STEVEN UNIVERSE 2: DEAD THREAD

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Post Post #1150 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:31 pm

Post by Varsoon »

Spoiler: Mastin really is struggling with this LYLO
Well fuck.
As if I needed more reason to consider Reasonably Rational scum, their power (which Titus stole) is hands-down a scum power. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean it's a power scum had! Not stupid/naive enough to blindly assume that, least of all in a Varsoon game.

Towns are gonna have powers that scum normally have; scum are gonna have powers that town normally have.

Yet. This is exactly the power I'd expect scum to have, especially since it fits the flavor of Army. Like...it really, really fits the flavor of Army. Like, RR if scum would be ranting at just how much their abilities match the flavor of Army. Especially since I still don't understand how that flavor would fit Sadie.

I mean. If Reasonably Rational is scum. You can go celebrate that I have more reason to think them scum, sure. Otherwise, you have every right to be despairing right now because it took every ounce of my willpower upon seeing that claim to not just flat-out vote them immediately. That blocking power, especially when thinking about the powers we've already seen from both alignments, just screams scum.

I've thought that the scum should have some form of blocking power the whole game.
I know that Eyeball (Skybird) had one, via the Pearl account. Yet for all of their bravado, Reasonably Rational is right about one thing:
The scum this game have a ridiculous vulnerability and inability to counter powers. The vast majority of scum's powers this game have involved either kill enhancement (to counter the myriad of protections), or confirmation actions meant to confirm the slot as town. There was DGB's ascetic, and Skybird's eventual-theoretical-nonconsecutive-roleblock, but otherwise, all of their powers have been focused on kill enhancement.

Where's their power to shut down town synchronization? Kill enhancement isn't enough. And by the time that Skybird would have access to Pearl, a nonconsecutive roleblock would be too little, too late. DGB's cutoff from the scumteam with an ascetic making her hard to catch would be an asset they couldn't harvest easily. The scum, simply put, actually do have a shortage of power.

It's not much of a deficit. It's not so strong of a deficit that I think there'd be two scum left. But the scum should have some way of immediately shutting town power down...and Reasonably Rational's permablock claim would offer them exactly that.

There's also something I noted about their claim.
And it's an important detail they're not addressing.

Farside's roleblock.

Farside's roleblock, in particular, specified it couldn't block factional actions. Reasonably Rational, the mechanics-based player, the person who is normally so thorough about these things, didn't include this vital piece of information. So am I to assume they could shut down a scum permanently from acting...or that they neglected to provide a very key detail in their claim?

It feels egregious. Like an elephant in the room, even. Why didn't they address the farside roleblock if they were town and knew the mechanic of their own roleblock? Yes, they no longer had the ability anymore--but they started with it, and thus would know how to ask questions about it. Am I to understand they deliberately did nothing to PM Varsoon about their own role, and to try and trap farside in a lie? Am I to understand that they didn't PM Varsoon to maybe see if farside was, instead, telling the truth about how hers worked?

Because that was the implication I got from their claim, and it's incredibly troubling. INCREDIBLY. Like, really, really disturbing. When I said it took every ounce of my willpower to not vote them on the spot, I meant it. But I think I owe them some level of space--I need to see Drixx's side of the story, his description, to confirm this. I also need to check out their posting across the whole game in regards to farside once she claimed the block.

I owe them that much. You might moan about that if RR IS scum. Or be thankful I'm not entirely a lost cause if they're town. (Just mostly.) But I do need to do this "the slow way", because I absolutely need to weigh all the angles, here.

If I make the right choice, it will only be because I put all this work in.

If I make the wrong choice, it will be a wrong choice I made after devoting so much time and effort into figuring it out. It would still be my fault, of course. And in some ways, worse than impulsively voting wrong: instead of being wrong without a thought, I put thought in and still came to the wrong conclusion, making me a rather shitty player. But it'd be easier to live with.

Making a wrong decision on impulse is something there's no excuse, no justification for. It's bad play all-around. Making a wrong decision after carefully weighing the options allows growth as a player, because it allows me to see where I went wrong.

And boy do I know that I've gone wrong.
It doesn't matter who the scum is at this point--I can say I've gone wrong because we've got this situation in the first place. Technically speaking, FOUR names to slave over in determining who they are scum. Literally the whole game aside from me, as a possible scumspect. With today being lylo, with today deciding the outcome of the game no matter what.

