Mini 539: Game over


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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:15 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

All right, I’ve been rereading the thread. And I hate to come back to this, but the response to Xtoxm answering the question as to why MafiaSSK called him “they” still nags at me.

In post 29 Holden says this:
Ho1den wrote:My point is that he tried to explain something that he had no reason to trying to explain. Ytill brought up a question about MafiaSSK's grammar which MafiaSSK should have been able to answer on his own. The was no reason for Xtoxm to jump in and say anything. Even if I am almost certain I know why someone did somehting I want THEM to explain it so I can see their line of thinking. If by some odd chance MafiaSSK had made a slip (not likely in this case) Xtoxm gave him an easy out.
At least now there's a minor reason for the vote because there are few good reasons to jump to someone's aid at this point in the game.
Ho1den, as the first and most vocal person to comment on Xtoxm answering for MafiaSSK about “they” (and there doesn’t seem to be much inconsistency here, as you shortly after moved your vote to Incognito for a more comprehensive version of what you had voted Xtoxm for) I would like to ask you the following question: What possible answer to the question Xtoxm answered could have given you valuable information about MafiaSSK? I’ve tried to imagine one and I just can’t do it.

Was your vote a policy vote on Xtoxm, purely designed to frighten him away from answering any more questions? If so was it wise to do so with such a forceful argument and 2 votes already on Xtoxm? I suppose I’m curious about this because I didn’t really see this as “jumping to someone’s aid” and I can think of a good reason for Xtoxm to have answered this question, if only to have swept away an irrelevancy. At this point I would have thought Xtoxm might have logically followed this with a ‘by the way, MafiaSSK, why do I seem suspicious’, but if you could I’d like a bit more explanation of your thought process through this phase, especially since in post 51 you point out that Xtoxm has now answered for MafiaSSK twice and in the same post you take your vote off him. One more question, here. What did you see as the possible suspicious motivations for Xtoxm answering for MafiaSSK, if any? If so, does your later vote on Incognito arise from the same or similar suspicion?
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:20 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

Apyadg:

Something about your explanations during the time you were defending yourself for taking your vote off MafiaSSK bothers me quite a bit. In post 92 you say this:
Apyadg wrote:I see little reason to keep a vote on someone unless I think they should be lynched at that time. He'd had several votes on him, so I don't think he'd have felt under much "pressure" just due to my vote, if several people had unvoted him.

And you expand on this in later posts, and give credit to Ythill’s argument in post 57 for convincing you. Which is fine, as you say in post 60:
Apyadg wrote:I am going to unvote him, but I want to make it very clear that I still think there's a possibility that he's scum, and it's going to take a lot to knock him down my list of suspicious people (especially as he's the only person on it above the base level), I unvote him purely upon agreeing with Ythill's point from his last post.

Except that in post 47, made roughly 12 hours before post 60, you already said:
Apyadg wrote:On the bright side, we've got the game going! I don't think it's a particularly good idea to lynch him based on this; he'd have to be the single worst scum player in the entire world - But his play, whether scum or town, has been awful, he's already admitted to lying to the town, and bandwagon jumping, for no reason at all, it doesn't bode well for him really.
And left your vote on him. Since your statement here clearly makes the point that you already didn’t think it was a particularly good idea to lynch MafiaSSK based on his play to that point, using Ythill’s post as justification for taking your vote off MafiaSSK looks very strange.

The only thing that changed between you saying that it would be a bad idea to lynch MafiaSSK based on what you interpreted as bad play at 3 in the morning on the 8th and you taking your vote off MafiaSSK by being convinced that it was a bad idea to lynch MafiaSSK based on bad play at 3 in the afternoon on the 8th was that there were no longer as many votes on MafiaSSK.

Now I may be misinterpreting what it was about Ythill’s post that convinced you, but you seem to have already expressed that opinion.

By post 70 you write:
Apyadg wrote:And I realised, as I stated, that there's a good reason tonot lynch him.Accepting a good argument != scummy
And by post 92 you’re actually quoting Ythill’s post as your reason and claiming:
Apyadg wrote:I see little reason to keep a vote on someone unless I think they should be lynched at that time.
But in your post 47, once again well before Ythill’s post, you had already said:
Apyadg wrote:I don't think it's a particularly good idea to lynch him based on this; he'd have to be the single worst scum player in the entire world –
And kept your vote on him. Please explain this seemingly very opportunistic contradiction.
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:40 am

Post by Ho1den »

JP - my original vote on Xtoxm was not meant to lead to a lynch. I did not think 3 votes on someone when it takes 7 to lynch was a very serious danger. And you're right, it's very unlikely we could have learned anything from SSK's response to the question. It was partially a policy vote because if he did not know any better at least I could curtail the behavior early when it really had little effect on the game. Besides, my original vote was random and was doing absolutely nothing sitting on NJH. And as I stated previously, there's not many good reasons to answer for somebody else this early in the game (most likely, only scum know others' alignment) and it could have been an early slip - standing up for a townie.

As for the post when I take the vote off Xtoxm, I do comment that he made the same act again, but I felt that Incog's defense of SSK was much more significant (which you agreed with as you were questioning him about it as well). The same arguement stands for this vote. Although this was less a policy vote and more of a vote based on suspicion because I thought the defense was so blatant.
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:34 pm

Post by Incognito »

Mod, any news on a Natude replacement? Any news on a ChronX replacement? Any news on a Northjayhawk replacement? A general prod would be nice too for all of the players except Justin Playfair, Ho1den, Ythill, and me. I know it's the holidays and all but this game should certainly be more active.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 11:41 am

Post by Ythill »

I am still checking in, still taking notes and forming opinions. I've got some new angles but I think I'll wait to post them until more of us are active.

