon, despite Korlash' broad range of scummy behaviors. It's also unusual for a wagon to develop solely on the basis of lurking on D3, though I admit the players in this game may be unusual in that regard, or I haven't played enough lately to adapt to the new meta regarding lurkers. The case evaporated somewhat when Anata112's newbie role came up Townie, but until recently I liked Jitsu and Adel as pro-town. I'm not sure what to think regarding Setael right now, but I'm leaning town.

and why was your case against AA so contrived?

I'm not answering this until you can find a way to phrase it that doesn't meet the "so when did you stop beating your wife?" trap. Suffice to say, I throw a lot of suspicion out there, on a lot of people. I'm not afraid to vote people, or unvote them when I'm wrong.

[Adel]

The Setael wagon grew MUCH faster than the Korlash wagon, despite Korlash' broad range of scummy behaviors. It's also unusual for a wagon to develop solely on the basis of lurking on D3, though I admit the players in this game may be unusual in that regard, or I haven't played enough lately to adapt to the new meta regarding lurkers.

What about the Oman wagon?

[jerubbaal]

Ok, do you acknowledge that the case on AA was weak and why did you feel that it was worthy of a vote at that point?

[curiouskarmadog]

unvote

changed mind...watching what comes out of the Adel/Jerb/Flay conversation before (re)voting.

still here..still waiting

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 1006

jerubbaal (1):

Mr. Flay

Abstract Actuary (1):

Setael

Mr. Flay(3):

Adel, Jitsu, jerubbaal

Not Voting (4):

Sudo_Nym, Abstract Actuary, Oman, curiouskarmadog

9 alive, 5 will lynch.

Abstract Actuary, Jitsu, Setael, and Sudo_Nym have been prodded.

[Jitsu]

I'm responding to my prod. Expect a longer post tonight.

[Oman]

back and off limited access, I'm really sorry about my crappy contribution to the game, but it just occured at a bad time (I'm sure Adel's meta found that I wasn't posting in any games).

[curiouskarmadog]

hmmm, guess jeb/adel/flay are done?

[Abstract Actuary]

I came into this day with no reason to suspect Mr. Flay. Since then some decent cases have been brought up against him. The thing troubling me the most has been his general weak defense.

I'd still like to hear more from Adel regarding Mr. Flay and who he thinks Mr. Flay's partner is (once whatever trap he is waiting for is sprung).

Are we waiting for more from Oman? Or has his entry into the game been satisfactory?

[Oman]

I've found that Mr Flay has been quick to vote people during this game, but I have not found him quick to unvote if wrong.

[Mr. Flay]

What about the Oman wagon?

What about it? I notice it's disintegrated since my own wagon started, but I'm not sure what you're getting at. I wish you'd speak less in riddles and 'traps' and more about what you actually think...

Ok, do you acknowledge that the case on AA was weak and why did you feel that it was worthy of a vote at that point?

The case on AA was probably weaker than I thought, because of who else was on the Setael wagon at the beginning of D3 (Adel & Jitsu). But that doesn't make my point about AA's claim about me 'forcing' him to give a third partner for Setael any less valid in my opinion. He's had a lot of suspicion to throw around today: Setael, jerubbaal, Mr. Flay, Sudo_Nym and GunslingerKB...

And this post screams "do I bus my partner or not"? - note that his very next post, after daybreak, asks what to do after a Mafia lynch.

More later.

[jerubbaal]

This post seems to acknowledge that you felt "forced" off of the Set wagon by the additions of Adel and Jitsu. I understood, at that point, that you still considered Adel and Jitsu to be rather pro-town. Jitsu has been pretty hard after Anata/Set the whole game, I find it hard to believe that you considered him jumping on the wagon strange. And, despite your hostility toward him, you still seem to consider Adel as fairly town. If your move is not predicated by suspicions on one of both of them as scum, the rationale doesn't hold together, at all. Please be precise about your suspicions in the matter and the rationale behind your action.


There is enough content that has been brought up in this conversation that the excessive fence-sitting which has been going on is entirely inappropriate. Far too many people are playing the "wait and see" game without contributing to the conversation at all.

[Adel]

actually I thought that jerubbaal was flay's partner, until jerubbaal joined me on the flay wagon, now I'm a little mystified.

[Sudo_Nym]

I have to say, Mr. Flay's playstyle is different from what I expected. Admittedly, I've never had him as a fellow player, but after modding 3 of my first 4 games, I somehow pictured him being more like Adel has turned out to be.