You can't deny that's a fuckup. Maybe some of it, I can't take blame for. (Was the no-lynch my fault? Maybe partially, but I don't think you can rightfully blame that on me entirely; everyone dropped the ball, there.) But a lot of it, it was most definitively my fault, and it's not a matter of whether it was my fault or not, but rather, HOW MUCH of it was my fault.

And in that regard: an informed decision, even if wrong, is better than an impulsive decision that's wrong. Because by going through this process, by going through this final check, I'm effectively going through a final summation of all of what I've done the whole game. Which makes it easier to process, which makes it easier to see, what I messed up on.

Again, I apologize it's taking this long--doubly so if RR's actually town and thinking they're scum even more is dragging out a failure-of-a-game-we-were-meant-to-win. While it's technically safer, while it's technically more thorough, I think that if I'm fully honest with myself, dragging it out and doing the analysis is more for me than for anyone else.

I need to be okay with losing. You in the dead thread, you've had time to settle down and take a stance: by this point, I'd be surprised if you hadn't taken a stance. That you're okay with losing. Or maybe that you're not okay with losing. But given that I cast the game-winning decision, or the game-losing decision, I'm not yet at the point where I am okay with losing. Else I'd have voted already.

And I guess that's what I'm working towards. Being okay with losing. Being okay with having made the wrong call. I'm not okay with it yet. If Reasonably Rational is town, this was a game-long tunnel that was beyond costly and I have nobody to blame but myself. That's true regardless of whether I lynch them or not, sure, but it'd be much, much stronger if I just voted them now.

Basically, I'm deeply, deeply afraid right now. Terrified of making the wrong choice, and the consequences thereof. How would you feel if five months of ~20 other players' efforts went down the drain all thanks to you making a bad vote? If 500 pages worth of work was wasted in a split second off of impulsive behavior on your part?

Probably pretty shitty!
And I honestly don't know what to do right now. Everything is telling me it's right to vote Reasonably Rational. Everything is telling me it's okay. That I don't need to worry. That even if it was wrong, you wouldn't rant at me. But while I know that rationally, I still don't know how to feel.

I can't vote until I do.
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Post Post #1151 (ISO) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:23 am

Post by Titus »

Well Mastina is seeing I suspected RR. That's a plus. Given my reluctance to lynch RR, that might be problematic.

Hard data analysis with the right players is an albatross.
Show
The scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx

You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy

VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.

All hail the Scum Empress!
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Post Post #1152 (ISO) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:33 am

Post by Varsoon »

Spoiler: Mastin2 on Lylo process
One thing I'm doing at the moment is trying to remember exactly how to play in lylo.
I never live to see lylo. Least of all as a player who was conftown on day fucking one.
And yeah that's usually a sign that the conftown has been horribly, horribly wrong--

Some players in the dead thread may disagree with this. But I know for a fact that a fair number of players as scum are absolutely terrified of a town-me. Drixx and Cerberus are certainly among them. Your Mileage May Vary on whether that fear is justified or not...but the fact that said fear exists is...well, a fact. Regardless of whether it's accurate or not, scum are afraid of me.

And scum, who would normally be afraid of me, have left me alive the whole game. What is it that they always tell conftown who live to see lylo? In 100% of the games we play. I preach it to other players consistently and constantly. "If you lived to see lylo, as conftown...there's a damn good reason you were brought." Usually, because you are expected to make the wrong call.

You are expected to vote town and hand scum the win.

I already went into the dilemma there--Reasonably Rational knows me and knows my doubt. My paranoia. They know my confidence is a facade. They know that I am vulnerable to appeals. They know that I am much, much, much weaker in my position on them than anyone else in the game possibly could, because they understand the way my mind works.

I've been dumping my thoughts to you in the dead thread for a while now. So you in the dead thread have gotten a good insight into my mind, the way it works, and how fucked up it is, how there's no cohesion involved at all and how the only consistent thing there is how inconsistent I am with my confidence, with my thoughts, with my stances and positions. You in the dead thread know that...