I don't want this game to die :cry:
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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Wed Dec 19, 2007 3:23 pm

Post by Nanosauromo »

I'm still seeking replacements for the three who asked for it.
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 9:54 am

Post by Nanosauromo »

Shteven replaces Northjayhawk.
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:42 am

Post by Ythill »

Welcome Shteven. You are replacing into my hot seat though I will withhold my vote, giving you a chance to read the game. Once you have, I'd love to know your opinion of the confrontation between myself and your predecessor (96-103, 113, 120-122, 132-136), with the understanding that you cannot truly answer for his statements.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:31 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Ythill wrote:Welcome Shteven. You are replacing into my hot seat though I will withhold my vote, giving you a chance to read the game. Once you have, I'd love to know your opinion of the confrontation between myself and your predecessor (96-103, 113, 120-122, 132-136), with the understanding that you cannot truly answer for his statements.
He can't answer for them at all, no matter his role. That is an unreasonable request. You can base your vote off what northjay said, but you can't ask the new guy to answer for him
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:48 pm

Post by Ythill »

Xtoxm wrote:He can't answer for them at all, no matter his role. That is an unreasonable request. You can base your vote off what northjay said, but you can't ask the new guy to answer for him
He can give his opinion of the exchange. That's all I asked for.
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 1:07 pm

Post by Shteven »

Sounds fine. I'll do my best. For now, just checking in. I'll post again soon.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 1:14 pm

Post by MafiaSSK »

Sorry I've been a bit inactive, FireFox wasn't working too great with MafiaScum. But welcome Shteven. I would like to hear your opinions on other characters as well. Sorry if I can't do my review of everyone but I don't have the time. But I will keep my vote on whom used to be Natude I really hate inactiveness in Mafia games and still think that it is a sign of scaredness.
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:20 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

MafiaSSK wrote:Sorry I've been a bit inactive, FireFox wasn't working too great with MafiaScum. But welcome Shteven. I would like to hear your opinions on other characters as well. Sorry if I can't do my review of everyone but I don't have the time. But I will keep my vote on whom used to be Natude I really hate inactiveness in Mafia games and still think that it is a sign of scaredness.
No..I think he just signed up, forgot about it, and never came back. This is very common in online games.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Thu Dec 20, 2007 9:15 pm

Post by Shteven »

For now I'm just going to highlight some things on my read through that struck me as interesting. I've read only the first four pages actually; this thread is a lot denser (information wise) than I was expecting. still, only 3 pages to go, so I should be caught up soon.

I apologize there's no overall "flow" to this post; it's more or less responses in the order of the posts in the thread. I'll do pages 5, 6, 7 and then try to do some wrapping up with a list of likely scum at the end.
Ythill wrote: I’ll just ask: did anyone else understand how Mafia’s apparent lack of perception was relevant?
Holdem wrote:My point is that he tried to explain something that he had no reason to trying to explain. Ytill brought up a question about MafiaSSK's grammar which MafiaSSK should have been able to answer on his own. The was no reason for Xtoxm to jump in and say anything.
Some people just try to be helpful! I've answered questions on behalf of others if they were simple enough in the past. Although you can see the person's gender to the left, so MafiaSSK did miss that, but it's no big deal.
Ythill wrote: Didn't I make that clear in the rest of the post you quoted? Mafia missed two obvious details, but claims to have discerned your scumminess from a single benign post. It’s acceptable that he didn’t see the symbol and that he misread the vote count, but it doesn’t make sense for someone who commonly makes such mistakes to have supernatural scum-reading capabilities. I want to know why he really voted you.
I think this is a valid point.
MafiaSSK wrote:I voted for Xtoxm truly because 2 people had already voted him. so I wanted jump on the bandwagon. xD
Translation: Hello I am scum.
MafiaSSK wrote:Yes well I was lying.
Translation: Haha you didn't get it the first time I said it? I'm scum.

I do, however, agree that page 2 is considerably too early to end day 1. I wonder if that may be on purpose: he doesn't think he can get lynched on page 2, so he can set up himself as making mistakes? This is probably a stretch, but I'm wondering.
incognito wrote:Ythill points out that there were three random votes in a row for the same person (Xtoxm).
Voting for someone "Because they seem suspicious." is not a random vote, regardless of if MafiaSSK was lying about it or not. It is absolutely possible to make a serious vote on page 1.
MafiaSSK wrote:Unvote: xtoxm Vote:Justin Playfair

@Justin: If you looked closely enough,Justin you would have found that there is no depth to my answers.
Here he's voting for Justin because his (mafiaSSK's) posts have no depth. You can't vote for someone else over your own bad play, I'm sorry, that's just not allowed in my book. This is from post 50, and while I haven't quoted the entire thing, I really don't think there's much more to it; this is the context as I understand it.

General comment @ythill: If you're going to reference post numbers, be a pal and link them as I did above. Use the URL tag, and no quotes around the link. The no quotes part confused me for a long time.
Ythill wrote: I’ve seen this opinion all over these boards and disagree. A mislynch is always bad for town, but can be acceptable if it reveals information. Lynching for bad play, however, makes it way too easy for wagoneers to justify their votes later. IMO, at this stage, the best strategy for dealing with Mafia is to ignore him while we examine others. It’s not like we’ll be short on evidence if we want to string him up later.
I am never happy to mislynch anyone. I've mislynched townies after they claimed a power role, then re-claimed a non-power role and admitted to lying. It's still a dead townie. However, mislynches are designed into the game. There's a reason town outnumbers scum (roughly, depending on setup) 3:1. You just can't be right all the time. Some mislynches are worse than others. I would never be proud of it, but I think a MafiaSSK mislynch wouldn't be as bad as some others, mainly due to the shallowness of his answers.
Apyadg wrote: Unvote: MafiaSSK. My eye is still very firmly upon him.
Already caught by several people, but that's what you get when you're late to the game. This is bad. He's already lost a few votes (Charter's entirely random vote for example) and so you removing the vote really isn't nessacary. If I were you and trying to abandon a stalled wagon, I'd have at least tried to vote for someone else in the same post.