So far, my big three are Flay, Adel, and Jer- which I imagine is the same list everyone else has, barring those three themselves.

[Jitsu]

Actually, I thought I had Adel figured out, but when she answered that she started suspecting Flay ~Nov 30, that kind of poked some holes in my theory behind her motives.

As has been the case for most for this game, I find myself wanting to reread more. But for now, I still find myself coming back to Flay and Satael as a pair. In addition to all the other evidence, they are the two people whose reactions toward each other I can explain the least. Setael seems to be deflecting for Flay repeatedly, and Flay's opinion of Setael has changed from guilty, to suspicion on her detractors, to undecided about her, to her being innocent without a really good reason why. The conspicuous lack of direct interaction between the two of them makes me suspicious.

More things that are bothering me about Flay:

Flay's reasons for the lessening suspicion on Setael are inconsistent. At first, he unvoted her because she had a good reason for her Korlash vote on D2. That's true, but then shouldn't he have had that fact in hand when he voted her? When pressed further, he said that there has been a lot of wagon pushing on her and that he wanted to investigate the less obvious suspects. That's fine, but why does that help to clear her? Then Flay stated that he was nervous about the wagon on her today but could not explain why when confronted with the fact that Adel and I were pro-town in his eyes then. And finally, he said that he didn't like how quickly the wagon formed compared to Korlash's. Well, that could be a valid point, but if that was the reason all along, why not say so? (I can think of several reasons why the first few votes on Korlash were slower: after the second vote, people naturally would have wanted to spend time reading meta and rereading the thread. Also, the holiday weekend was about to start and some player's availability, including myself, was already reduced -- whereas, for the Setael wagon, Flay, Adel, and myself were all logged on about the same time.) Overall, I just don't like how the reason seemed to change throughout today (but has generally improved as the day went along).

As recently as 996, Flay still seems to be claiming that we are lynching him based on Setael's scumminess. I did of course, make that one post that presents the case of Flay being a pair with Setael, as I think it is a likely explanation of events, but when asked to provide points on Flay that were not because of Setael's behavior (in response to Setael's request), I did. In particular, the points about Flay leaving Setael's wagon are not because of anything Setael did today. It sounds like Flay is saying "You keep making a case on me based on Setael's scumminess because you can't make one on me alone," which really isn't true.

I have a problem with Flay's post 975. I don't like how he indirectly speculated on Adel's role. Doing that in the context of trying to denfend himself does not sound pro-town to me, especially since he was still reluctant to declare Adel guilty in that post. It sounded like Flay was trying to argue that whatever Adel's motivation was, Flay had to be innocent. In my mind, and in light of his actions today, it's just as likely that Flay is simply guilty. When I read it, I also thought it could have been an attempt at rolefishing. If this is a limited reveal game where only player's affiliations are given (town/scum), then the scum have to work harder, since they cannot ever be sure who the power role(s) are and if they are alive.

As for Flay's comments in regards to 908, I don't really see much of a disavowal by AA. AA said that Jerubbaal was his top suspect, followed by Gunslinger/Oman, with Setael third. If AA felt that way, then it would make sense that he did not *necessarily* agree with the premise that Setael is scum (if Jerub and Oman are, then it's likely that Setael is not). AA could have still felt Setael-scum was a possibility, though not necessarily true, though I wish AA would have just said that if that were the reason. I tried to reread to see if AA was trying to cover up something here, but in context of all of his other pro-town comments, I just can't believe that AA is scum right now.

Also, Flay acknowledges in 996 that AA's suspicions have been mostly consistent, but in 1013, he seems to be attacking AA for casting a wide net of suspicion. Isn't that just a *bit* hypocritical given how Flay at different points today has voted or FoS'ed *most* of the remaining players?

As for Korlash, I still don't think Flay understands what he lied about. Nobody is saying Korlash lied about *being* a roleblocker. What people are saying is that he lied about *knowing* that such a role exists. Initially Korlash claimed he tends to be very good at being a Mafia RB in #521. Then in #585 he expresses surprise that the Mafia RB exists. The dates on those posts were 2 days apart!


@Flay:

Why are you leaning towards Setael being town now? What has changed to make you think that? In 996 you basically agree Setael is trying to tie herself to you and that she is still on your list of potential scum, but then in 1003, you are leaning toward her being town. What makes you think that? Why would Setael tie herself to you if she is town?


@CKD:

I'd like you to comment on the Flay/Adel/Jerub interaction and say what you think. I'd also like to know where your suspicions lie.


