Open 57 - Quack Mafia (Game Over) before 545

[Mastermind of Sin]

I realize that. I just think it's plausible that MoS didn't see the easily-missed "will kill non-mafia" in the role description when he formulated the circle-protect strategy and that it's plausible that he didn't poke his head in on the thread again before it when to night. As I said before, I missed that at first myself.

I'm not saying it isn't plausible that he missed it. I'm saying it's rather convenient that something advertised as a breaking strategy for town actually works out as an assured mafia win when one detail is overlooked. I think you may lend a lot of credence to over-looking this detail because you missed it yourself. MoS had been advertising his knowledge of a breaking strategy during sign-ups. He had a lot of time to double check his work.

You underestimate my supreme laziness. I've played Quack mafia in RL when Mith has modded it in the past, and I thought we'd had some pretty good strategies for winning it. I didn't think about it until the game started, though, and I wrote my strategy on the spot and posted it right away. That strategy just came off the top of my head, sorry.

[Lulubelle]

I agree that the wording was poor, but what Lulu was pointing out is that at most 1 of the 3 "Quacks" can be mafia.

Right on both counts. Oy.

No one tried to block it, or resisted piling on unless they were actively avoiding the thread.

Also seeing as how fictiondepartment disappeared over the night phase.

You just got me wondering about that. The day phase was over so quickly that it's entirely possible that scum never had a chance to react in any concerted fashion. Especially noteworthy that fictiondepartment disappeared right after a single random vote and LutenitPowwel didn't post until the hammer had dropped, both of which are within the non-killing players. I just can't help but think that almost none of the information we obtained D1 is reliable at all.

In the case of L. Powwel, this post may have escaped notice, so permit me to draw attention to it.

[kuribo]

Hi, guys. Post analysis coming up.

[kuribo]

Although, you guys have me confused.

The mod's original posting of the roles (Post 2) doesn't seem to give any wiggle-room for cross-alignment. Twelve players, 3 Mafia, 9 docs. How can you figure someone is both a Quack and a Mafioso?

Now, granted, one of the claimed Quacks could be a Mafia covering up for their NK, but still. Can't be both.

[LutenitPowwel]

Happy 2008. Definite

FoS: MoS

.

Wait.... how can a quack be mafia. Do they, like, get two night choices?

[TylerJ]

Yeah that would be weird. So it seems to me that the best bet would be voting from the quack pool. But when it comes to scumhunting, it would have to be either lullubelle or MoS. That says aboslutely nothing new and gives us little to none zeroing down...

[Oman]

Quack = town.

Mafia = Mafia

Mafia != town.

Thus Quack != Mafia.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What they means is that one of the claimed quacks can be mafia, but only 1. That's why "quacks" was in quotes.

[TylerJ]

I got that already.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I wasn't telling you, obviously. I was telling the people who thought we said the mafia were also quacks.

[TylerJ]

ahh, sorry.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah that would be weird. So it seems to me that the best bet would be voting from the quack pool. But when it comes to scumhunting, it would have to be either lullubelle or MoS. That says aboslutely nothing new and gives us little to none zeroing down...

Tyler, check out my maths post earlier. I think that it is actually better to lynch from the non "Quack" pool since taking into account the possibility of a mafia NK, it is more likely that we will hit scum from the "Doc" pool.

Kuribo, when I say Quack/Mafia or Doc/Mafia that just means they are likely one of the two roles mentioned. We know the people that killed must be either Quacks or mafia and we know that the people that didn't kill are more likely Docs or mafia though there is a chance one of the non-killers is a Quack of one of the killers comes up mafia.

And man, now I know why Day 1's, while painful, are so helpful. There's so little to go on today.

[TylerJ]

Man, everything I say is disproven. Arghh. Okay, who to vote for...

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: NK about should be no kill

[Crub]

Vote Count:

(No changes again)

Mastermind of Sin (2):

shaft.ed, Lulubelle

Not Voting : Oman, Mastermind of Sin, TylerJ, Phate, Tarhalindur, fictiondepartment, LutenitPowwel

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Phate]

So, for the record, what's the town's opinion on we quacks trying to protect people they think are scum in the hopes of finding scum?