...But Cerb and Drixx don't need to have seen the dead thread to know these things, because they have the past game experience to already know this. They've seen it intimately, close up before. In this entire playerlist, beating even Titus, they probably understand my mind more than any other player does. So they know how much I am doubting my read on them right now.

...And the other side is that Shiro, if scum, wouldn't have a fucking clue about this. Shiro, if scum, would assume an easy victory. I kind-of don't think Shiro is scum. Shiro's response to my bravado not only looked genuine, but also looked town. But I digress.

What I'm getting at here, is...I honestly have forgotten how to play in lylo. I've played in plenty of lategames before. But I think I can count my town-lylos on a single hand. I have a reasonably good track record in making the right call in said lylos, but I don't remember how I made those good calls, what made them so magical. I just vaguely recall having done the work and...ended up being right.

Me being me, I turned to my past theory, and borrowed from other places.
I'm basically writing, of sorts, an agenda: things that I want to accomplish. I won't get them all done. (In particular, the research of other games--this game's gonna be hard enough!) Yet all the same, I'm thinking that these tips that I wrote years ago, and read years ago, might help me get another perspective on things. Paint things in a light I had almost forgotten about.

Many don't apply in lylo. Others were obsolete. Yet I managed to gather up a list, and it is basically the following (a bit of a garbled mess, since I didn't format it):

-Review my own iso to get oriented on past points.
-Ultimately, go with my instinct.
-Make sure it's instinct, not bias.
-Find the why behind my gut feelings.
-Go with what I actually believe;
Put forth NOTHING that I don't truly feel.

-Mindset: "What was that interaction for?"
Does it make sense to think that way?
-Circumstances:
How, why, when; the way of interactions.
-Encouraged wagons (esp. town) while off. (Scum)
-Frustration defending town from death. (Town)
-Frustration when fencesitting. (Town)
-Look for actions not matching words. (Scum)
-Analyze why a person was on/off of a wagon.
-Look for buddying towards a flipped scum. (Town)
(Not defending, buddying.)
-Look for buddying from scum towards unflipped. (Town)
-Look at lynched town players.
-Look at killed town players.
-Read to evidence.
-Keep things simple in pattern analysis.
-Present evidence before making conclusion.
-Ultimately, don't be too stressed;
Just make the call and let it stand.
-Look into past games of players:
Almost50, Shiro, RR, Drixx, Cerb, grapes.
-Really get to know them as players, how they operate.
-Speculate; don't assume.
-Motive: intent behind post;
The reasoning behind a push.
-Look for trends.
-Look for scum breaking the chain in town information.
-Look for town that were accurate,
But talked down by another player.
-Intent comes from strategies used.
Strategies come from objectives pursued.
Objectives pursued found from behaviors.
-Plans' qualities come from timing, deniability,
Opaqueness, certainty in correct reads/predictions,
And contingency plans covering bases.
-Scum pursue different objectives, hedging bets.
TOWN:
*Kill dangerous scum
*Safeguard identity/role/life of PRs
*Protect town
*Encourage town behavior
*Ensure good environment for town
*Avoid attracting bandwagons
*Convince players of their reads
*Pick up on valuable information
*Dispel misunderstandings
SCUM:
*Survive bandwagons
*Protect scumbuddies
*Out Power Roles
*Kill Power Roles
*Frame town
*Force town into making exploitable mistakes
*Ensure good environment for scum
*Set up future lynches
*Convince town players they're town
*Get compliance from a town player
*Manage scumbuddies effectively
*Survive
*Dismantle opposition

-Look for the time of inactivity in players:
Does any of it look like strategic lurking?
-Look for players making town not use energy efficiently
-Weigh the possibilities versus the probabilities
-Weigh BOTH sides of the issue equally;
Check both for town and scum in a player.
-Look for players testing potential wagons.
-Know/understand the fundamental drive behind actions.
-Look for recognition of town/scum players in players,
And them trying to convey this to others.
Look also for players manipulating others,
Such that they misread the mindset of others.
-Pattern recognition is huge in lylo; USE IT.
-Mindset/motive/intention is displayed via patterns.
-Look for consistent wrongness across the whole game.
-Look for consistent failures to advocate for scum death

-I'll need to skim proven townVtown fighting.
-I need to read the content of dead players on living.
-I should ask each player to summarize the game.
(Not their role. The game itself.)
-I should ask each player why they are town.
-I should ask each player why they are scum.
(Basically, to have them present all info possible.)