Regarding Jordan's analysis on Ythill, I agree with Ythill that Justin's playstyle is a bit backhanded. You are accusing the players you ask questions to, due to the phrasing and tone of your posts. It may not be intentional and it's certainly not explicit, but it is an attack nevertheless.

You have some good points, I just think you need to state them a bit more plainly and directly.
Discipline Slayer wrote:There was no way MafiaSSK's initial vote could have been a serious one. Come on, who finds someone suspicious at the beginning of the random voting stage? That was obviously a joke vote.
I hope you've got two votes buddy, because that was not at all a joke vote!
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:14 am

Post by Shteven »

Continuing from page 5:
Northjayhawk, who is now me wrote: Now to my question, since you and charter apparently didnt get it. I'm not criticising your use of "definitive town" instead of some other adjective to use to name someone a likely pro-town, I am seriously questioning why in the world you would go out of your way to argue that anyone is innocent at all this early in the game. I believe on day 1 and day 2, if someone makes a list or arguement for who is likeliest to be innocent this early that is anti-town (but not necessarily scummy, could could just be a townie making a bad play).
I'm going to disagree with my predecessor here. I do agree that it's not necessary to make lists of townies, and it doesn't really contribute much, but there's really nothing wrong with it either. If I was to make a list of three or so people I thought were scum....What would you assume the other 9 are? Yeah, they'd be the townies. Mafia can always check vote counts or even re-read in depth to see who's got suspicion; they don't need an explicit list to figure out who to kill. It's true that leaving it out makes your list more vague, but a lot more goes into selecting a kill than just what some townie thinks. Usually kills are picked by who's voice they want to silence, or what misinformation they want to spread. (Ie, townie A and B get into a heated argument. Night kill townie A, then use that to push for townie B's lynch). There's just so much more to go on than someone's I-like-bob list.

I can only think of one case in a past game where I explicitly called someone a definite townie. Mostly to protect them from suspicion (they weren't under serious fire but had one or two people doubting them) and to make myself feel better when they eventually died (a later night kill) and were revealed as a townie. Like I said, it's not that important, but it's certainly not detrimental. Eventually at the end of these summary posts I'll be making a list of people I think are scum. I'll just leave the rest off; these are people who I think are probably town.
Ho1den wrote:
Chronx wrote: I don't especially like that several players are coaching xtoxm to play better.
Chronx wrote: my gut feeling is that mafiaSSK is still possible scum, especially considering there now seems to be spirited defense on his behalf from a few places.
Chronx wrote:
I'm not going to unvote the player I find most scummy to this point to satisfy the wishes of someone else who could very well be sticking up for his scumbuddy.
These type of vague accusations don't help us at all, and I'm getting tired of them. If you want to accuse me of something just do it as opposed to dropping subtle hints from which I can't defend myself.[/quote]

I thought Chronx's statements here were pretty clear. The only thing he didn't include would be Ho1den's name, which he should have, but this information didn't seem to be lost on Ho1den. If Chronx meant to implicate anyone else, he should also state their names.
MafiaSSK wrote:Sorry if there's been homework. GOD! Anyways I can't really tell if anybody is scum or not yet. I mean they're not clearly acting out of the characteristics of a normal townie. They don't really jump the bandwagon.
Anyways due to inactiveness which could mean too scared too post I am going to have to unvote and Vote:Natude. This could have been one of their first gamers as mafia so they didn't know what to post without revealing without their identity. So overall this is the best analysis I've got.
[Spelling errors correct for readability]

So MafiaSSK lists the criteria by which to look for scum, and admits that no one really matches it. So he votes for someone who's not playing. Well, I know someone who matches the criteria you listed: yourself, MafiaSSK.

Really, this post just amazes me.
Incognito wrote: Um yeah. I don't even know where to go after that one. I somewhat completed my read from where I left off. I'd love to comment on the Ythill/Justin Playfair arguments but they seem a bit over my head.
A good reason why I don't like that style of post; sometimes it's necessary, but overall, posts should try to be kept concise. If stating a detailed case against someone takes that much space, so be it, but on day 1, it shouldn't. Catch up posts like these also grow pretty large, but that's because I'm responding to several pages of posts at once. A good way to shorten the wall of text syndrome is to shorten the amount of text you quote; try linking to the post instead.

Ythill wrote: North had a really bad habit of posting to suit his needs of the moment rather than the truth, especially in this game. Before anyone gives weight to his arguments, I’d suggest at least skimming the other games he was in. If it had not been for the rule about discussing games in progress, he would have been arguing from an even less credible foundation.
I haven't checked such games and probably won't bother to; however...If they're still ongoing, I'm assuming his alignment was not yet revealed? Unless he died early, you won't know if he was town or scum in those games any more than you know what he was here. He could just be making bad plays as town; he could have been scum in one game and town in another, but you claim he's made the same mistakes in all his games. So I really don't see how reading those games would be helpful. It's very unlikely he was mafia in every game, when there's 3 times as many town roles. If someone does something all the time it's simply their playstyle.

I'm going to seperate page 7 responses into another post.

P.S. Not too thrilled about not seeing any new posts since my last. This game listed needing 3 replacements when I signed up, because I figured I wanted to plug the most desperate hole I could help out with. But let's not expand the number of replacements needed past 3 now, that's already very high and it's no fun finding them.
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 2:01 am

Post by Xtoxm »

I read it but didn't have anything to say about it. I thought Ythill would have responded, he seems to be the active one here.
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you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 2:40 am

Post by Shteven »

Page 7 & general response to Ythill coming right up!
Incognito wrote:I know it's the holidays and all but this game should certainly be more active.
Agreed. Might be a bit slow the next week, but I'll certainly be here, so feel free to play grill-the-new-guy ;)

Regarding JP's post about Ho1dem's in post 150 (top of this page): I would really assume they're two townies arguing over policy here. I have already stated in my earlier summary that some players just try to be helpful and answer simple questions even if they aren't directed at them; I see no problem with what Xtoxm did. So ho1dem's attack on him for it seems unjustified; but due to it being so early in the game it's something I'd let slide. It could point to possible distancing between Ho1dem and MafiaSSK; but that's a bit of a stretch. To test that theory I'd only be willing to lynch MafiaSSK due to his other mistakes, and only if he turned out scum would I still support a Ho1dem lynch on day 2.