[Tarhalindur]

So, for the record, what's the town's opinion on we quacks trying to protect people they think are scum in the hopes of finding scum?

Unvote, Vote: Phate

[kuribo]

So, for the record, what's the town's opinion on we quacks trying to protect people they think are scum in the hopes of finding scum?

I imagine the opinion would be the same as any other plan that would involve possibly murdering helpless townies.

Unvote, vote: Phate

[Phate]

Quack, in this situation, reads; "You are a Cop. Each night, you may investigate one person. If they are town, they die." A power with a drawback, but still a power. I don't see how asking whether it's ever worth it to use is scummy.

[shaft.ed]

Phate under other circumstances I don't think I'd mind as much, but if we mislynch today mafia get a NK and a Quack kill also occurs it's game over. Not to mention that if a Doc protects the same person as the Quack but is NK'd then the information is false. I think it just creates manipulatable information at the risk of killing of townies when we're already in a dangerous situation.

[shaft.ed]

OK I've been thinking about my assumption that it's less likely there are Mafia in the Quack pool and I think I may have been a bit off. The reason being is that it not very likely that if all three Quacks target the person above, they will all score a kill thus avoiding mafia (as would have to be the case here). Odds of all three Quacks not being directly below any of the mafia should be about 30% (someone check this just in case). So it's more likely that one of the kills came from scum.

Also, the incentive for scum to kill is pretty high. If they did turn out lucky and get three Quack kills, adding one of their own would open us at 5:3 basically LyLo at the start of D2 following a 2 page D1. I don't think their chances to win could get much better. But opening up at 6:3 is entirely different. Thus I don't see the scum passing up the NK even though it was a breaking strategy for the circle protect. This is because the circle protect itself was a broken strategy, they didn't need to break a broken breaking strategy.

So after all of this I simply conclude that I was wrong before, I think it's just as likely there could be scum in the Quack pool, if not more so.

Also I didn't state this above, but I didn't think Phate's post was considerably scummy and I think the votes could be seen as opprotunistic.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think the quacks should circle-protect each other. That way, the one that doesn't die is mafia, and we can lynch them. At the same time, we have the rest of our doctors circle protect so that the mafia can't kill any of them without revealing that they aren't a doctor. The mafia have several options, but none of them are very good. At worst, they can give us a 50% chance of finding scum tomorrow.

Now, I haven't worked all the numbers out, but we may still want to lynch today anyways. I'm not sure if that puts us in the danger zone tomorrow, though.

I would suggest not pointing out what the mafia can do to come out of this strategy better, unless it completely nullifies the plan. I can think of two or three strategies the mafia can use, but none of them kill the plan entirely. Think it through before you post a reply.

Mod: Do quacks show up as quacks upon death, or just town?

town - Crub

[shaft.ed]

MoS that's a horribly idea.

If all of our Quacks are Quacks and they circle protect the game is over at 3:3 going into tommorow (this is ignoring a lynch today).

Even if one of the Quacks is scum and your plan "works" the Doc circle protect is entirely broken because the mafia can easily kill one of the Docs. This means BCS for your plan = 3 NK's if this follows a No Lynch it's game over, if it follows a mislynch it's game over, and if it follows a scum lynch it will be 3:2 LyLo where we know one scum for sure based on surviving Quacks, so in effect it will equal 3:1 going into N3 and thus I think a town win. Doesn't look like good odds to me.

[Oman]

Vote MoS

We've just discussed that any 2 town deaths tonight is game over.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah discussion would be helpful. Have to say I'm not liking MoS's "plans" thus far. The second one was just blatantly not going to work. Not sure if scum would realistically try to get that to pass, but maybe he's just trying to demonstrate how bad his plans are in general.

I guess I'm still happy with my vote. But I must say I find it curious gets two quick votes for his question and MoS gets one a totally separate player for his much more damaging suggestion.