Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[Mastermind of Sin]

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (5) = 5

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Tarhalindur

I think we should no lynch today and circle "protect" to figure out who the quack doctors are. The mafia will have a few obstacles:

1) They can't kill anyone being protected by a real doctor.
2) If we only have 3 kills, all three of those people are confirmed protown, and it's possible that a mafia will be killed in the process
3) As a result of 2, the mafia will have to kill someone they are protecting to make it seem like there are 4 quack doctors. Then, we have the mafia split into two categories: 4 quack doctors (1 of which is mafia) and 8 sane doctors (2 of which are mafia). That's 1/4 and 2/8(1/4) chances of finding them, which of course is still the same as we already have, with a few exceptions. We can now guarantee the separations and hold the mafia to specific claims after day 1. Plus, with 3 of the 4 kills being randomly assigned, we've got a 3/11+3/10+3/9 chance of hitting at least 1 mafia during night 1, which is a 90% chance of eliminating scum on the first night. That's pretty good odds.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

[Mastermind of Sin]

Who targetted those three? Please claim it now.

You guys are such idiots. Why in hell's blazing inferno did you vote no lynch after poking a gigantic hole in my breaking strategy? Quack docs being unable to kill mafia completely makes that strategy useless, and you idiots ended the day anyways. WTF!?

FoS: people that voted No lynch after that was pointed out

[Mastermind of Sin]

How can you possibly accuse me of sitting back to let my plan get accepted? You guys proved that my plan was dead and then rushed it to night before I even had the chance to check the thread. I couldn't have possibly posted after proposing my plan, because it was night already.

[Mastermind of Sin]

shaft.ed, if I was scum and knew the flaws of my plan, I don't see how I could have expected it to succeed. There are intelligent people in this game, and they DID spot the flaws. The fact is, people kept voting for the plan even after the flaws had been pointed out. That doesn't make a lot of sense, and I think scum would do that, to try and get to night quickly.

Oman, why did you agree to the plan if you knew there were flaws in it?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Because MoS, no plan is perfect and you're more experienced then me, thus I figured that you would've probably factored a no-kill into the equation.

As we've seen its not really "breaking" anyway, as it leaves numbers. All a no-kill does is fuxxes up the numbers.

But you also saw it get pointed out that mafia couldn't be killed by quacks, which was an obvious flaw. Yet you supported it?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I realize that. I just think it's plausible that MoS didn't see the easily-missed "will kill non-mafia" in the role description when he formulated the circle-protect strategy and that it's plausible that he didn't poke his head in on the thread again before it when to night. As I said before, I missed that at first myself.

I'm not saying it isn't plausible that he missed it. I'm saying it's rather convenient that something advertised as a breaking strategy for town actually works out as an assured mafia win when one detail is overlooked. I think you may lend a lot of credence to over-looking this detail because you missed it yourself. MoS had been advertising his knowledge of a breaking strategy during sign-ups. He had a lot of time to double check his work.

You underestimate my supreme laziness. I've played Quack mafia in RL when Mith has modded it in the past, and I thought we'd had some pretty good strategies for winning it. I didn't think about it until the game started, though, and I wrote my strategy on the spot and posted it right away. That strategy just came off the top of my head, sorry.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What they means is that one of the claimed quacks can be mafia, but only 1. That's why "quacks" was in quotes.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I wasn't telling you, obviously. I was telling the people who thought we said the mafia were also quacks.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think the quacks should circle-protect each other. That way, the one that doesn't die is mafia, and we can lynch them. At the same time, we have the rest of our doctors circle protect so that the mafia can't kill any of them without revealing that they aren't a doctor. The mafia have several options, but none of them are very good. At worst, they can give us a 50% chance of finding scum tomorrow.

Now, I haven't worked all the numbers out, but we may still want to lynch today anyways. I'm not sure if that puts us in the danger zone tomorrow, though.

I would suggest not pointing out what the mafia can do to come out of this strategy better, unless it completely nullifies the plan. I can think of two or three strategies the mafia can use, but none of them kill the plan entirely. Think it through before you post a reply.

Mod: Do quacks show up as quacks upon death, or just town?

town - Crub

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS that's a horribly idea.

If all of our Quacks are Quacks and they circle protect the game is over at 3:3 going into tommorow (this is ignoring a lynch today).

Even if one of the Quacks is scum and your plan "works" the Doc circle protect is entirely broken because the mafia can easily kill one of the Docs. This means BCS for your plan = 3 NK's if this follows a No Lynch it's game over, if it follows a mislynch it's game over, and if it follows a scum lynch it will be 3:2 LyLo where we know one scum for sure based on surviving Quacks, so in effect it will equal 3:1 going into N3 and thus I think a town win. Doesn't look like good odds to me.