And the rest of page 7? Generally lots and lots of proof that Xtoxm really is the helpful player I expected him to be. I love when I'm right!

Check posts this and that to see him in action.

Ho1dem, do you have a problem with either of these posts?

----------------

Onwards to Ythill's questions of my predecessor.
Welcome Shteven. You are replacing into my hot seat though I will withhold my vote, giving you a chance to read the game. Once you have, I'd love to know your opinion of the confrontation between myself and your predecessor (96-103, 113, 120-122, 132-136), with the understanding that you cannot truly answer for his statements.
I've given my thoughts on some of your exchanges as part of my scanning the thread for interesting posts already, and here's some more. Regarding this line from post 97:
NJH wrote:Whether someone thinks that a question against someone else is a good one or not, I cant think of any value to the town at all (and a lot of potential harm) to answer for or feed them a good answer.
I think I've already gone on the record several times that being helpful isn't a scum tell. Other than that, the only other interesting part was he called you out for mentioning people who were cleared as town, this I answered above, there's no real harm in it.

One thing in your argument that I do have a serious problem with is this claim from post 98:
In fact, one of the things scummy about #39 was that it was “unbidden, off-topic.” Simply put, you interjected it into a conversation about something else entirely, as if to slip it in quietly.
1) It was still being discussed, and seems in place to me.
2) You can't help if other people bring up other points in between you checking the thread. All of my responses to old posts are now out of place; and even when not being a replacement, if a thread moves quickly and you haven't posted for a day or two, you're likely to be in the middle of something else. This is normal and means nothing.

In post 114:
There are also several town stratagems that are initiated by listing whom one suspects to be town, but I’m not going to explain them to you. Either figure them out yourself or wait to see if any are played out here.
Wow, you must have a lot of faith in your average mafia player. The only weapon that the town has is lynching; which requires a majority vote. If you plan on conducting a uber-secret powerful town strategy, the only way it will do anything is if you can explain it to everyone and get consensus on it. The town has few secrets; strategies for exposing scum are almost universally public. The exceptions are obvious; cops don't claim on day 1, etc. If you're going to reveal a guilty investigation, you have to first judge if it's worth your life. But your strategy doesn't seem to be "I'm claiming cop" it seems to be a guide for daytime scum hunting. Thus, it must involve the cooperation of everyone in this thread. It must be a public, clear policy. Otherwise, it's fictional; and that doesn't look good on you.

Posts 132-136:

He beings by misunderstanding your meta-attack as implying that he listed innocents in his other games, as opposed to him showing generally different play (town in other games, scum here). That said, he does have a valid point that simply saying "other good players list innocents" is not in fact a justification that the strategy is sound. Of course, I'm with you in that I don't think this behavior is harmful, so I don't really need a justification.

While he did misinterpret your meta-attack, I think he did so genuinely. You said he was more active in his supposedly town games, and so felt you were accusing him of being to busy/lurking in this game. He then said that he never claimed he was busy. Sounds like bickering over simple misunderstandings to me. This tends to escalate, and before long you've gone and lynched a town role. I always feel it's important to note agreements in responses so that hopefully discussions can be brought to a close. Not discussion as a whole, mind you, but specific threads of discussion.

And yes, he did overact. One more thing about the meta attack: for one, I hate meta attacks/defenses in general. Sometimes they're needed and I'm taking heat in another of my games for this exact reason - I mentioned I tend to defend myself throughly in all games while also saying I don't like meta defenses, and some people took issue with that. So I'm just going to raise another point here about the reliability of your attack. How many games of his did you read? I'm going to assume it's around 3-4; let's say it was 3. You're now basing your attack on the claim that you've interpreted his alignment correctly in three games. If you're wrong about one of them, the reason for him being scum here fails. It's harder to be right 3 times than it is to be right once. The more useful meta attacks come from reading -completed- games where alignments are certain. And for the record, I don't like those kinds of meta attacks either. I imagine I didn't word this carefully enough and it's now going to be used against me in a game other than this one. Metaness gives me a headache!

Important: In my above post, responding to pages 5-6, I misinterpreted Ythill's meta against Northjayhawk as him playing the same (poorly) in all games; on rereading the posts he asked me to, Ythill claims NJH is playing differently in this singular game. So, my response in this post is my current response and the previous response was in error. Sorry for any confusion. I also fubar'ed a quote block and used 'correct' instead of 'corrected'. Somebody slap me! :)


-------------

My list of top people we should lynch and why will be coming soon.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:21 pm

Post by Ythill »