@Oman:

I'd like to see your opinions on all the players in general (since you seemed to focus only on certain people so far), and on who your suspects are in specific.


Flay and Setael are my top two (roughly equal in terms of suspicion), and I would support a lynch of either one today. Next suspicious would be Oman (still kind of lurking in plain sight even though he's posteds ome content). I think there's an outside chance that Sudo, Adel, or Jerub could be scum, but not really likely at this point. I don't have much reason to suspect CKD or AA right now.

[curiouskarmadog]

@CKD:

I'd like you to comment on the Flay/Adel/Jerub interaction and say what you think. I'd also like to know where your suspicions lie.

dont really know what to think about the F/A/J interaction. I am not liking any of three, but really can not put my finger on why. Also not a huge fan of Set's play this game, but dont think she is the lynch today (but my mind could change). I feel like Jitsu is town....nothing else at the moment is sticking out to me.

[Setael]

But for now, I still find myself coming back to Flay and Satael as a pair. In addition to all the other evidence, they are the two people whose reactions toward each other I can explain the least. Setael seems to be deflecting for Flay repeatedly, and Flay's opinion of Setael has changed from guilty, to suspicion on her detractors, to undecided about her, to her being innocent without a really good reason why.

Jitsu, though you have listed reasons for suspecting Flay that don't have to do with me, you are still flagging us as a scum pair and basing a lot of your suspicion on that. To put it into perspective for you, pick a player you generally believe to be innocent. For argument's sake, I'll pick ckd for you since I don't remember you suspecting him much. Now for the sake of our little role play, imagine you are a townie. Players start posting that they think you and ckd are scum buddies and in fact many of their reasons for suspecting ckd are based on the fact that they think YOU are scum. You don't know ckd's alignment, of course, but you do know YOUR alignment and therefore know that they are making incorrect assumptions about ckd. How would this affect your reaction to the ckd case? Would you defend him, or at least state that you don't agree with the case on him?

Maybe this will clarify things for you. I could be wrong about Flay, but if it's being assumed that he and I are BOTH scum, I find myself disregarding the arguments since I know the foundation is flawed.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, though you have listed reasons for suspecting Flay that don't have to do with me, you are still flagging us as a scum pair and basing a lot of your suspicion on that. To put it into perspective for you, pick a player you generally believe to be innocent. For argument's sake, I'll pick ckd for you since I don't remember you suspecting him much. Now for the sake of our little role play, imagine you are a townie. Players start posting that they think you and ckd are scum buddies and in fact many of their reasons for suspecting ckd are based on the fact that they think YOU are scum. You don't know ckd's alignment, of course, but you do know YOUR alignment and therefore know that they are making incorrect assumptions about ckd. How would this affect your reaction to the ckd case? Would you defend him, or at least state that you don't agree with the case on him?

Maybe this will clarify things for you. I could be wrong about Flay, but if it's being assumed that he and I are BOTH scum, I find myself disregarding the arguments since I know the foundation is flawed.

I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how this exonerates you. You seem to be avoiding the fact that I've made points against both of you individually, and it seems like each of you may still be hiding behind that.

Maybe this will clarify things for you: I'm not ASSUMING that both of you are scum. I'm GUESSING that you might be (an educated guess, mind you), based on your individual behavior and how you've interacted with each other (or more precisely, how you've NOT interacted with each other, in this case).

To say that I am basing much of my suspicion on the theory that the two of you are a scumpair is inaccurate. Both of you still look highly suspicious to me individually. I've posted enough of a case on Flay individually to suspect him and vote him, regardless of your alignment -- and you seem to acknowledge that. I am able to consider the cases on each of you individually, while also being able to consider the case that you two are a scumpair. I don't like the fact that you keep implying that my case against the two of you is based on assuming that both of you are guilty, when that's not true.

When I look at you two together as a possible scumpair, the individual cases against each of you look even stronger to me. At this point, people are not only discussing who to lynch today, but possible scumpair scenarios. I merely gave my theory and presented evidence that makes a Flay/you scumpair plausible.

It is possible for people to agree with the case made individually on Flay while still disagreeing with the case on you, or the two of you as a pair. For example, Sudo now seems to suspect Flay, but not you. You could easily have said that you could see Flay's suspicious behavior as a scumtell, but that you don't agree with the points on you (and thus indirectly, the two of you as a scumpair) and given reasons why. But you didn't do that. Instead of defending youself against my individual points against you, you asked me to reread assuming that you are town, and you seem to dismiss my points on you because because I've presented the theory that you are scum with Flay. Why does considering the two of you as a pair nullify my cases on either of you?