Agreed. That's why I asked someone to look over the plan. Better to have suggested it and be shown wrong than not suggest it at all.

Vote MoS

We've just discussed that any 2 town deaths tonight is game over.

I'm going to pretend that you didn't read my post and therefore didn't see the part where I said I wasn't sure if we'd be endgaming ourselves by following the plan, because I hadn't had time to work out the numbers. Then I'm going to wait for you to actually read my post and unvote. Then I'm going to pretend you never did something that stupid.

Yeah discussion would be helpful. Have to say I'm not liking MoS's "plans" thus far. The second one was just blatantly not going to work. Not sure if scum would realistically try to get that to pass, but maybe he's just trying to demonstrate how bad his plans are in general.

I guess I'm still happy with my vote. But I must say I find it curious gets two quick votes for his question and MoS gets one a totally separate player for his much more damaging suggestion.

I typed it up on the fly, I admitted when I posted it that I had no idea whether it would work or not, but at least I made a suggestion. Apparently, unlike everyone else, I think plans should actually be discussed before they are put into action.

OK everyone a little posting action would be appreciated.

Also I think it'd be best if Kuribo doesn't target anyone tonight as there's a decent chance he's a Quack and one of the other three "Quack's" is thus mafia. Since the extra NK could end the game it seems like the safe thing to do. Any thoughts on this?

No, this is a horrible conclusion. Kuribo isn't much more likely to be a quack than anyone else. It's nearly as likely that the third quack targeted mafia, or that a dead person was a quack. We have no evidence on them, either, why are you not accounting for them? We should not reduce the number of protects that we have available to use. Since everyone is going to be protecting people they believe are protown, there should be an overlap in protects that will give us a good chance of keeping Kuribo (or anyone else) from killing on accident.

We still run the danger that the last Quack targetted Mafia last night and thus thinks they're a doc.

Yeah I'm not sure what to do about that one. We could play the night as vanilla, but that'd make it very easy for the mafia. Getting a Doc protect on the upcoming NK could be very helpful.

Maybe we could go with this: If we mislynch play as vanilla, if we lynch scum people that think they are Docs put in a protection.

This would mean:
If we mislynch we open the day tommorow at 4:3 LyLo, a Doc protect would get us 5:3 still LyLo or a Quack hit would get us end gamed at 3:3.

But if we lynch mafia we open the day tommorow at 5:2 with a NK, a Doc protect would put us at 6:2 an effective extra lynch, but a quack hit and a NK would be 4:2 LyLo. The small risk seems worth the possible reward here.

Hmm, putting it this way seems better. Despite guaranteeing that the scum can kill someone for free, we give ourselves another day. I think the chances that the third quack will get a kill off tonight is minimal, but is it worth the risk?

Oman, I think you should amend that statement.

Everyone who is not a quack, protect who you think the mafia will kill tonight

By telling them to protect who they think is protown, you allow the mafia to kill someone who looks scummy and get a guaranteed kill. By having everyone protect who they think will kill, that should spread out the protection so that mafia don't know who to kill, and they'll get caught in a WIFOM trap.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What last plan? The plan that was proven wrong and abandoned?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Notice: I will be leaving Mafiascum in the near future. As a result, I will be cutting back on games where possible. I'm going to try not to be replaced if I can, but this is an advance notice that my activity WILL decrease.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Could someone reiterate the case against Tarhalindur? I'm sorry, but I haven't paid attention lately. RL is rather hectic these days.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MoS should die, he pushed two plans, the second which would've handed scum the game.

That's total bullshit Oman, and you know it. I didn't "push" anything. I suggested a plan Day 1 with the intention of DISCUSSING it, and other people pushed it through to action before I even had a chance to reply to the thread again. I presented my second plan with the statement that I was aware there could be flaws, but I wanted to put it out there as a

possibility

. I stated that I hadn't run ANY numbers to see if it was viable, and I've already said that I don't want to act on plans until they've been discussed. So in no way did I

push

for my plans to be enacted. To suggest otherwise is utter misrepresentation of my actions.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I still feel that people are pushing for an opportunistic lynch on MoS.

While I agree with the above statement, I also feel that MoS's "plans" could quite well be the act of scum. Wish he had more posting to base his alignment on as the "plans" seem to be the only major tell he has given off.

QFT. It

was

scummy, but so far, that is the only tell I can derive at this moment.

Possibly costing us the game singlehandedly is an admittedly large tell, though.