Please forgive my silence these last couple of days. I’ve been very busy and have also been refraining from posting here out of respect for Shteven. Figured I’d let him finish his analysis before throwing too much new information into the thread. I still plan on analyzing this game from a new angle soon (as promised) but I want to reply to Shteven first and will probably wait on the other stuff for a day or two.
In 166, Shteven wrote:The only weapon that the town has is lynching; which requires a majority vote. If you plan on conducting a uber-secret powerful town strategy, the only way it will do anything is if you can explain it to everyone and get consensus on it.
I disagree whole heartedly. This is more theory discussion so I’ll try to be brief. Lynching is not the town’s only weapon. Don’t forget power roles. Furthermore, good lynching requires good information, which can be gained via traps, another town weapon. Town strategies include setting traps and protecting suspected power roles, both of which
require
secrecy. Tempting me into explaining myself
could
have ulterior motives.
In 166, Shteven also wrote:The town has few secrets; strategies for exposing scum are almost universally public. It must be a public, clear policy. Otherwise, it's fictional; and that doesn't look good on you.
Keeping my previous response in mind, your claim of fiction is unfounded. Also, recall my first post, in which I admit upfront to secrecy as a part of my playstyle. I’ve heard the secrecy-is-scummy argument before and, in many cases, disagree.
In 166, regarding meta on North, Shteven wrote:How many games of his did you read? I'm going to assume it's around 3-4; let's say it was 3. You're now basing your attack on the claim that you've interpreted his alignment correctly in three games.
It was 2 games other than this one, which was all of them. I also read his posts in the Mafia Discussion forum but they were irrelevant. However, nothing in my meta argument relied on knowing North’s alignment in any game (see below).
Regarding the same topic, Shteven wrote:
Important: In my above post, responding to pages 5-6, I misinterpreted Ythill's meta against Northjayhawk as him playing the same (poorly) in all games; on rereading the posts he asked me to, Ythill claims NJH is playing differently in this singular game.
You have misinterpreted again. Since I believe this may become important later, I want to clarify. My claim that North “is playing differently in this singular game” is correct but was a secondary assumption, a fact meant to correlate with North’s lack of scum-strategy knowledge to suggest that this game is his first as scum. This entire argument is admittedly weak and reaching and was intended more as a pressure statement (to goad North) than as a piece of evidence.

My primary meta argument was entirely different. Simply: North made a claim about his playstyle in general (not per his alignment) but a read of all his external posts proved convincingly that his playstyle claim was false. It is possible though unlikely that he could have been mistaken. It is also quite possible that he was lying, a suggestion which he grossly overreacted to.

In response to your analysis in general, I feel that you have managed to deepen my suspicions of the role you’ve stepped into, for the following reasons:

(1) SSK is clearly the VI (no offense SSK, labeling your playstyle not your intelligence level) which means he is the easy lynch. The VI is more of a pawn than a player. Aggressively attacking the VI at this juncture has the potential of several serious ulterior motives no matter what SSK’s alignment is. This
could
be bad townie play but you strike me as a good player. You have not only attacked SSK vehemently, but have stated your willingness (eagerness?) to make him today’s play. Yet we have some roles (DS & Natude mainly) that we know almost nothing about. Ding ding ding on the scumdar.

(2) You’ve suggested that if SSK is scum, Ho1den is his scumbuddy. This is based on unnamed possibilities that you even identify as “a bit of a stretch” and is directly tied to your preemptive set-up for a D2 lynch. Ho1den is the towniest mofo in our bunch, IMO. Nor do I see evidence of distancing between Ho1den and SSK (even weak evidence) anywhere. This suggestion is ludicrous in every respect except it’s possibility of adding credibility to an attack against SSK, a course upon which you seem clearly set.

(3) You have taken stances in and expanded upon a number of our theory discussions and have introduced some new ones. I don’t think this, in itself, is a reliable scumtell but it can have nefarious purposes and is generally distracting to the town. I would never hang someone on this point alone but have included it for completeness.

In summary
:
North was my PE#1. Shteven has already deepened my case against the role. I will therefore
vote: Shteven
. Again, I
do not
think we are ready to lynch anyone and I am not looking for a Shteven wagon. There are too many players on whom we have no reliable reads, and two players on whom we have almost no data at all.
Record:
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Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:50 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

Well my list of suspected mafia is: MafiaSSK and Ythill. I have already stated reasons for MafiaSSK. I will to to find the posts that i've got mafia vibe from Ythill.
Smooth as silk when he's scum, and very much capable of running things from behind the scenes while appearing to be doing minimal effort. - Almost50
Xtoxm is consistently great - Shosin
you were the only wolf i townread at endgame - the worst
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:08 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

Welcome, Shteven. Glad to see you. And if there’s a game you need a replacement in, I would be happy to return the favor.

Second. I am grateful you’ve replaced into the game and I certainly don’t intend to use anything you say here against you elsewhere.

About your first few posts. I agree with you about the silliness of Northjayhawk’s sustained attack on Ythill for suggesting that people were not likely to be scum. The only situation where I can see it having even the faintest, most limited utility would be in the case of someone who believed they were going to be lynched before nightfall and felt the need to get out some information. Even then, not much. It strikes me as an OMGUS counterattack. It could certainly be seen as a panicky first time scum reaction, although by the time he quit it seemed to me that maybe Northjayhawk was just uniquely unsuited to play this game in any capacity.

I have a somewhat different take on ChronX than you do. You mention his drive-by attacks on Ho1den above but not those on Incognito. In both cases they seemed to me designed to place the player on the defensive in a manner where they have very little solid to answer, and therefore make themselves seem more defensive. Ho1den didn’t rise to the bait, but Incognito did and ChronX pushed him in a way that made me think more of someone trying to work a player into being lynched than someone trying to find scum. I was hoping to see if ChronX would continue his attack on Incognito after Incognito answered my questions to him, but unfortunately ChronX had stopped any meaningful posting by then. In any case, I have a somewhat less benevolent view of ChronX than you do.

About MafiaSSK: Sure, he might be scum. But his behavior has been so bad as to be largely indecipherable. And a mislynch is a mislynch. The only time they seem permissible to me would be when they would point an absolutely damning finger of guilt at another player. And I sure don’t see that here. I mean, what have you got if you lynch MafiaSSK and he does turn up town? A little more suspicion of Apyadg for holding onto the wagon until he found a slippery way out? A little less of Xtoxm for answering those questions? A little more of ChronX or Ho1den for reacting most forcefully to the people who sort of defended him? If you can see more I’d be happy to know it. And I know you didn’t say we would gain information from a mislynch of MafiaSSK, but if you’re suggesting a mislynch wouldn’t be that bad in this case I think it has to involve more than the shallow nature of MafiaSSK’s play, and I’m not seeing what real information we get.