I don't like how you suspected AA simply for his theory that you held onto the reason for your Korlash vote. It may not be a likely theory, but to me it's at least plausible. It seems like a weak reason for to vote him when you would have had stronger reasons to vote someone else. In 965 you say that you don't think that was an argument that a townie would make, but then you went on to agree with Flay and say that such a move would be weird both for town and for scum. So why then did you assume AA was guilty because of it? Shouldn't it have been a null tell if you couldn't make sense of it? In my opinion, it wasn't an argument at all. I think AA is a townie and simply stated a theory he had. As he noted, he did not present it as the only possiblity (he gave another), he didn't vote you for it, and he never even argued it.

I don't like how when the wagon formed on you, the person you attacked for it was Adel, making it sound like he was the one responsible. Why did you single him out when Flay started the wagon on you and I jumped on with the L-2 vote?

Finally, what exactly have you done to help find scum today? Other than a half hearted attempt to question those who didn't vote for Korlash at the very beginning of the day (which I think was kind of bogus anyway, because I had already stated my opinions and Gunslinger/Oman was still AWOL), I've not seen you do much. You've defended Flay, and voted for AA, who I really don't find scummy at all. And that could be seen as an OMGUS vote for his theory of you anyway. If you really are innocent as you claim to be, then you should be scumhunting and putting your skills to work, since you have more or less proven your ability to notice subtle details when you gave your reason for voting Korlash. Since you are into roleplaying, put yourself into my shoes. Why should I assume you are innocent?

I'll tell you what though. I'm a man of my word, and I will attempt to consider all viewpoints as I've promised to do. As an exercise, I will go back and reread Day 3, assuming you are innocent and see what conclusion I come to. Since I'm not 100% certain you are guilty, it would be unwise to not consider your innocence, even if I don't believe that at this point.

I am not completely convinced that Flay is guilty, that you are guilty, or that you two are a pair. There *are* other possibilities, as I stated. There is a possibility that neither of you are scum, but I think it's a small one right now. At the moment, the two of you are by far the best suspects to me individually, and the two of you as a pair seems plausible to me. I think that of the two of you, there is a good chance that at least one of you is scum, and possibly both of you. So that's why I support a lynch on either of you right now.

[Mr. Flay]

Jitsu has been pretty hard after Anata/Set the whole game, I find it hard to believe that you considered him jumping on the wagon strange. And, despite your hostility toward him, you still seem to consider Adel as fairly town. If your move is not predicated by suspicions on one of both of them as scum, the rationale doesn't hold together, at all. Please be precise about your suspicions in the matter and the rationale behind your action.

Your first statement here is incorrect, which explains part of the miscommunication we're having. When I said I didn't like the Setael wagon, I was referring

solely

to the fact that Setael received 3 of the 5 needed votes in less than 48 hours. Compared with the absolutely glacial pace of the one known bandwagon we have on a scum so far (Korlash), I saw some merit to Adel's observation about wagon speed. It escaped me

at that moment

that I was ditching a wagon joined by two people I largely did not consider scummy.

However whatever happens today, I want a lot less fence-sitting. I would like to see everyone's thoughts out in the open about myself, Setael, jerubbaal, and Adel, before we lynch anybody.

[Mr. Flay]

To clarify the timing issue: Setael accumulated 3 votes between 1:13 pm and 2:41 pm on Nov. 26th, 2007, with AA stating 3 minutes later that he would be willing to vote for Setael, and ckd supporting a Setael lynch less than half an hour later. That's enough people to lynch, if everyone jumped on. Within two days of D3 opening.

It's no great stretch to say that there's probably at least one scum in that set...possibly two, in my view.

THAT

is what I've been trying to say, apparently incoherently, for days.

[Jitsu]

To clarify the timing issue: Setael accumulated 3 votes between 1:13 pm and 2:41 pm on Nov. 26th, 2007, with AA stating 3 minutes later that he would be willing to vote for Setael, and ckd supporting a Setael lynch less than half an hour later. That's enough people to lynch, if everyone jumped on. Within two days of D3 opening.

It's no great stretch to say that there's probably at least one scum in that set...possibly two, in my view.

THAT

is what I've been trying to say, apparently incoherently, for days.

So, who are the scum?

[curiouskarmadog]

I didnt jump on the Set wagon because of the speed it began....that being said, I probably would have voted Set before the string of votes.