-Look at townblocs we've had this game:
How they formed and how they fell;
Why did they collapse and how solid were they?
-Look for whether they formed naturally or artificially;
Looked for members in the artificial ones,
And look for who dismantled the natural ones.

-(Also, note to self: make sure I ask the players to rank EVERY player's role, most to least, in terms of "If this role were scum, its use to disrupting town synergy", and why. This, for RR in particular.)
-(On that note, I need to eventually post my findings, especially my RR grievances, probably at...about one week into the day. My timeline here is to get a paraphrase of important stuff within half a week, get a response to the question above next, get them going on summarizing the game and casemaking each other, and finishing by posting my findings.)

-When all is said and done, everything I do is guesswork;
I need to actually go and...take that guess!

Some of these might be redundant and they're a bit scattered, but right now, I'm a bit braindead. I don't have the energy to organize them coherently at the moment. I intend to do a few things here:
Organize the above and constantly refer back to them.
Compile all of my past PMs where I've put my thoughts, and review them, considering the evidence there.
Go through the thread, keeping the above in mind.
With the above in mind, making notes as I go for anything important.

I'm not going to be able to do everything. I know that. I know that when everything is said and done, when I cast the game-deciding vote, I could have done more. But realistically, I want to do as much as possible so I can say I did everything humanly possible to make the right call.
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Post Post #1153 (ISO) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:39 am

Post by Varsoon »

This game almost has more posts in it than I have made in my entire time on the site.
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Post Post #1154 (ISO) » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:43 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

As of this post it is within 600 of my total as well ...
"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"

Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.
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Post Post #1155 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:14 pm

Post by Varsoon »

Spoiler: Mastin Amassin' Critical Mass
The good news is:
I managed to go through my PMs to the dead thread, and I've organized my thoughts.

The bad news is:
It's still a ton of work for me to do.

Here's what I've got:


EVIDENCE:
-Shiro voted DGB. Only possible scum on DGB.
-I held RR-Shadow as a possible scumteam.
-I also held Shiro-Shadow as a possible scumteam.
-If RR is scum, DGB lynch went through with no resistance.
Similarly so for SirCakez.

-I felt confident unbubbling Shiro was not a mistake.
-Shiro felt town for reasons. I wanted that townread to not be an error.
-Shiro's a lackluster poster, but can't be scum unless there are two (something I've held as false the entire time).
-Shiro's the only player with no reason to want me gone, yet every player also had reason to keep me around.
-The event Shiro triggered and the reason given were ridiculously town, and I had thought the same.
-Shiro's response to my bluff felt really, really town.
-Shiro has lurked most of the game.
-Am I okay actually losing to Shiro?
-Almost50 felt like town, but could've been scum staying out of the spotlight. (Doubtful.)
-Almost50's stubbornness and voting pattern doesn't look like scum.
-grapes has heavily pressured scum, but hasn't voted many of them. He did vote them at key times though, at ridiculously good times in fact.
-grapes was ridiculously town on the Shadow_step lynch day.
-grapes's event usage was town, but used immediately.
While looking like not something planned, it could've been triggered in advance with foreknowledge.
-Am I okay losing to grapes?
-I felt firm in grapes and Shiro being town.
-Almost50 I am okay losing to.

-RR's flavor fits as scum.
-RR's power fits as scum, and flavor-wise fits as scum.
-RR's flavor doesn't match well with town to me.
-RR's behavior DOES clash with what I know of them as town.
-My instinct and intuition point to RR as scum. Probabilities point to RR as the best bet.
-The timing of RR joining the SirCakez wagon, and their reasons for doing so look like scum. (Especially since they overstate their importance there.)
*They unvoted during a time where unvoting SirCakez had a realistic chance of saving him, and revoted him when it was clear he would not be saved.
-The game narrative matches with Reasonably Rational as scum. It does not match with Shiro as scum, nor with grapes as scum.
*To elaborate: the scum's actions have been, by and large, "smart". They have been 'on point'. They have worked as to prevent their team from being put in a losing position, every step of the way.
This does not match behaviorally-wise with what I'd expect of Shiro, nor of grapes.
It matches what I'd expect from Reasonably Rational.