I am curious to see a more complete explanation on your read of ChronX and a little more on why you might be willing to accept a MafiaSSK mislynch.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:11 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

Ythill,

I want to start this by saying that you haven’t cost this game a player. I haven’t made it past my first day of any of the games I’m in and I’ve already been called retarded, silly, imprecise, defensive, a “last poster”, nitpicky, a liar in all four I think, a twister of words, and, perhaps most unkindly, not funny. Northjayhawk’s leaving had everything to do with him and nothing with you. Nothing. Quitting a Mafia game because someone called you a liar is precisely the same thing as quitting a football game because someone tried to knock you down.

It is partly because of the Northjayhawk incident that I am not making more of this:
Ythill wrote: @ Justin: I think it might be a good idea for you and I to reread our spat. I may have confirmed a scumtell on you but that doesn't mean you are mafia. Certain key pieces of damning evidence are missing from a complete case against you, such as signs of partnership between you and the others I suspect. Though I understand that it is not an argument, I assure you that I am town, and wonder if you, through honest contemplation, can find the holes in your own case.
Since the day you posted it I’ve been debating with myself whether it was fair to even comment on it, because I could see how I might make this kind of post in the immediate aftermath of Northjayhawk’s quitting, if I were you. But to break down what Xtoxm didn’t about your post, your reference to our exchange as a spat suggests a less than serious scumhunting intent on your part, your expressed reasons for considering me less suspicious are nonexistent (because needing to try to establish hard links between players as a day one condition is bizarrely overreaching…you’re just linking maybes together and inferring guilt by other unconfirmed suspicions) and the whole tone is so conciliatory. I won’t include with the former you assuring me you’re town, because although I know a lot of people take that as some kind of huge scumtell, I don’t. It’s always struck me as either lazy or opportunistic scumhunting when people jumped on it.

And your answer to Xtoxm in 147 makes me feel even more uneasy over pushing you on anything in that post. It includes two bits which to me seem far too suggestive of a particular mindset not to take into account:
Ythill wrote: I'd left that discussion with something like "haha you have confirmed a scumtell"
and…
Ythill wrote: a conflict-based relationship between us would be counterproductive left as is.
Which to me read quite plausibly as “Didn’t you just see that guy quit the game because he said I was so mean?”.

Even allowing the above, though, I can’t take you up on your offer. I still think you worked to mislead the town with your initial actions toward MafiaSSK. The results of your actions spun suspicions about others that in my mind were based on faulty premises and made legitimate inquiry more difficult. You have consistently cast suspicion more than built cases, been vague in both your questions and suspicions in a way that allows you to take advantage of whatever answer you get, and not committed to anything in a way that would keep you from saying you meant something else later. And that plays to the carpet of all-inclusive excuses you laid earlier, and they didn’t have to be preemptive for you to lay them as cover for whatever behavior you engage in.

And to this end I have to point to a couple of the things you posted to Northjayhawk:

First this, from post 98:
Ythill wrote: I never inferred that you not responding to #19 was suspect, nor that I thought your #39 was in response to it. In fact, one of the things scummy about #39 was that it was “unbidden, off-topic.” Simply put, you interjected it into a conversation about something else entirely, as if to slip it in quietly. I wouldn’t defend what Xtoxm did, but it was pretty harmless coming from a claimed n00b early in the game, especially since he was personally involved in the questions.

I don’t like your active lurking, your defense that relies on a misread of my accusations, or the fact that you’ve skipped three of four questions directed at you.
Well, the only problem with this is that what you’re saying isn’t really true.

Here are your questions, from post 83:
Ythill wrote: @ Northjay: You have made only two posts. Your #16 was the first of two “random” votes I called out suspicions on (in #19). Your #39 was an unbidden, off-topic justification of that “random” vote. In this post you don’t remove the random vote or defend it as such, but instead register a weak argument in favor of it by repeating what Ho1den had already said in #25 & 29. I’ll quote #39 below for reference. Why did you feel the need to justify your vote? Why have you not addressed the other topics in this game? Do you have other reasons to think Xtoxm is scummy? Is he still the scummiest in your opinion?
Here is Northjayhawk’s answer:
Northjayhawk wrote:Ythill: I didnt bother replying to your first mention of three random votes, because it appeared obvious to me that my random vote (#2) had no possibility of suspicion at all. I did not read it as a question towards me, more like a comment or unspoken question directed at the one who cast the third vote. I ALWAYS go to random.org in every game I play (research me if you want) to pick my first vote. Before I actually post the number, I do check to see if it would be a bad random vote (e.g. your random would be the third vote on someone in a 7-player game). In a 12-player game, a 2nd random vote might be mildly valuable to test for an overreaction, but hardly something that needs to be justified in itself.

My 2nd post was not in response to your post at all, I had basically ignored and forgotten about your comment by then. The explanation was necessary because I reaffirmed my random vote as no longer being random along with an explanation, and I would expect everyone to justify their votes and share their thinking whether asked for or not when there is the slightest whiff of suspicion on their target.

Someone who is only reactive to accusations over a few day/night cycles would start to look scummy to me, most town players would actively look for scum at least occasionally without needing to first be asked to explain their votes and suspicions.

As for the reason itself, it should be clear. Whether someone thinks that a question against someone else is a good one or not, I cant think of any value to the town at all (and a lot of potential harm) to answer for or feed them a good answer.
This would appear to me to answer three of your four questions. He reiterates his reason for voting Xtoxm (crummy reason to me, but he does it) and by doing so pretty clearly indicates that this is still his reason. Maybe I would have prodded him a bit by saying something like “So then there isn’t anything else?” but going from this into just accusing him of not answering looks like hunting a victim more than trying to determine if he’s scum. He is very direct in explaining why he felt the need to justify his vote, and the fact that he is still choosing to vote Xtoxm should be a pretty clear answer as to who he finds scummiest. The only question his post doesn’t offer his thinking about is why he hasn’t commented on anything else in thread.