It's hard for one person to cost us the game. For me to, as you said, "cost us the game singlehandedly", it would require a large number of people to support my plan and put it into action and for no one to voice any opposition to it or point out any flaws. I fail to see how the responsibility for that failure would be on my shoulders. It's a gross misrepresentation of the situation to say that I would be the only one responsible, especially when I admitted that I hadn't checked for flaws

when I posted the plan

...

[Mastermind of Sin]

I fail to see how the responsibility for that failure would be on my shoulders.

Because you came up with the idea, If you hadn't then there would be a nearly impossible chance for it to ever happen. But enough with semantics.

Sorry, I worded that wrong. I'm not trying to divest responsibility completely. That should have said "would be

solely

on my shoulders". Just because I suggested the idea doesn't guarantee it's going to happen, so it's not automatically all my fault just because I came up with it.

It's a gross misrepresentation of the situation to say that I would be the only one responsible, especially when I admitted that I hadn't checked for flaws

when I posted the plan

...

The fact that you didn't check for flaws indicates to me that either A) you're not very good at figuring out a decent plan, or B) you deliberately tried to mislead the town.

How could I be trying to mislead the town by informing them that I hadn't checked for flaws yet? If I wanted to mislead the town, I was act like the plan was foolproof and should be enacted immediately.

That

would be misleading the town. Proposing a possibility and asking people to check it for flaws is NOT misleading the town.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: MoS

.

More later, short on time (note that the tells I'm seeing from MoS are universal but even more noteworthy than usual coming from him).

You know me better than that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Tarhalindur, there is evidence that I was going to attempt to break the game before I even knew my role, so I find it hard to believe that you think this is some sinister plan on my part. I came into the game with a mission of devising a strategy that could win the game for the town, but the eagerness of the town to follow my lead made this a little harder now. Even so, we all knew coming into the game that I'd try to come up with a winning strategy, so it's dumb to say that I'm scum for doing it.

As for my suspicions, they're developing slowly. I want to watch a few more reactions to see how things end up, because I really don't have much right now. I have been a little *too* wrapped up in theories to pay attention to lynching people so far, but I want to change that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Tarhalindur

Self-preservation is king, lol! Never thought I'd say that. Actually, I don't really think I would regret getting lynched. I haven't had the time or energy to scumhunt in this game anyways, and this would get another game off my list before I quit Mafiascum.

Which, incidentally, is exactly why I haven't been scumhunting in this game. I haven't been doing much of anything, because I'm leaving the site, and I spend less time on MS anymore. Last week I tried to get caught up, but that was about it. It's easy to read and respond to attacks on me, because the logic is clear cut and easy to reason out. It takes more time to read through and try to decipher scum. I'm a good scumhunter because I spend the time to actually do that. I'm not doing that anymore.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd think it would be obvious that I am protown, but obviously we have some blind people being snowed by the likes of shaft.ed and Oman. Look at how shaft.ed continually voiced his support for suspicion on me and for lynching me, but he made sure his vote was elsewhere when I was lynched. I'd look long and hard at him tomorrow. Oman should know better than to be voting me for my actions today, and he studiously avoided making any case towards me or responding to my defense. Look at his posts, they are almost all 1-liners, he is trying to skate by without being noticed.

Tarhalindur is probably just a mistaken townie, but that was a pretty bad mistake he made.

kuribo is also a likely scum, he specifically ignored the fact that I pointed out I hadn't checked for flaws and then accused me of trying to mislead the town by not checking for flaws. He based his vote on an accusation of trying to mislead the town, yet ignored the fact that I appraised the town of exactly how much effort I had put into the plan BEFORE they would have a chance to act on it. There is no way I could mislead the town when I told them the plan hadn't been foolproofed yet.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also note that our three Quacks are all on my wagon (Oman, Tarhalindur, and Phate). I think that Oman is the scum of those three, because he'd be the most likely scumbag to be willing to act as Quack. He's experienced, so he'd probably volunteer to take up the role of faking Quackdom. Beware of Oman when he claims to have "protected" someone that somebody else protected, therefore not killing anyone. That's not a big tell, though. Really you need to beware of him trying to paint someone as scum based on his result. Do NOT let him, or any of the other Quacks, do this.

Please lynch scum tomorrow, don't get snowed again.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd think it would be obvious that I am protown, but obviously we have some blind people being snowed by the likes of shaft.ed and Oman. Look at how shaft.ed continually voiced his support for suspicion on me and for lynching me, but he made sure his vote was elsewhere when I was lynched. I'd look long and hard at him tomorrow.

*cough*

[Mastermind of Sin]

You were wrong on me, MoS.

You were wrong on me, Oman.