-RR's positions have consistently been the stance most convenient for the scum. They protected DGB. They reversed their stance on Skybird, from nullish-town off of content to "never ever lynch" off of role, in spite of earlier saying "don't clear her off of role".
They protected TWIE, resisting his lynch, insisting we lynch farside. They protected Shadow_step, resisting his lynch: first preferring kraska, then rather egregiously, Creature with an incredibly scummy, opportunistic reason behind their vote at a very clear moment: Shadow_step was being wagoned, and RR's vote shifted momentum towards Creature.
They also kept Fuzzy from vigging Shadow_step, not only allowing him to live, but also preventing Fuzzy from being confirmed as town. Then, they had Fuzzy shoot farside, a player that was heavily scumreading RR, had extra votes, and was entirely immune to the scum's nightkill. Again, doing this prevented game resolution, in this case, resolving grapes/Almost50/RR/Fuzzy, the dilemma at the time.
Furthermore, their paranoia of the crystal gems and resistence to the auto-win plan and resistance to randomidget bubbling within the Almost50/RR duo as per "paranoia of a scum kill" all suggest scum.

-RR has, consistently, placed blame on others: Beachapalooza not catching scum was Titus's fault. Titus's death was farside's. Gem paranoia, Yume. Protecting TWIE, Titus/farside. kraska lynch, kraska. Creature lynch, Creature/farside. Fuzzy holding fire, Fuzzy. Fuzzy's shot, Fuzzy/Almost50/farside.
-RR has treated me like crap the entire game. Putting me down, ignoring me pointing these out, refusing to go with simple requests of mine, pretending the points here don't exist, pretending they have no attitude problem, arrogance beyond what I've ever seen from them ever in any capacity.

-RR has changed stances as convenient to them: grapes was seen as town and they treated grapes as town. Then, grapes became a possible lynch--and suddenly, a scumread formed. When grapes became an inconvenient lynch, back to town. When grapes's power potentially was breaking the game, they buttered up grapes, and when grapes was no longer an issue, they dropped this.
When I townread grapes, they did so. When I voted grapes, they scumread grapes. When Shiro was considered all-but-conftown, RR treated Shiro as town (focusing on Almost50), but with Shiro as the only possible target, suddenly Shiro's a hard-scumread as if that was always the case. When Almost50 was townread (and also, backing RR), Almost50 was their strongest townread. When Almost50 turned on them (and also became a lynch candidate), suddenly and inexplicably, RR's stance shifts where Almost50 is now scum.
When I wasn't someone they needed the help of, they pushed me away. Now that I'm the game-deciding vote, suddenly they're treating me a whole different way.

-RR had TWO egregious faults on the Creature lynch day mechanically, for a mechanics-based player such as themselves:
One, the issue of farside's roleblock compared to their own roleblock. Given the way their own roleblock worked, if they are town, they should have known better than what they did.
Two, the fact that they 'misread' the nature of farside's results, when she was very clear about her meaning. There was no guilty on Creature, yet they continued to insist there was even after farside multiple times corrected them.
-On the subject of farside's roleblock, why did she mention not blocking the scum's nightkill yet RR when claiming theirs not mention a similar detail?
Does that mean RR could shut down a scum member entirely, or does it mean that RR ommited a critical detail?
*Similarly, did they ever address farside having a roleblock when they also had one?
What was their stance on it? Did they ever try to catch or confirm farside as scum with knowledge of their own role? As town, they should have; as scum, the thought might not occur to them. (Though, this is a one-way tell. It could occur to them as scum; it couldn't NOT occur to them as town. I'm looking for absence of occuring, as that's a scumtell; it occuring is null.)

-RR should know I believe them being scum, yet acted otherwise. (Bad wording here, but the part of the game they discredited me.)
-RR has pushed me and been incredibly manipulative of the game's narrative.
-RR placed the entire game against me, the conftown, for the majority of the lategame.
-RR's inability to grasp my issue with them seems beyond reasonable doubt.
-RR looked for escape routes in terms of lynching,
And also made a lot of assumptions.
Their post looked preplanned, prepared in advanced and presented knowing the outcome of the night.
-I feel gut-wise that voting RR is the right call.
-A summary of RR is that they have acted in a way convenient to scum, then denied having done so.
-I need to ask: is lynching RR worth the risk?
-I don't think I'm okay losing to Reasonably Rational.