I mean in my mind there was even a pretty big suspicious statement in his answer to test him on, this:
Northjayhawk wrote:Someone who is only reactive to accusations over a few day/night cycles would start to look scummy to me, most town players would actively look for scum at least occasionally without needing to first be asked to explain their votes and suspicions.
Which almost reads as Northjayhawk saying “can’t you see my post 39 was made so that I give the bare appearance of being involved”. But you don’t call him out on this, or ask directly for clarification of his answer about Xtoxm, or ask for clarification for the part of his defense “that relies on a misread of my accusations”, which given your mentioning of your post (19) in your own post could very easily have been an innocent misinterpretation. You instead announce as a given that Northjayhawk was evasive and unresponsive, as though by saying it you can make it true.

Then, when he does respond, you do this in your post 114:
Ythill wrote:Digging yourself deeper here. I’ve read both of your other games. I’ve seen you post more earlier and with much less to go on. Why the lie about your playstyle? Note that since your other games are ongoing, it is not appropriate for us to argue the specifics of them, which is why I’m being vague. Anyone who is curious can go read for themselves.

At this juncture, I don’t see you clearing yourself with an argument. We should probably move on to other topics. As I’ve said, I see no reason to convince others of your scumminess at this point. We still have lots of information to gather before anything like a lynch, and that means there’s still time for you to start playing like town.
So you accuse Northjayhawk of lying based on a meta that “it is not appropriate for us to argue the specifics of”. Nice. Kind of hard for him to defend himself on this, huh? No matter what the truth is. Because he’d probably have to use specifics for that. And you point out that no matter what he says he can’t clear himself. So you make this last, completely unfair attack, then try to make it the last word on the subject by saying nothing Northjayhawk says can matter and it’s time to move onto other topics.

Can you see why I have a hard time believing you’re town? So I’m sorry, I can’t take your offered hand of peace right now. Because this isn’t a spat to me. You have engaged, from almost the opening bell of the game, in what seems like very suspicious behavior to me. I have, and will continue to, look at other people. But you’re still the person I find most suspicious.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:27 pm

Post by Justin Playfair »

A minor thing, but I’ve been rereading the thread a lot.

On the 11th Disciple Slayer posts:
Disciple Slayer wrote:I'm here if anyone wants to ask me any questions.
He is asked a few questions but does not respond. On the 13th Incognito posts this:
Incognito wrote:@Disciple Slayer: You've been asked a number of questions from different sources now that you have yet to respond to. I'd like for you to become more active in the thread now so that your posts aren't as retrospective as they have been, otherwise I'm tempted to call you out on lurking. It seems like you've been avoiding scrutiny because you haven't been around to garner it.
And just over 30 minutes later Disciple Slayer responds:
Disciple Slayer wrote:Posting will commence on the 18th. I've got a busy weekend and a flight immediately after.
It is now the 23rd and Disciple Slayer has not posted. With the time of the year it could be nothing, and the quick response to Incognito when Incognito called him on not answering questions as he’d said he would could certainly have been a coincidence. But I thought the timing was interesting enough that it was worth pointing out.

I would also like Apyadg to answer my question about the seeming inconsistency in his behavior regarding taking his vote off MafiaSSK.

Sorry, but picking the bones here now. The town’s starting to feel pretty lonely.
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:46 pm

Post by Ythill »

@ Justin: Spat is the word I use in my notes to refer to any confrontation between players, don’t read too much into its use here. I never asked you for a pardon, just for you to reread our exchange. I hope that you did. I do appreciate you continuing to look at other players and do not fault you for keeping your vote on your PE#1.

Remember that accusations (or whatever
you
want to call them) serve two purposes: lynching players and drawing out defenses. I hope that you are at least considering my defenses and that you have noted how thoroughly I have responded to you.

Repeating Old Arguments
:
I’m not going to address old accusations here, except to point out that such repetition is an unfair attack. My original defenses still stand. If you would like to question one of them, do so, but don’t think it proves anything to endlessly repeat allegations I’ve already rebutted.

The Invisible Evidence that Justin May be Town
:
You have said that you prefer questions over accusations, why didn’t you just ask? I’m certainly not going to post a PBPA about why you might be town, but I’m willing to share a tell or two if asked. Honestly, your latest posts look even more townie to me. About D1 scumbuddy evidence: I do agree that it is unreliable but it
does
exist and a complete lack of it between two players, one of whom I am convinced is scum, makes me question middling scum reads on the other.

The Four Questions
:
Your quotes are fair and complete, but I don’t agree that North answered more than the one question: “Why did you feel the need to justify your vote?” It may be true that answers could be inferred from his post, but such assumptions are less reliable and telling than direct answers. I asked direct questions; demanding answers is neither misleading nor unfair. A lot of your argument here seems to hinge on the fact that I did not act in the way you would have; a difference in our approaches says absolutely zip about my alignment
especially
when nobody knows yours.

North’s Lie
:
Did you read North’s other games? From the POV of someone who didn’t, I absolutely agree with your reads on me here. However, the whole thing takes on a different hue from the POV of someone who did.

Me pointing out North’s lie was in no way unfair. I drew direct suspicion on his active lurking; his
only
defense was “Ythill, I read everything, but address only things I find relevant, interesting, and can add to or disagree with,” which references his playstyle. I checked up on him (as any good scumhunter would), found that his playstyle was very obviously not what he claimed, and I said so. The proof is all there for everyone to read if they care to. I would have been more specific, but I’m not going to break site rules. I’m also not going to let a lie stand as the only defense for scummy behavior, just because
the person who told the lie chose one that can only be disproved by evidence in ongoing games
.

Though it is true he could not defend with specifics, it is also true that I could not (and did not) argue specifics. We had the same handicap. My only advantage was that anyone could do the meta and would see his lie for what it was. This advantage resulted from him lying, not from me finding it.

Regarding the end of my post #114, look at the pattern of my spat with North: I accuse him of scummy lurking in my all-player analysis (84); he pops in the next day with a “misread” of my case and the first jabs of an OMGUS attack based on strategy differences (97, a little scummier); I clarify the accusation and turn my FoS into a vote (98); he responds by lying, contradicting himself, sucking up to me, and deepening the strategy argument (101, even scummier). Rather than clearing himself, North was hanging himself. I expected his next post to be even scummier and…
it was
(120). But even though I was convinced he was going to argue himself into a hole (and was right), I was keeping an open mind to my read changing based on his
play
, I mentioned this in the same paragraph. He
did
have outs.
Justin Playfair wrote:I mean in my mind there was even a pretty big suspicious statement in his answer to test him on, this:
Northjayhawk wrote:Someone who
is only reactive to accusations
over a few day/night cycles would start to look scummy to me, most town players
would actively look for scum at least occasionally
without needing to first be asked to explain their votes and suspicions.
Which almost reads as Northjayhawk saying “can’t you see my post 39 was made so that I give the bare appearance of being involved”. But you don’t call him out on this...
In #122, Ythill wrote:Either way, it is good that you are posting more, even if it
is only reactive to accusations
. I really wish you
would actively look for scum at least occasionally
.
(bold added for emphasis)
So I
did
call him on it, just not in the way you would have.
Record:
Town 10W/15L
Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Sun Dec 23, 2007 3:08 pm

Post by Ythill »

An interesting quadrangle for your consideration…

Xtoxm’s suspicion of me is not unexpected. Anyone who has been keeping track can see that he has exhibited tunnel vision, focusing his contrary posts on SSK and myself. I’m not saying this is scummy, my read on Xtoxm is still stuck @ MotR. However, his focus is obvious, especially to someone who has just read the thread in its entirety.

I have clearly been attacking North/Shteven. Shteven has clearly been attacking SSK and cheerleading Xtoxm while taking it pretty easy on me. This pattern is somewhat suspicious.

@ Xtoxm: If you are town, watch your back on this. Your intentions may be entirely innocent but I do not believe Shteven’s are. Either way, you could tarnish your reputation here if you’re not careful.
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Scum 4W/1L
Other 2W/2L
Newbie 1L


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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Sun Dec 23, 2007 11:55 pm

Post by Shteven »

Ythill wrote: (1) SSK is clearly the VI (no offense SSK, labeling your playstyle not your intelligence level) which means he is the easy lynch. The VI is more of a pawn than a player. Aggressively attacking the VI at this juncture has the potential of several serious ulterior motives no matter what SSK’s alignment is. This could be bad townie play but you strike me as a good player. You have not only attacked SSK vehemently, but have stated your willingness (eagerness?) to make him today’s play. Yet we have some roles (DS & Natude mainly) that we know almost nothing about. Ding ding ding on the scumdar.
You're leaping to conclusions. My previous posts have been pointing out notable things in the thread; NOT who I think we should lynch. I mentioned in my last post that I will get to this soon. I don't have the time to post all of that right now, but I will tell you this much: SSK isn't the play for today. Noting all the errors he's made is important, and a key part of what's happened today, but it doesn't make him scum. I'm with you on this one, actually.

I stand by the connection to holdem, but I since I don't feel SSK is scum, it's just two people who are interacting. Possible scum on holdem, but very low. He probably won't even make top 3 (and since there's 3 scum...you do the math).

With regards to the secret townie stuff, I thought I had mentioned powerroles before. Reading what I posted, I just said a few things along the lines of cops not revealing themselves too early, etc. To clarify: of course power roles are secrets. Yes, they should be protected. However, I thought that would go without saying. In fact, it probably shouldn't be said at all since you may have tipped off the mafia already.
Ythill wrote:My primary meta argument was entirely different. Simply: North made a claim about his play style in general (not per his alignment) but a read of all his external posts proved convincingly that his play style claim was false. It is possible though unlikely that he could have been mistaken. It is also quite possible that he was lying, a suggestion which he grossly overreacted to.
Was his claimed play style wrong in all games or only wrong in this one? If it's wrong in all, it could be just that he wanted to have that play style but couldn't pull it off.

In short: give me a day or two. My previous posts are basically notes on the thread; to myself, and for others to look over. I still have to analyze them and make my top 3. I don't even know them yet, although I have some thoughts which I'll sort out when I get down to it.
Justin Playfair wrote:Welcome, Shteven. Glad to see you. And if there’s a game you need a replacement in, I would be happy to return the favor.
I'm not modding any games, and the only other game I'm alive in, you're already there ;) But I'm sure there's plenty of games if you go to the replacement queue.

Without requoting most of your post, some short answers: I'll be coming up with suspects soon, and I'll certainly look over Chronx again. If I didn't comment on his attacks on Incognito, it's likely I missed them entirely, or just missed the importance of them. I'll give it a look.

Most of the response to your MafiaSSK is the same as above. The first few mistakes looked very scummy. As he continued to make more and more, they became less so. When I finally caught up, it wasn't as bad as it started out being. Regarding mislynches:
Shteven wrote:I am never happy to mislynch anyone. I've mislynched townies after they claimed a power role, then re-claimed a non-power role and admitted to lying. It's still a dead townie.
It's all up there in post 163. Yes, it's followed by a "however", but don't think I didn't mean the above quote. Mislynches are bad, it's never a good idea to plan one. I was just saying that no one's 100% successful, and I have a pretty bad record day 1.
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Ok, ok, I swear, I'll post those top 3 soon. For now, I am going to go get breakfast!
"I'm like the customer support line for life."

Carpe Diem. If you shake it hard enough, maybe money will fall out!

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