-Cerb posted some stuff which looked sincere. See if it actually had meaning or was just showmanship.
-Review 12075, 12076, and 12077 to see if they are still valid.
-Is my little voice actually telling me to not lynch RR, or is it something else?

-I've been REALLY adamant there aren't two scum left.
It doesn't make sense balance-wise (THREE third party wincons, plus FOUR third party players), mechanics-wise, or design-wise, with little to no justification flavor-wise.
It violates occam's razor.

-The scum having an extra member would overpower them, but the scumteam as they currently are IS still a bit weak.
RR's roleblock power gives the perfect answer to fill in the deficit: it allows for early disruption of town synergy, something the scumteam (short of their various kill powers) utterly lacks otherwise.

-RR showed extreme survivalism, insisting they need to live at every turn.
In contrast, Almost50 said he wanted to die.
*Furthermore, this insistence on living persisted even when the game should've been an autowin for the town.
-Shiro knows I've scumread RR,
-But RR knows I am prone to doubt. (And appeals, which is what they did.)



TO-DO LIST:
-Ask RR about their thoughts on YET ANOTHER third party wincon in play.
-Ask each player to rank all the remaining unconfirmed roles, most to least, in terms of, "If this role were scum, its use in disrupting town synergy", and why.

-Ask each player to summarize the game itself--not their role, the GAME.
-Ask each player why they are town.
-Ask each player why the other is scum.
*Basically, present all possible info.

-I need to review my own iso, and succinctly pick up all relevant points.
-If possible, review time of inactivity--is any time strategic?
-I need to put forth my evidence against RR at some point, and see their response to it.
-If possible, look into the past games of all players, and affirm how each operates.

CONCLUSIONS:
-Figure out what makes me feel this way.
-Look for someone encouraging wagons on town, especially while off said wagons. (Comes from scum.)
-Look for signs of frustration when defending town and/or fencesitting. (Town.)
-When rereading, look for buddying towards flipped scum (probably comes from town), but it must be buddying, NOT defending.
-Similarly, look for scum buddying towards unflipped players. (These both indicate town.)

-Look for how valuable a scum player was when pushed: town lynch the most dangerous; scum bus the least useful.
-Town protect PRs; scum out, discredit, marginalize, and kill PRs. Look for who did which.
-Town will also protect town more; scum will protect scum more. See if one is more true in a player.
-Town will try to convince others that their read is right; look for signs of this happening.
-Town will try to dispel misunderstandings, whereas scum will try to dismantle opposition entirely. Look for this vital difference.
-Scum will survive bandwagons, whereas town tend not to. Look for this.
-Scum will attempt to frame town, especially avoiding responsibility while doing so. Look for this.
-Scum attempt to force town to make mistakes which they can then exploit.
-Scum are survivalistic; look for that. Similarly, they'll focus on trying to convince a player they are town; look also for this.
-Scum try to get compliance from town, and will ask for permission. Town don't care. Look for this.
-Scum will attempt to handle scumbuddies, directing them to optimal positions and play. Look for evidence of this occuring.
-Scum will attempt to make the town waste energy. Look for this.
-Scum will test the waters. Look for this.
-Town will try to find town/scum, and convey it when they have done so;
Scum will attempt to manipulate others, such that they misread the mindset of one another.

-See why the lynched town were lynched. Review their points, and how valid they were.
-See why the killed town were nightkilled.
-Look for signs of a player breaking the chain in town information.
-Similarly, review the players who were known to be accurate: who talked them down? (Or, at least, attempted to.)

-Observe townblocs: how they formed/fell.
How solid were they? What caused their collapse?
Did they form naturally, or artificially?
Who dismantled them (especially natural ones)?
Who was present in the artificial ones? (Especially if absent from a natural one.)

-Look into the mindset of players, and see what their interactions were for--did it make sense to think that way?
-Look at the circumstances--how, why, and when someone did what they did, and the nature of the interactions.
*Timing is everything, as is accountability and thoroughness.
-Look into the motive of actions: what did this hope to accomplish as town? Does that make sense? What did this accomplish if scum? Which is simpler? Which is more likely?
*Basically, find the reasoning given and evaluate its validity.
-Figure out the intention of actions, by analyzing strategies used, what said objectives were, and how well their behavior supports them.
*What drove them to do this?
-Analyze why a player was, or wasn't, on a wagon.
-Find the player who most keeps their options open. (They're probably scum.)

-Cognitive dissonance (actions not matching words) will indicate scum, especially from a rational player.
-Use pattern recognition (look for trends in the data), and value the simple patterns highest.
*Mindset/motive/intention WILL show in said patterns.
-In analysis, speculate, but don't assume.
-Weigh the possibilities versus the probabilities, using said trends.
-Look for signs of consistent wrongness across the whole game,
ESPECIALLY consistent failures to advocate for scum death.
-Ultimately, I'm doing guesswork.
-Go with my instinct. (Not bias. Instinct.)
-Be okay with the call.
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Post Post #1156 (ISO) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:52 pm

Post by MathBlade »

So many words to say "I have analysis paralysis stamped on my role PM".

Love you Mastina <3
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1157 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:59 am

Post by Varsoon »

At least Mastin2 and Shiro are starting to realize the setup is balanced around how many town scum realistically has to eliminate.
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Post Post #1158 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:14 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

Did I miss RR cross-voting? I haven't been reading closely but I don't recall them doing it.
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Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.
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Post Post #1159 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:17 am

Post by Varsoon »

They didn't, as far as I am aware.
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Post Post #1160 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:08 am

Post by Titus »

Yeah, if Shiro just highlights a few basic posts about one of RR/Farside being scum and that I didn't trust RR with PoE.
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You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

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Post Post #1161 (ISO) » Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:23 pm

Post by Yume »

Hi, this myself as myself, I got unbanned, so I can post here now.

Anyway, back to Bismuth, I came here to contact Ame. Where u at, Ame?
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Post Post #1162 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:33 am

Post by Varsoon »

RR maybe just realized there's a hypothetical scenario where every single player in the game can win based on Pearl's role, but it'd take something like 1,300 days with no lynches and no kills.
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Post Post #1163 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:37 am

Post by Creature »

Btw, I still wonder if my result on randomidget was affected at some way.
Sigh
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Post Post #1164 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:11 am

Post by Varsoon »

I know one of the various night results was actually mod error.
:/
As in, someone should've been blocked but I thought they had increased priority for some reason.
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Post Post #1165 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:52 am

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1162, Varsoon wrote:RR maybe just realized there's a hypothetical scenario where every single player in the game can win based on Pearl's role, but it'd take something like 1,300 days with no lynches and no kills.
Can they just vote to go 1300 days in advance?
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1166 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:53 am

Post by Varsoon »

I'd force them to go through it every night because screw 'em.
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Post Post #1167 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:57 am

Post by MathBlade »

You realize that means you screw yourself and your future children into doing nothing but VCs for the rest of their lives XD And a few future generations right?

I see it now. Varsoon 314 posts an empty vote count again.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1168 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:59 am

Post by Varsoon »

It'd give me something to do in the background, a part of a daily routine.
But I doubt anyone would've pushed hard for that victory and everyone would've been complicit in it, so, ah, it's a joke wincon.
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Post Post #1169 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:29 am

Post by Varsoon »

Oh, hey, RR also caught the failsafe that I forgot that I put in there, where Pearl Points are only earned on days that end in a lynch.
Damn, I'm so smart.
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Post Post #1170 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:49 am

Post by Yume »

I declare Varsoon King of MafiaScum.
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No burden can break the unshakeable strength of my will

Mah best game

My alignment is what JJH says it is.
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Post Post #1171 (ISO) » Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:31 pm

Post by Skullduggery »

Image
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Post Post #1172 (ISO) » Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:42 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I cast mass hugs at level 20. Aka the Oprah spell!

Varsoon gets a hug! Skull gets a hug! You all get hugs!!!
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1173 (ISO) » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:49 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

In post 12456, Reasonably Rational wrote:If it's one scum, then it's Grapes or you.
Hopefully either Shiro pounces on this or Mastin notices as neither of these are possible single scum candidates due to bubbling ...
"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"

Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.
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Post Post #1174 (ISO) » Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:18 pm

Post by McMenno »

:shifty:

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